seven
seven
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March 27th, 2024 at 12:42:38 PM permalink
Hey guys

Please help me with the answer to the question " Would you say Monty Hall 3 Doors game is a game of luck or a game of skill?

thanks
TigerWu
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March 27th, 2024 at 12:50:06 PM permalink
Luck. You're just picking a door randomly.
seven
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March 27th, 2024 at 12:52:48 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Luck. You're just picking a door randomly.
link to original post



But then you are asked by the host if you want to switch the door or to stay after the host opens a door with a goat. did you think about this?

thanks
TigerWu
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March 27th, 2024 at 12:55:35 PM permalink
Quote: seven

Quote: TigerWu

Luck. You're just picking a door randomly.
link to original post



But then you are asked by the host if you want to switch the door or to stay after the host opens a door with a goat. did you think about this?

thanks
link to original post



It's still luck. Otherwise what "skill" is involved?
seven
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March 27th, 2024 at 12:59:22 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: seven

Quote: TigerWu

Luck. You're just picking a door randomly.
link to original post



But then you are asked by the host if you want to switch the door or to stay after the host opens a door with a goat. did you think about this?

thanks
link to original post



It's still luck. Otherwise what "skill" is involved?
link to original post



I see it as a game of skill, which does not mean I am right, and so I thought I would ask here as I thought the members here would be familiar with the game.

are you familiar with the 3 doors game?
TigerWu
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March 27th, 2024 at 1:04:25 PM permalink
Quote: seven

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: seven

Quote: TigerWu

Luck. You're just picking a door randomly.
link to original post



But then you are asked by the host if you want to switch the door or to stay after the host opens a door with a goat. did you think about this?

thanks
link to original post



It's still luck. Otherwise what "skill" is involved?
link to original post



I see it as a game of skill, which does not mean I am right, and so I thought I would ask here as I thought the members here would be familiar with the game.

are you familiar with the 3 doors game?
link to original post



Yes I am.

If you're offered three doors to pick from and that's it, you just pick randomly. No skill involved.

If the host opens a non-goat door, you can either switch or not. If you don't switch, you've still picked a door randomly. No skill involved.

If you do switch because you know mathematically your odds have increased, you're just changing your mind based on a previously random decision. No skill involved.
seven
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March 27th, 2024 at 1:09:55 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: seven

Quote: TigerWu

Quote: seven

Quote: TigerWu

Luck. You're just picking a door randomly.
link to original post



But then you are asked by the host if you want to switch the door or to stay after the host opens a door with a goat. did you think about this?

thanks
link to original post



It's still luck. Otherwise what "skill" is involved?
link to original post



I see it as a game of skill, which does not mean I am right, and so I thought I would ask here as I thought the members here would be familiar with the game.

are you familiar with the 3 doors game?
link to original post



Yes I am.

If you're offered three doors to pick from and that's it, you just pick randomly. No skill involved.

If the host opens a non-goat door, you can either switch or not. If you don't switch, you've still picked a door randomly. No skill involved.

If you do switch because you know mathematically your odds have increased, you're just changing your mind based on a previously random decision. No skill involved.
link to original post



Sorry but I don't understand your very much appreciated explanation and you have anyway a mistake by saying >If the host opens a non-goat door<
The host opens a door with a goat and then asks you if you want to switch or stay and IMO here he gives the player a good chance to win and every AP player would know what to do.

IMO this is cancelling the luck but again maybe I am wrong
TigerWu
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March 27th, 2024 at 1:17:21 PM permalink
Quote: seven



Sorry but I don't understand your very much appreciated explanation and you have anyway a mistake by saying >If the host opens a non-goat door<
The host opens a door with a goat and then asks you if you want to switch or stay and IMO here he gives the player a good chance to win and every AP player would know what to do.

IMO this is cancelling the luck but again maybe I am wrong
link to original post



Yes, you're right, I meant he opens a goat door.

It's overall not a skill game, though. It's just knowing the math behind certain decisions. There's no "luck being canceled." The host is intentionally changing the odds to your favor. You can still lose the game, though.

Look at it this way: Let's say you found a casino actually offering this game. Every single time you play, you would switch doors, right? Literally 100% of the time, right? There's no skill in that. It's an automatic decision.
seven
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March 27th, 2024 at 1:25:27 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: seven



Sorry but I don't understand your very much appreciated explanation and you have anyway a mistake by saying >If the host opens a non-goat door<
The host opens a door with a goat and then asks you if you want to switch or stay and IMO here he gives the player a good chance to win and every AP player would know what to do.

