Vegas Turnaroud
January 12th, 2010 at 6:43:05 PM
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While I am optimistic that this means better times in the near future, one month is not enough data. Perhaps a couple of whales rolled in and lost their shirts.
On the flip side, during this recession, my action as a gambler went further because fewer people were willing to give the casino action. Maybe my comps will go down because of this. Sniff.
On the flip side, during this recession, my action as a gambler went further because fewer people were willing to give the casino action. Maybe my comps will go down because of this. Sniff.
January 12th, 2010 at 7:50:03 PM
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Quote: gamblerWhile I am optimistic that this means better times in the near future, one month is not enough data. Perhaps a couple of whales rolled in and lost their shirts.
On the flip side, during this recession, my action as a gambler went further because fewer people were willing to give the casino action. Maybe my comps will go down because of this. Sniff.
I agree 100% on both points. Besides a bad nationwide economy, the MGM/Harrah's near oligopoly on the Strip is bad for the town, and bad players, at least in my opinion. I really hope to not see Harrah's buy Planet Hollywood.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 12th, 2010 at 10:47:15 PM
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Quote: gamblerPerhaps a couple of whales rolled in and lost their shirts.
Terry Watanabe.
January 13th, 2010 at 4:21:33 AM
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Agreed.Quote: gamblerone month is not enough data.
>Perhaps a couple of whales rolled in and lost their shirts.
Perhaps. Or the actual day of the month that slot machines were emptied can have an effect. Or accounting entries for marker collections that spanned the monthly reporting periods.
Mesquite had casino closings and layoffs, so that market's figures would be skewed.
Overall, its good news and that is better than more bad news but its just a blip and its not a determined trend ... yet.
>Maybe my comps will go down because of this.
Probably not. The casinos tend to take a slightly longer term view of your value to them.
January 13th, 2010 at 5:01:56 AM
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That's part of it:Quote: gamblerPerhaps a couple of whales rolled in and lost their shirts.
"Part of the increase on the Strip came from the Pacquiao-Cotto fight at the MGM in the middle of the month, said Streshley. That sparked high-end play."
Here's a great closing comment:
"Streshley cautioned that "one month is not a trend.""
That kinda sums up my own reply.
I invented a few casino games. Info:
http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ —————————————————————————————————————
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
January 13th, 2010 at 7:15:21 AM
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Last year, late in May, I got a pre-tax rate of $15-$25 per night at IP. This year's rates for April and May are at $25-$30. I'd say that's the result of an increase in bookings.
Notable, too, the Mexicana airlines flight from Mexico City to Vegas went up steeply. Last year I paid just under $500 for it. This year it's above $600. Granted oil prices went up, but that alone doesn't explain the jump.
When the economy is bad, prices go down in an effort to keep as much market share as possible. When things improve prices go up to make more money. It's classic supply and demand. If more people want rooms in vegas than there are rooms, hotel prices will skyrocket.
AS to teh Harrah's/MGM dominance, there's much one person can do: start a blog, write to newspapers, leave comments in blogs, etc. More useful, don't patronize MGM and/or Harrah's properties (easily identifiable by their player's card). Go gamble Downtown, or to the Stratosphere, Casino Royale, Wynn/Encore, Venetian, etc.
Notable, too, the Mexicana airlines flight from Mexico City to Vegas went up steeply. Last year I paid just under $500 for it. This year it's above $600. Granted oil prices went up, but that alone doesn't explain the jump.
When the economy is bad, prices go down in an effort to keep as much market share as possible. When things improve prices go up to make more money. It's classic supply and demand. If more people want rooms in vegas than there are rooms, hotel prices will skyrocket.
AS to teh Harrah's/MGM dominance, there's much one person can do: start a blog, write to newspapers, leave comments in blogs, etc. More useful, don't patronize MGM and/or Harrah's properties (easily identifiable by their player's card). Go gamble Downtown, or to the Stratosphere, Casino Royale, Wynn/Encore, Venetian, etc.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
January 13th, 2010 at 9:05:55 AM
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The results are year over year and indicate that the economy is better two months ago then it was 14 months ago. By November 2008 the recession had fully hit and people had already overreacted to it so it's no big surprise to see the modest gains in vegas at this point in time.
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You want the truth! You can't handle the truth!
January 13th, 2010 at 9:08:42 AM
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Quote: Nareed
AS to teh Harrah's/MGM dominance, there's much one person can do: start a blog, write to newspapers, leave comments in blogs, etc. More useful, don't patronize MGM and/or Harrah's properties (easily identifiable by their player's card). Go gamble Downtown, or to the Stratosphere, Casino Royale, Wynn/Encore, Venetian, etc.
The article says what I heard elsewhere. Talked on LinkedIn with a guy from Venetian/Plazzo and he said bookings were up and casino credit wasier to get. So it might be a start.
