Odds of throwing away W2G worthy hands playing VP
July 16th, 2024 at 2:40:49 PM
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What are the adjusted odds for throwing away any hand that will cause a jackpot.
Say you play Jacks or better optimal strategy 10 hand 25c denom on an ultimate X machine. Paytable is 7/5. (Odds being 96.83%)
If you’re dealt pat quads normally you wont have a handpay but what if you have large multipliers from a previous hand that now cause a jackpot if you hold all 4. What is the adjusted odds if you throw away almost anything that likely can cause a jackpot? This includes any dealt 4 to a royal with multipliers. Any pat quads with multipliers over 5x. Etc.
Say you play Jacks or better optimal strategy 10 hand 25c denom on an ultimate X machine. Paytable is 7/5. (Odds being 96.83%)
If you’re dealt pat quads normally you wont have a handpay but what if you have large multipliers from a previous hand that now cause a jackpot if you hold all 4. What is the adjusted odds if you throw away almost anything that likely can cause a jackpot? This includes any dealt 4 to a royal with multipliers. Any pat quads with multipliers over 5x. Etc.
July 16th, 2024 at 3:30:47 PM
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Quote: ParanoiaWhat are the adjusted odds for throwing away any hand that will cause a jackpot.
Say you play Jacks or better optimal strategy 10 hand 25c denom on an ultimate X machine. Paytable is 7/5. (Odds being 96.83%)
If you’re dealt pat quads normally you wont have a handpay but what if you have large multipliers from a previous hand that now cause a jackpot if you hold all 4. What is the adjusted odds if you throw away almost anything that likely can cause a jackpot? This includes any dealt 4 to a royal with multipliers. Any pat quads with multipliers over 5x. Etc.
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Asking this question is a sign of…..
PARANOIA.
July 16th, 2024 at 3:33:34 PM
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Quote: ParanoiaWhat are the adjusted odds for throwing away any hand that will cause a jackpot.
Say you play Jacks or better optimal strategy 10 hand 25c denom on an ultimate X machine. Paytable is 7/5. (Odds being 96.83%)
If you’re dealt pat quads normally you wont have a handpay but what if you have large multipliers from a previous hand that now cause a jackpot if you hold all 4. What is the adjusted odds if you throw away almost anything that likely can cause a jackpot? This includes any dealt 4 to a royal with multipliers. Any pat quads with multipliers over 5x. Etc.
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Wow, the casino is going to love you.
ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
July 16th, 2024 at 4:33:19 PM
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Quote: SOOPOOQuote: ParanoiaWhat are the adjusted odds for throwing away any hand that will cause a jackpot.
Say you play Jacks or better optimal strategy 10 hand 25c denom on an ultimate X machine. Paytable is 7/5. (Odds being 96.83%)
If you’re dealt pat quads normally you wont have a handpay but what if you have large multipliers from a previous hand that now cause a jackpot if you hold all 4. What is the adjusted odds if you throw away almost anything that likely can cause a jackpot? This includes any dealt 4 to a royal with multipliers. Any pat quads with multipliers over 5x. Etc.
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Asking this question is a sign of…..
PARANOIA.
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Most likely he is playing where he is trespassed and doesn't want to trigger a W2-G
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
July 16th, 2024 at 5:22:39 PM
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Oz: Chicken Dinner
July 16th, 2024 at 5:43:38 PM
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Quote: ParanoiaOz: Chicken Dinner
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Why don't you just change your name? For about $300 it is a simple solution.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 16th, 2024 at 5:52:31 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: ParanoiaOz: Chicken Dinner
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Why don't you just change your name? For about $300 it is a simple solution.
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From what I understand that doesn't work anymore. They scan ID and any name change will link back to your real name.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
July 16th, 2024 at 6:03:02 PM
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Quote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: ParanoiaOz: Chicken Dinner
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Why don't you just change your name? For about $300 it is a simple solution.
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From what I understand that doesn't work anymore. They scan ID and any name change will link back to your real name.
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I don't know of any casinos that have that capability. Obviously the government does but I really don't think casinos do.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 17th, 2024 at 6:22:55 AM
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Quote: ParanoiaWhat are the adjusted odds for throwing away any hand that will cause a jackpot.
