Fantasy Football Probability

My friends are having an argument......

If a person is in three, 12 team fantasy football leagues in a season, what are the odds of making the superbowl in just one of the leagues.....1/6?

If so, what are the odds of making at least 1 superbowl, 3 years in a row, if a person were in 3 leagues each season?

This is probably so simple, but my brain is fried and I cannot wrap my head around it.


Thanks!

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Quote: sodawater

1- (5/6)^3 = 42.123% chance of making it to at least one super bowl.

42.1296%
Didn't the poster ask for "just one superbowl"?

Binomial probability: COMBIN(3;1) * (1/6)^1 * (5/6)^2 = 3 * (1/6) * (25/36) = 75/216 = 34.72%

Quote: sodawater

The chances then of making at least 1 super bowl, 3 years in a row, given the manager is in 3 leagues, is .42123^3 = 7.48 percent.

No. That is the probability of making all three. What you meant is 1 - (1-.421296)^3 = 80.62%

[EDIT: Wrong answer; see below.]

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Quote: haftown

what are the odds of making the superbowl in just one of the leagues.....

Quote: haftown

what are the odds of making at least 1 superbowl, 3 years in a row

Ambiguous.
3 years the same one? Or any one provided there is at least one each year?

Any way, I stand corrected. Thanks.