andysif
andysif
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August 8th, 2011 at 7:57:56 PM permalink


You probably don't read Chinese but i think it's not too hard to get the idea from the picture.

You bet on a rank and if a card of that rank shows up (doesn't matter it's banker or player), you win:
1 card 1:1
2 cards 1:3
3 cards 1:20
4 cards 1:40
5 cards 1:60
6 cards 1:100

Assuming average 5 cards per hand, and just with the 1:1 payout, I worked out that the player had an advantage when any rank's concentration reach 13%.

My question is, assuming 6 or 8 decks, how often would you see a rank reaching 13% concentration?
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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August 9th, 2011 at 5:26:34 AM permalink
You can't just consider the average number of cards. You need to think about WHICH cards, when the player and banker both have two of them, will draw another card, or both draw a card.

I.E. Only if both player and banker are holding two aces, twos, sixes, sevens or tens/faces will you see a fifth card that could possibly win you the 1:60 or 1:100 payout. That limits the number of opportunities you'll have for the big money.

And for this side bet, faces must be the same rank to qualify.



At least that's the way I see it.

What if player and banker hold different pairs? What if both end up with different sets?
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
Wizard
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Wizard
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August 9th, 2011 at 12:04:31 PM permalink
Ask and ye shall receive. Check out my analysis of the Matching Dragon. Comments, questions, suggestions?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Alan
Alan
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August 9th, 2011 at 12:10:55 PM permalink
Looks good to me Wiz. I don't do math, so I trust your calculations.
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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August 9th, 2011 at 12:38:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Ask and ye shall receive. Check out my analysis of the Matching Dragon. Comments, questions, suggestions?

Well, since you asked.

Mind you, these are nit-picks....

For the combos chart, the rows go from A thru K as they should. You gotta fix a couple row headings for the other charts.

Columns 5 & 6 for rows 3, 4, 8 & 9 would be blank (or a hyphen) in ALL the charts.

Why not put in the photo of the rule card?
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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August 9th, 2011 at 12:45:29 PM permalink
BTW: It occurs to me that when I wrote my first reply above, I did not realize that this is 13 separate side bets. I mistakenly thought that it was a single side bet that doesn't pay unless there is at least one duplication.

In fact, I still didn't realize that until after I posted my second reply above.

Perhaps that need to be made more clear?

Then again, maybe I'm just thick-skulled about it....
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁 Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition. 🤗
rudeboyoi
rudeboyoi
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August 9th, 2011 at 12:49:38 PM permalink
id like to see the layout of this sidebet on the table.
Wizard
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Wizard
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August 9th, 2011 at 2:00:58 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

BTW: It occurs to me that when I wrote my first reply above, I did not realize that this is 13 separate side bets.



I did say it was 13 separate bets, but just made some edits to hopefully avoid others having the same confusion.

Quote: rudeboyoi

id like to see the layout of this sidebet on the table.



Sorry, all I know about it is the first post in this thread. I had the sign translated, but it said what the OP said it said.

On a separate note, when I view this page in Google Chrome some of the probabilities are formatted to look like phone numbers. In particular, those starting with 0.0041. If I click on them Skype will call the numbers. Does anyone know how to make Chrome not interpret the number as a phone number?
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
andysif
andysif
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August 9th, 2011 at 8:23:59 PM permalink
From what i heard there is one table in old Lisboa that offers this.

I arrived at an average 5-card hand from The Wizard's page, and just rounded it up.
"In a six-deck the average number of player cards is 2.503332474, banker cards is 2.435277628, and total cards is 4.93861010"

Then I do a (very) rough calculation (0.5) ^ (1/5) = 0.87, meaning the chance that the cards you didn't pick showing up 5 times in a row is less than 50% if the concentration is less than 87%, i.e. the player will have an advantage when any rank reaches 13% or more.

I do realize this 13% is overstated because:
1. the 2 - 6 cards payout is assumed to be just 1:1 in the calculation
2. each unfavorable card drawn will increase the advantage a little bit more.

Now the question is, how likely is it that any rank would reach 13%? With 6 decks, that is like drawing 128 cards out of 312 without one particular rank showing up. Seems quite remote. But with 1 deck, it is like drawing 22 cards out of 52, but remember, you can always draw the first 12 cards without seeing a particular rank, so it doesn't seem to be quite as remote.
dwheatley
dwheatley
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August 9th, 2011 at 8:42:27 PM permalink
I can picture a simulation that would test how countable this was. Too bad I'm busy with other things, and live nowhere near Macau; I would really like to give this a go
Wisdom is the quality that keeps you out of situations where you would otherwise need it

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