Say you play Jacks or better optimal strategy 10 hand 25c denom on an ultimate X machine. Paytable is 7/5. (Odds being 96.83%)
If you’re dealt pat quads normally you wont have a handpay but what if you have large multipliers from a previous hand that now cause a jackpot if you hold all 4. What is the adjusted odds if you throw away almost anything that likely can cause a jackpot? This includes any dealt 4 to a royal with multipliers. Any pat quads with multipliers over 5x. Etc.
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Video poker doesn't offer odds. I assume you mean return to player (RTP) or EV.
It chose a simpler question to answer since I don't want to write a lot of code regarding every possible multiplier. What if you try to avoid all royal draws? This means you will never hold a singleton like Ah unless you are discarding the Th. You will never draw 5 cards unless you have thrown away one royal card of each suit.
Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
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Royal 800.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0001052 9503.85 0.5261%
Quads 25.00 0.0023255 430.016 5.8137%
Full_House 9.00 0.0113262 88.2912 10.1935%
Flush 6.00 0.0141030 70.9067 8.4618%
Straight 4.00 0.0131602 75.9869 5.2641%
Trips 3.00 0.0724746 13.7979 21.7424%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.1258020 7.94900 25.1604%
JOB 1.00 0.1895572 5.27545 18.9557%
Nada 0.00 0.5711461 1.75087 0.0000%
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1.0000000 96.1178%
Compare this to the normal JoB strategy.
Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
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Royal 800.00 0.0000248 40390.5 1.9807%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0001093 9148.36 0.5465%
Quads 25.00 0.0023625 423.272 5.9064%
Full_House 9.00 0.0115122 86.8643 10.3610%
Flush 6.00 0.0110145 90.7893 6.6087%
Straight 4.00 0.0112294 89.0522 4.4917%
Trips 3.00 0.0744487 13.4320 22.3346%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.1292789 7.73521 25.8558%
JOB 1.00 0.2145850 4.66016 21.4585%
Nada 0.00 0.5454347 1.83340 0.0000%
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1.0000000 99.5439%
Trying to avoid any draw that could result in quads:
Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
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Royal 800.00 0.0000218 45876.4 1.7438%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0001432 6982.35 0.7161%
Quads 25.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Full_House 9.00 0.0043000 232.559 3.8700%
Flush 6.00 0.0171175 58.4198 10.2705%
Straight 4.00 0.0157101 63.6534 6.2840%
Trips 3.00 0.0192667 51.9031 5.7800%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.1013360 9.86816 20.2672%
JOB 1.00 0.1869447 5.34917 18.6945%
Nada 0.00 0.6551601 1.52634 0.0000%
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1.0000000 67.6260%
You still get a lot of two pairs because you hold all of these and you hold pairs + two kickers to prevent getting quads. Your RTP from trips and full houses is drastically reduced and the RTP from quads is 0%.
These results don't directly answer your question. What fraction of the time will these drastic rules be needed to avoid a handpay at all costs?
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
July 17th, 2024 at 6:32:43 AM
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If you use a perfect jackpot-avoidance strategy, you could play JoB at $50 per hand and never get a handpay.
Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
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Royal 800.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Quads 25.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Full_House 9.00 0.0042939 232.889 3.8645%
Flush 6.00 0.0148709 67.2454 8.9225%
Straight 4.00 0.0159696 62.6188 6.3879%
Trips 3.00 0.0197822 50.5504 5.9347%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.1033461 9.67623 20.6692%
JOB 1.00 0.1883716 5.30866 18.8372%
Nada 0.00 0.6533657 1.53054 0.0000%
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1.0000000 64.6159%
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
July 17th, 2024 at 8:30:21 AM
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Just play $1 video poker and bet 4 coins
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
July 17th, 2024 at 11:05:48 AM
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Thank you for the input. Appreciate it Mental.
Though it’s clear figuring out the UX Variable makes it very difficult.
Though it’s clear figuring out the UX Variable makes it very difficult.
July 17th, 2024 at 1:56:38 PM
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Quote: ParanoiaThank you for the input. Appreciate it Mental.
Though it’s clear figuring out the UX Variable makes it very difficult.
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The probability of being dealt quads is 624 / 2,598,960 = 0.024%. This is obviously the only case where you are certain to get a tax form if the multiplier is high enough. Trips are dealt 2.1128% of the time. One pair 42.2569% of the time.