As to Harrah's/MGM I agree. I don't play there and I think it is getting time for the NGCB to set a limit on properties one person or corporation can own to 2 major and 2 minor in the same market. Steve Wynn said it was good that TI will be "independent" now as well. Time to get back to more individual ownership!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
January 13th, 2010 at 9:46:23 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanAs to Harrah's/MGM I agree. I don't play there and I think it is getting time for the NGCB to set a limit on properties one person or corporation can own to 2 major and 2 minor in the same market. Steve Wynn said it was good that TI will be "independent" now as well. Time to get back to more individual ownership!
I really don't favor that kind of regulation. But pressuring the big chains to improve their standards, or even to sell their properties, is perfectly all right.
Now, one person not spending a dime on Harrah's/MGM properties won't have much impact. So what you want to do is reach as many gamblers and prospective gamblers as possible. A very good place to start is in travel guides online.
This will be hard because many of the properties in question have good hotels with good service (I got great service at IP, even if the rooms are subpar, but I dind't gamble there). But you can point out the shortcomings at the tables and slots, while also offering alternatives elsewhere on the strip, off strip and Downtown. That can have a big impact.
Another thing you can do is, in forums like this one, urge people to write to the offending companies about their gambling rules. If they get enough letters from former customers telling them why they don't gamble with them anymore, that will be useful.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
January 13th, 2010 at 11:22:19 AM
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What do you all think about TI going independent in terms of comps? Will an independent strip joint offer better or worse comps than a mega conglomerate?
January 13th, 2010 at 2:25:21 PM
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I really hope so. I am going to spend some time at TI next month and will give you my thoughts when I return from my trip.
January 13th, 2010 at 7:38:30 PM
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I favor any new blood on the Strip. It will only cause the casinos to compete harder for customers, which will be good for comps. A friend of mine is a low-level blackjack player and says the new ownership has been very generous with comps. I know that is very anecdotal, but it is the best I can do.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
January 14th, 2010 at 12:59:41 PM
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It is good news, but just barely.
Here are the actual numbers for Nov 2009 vs Nov 2008 (for the strip)
Baccarat went up $53.474 million
Blackjack went down $2.351 million
Rest of pit went down $5.709 million
Slots went down $9.033 million
Card games went down $239 thousand
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The revenue for November 2008 was $437.689 million. So the resultant change was increase in 8.26%, but the only positive number was baccarat, probably due to the Pacquiao-Cotto fight at Ceasars Palace. Baccarat more than doubled from November 2008.
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Baccarat numbers have been improving for the last 7 months and are now back to their pre-recession levels. Everything else is still dropping.
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The drop in other games was not as bad as the last two years, but it only means that revenue went back to what it was last November which was already very low numbers. But right now some good news sells newspapers.
Here are the actual numbers for Nov 2009 vs Nov 2008 (for the strip)
Baccarat went up $53.474 million
Blackjack went down $2.351 million
Rest of pit went down $5.709 million
Slots went down $9.033 million
Card games went down $239 thousand
===========================
The revenue for November 2008 was $437.689 million. So the resultant change was increase in 8.26%, but the only positive number was baccarat, probably due to the Pacquiao-Cotto fight at Ceasars Palace. Baccarat more than doubled from November 2008.
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Baccarat numbers have been improving for the last 7 months and are now back to their pre-recession levels. Everything else is still dropping.
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The drop in other games was not as bad as the last two years, but it only means that revenue went back to what it was last November which was already very low numbers. But right now some good news sells newspapers.
Last edited by: pacomartin on Jan 15, 2010
May 2nd, 2010 at 1:01:33 PM
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I thought I would revive this old thread from 4 months ago. It began with a newsarticle for last November which was the first month with a positive month/month change after 22 months of negative percentages. We've had three more months since this article with December being excellent in baccarat for New Year's Eve, January being -3.0% (fairly modest), and February being +33% for Chinese New Year's and Super Bowl.
The Wiz expressed his hope that Harrah's would not purchase Planet Hollywood. I pointed out that the recovery was entirely in baccarat, and not in anything else.
Have we hit bottom? I don't think so. I think the returns in March which will be announced in the next 5 days will be terrible. The reason is for the last several years March has been both the busiest month for visitors and the worst month for baccarat. There has been no significant movement in strip gaming revenue other than baccarat (although February did show some positive signs).
The Wiz expressed his hope that Harrah's would not purchase Planet Hollywood. I pointed out that the recovery was entirely in baccarat, and not in anything else.
Have we hit bottom? I don't think so. I think the returns in March which will be announced in the next 5 days will be terrible. The reason is for the last several years March has been both the busiest month for visitors and the worst month for baccarat. There has been no significant movement in strip gaming revenue other than baccarat (although February did show some positive signs).