IMO this is cancelling the luck but again maybe I am wrong
link to original post



Yes, you're right, I meant he opens a goat door.

It's overall not a skill game, though. It's just knowing the math behind certain decisions. There's no "luck being canceled." The host is intentionally changing the odds to your favor. You can still lose the game, though.

Look at it this way: Let's say you found a casino actually offering this game. Every single time you play, you would switch doors, right? Literally 100% of the time, right? There's no skill in that. It's an automatic decision.
link to original post



I understand your point but there will be many players who will stay with the first chosen door. but the smart players who know the math behind the game they will switch.
there is IMO math skill involved as there are many out there who will tell you that switching is a stupid move.

this forum has many many smart people :) therefore I am asking here :)
TigerWu
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March 27th, 2024 at 1:32:51 PM permalink
Quote: seven



I understand your point but there will be many players who will stay with the first chosen door. but the smart players who know the math behind the game they will switch.
there is IMO math skill involved as there are many out there who will tell you that switching is a stupid move.

this forum has many many smart people :) therefore I am asking here :)
link to original post



I guess you could argue that figuring out the math in the first place is the skill but once you've done it and you know, that's pretty much it. It's not like card counting where you're continually having to do the math on the fly and constantly making adjustments.

But then I didn't do the math on the Monty Hall game, it was just explained to me, so now I just know to switch doors every time. I certainly wouldn't argue that I am using skill to play the game.
seven
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March 27th, 2024 at 1:49:36 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: seven



I understand your point but there will be many players who will stay with the first chosen door. but the smart players who know the math behind the game they will switch.
there is IMO math skill involved as there are many out there who will tell you that switching is a stupid move.

this forum has many many smart people :) therefore I am asking here :)
link to original post



I guess you could argue that figuring out the math in the first place is the skill but once you've done it and you know, that's pretty much it. It's not like card counting where you're continually having to do the math on the fly and constantly making adjustments.

But then I didn't do the math on the Monty Hall game, it was just explained to me, so now I just know to switch doors every time. I certainly wouldn't argue that I am using skill to play the game.
link to original post



Thanks again, and let's hope other members will weigh in with their opinions.
tuttigym
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March 27th, 2024 at 2:33:24 PM permalink
In a previous life, I was a goat farmer. I would forsake the other two doors and keep the goat.

The other doors have big money prizes all taxable at ordinary rates. I hate paying taxes.

tuttigym
TigerWu
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March 27th, 2024 at 2:44:37 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

In a previous life, I was a goat farmer. I would forsake the other two doors and keep the goat.

The other doors have big money prizes all taxable at ordinary rates. I hate paying taxes.

tuttigym
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The goat wouldn't be taxable?
rainman
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March 27th, 2024 at 2:52:20 PM permalink
It's a game of luck and those who use skill will be luckier.
unJon
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March 27th, 2024 at 3:01:11 PM permalink
Itís an interesting question. Iíve debated many times whether poker is a game of luck or skill. Itís both obviously, but people feel strongly about categorizing it as one or the other. And there can be legal ramifications as the law of some states treats games of skill differently than games of chance.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
seven
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March 28th, 2024 at 12:05:06 AM permalink
Quote: unJon

Itís an interesting question. Iíve debated many times whether poker is a game of luck or skill. Itís both obviously, but people feel strongly about categorizing it as one or the other. And there can be legal ramifications as the law of some states treats games of skill differently than games of chance.
link to original post



Yes, legally speaking, poker is treated differently in many countries. Same with Rummy as many countries have it as a game of skill and some as a game of luck. For me Rummy is a game of skill.

I would like to offer the Monty Hall 3doors game online with cash prizes as I could not find it in any online casino. Maybe I missed it. If someone knows about it, please let me know.
DogHand
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March 28th, 2024 at 3:29:41 AM permalink
This debate reminds me of Mark Twain's short story "SCIENCE VS. LUCK":

http://www.twainquotes.com/Galaxy/187010d.html

Read it and enjoy!

Dog Hand
seven
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March 28th, 2024 at 3:47:24 AM permalink
Quote: DogHand

This debate reminds me of Mark Twain's short story "SCIENCE VS. LUCK":

http://www.twainquotes.com/Galaxy/187010d.html

Read it and enjoy!