My calculation assumes that you never take a risk that you will end up with quads. You seem to be willing to take a small risk. How small? I assume that you are going to hold pairs with a big multiplier, but maybe not.
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
July 17th, 2024 at 3:17:15 PM
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Quote: MentalIf you use a perfect jackpot-avoidance strategy, you could play JoB at $50 per hand and never get a handpay.
Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
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Royal 800.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Quads 25.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Full_House 9.00 0.0042939 232.889 3.8645%
Flush 6.00 0.0148709 67.2454 8.9225%
Straight 4.00 0.0159696 62.6188 6.3879%
Trips 3.00 0.0197822 50.5504 5.9347%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.1033461 9.67623 20.6692%
JOB 1.00 0.1883716 5.30866 18.8372%
Nada 0.00 0.6533657 1.53054 0.0000%
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1.0000000 64.6159%
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Could you explain that? it doesn't make sense to me. A dealt Royal Flush would automatically go into a handpay scenario and it won't let you throw it away.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 17th, 2024 at 3:51:34 PM
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My program lets you throw away a royal. I don't know that auto-hold is a universal feature in the real world.Quote: DRichQuote: MentalIf you use a perfect jackpot-avoidance strategy, you could play JoB at $50 per hand and never get a handpay.
Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
------------------------------------------------------
Royal 800.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Quads 25.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Full_House 9.00 0.0042939 232.889 3.8645%
Flush 6.00 0.0148709 67.2454 8.9225%
Straight 4.00 0.0159696 62.6188 6.3879%
Trips 3.00 0.0197822 50.5504 5.9347%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.1033461 9.67623 20.6692%
JOB 1.00 0.1883716 5.30866 18.8372%
Nada 0.00 0.6533657 1.53054 0.0000%
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1.0000000 64.6159%
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Could you explain that? it doesn't make sense to me. A dealt Royal Flush would automatically go into a handpay scenario and it won't let you throw it away.
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Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
July 17th, 2024 at 4:01:13 PM
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Quote: DRichQuote: MentalIf you use a perfect jackpot-avoidance strategy, you could play JoB at $50 per hand and never get a handpay.
Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
------------------------------------------------------
Royal 800.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Quads 25.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Full_House 9.00 0.0042939 232.889 3.8645%
Flush 6.00 0.0148709 67.2454 8.9225%
Straight 4.00 0.0159696 62.6188 6.3879%
Trips 3.00 0.0197822 50.5504 5.9347%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.1033461 9.67623 20.6692%
JOB 1.00 0.1883716 5.30866 18.8372%
Nada 0.00 0.6533657 1.53054 0.0000%
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1.0000000 64.6159%
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Could you explain that? it doesn't make sense to me. A dealt Royal Flush would automatically go into a handpay scenario and it won't let you throw it away.
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Is that true for every VP J or B game?
July 17th, 2024 at 4:08:37 PM
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Quote: MentalMy program lets you throw away a royal. I don't know that auto-hold is a universal feature in the real world.Quote: DRichQuote: MentalIf you use a perfect jackpot-avoidance strategy, you could play JoB at $50 per hand and never get a handpay.
Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
------------------------------------------------------
Royal 800.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Quads 25.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Full_House 9.00 0.0042939 232.889 3.8645%
Flush 6.00 0.0148709 67.2454 8.9225%
Straight 4.00 0.0159696 62.6188 6.3879%
Trips 3.00 0.0197822 50.5504 5.9347%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.1033461 9.67623 20.6692%
JOB 1.00 0.1883716 5.30866 18.8372%
Nada 0.00 0.6533657 1.53054 0.0000%
------------------------------------------------------
1.0000000 64.6159%
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Could you explain that? it doesn't make sense to me. A dealt Royal Flush would automatically go into a handpay scenario and it won't let you throw it away.
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I'm sure there are some machines in Serbia that may allow you to throw it away but all the the regulated machines in the U.S. I believe autohold for the top jackpot (not just Royals).
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 17th, 2024 at 4:52:16 PM
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Okay! If you use a perfect jackpot-avoidance strategy, you could play JoB at $50 per hand and only get a handpay for a dealt RF every 649,740 hands on average. This is $32M in coin in.