May 2nd, 2010 at 1:07:40 PM
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Paco, do they ever break down "the rest of the pit" into individual games? For example, what percentage does craps or roulette bring in.
May 2nd, 2010 at 1:44:00 PM
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Not every game, but the principal ones. Here is percentages for the last 12 months, and percentages for February 2010 (Chinese New Year's and Super Bowl).
Baccarat only surpassed blackjack for a running yearly average in August of 2009. Blackjack had reigned supreme for decades.
These percentages are only for the Las Vegas Strip. Obviously outside of the strip blackjack is more important (but still declining). It does not include Poker which would barely change the percentages.
See my blog under the article entitled "Baccarat explosion" to see the historical data.
The games other than blackjack and baccarat have collectively had good months, but never two in a row. Blackjack has been level or fallen consistently every month except for a brief reprieve when the movie 21 was released in April of 2008 which temporarily boosted the game (slightly).
Baccarat only surpassed blackjack for a running yearly average in August of 2009. Blackjack had reigned supreme for decades.
These percentages are only for the Las Vegas Strip. Obviously outside of the strip blackjack is more important (but still declining). It does not include Poker which would barely change the percentages.
| GAME | Year | Feb-10 |
|---|---|---|
| BACCARAT | 40.1% | 57.9% |
| TWENTY-ONE | 25.2% | 18.5% |
| ROULETTE | 9.3% | 6.6% |
| CRAPS | 8.4% | 5.2% |
| OTHER GAMES | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| 3-CARD POKER | 3.3% | 2.3% |
| MINI-BACCARAT | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| SPORTS POOL | 2.3% | 1.8% |
| PAI GOW POKER | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| LET IT RIDE | 1.2% | 0.8% |
| RACE BOOK | 1.0% | 0.7% |
| PAI GOW | 0.5% | 0.7% |
| CARIBBEAN STUD | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| KENO | 0.3% | 0.2% |
| BINGO | 0.1% | 0.1% |
See my blog under the article entitled "Baccarat explosion" to see the historical data.
The games other than blackjack and baccarat have collectively had good months, but never two in a row. Blackjack has been level or fallen consistently every month except for a brief reprieve when the movie 21 was released in April of 2008 which temporarily boosted the game (slightly).
May 2nd, 2010 at 1:58:04 PM
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The amazing thing is that I bet the total number of Baccarat players is tiny compared to the total number of players at other games like Blackjack or Craps. It is interesting how several hundred high rollers and a few dozen whales can make such a huge difference.
May 2nd, 2010 at 2:16:30 PM
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Quote: gamblerThe amazing thing is that I bet the total number of Baccarat players is tiny compared to the total number of players at other games like Blackjack or Craps. It is interesting how several hundred high rollers and a few dozen whales can make such a huge difference.
These relatively small number of baccarat players are adding a great deal of instability to Vegas strip revenue. The players come and go so much that the monthly drop in baccarat has varied from $300 million to $1300 million over the last two years. The win percent has varied from 7% to 17%. There is very little the casino can do to control win percent since with such a small number of players it depends on luck. If the players play for a long time, like they do on holiday, the win percent goes up as the HA grinds on them.
Watanabe who lost over a $100 million was a significant percentage of Harrah's gaming revenue for 2007 which approached $2 billion that year. For one person to represent almost 5% is extraordinary.
Harrah's Vegas strip revenue (gaming only)
2009 : $1,476
2008 : $1,719
2007 : $1,987
2006 : $1,727
2005 : $1,055
2004 : $572
The growth in Macau since they passed the strip in 2006 is shown in the table. Macau gaming is 89% baccarat. The first quarter of 2010 broke the entire year 2009 for the strip.
| Year | US$billions |
|---|---|
| 2002 | $3.0 |
| 2003 | $3.9 |
| 2004 | $5.6 |
| 2005 | $6.1 |
| 2006 | $7.4 |
| 2007 | $10.8 |
| 2008 | $14.2 |
| 2009 | $15.5 |
Since many people are not aware of this instability they boosted MGM MIRAGE stock after the strong showing in February. See my article .
May 2nd, 2010 at 3:52:11 PM
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Quote: pacomartinMacau gaming is 89% baccarat.
I have not been to Macau since I was a small child. Are there tons of baccarat tables in the Macau casinos? What I mean is this revenue mainly from whales and high rollers, or does the average guy off the street with a small bankroll also play baccarat?
May 2nd, 2010 at 4:05:42 PM
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Quote: gamblerI have not been to Macau since I was a small child. Are there tons of baccarat tables in the Macau casinos? What I mean is this revenue mainly from whales and high rollers, or does the average guy off the street with a small bankroll also play baccarat?
