VP: tens or better chance of loss
In my last 10 sessions I have lost $1700 while wagering 33k
My life time results at that casino is -$4400, total wagered is 131k
Total betsize is 2$ (0.5$ per hand x 4 hands) full paytable
Quote: MangoJThe average hit rate of a royal flush in video poker is about 40k hands, right ? Unless you have at least 200k hands, all numbers given are not worth discussing.
His total numbers indicate 262k hands, but it's 4-play though.
Your current return percentage ist 96.6%, which would be nothing out of the ordinary for the typical 97.96% return table.
I estimate the standard deviation for 262k hands to be about $2500 (to be exact the return table would be needed, plus a lot of messy math for the 4 play) [Homer: hmmm, messy foreplay]
Your expected loss would be $2670, i.e. you are running about $1800 below expectation (assuming 97.96 return table). This is well within one SD and thus "completely normal". The probability of running this bad or worse after 262k hands is 23%.
If another return table, I will redo math...
Quote: tringlomaneOP said "full pay" which I assume pays 25/6/5 quads/boat/flush and returns 99.14%. Online casinos offer 99% video poker frequently.
oops, missed that. I might be an interesting comparison at least:
I am sticking with my 2500 SD estimate, the ballpark doesn't change much with the 5 extra coins on the quads.
However, the expected loss is now only $1100, so you are running $3300 below expectation. This is more than 1 SD down from expectation, your are running below average. The probability of running this bad or worse is 9.3%. (Statistically speaking, this is still nothing out of the ordinary, it is gonna happen to one in ten guys playing.)
Quote: Canyonerooops, missed that. I might be an interesting comparison at least:
I am sticking with my 2500 SD estimate, the ballpark doesn't change much with the 5 extra coins on the quads.
However, the expected loss is now only $1100, so you are running $3300 below expectation. This is more than 1 SD down from expectation, your are running below average. The probability of running this bad or worse is 9.3%. (Statistically speaking, this is still nothing out of the ordinary, it is gonna happen to one in ten guys playing.)
The fact that he is playing 4-play, the odds of him being down this much is higher than the basic normal distribution estimation. Unfortunately, I never figured out how to do variance calculations for multihand poker. I just know the variance is higher than single-play.
Quote: tringlomaneThe fact that he is playing 4-play, the odds of him being down this much is higher than the basic normal distribution estimation. Unfortunately, I never figured out how to do variance calculations for multihand poker. I just know the variance is higher than single-play.
I have taken that into account in my estimate. It is in the same ballpark though, as you can see here:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/video-poker/appendix/3/
(In our example, 1 point difference in SD is about 500 bucks, which doesn't change the numbers all that much.)
Quote: tringlomaneYeah, just using JoB variance numbers will be close enough. I still need to learn how though...blah.
I think you use a multiplier which is the square root of the number of hands.
Quote: tringlomaneHis total numbers indicate 262k hands, but it's 4-play though.
You have to consider the dealt hand effect. A flopped RF is 4 x RF's but comes once in about 650,000 hands.
Quote: thecesspitI think you use a multiplier which is the square root of the number of hands.
Nah, that's scaling standard deviation by number of hands played (which is useful to this problem, but not what I was talking about). I'm talking about determining the SD of 1 round of multihand video poker. The original poster is playing 4-handed and the variance of 1 round of 4 hands is different than playing 4 hands of a single play game since the multi-hand game is correlated by the cards originally dealt. The WOO site just spits out the answer for a few common games, and I have no easy idea where the numbers come from. Maybe they aren't easy to get.
Quote: tringlomaneThe fact that he is playing 4-play, the odds of him being down this much is higher than the basic normal distribution estimation. Unfortunately, I never figured out how to do variance calculations for multihand poker. I just know the variance is higher than single-play.
The variance is higher due to the covariance with the base hand.
However, if you ignore the dealt hand effect, the variance is quite low.
