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TheGambler31
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May 8th, 2024 at 10:08:46 PM permalink
Hello, a new feature will be introduced in Blackjack or Pontoon, allowing players the choice to stay even when they have less than 12 points. This addition creates a disadvantage for players as they lose the opportunity to potentially beat the house by drawing one card without risking going bust. However, it could also beneficial for skilled players adept at card counting. If this feature is implemented in a game using a continuous shuffle shoe with 5 decks, how would one calculate the increased house edge resulting from it?
Deucekies
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May 8th, 2024 at 10:20:56 PM permalink
Huh? The option to stay on less than twelve? They didn't have that option before?
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TheGambler31
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May 8th, 2024 at 11:28:00 PM permalink
Yes, here in the Philippines, and Asian Cruise ships I've been before, players must draw on 11 or below.
charliepatrick
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May 9th, 2024 at 12:52:26 AM permalink
Even with a regular shoe the only case I can think of is if you knew nearly every card left in the deck was a picture or Ace and so hitting something like hard 5 would be useless. The logic would be standing you enable another hand to be dealt which could be a Blackjack. However a better logic would be to double. However suppose you couldn't DDAS, this seems like a very rare situation on shoe, and impossible with a CSM.
Obviously if you somehow knew the next card was a 10 then it might be better to leave it for the dealer.
TheGambler31
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May 9th, 2024 at 4:02:52 AM permalink
I understand your point and appreciate your insights. Card counting with a continuous shuffle machine indeed has minimal impact.
However, I'm still interested in discovering the potential increase in the house edge or how to calculate it if players were allowed to stay on 11 or below, which seems difficult to find information on online.

Interestingly, Deucekies was surprised to learn that this option isn't available here. I'm curious if most casinos already offer it by default. If that's the case, it would likely mean it's already factored into Mr. Wizard's Blackjack calculator.
unJon
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May 9th, 2024 at 4:18:23 AM permalink
House edge calculations assume basic strategy play. Basic strategy never has the player stand with less than 12, therefore this rule has no impact on the house edge.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
charliepatrick
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May 9th, 2024 at 4:20:39 AM permalink
I can only assume most of the calculators only look at the current hand and would not factor the effect of working through the shoe. Personally I use recursion and look at the result of standing versus the various options of hitting/doubling/splitting etc. On occasions, e.g. if there were only 10s left, it wouldn't matter whether you hit or stood on a hard 5 (technically you're either always going to win or always lose, so you'd either double or not). The code could have something like if hit>stand best_so_far=hit; thus with equal chances it's how the code was written which one it would pick.

I suspect most of the cases there would be some low cards around, so you might as well hit hard 5 just in case you get a small card and then a 10 (unless double was still a better option).

Thus I sense the calculator would never find an advantage in standing on hands such as hard 5.
TheGambler31
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May 9th, 2024 at 5:09:37 AM permalink
@unJon I suppose this explains why it's not discussed in any forums previously. Players typically wouldn't choose to stay on 11 or below since there's a chance of improving their hand without going over 21.
The only time they might opt to stay is when they've been playing several boxes at the same hand and decide to "sacrifice or use the option" if they believe the next card would disadvantage the house.
I would like to know if the option to stay on 11 or below is offered by default in other casinos.
DRich
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May 9th, 2024 at 6:52:29 AM permalink
Quote: TheGambler31


I would like to know if the option to stay on 11 or below is offered by default in other casinos.



I am not aware of a single casino in Nevada that forces you to hit on any total.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
Mental
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charliepatrick
May 9th, 2024 at 6:57:45 AM permalink
Quote: TheGambler31

@unJon I suppose this explains why it's not discussed in any forums previously. Players typically wouldn't choose to stay on 11 or below since there's a chance of improving their hand without going over 21.
The only time they might opt to stay is when they've been playing several boxes at the same hand and decide to "sacrifice or use the option" if they believe the next card would disadvantage the house.
I would like to know if the option to stay on 11 or below is offered by default in other casinos.
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I don't understand the premise. If you know the exact composition of the stub, but you do not know the order of the cards (shuffle tracking), then you cannot steer a bad card to the dealer. You won't even know the exact dealer down card, so you often won't even know if the dealer is going to take a card - just the probabilities. These probabilities don't change if you take a card.

Let us say that the rules allow you to take a hit card, but have it dealt face down until the game is over. Are the dealers outcome probabilities changed one iota? Let us say there are 10 unseen cards in a single-deck game. Now, there are still 10 unseen cards. Peeking at the card can only be an advantage for you. It cannot change the dealers probabilities.

As charliepatrick alludes to, the only reason you would not hit is to increase the chances of getting another hand in. In order to find a advantageous strategy change, you have to tell us how many decks, how many unseen cards remain, what is the exact composition of those cards, and where the cut card is. The question doesn't even make sense unless you are talking about one or two decks and deep penetration.
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gordonm888
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May 9th, 2024 at 7:19:59 PM permalink
I strongly agree with Mental and CharliePatrick. The equity you lose in your current hand will always be greater than the equity you gain
in subsequent hands (assuming you are not one card away from the cut card, as Charlie says.)
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
TheGambler31
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May 10th, 2024 at 12:42:44 AM permalink
Hi, I want to express my gratitude for all the valuable insights provided. Initially, my inquiry revolved around calculating the additional house edge resulting from introducing the option for players to stand below 12 points in a 5-deck continuous shuffle machine. I must apologize for my oversight, as it turns out that most casinos already incorporate this option as standard practice. In the casinos where I currently work and previously worked, players were required to hit for an additional card if their hand totaled less than 12 points.

Considering that offering this option is already a standard practice globally, the house edge in Mr. Wizard's calculator remains applicable, especially since it focuses on basic and optimum strategy.

My other query pertains to whether card counters can exploit this option to their advantage. However, as wisely advised in this forum, "the equity you lose in your current hand will always be greater than the equity you gain." This holds particularly true when using a continuous shuffle machine.

I appreciate the additional confirmation from others that this option is indeed a default feature in other casinos. With this, I consider my concerns comprehensively addressed within this thread.

Thank you once again for your contributions.
Mental
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May 10th, 2024 at 5:53:27 AM permalink
There are a number of AP exploits that stem from people asking outside-the-box questions about the rules of a game. Even if the answers to the questions turn out to be dead ends, thinking about the question sometimes inspires new questions about the game or another similar game.
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charliepatrick
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May 10th, 2024 at 8:01:11 AM permalink
There's certainly an opportunity to remind the dealer not to deal a card until you've signalled for the next one or stand Personally I always make clear hand signals, but I don't like it when the Dealer, being cocky, makes assumptions.
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