They don't publish precise statistics on tables like Vegas, but they do differentiate between normal baccarat and VIP baccarat. I don't know all the differences, but the research indicated that with normal baccarat they limit the maximum bet for the entire table at 60,000 $HK which would mean that at a full table your bets are limited to roughly US$1000. I presume VIP baccarat is played in special rooms solely with markers instead of cash. I think that VIP baccarat is exclusively the junket operations.
In Vegas when they authorized the private rooms, it was specified that the minimum bet would always be $500. Steve Wynn persuaded the board to relax that requirement since many of his Asian gamblers seemed driven by a divine spirit wind, and would go from $5K bets to $50 bets. Steve felt, correctly, that someone should have a minimum bankroll to enter these rooms, but it was not a gaming commission right to dictate their individual betting strategy. Their role includes the right to visually look into these rooms at all times with CCTV.
May 2nd, 2010 at 6:58:14 PM
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Baccarat is king in Macau. It accounts for about half the tables in the main casino, and all of them in the high limit rooms. I don't know revenue statistics, but it wouldn't surprise if at least 90% came from baccarat.
Unlike Vegas, in Macau there will be a maximum "differential." That will be the maximum difference between banker and player bets. Let's say the differential is one million HK$. One player bets 100,000 HK$ on banker. Then you could bet 900,000 on banker or 1.1M on player. I've always thought that was a good idea.
Unlike Vegas, in Macau there will be a maximum "differential." That will be the maximum difference between banker and player bets. Let's say the differential is one million HK$. One player bets 100,000 HK$ on banker. Then you could bet 900,000 on banker or 1.1M on player. I've always thought that was a good idea.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
May 2nd, 2010 at 7:58:33 PM
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Quote: WizardBaccarat is king in Macau. It accounts for about half the tables in the main casino, and all of them in the high limit rooms. I don't know revenue statistics, but it wouldn't surprise if at least 90% came from baccarat.
Unlike Vegas, in Macau there will be a maximum "differential." That will be the maximum difference between banker and player bets. Let's say the differential is one million HK$. One player bets 100,000 HK$ on banker. Then you could bet 900,000 on banker or 1.1M on player. I've always thought that was a good idea.
Your way off base there with your guess of 90%. It was actually 89% in 2009. The website is www.dicj.gov.mo
So when the HK Tourist Guide says
The minimum bet on baccarat is $100. Maximum bets on baccarat are depending on the table. Maximum payout on any game of baccarat is $60,000 for the table.
are they really saying that the maximum differential is HK$60,000, but the individual bets may be higher than that amount?
Here is a link to forum for dealers discussing running a differential in a high limit baccarat game.
It actually sounds very complex. Not the mathematics of the differential which limits the house exposure, but the procedure by which you get the table to cooperate on their betting system.
May 3rd, 2010 at 6:46:57 AM
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N
Quote: pacomartin
GAME Year Feb-10 BACCARAT 40.1% 57.9% TWENTY-ONE 25.2% 18.5% ROULETTE 9.3% 6.6% CRAPS 8.4% 5.2% OTHER GAMES 3.5% 2.1% 3-CARD POKER 3.3% 2.3% MINI-BACCARAT 2.5% 1.4% SPORTS POOL 2.3% 1.8% PAI GOW POKER 2.2% 1.4% LET IT RIDE 1.2% 0.8% RACE BOOK 1.0% 0.7% PAI GOW 0.5% 0.7% CARIBBEAN STUD 0.3% 0.2% KENO 0.3% 0.2% BINGO 0.1% 0.1%
Pai Gow revenue was up 40%!!!!!! I blame the Wizard for this as he is probably single handedly responsible for teaching us the game!
May 3rd, 2010 at 7:21:51 AM
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You seem to have misinterpreted the chart. The label "year" was for 12 months from March 1,2009 until February 28, 2010. The column labeled February 2010 was just for the month of February.
March data will be released later this week.
PAI GOW was high in percentage in February because it was Chinese New Year's and there were a lot of Asians in town. Pit revenue was $354 million in Feb 2010, buoyed by a record breaking $205 million in baccarat revenue. An average month for the year was $235 million in pit revenue.
March data will be released later this week.
PAI GOW was high in percentage in February because it was Chinese New Year's and there were a lot of Asians in town. Pit revenue was $354 million in Feb 2010, buoyed by a record breaking $205 million in baccarat revenue. An average month for the year was $235 million in pit revenue.
May 3rd, 2010 at 8:45:36 AM
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Quote: pacomartinYou seem to have misinterpreted the chart. The label "year" was for 12 months from March 1,2009 until February 28, 2010. The column labeled February 2010 was just for the month of February.
March data will be released later this week.
PAI GOW was high in percentage in February because it was Chinese New Year's and there were a lot of Asians in town. Pit revenue was $354 million in Feb 2010, buoyed by a record breaking $205 million in baccarat revenue. An average month for the year was $235 million in pit revenue.
Must...work...on...humor...coming through...posts...gassssssp!
