joe
joe
Joined: Dec 6, 2011
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January 4th, 2012 at 10:07:03 AM permalink
Why are 4, 5, and 6 bust cards when 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 are low cards, and why if 7, 8, and 9 are netural cards, 9s are included with the 10 cards and aces?
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
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January 4th, 2012 at 10:34:34 AM permalink
There are no bust cards. The dealer has a better than 50% chance of making his hand with any up card.

It sounds like you are referring to the Hi-Lo count, but you seem to be contradicting yourself. If 9s are neutral they are not included with the 10s and aces. If I'm missing something please clarify.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
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January 4th, 2012 at 11:02:22 AM permalink
I second the response: What?
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it
joe
joe
Joined: Dec 6, 2011
  • Threads: 8
  • Posts: 12
January 4th, 2012 at 1:49:38 PM permalink
I was referring to Hi-Lo. I was reading an article that I don't know but believe was referencing bust out rates that may explain the ommission of 2 and 3s. I was looking for a way to estimate if a deck in play was player friendly without having to count it immediately after the burn card and make a few changes to the basic strategy to stand when the chances of busting are greater than the dealer's.

Dealer's Upcard Bust-Out Rate Player's Hand Value Bust-Out Rate
2 35.30% 12 31%
3 37.56% 13 39%
4 40.28% 14 56%
5 42.89% 15 58%
6 42.08% 16 62%
7 25.99% 17 69%
8 23.86% 18 77%
9 23.34% 19 85%
10 21.43% 20 92%
Ace 11.65%
1BB
1BB
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
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January 4th, 2012 at 2:27:43 PM permalink
How many decks are you playing,Joe?
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
dwheatley
dwheatley
Joined: Nov 16, 2009
  • Threads: 25
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January 4th, 2012 at 4:29:17 PM permalink
I think we can assume it's a 6-8 deck shoe for what he's looking for.

There is no practical way to estimate the bust-out rate for any particular up-card after just a few hands - there are simply not enough sample points. Just jumping in to count (leaving the unseen cards as unseen) would be much more effective.
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it

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