I have been dealt a $40K Royal on a $50 bet.
Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
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Royal 800.00 0.0000015 649740. 0.1231%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Quads 25.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Full_House 9.00 0.0055018 181.759 4.9516%
Flush 6.00 0.0165012 60.6016 9.9007%
Straight 4.00 0.0193109 51.7843 7.7243%
Trips 3.00 0.0396480 25.2219 11.8944%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.0983774 10.1649 19.6755%
JOB 1.00 0.1829978 5.46455 18.2998%
Nada 0.00 0.6376614 1.56823 0.0000%
------------------------------------------------------
1.0000000 73.1559%
Gambling is a math contest where the score is tracked in dollars. Try not to get a negative score.
July 17th, 2024 at 6:14:14 PM
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Quote: MentalOkay! If you use a perfect jackpot-avoidance strategy, you could play JoB at $50 per hand and only get a handpay for a dealt RF every 649,740 hands on average. This is $32M in coin in.
I have been dealt a $40K Royal on a $50 bet.Hand Name Payout Probability Cycle Return %
------------------------------------------------------
Royal 800.00 0.0000015 649740. 0.1231%
Str_Flush 50.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Quads 25.00 0.0000000 inf 0.0000%
Full_House 9.00 0.0055018 181.759 4.9516%
Flush 6.00 0.0165012 60.6016 9.9007%
Straight 4.00 0.0193109 51.7843 7.7243%
Trips 3.00 0.0396480 25.2219 11.8944%
Two_Pair 2.00 0.0983774 10.1649 19.6755%
JOB 1.00 0.1829978 5.46455 18.2998%
Nada 0.00 0.6376614 1.56823 0.0000%
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1.0000000 73.1559%
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I was dealt one once also on a $50 bet but mine paid 1000-1 for a $50k jackpot,
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
July 18th, 2024 at 10:23:44 AM
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Quote: DRichQuote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: ParanoiaOz: Chicken Dinner
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Why don't you just change your name? For about $300 it is a simple solution.
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From what I understand that doesn't work anymore. They scan ID and any name change will link back to your real name.
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I don't know of any casinos that have that capability. Obviously the government does but I really don't think casinos do.
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Moot since I am not 100% certain myself HOWEVER since a name change does not affect a SSN change for obvious reasons, as soon as he won a W2-G on his new assumed name he would be in most likely the same straits.
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
July 18th, 2024 at 2:16:44 PM
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(Clipped)
@Paranoia:
I’m wondering whether your OP is a hypothetical question or not… If you are truly planning to play under the radar, then I’m assuming you aren’t using a card either, so taking advantage of promotions is out as well as being paid a jackpot… If you somehow have an advantage otherwise (and I realize you haven’t stated that you do), why not play at a lower denomination? I would imagine that nickel and dime VP can’t be as bad as the horrendous returns of playing quarters the way that Mental has calculated for you…!
Quote: darkozMost likely he is playing where he is trespassed and doesn't want to trigger a W2-G
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Quote: ParanoiaOz: Chicken Dinner
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@Paranoia:
I’m wondering whether your OP is a hypothetical question or not… If you are truly planning to play under the radar, then I’m assuming you aren’t using a card either, so taking advantage of promotions is out as well as being paid a jackpot… If you somehow have an advantage otherwise (and I realize you haven’t stated that you do), why not play at a lower denomination? I would imagine that nickel and dime VP can’t be as bad as the horrendous returns of playing quarters the way that Mental has calculated for you…!
It’s a dog eat dog world.
…Or maybe it’s the other way around!
July 18th, 2024 at 2:32:56 PM
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Quote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: darkozQuote: DRichQuote: ParanoiaOz: Chicken Dinner
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Why don't you just change your name? For about $300 it is a simple solution.
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From what I understand that doesn't work anymore. They scan ID and any name change will link back to your real name.
link to original post
I don't know of any casinos that have that capability. Obviously the government does but I really don't think casinos do.
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Moot since I am not 100% certain myself HOWEVER since a name change does not affect a SSN change for obvious reasons, as soon as he won a W2-G on his new assumed name he would be in most likely the same straits.
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The casino would not associate them They just compare the name to the banned and trespassed list, they would have zero reason to cross reference by SS#.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