Dog Hand
link to original post



thanks for the link

Sorry, but does that mean you have no opinion on my question? I really appreciate any opinion on my question.
unJon
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March 28th, 2024 at 5:32:29 AM permalink
Quote: seven

Quote: unJon

Itís an interesting question. Iíve debated many times whether poker is a game of luck or skill. Itís both obviously, but people feel strongly about categorizing it as one or the other. And there can be legal ramifications as the law of some states treats games of skill differently than games of chance.
link to original post



Yes, legally speaking, poker is treated differently in many countries. Same with Rummy as many countries have it as a game of skill and some as a game of luck. For me Rummy is a game of skill.

I would like to offer the Monty Hall 3doors game online with cash prizes as I could not find it in any online casino. Maybe I missed it. If someone knows about it, please let me know.
link to original post



It sounds like you are seeking legal advice about whether the game would be categorized as a game of luck or skill. Thats a different question not well informed by the views of people on a gambling Internet forum.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TigerWu
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March 28th, 2024 at 7:01:50 AM permalink
If you wanted to make the Monty Hall Problem truly a game of skill, I would think you would have to alter the variables every time you play. Different number of doors, different number of prizes, different payout odds, etc.
Wizard
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ThomasK
March 28th, 2024 at 8:44:23 AM permalink
The choice to switch entails math skills.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
ThomasK
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March 28th, 2024 at 9:52:00 AM permalink
I stumbled over this thread from back in November 2015. There the term "gambling" was discussed, including the notions of "chance" and "skill".

I could agree to the viewpoint that the Monty Hall Problem is not a game of skill if a game of skill is defined as one which must not include any element of chance, like chess.

Games discussed on this forum usually include an element of chance. The ultimate aim of these discussions is how to beat the games, although the trials are random. Any mathematically substantiated strategy I consider a skill because they usually do not come to mind intuitively and sometimes even seem to defy common sense.

Therefore I also consider the Monty Hall Problem a game of skill:
The element of chance is given by the fact that the car is behind any one of the three doors.
The element of skill is the knowledge about the advantage play which tells you to switch doors.
"When it comes to probability and statistics, intuition is a bad advisor. Don't speculate. Calculate." - a math textbook author (name not recalled)
DogHand
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March 28th, 2024 at 11:12:28 AM permalink
Quote: seven

Quote: DogHand

This debate reminds me of Mark Twain's short story "SCIENCE VS. LUCK":

http://www.twainquotes.com/Galaxy/187010d.html

Read it and enjoy!

Dog Hand
link to original post



thanks for the link

Sorry, but does that mean you have no opinion on my question? I really appreciate any opinion on my question.
link to original post


seven,

I say Skill.

Consider two players, S(kill) and L(uck). S follows the well-defined strategy: first, select a random door, then switch when Monty offers. L rolls a die each time he has a decision and so plays completely randomly.

ASSUMING Monty always opens a 🐐 door, then in the long run S will outperform L: skill will defeat luck. Thus, it is a game of skill.

The fact that the skill strategy is pre-determined does not alter the fact that is superior to random (or any other suboptimal) play.

As an example, consider two players playing 3 Card Poker with no foreknowledge of the dealer's cards. The skill player folds when he has Q64 offsuit or lower, the luck player plays by hunch. Here again, the skill player will do better (in this case, lose less than) the luck player.

Dog Hand
tuttigym
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March 28th, 2024 at 11:32:41 AM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: tuttigym

In a previous life, I was a goat farmer. I would forsake the other two doors and keep the goat.

The other doors have big money prizes all taxable at ordinary rates. I hate paying taxes.

tuttigym
link to original post



The goat wouldn't be taxable?
link to original post


Tax deductible a farm implement/lawn mower.

tuttigym
TigerWu
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odiousgambit
March 28th, 2024 at 12:09:22 PM permalink
Quote: DogHand



I say Skill.

Consider two players, S(kill) and L(uck). S follows the well-defined strategy: first, select a random door, then switch when Monty offers. L rolls a die each time he has a decision and so plays completely randomly.

ASSUMING Monty always opens a 🐐 door, then in the long run S will outperform L: skill will defeat luck. Thus, it is a game of skill.

The fact that the skill strategy is pre-determined does not alter the fact that is superior to random (or any other suboptimal) play.

As an example, consider two players playing 3 Card Poker with no foreknowledge of the dealer's cards. The skill player folds when he has Q64 offsuit or lower, the luck player plays by hunch. Here again, the skill player will do better (in this case, lose less than) the luck player.

Dog Hand
link to original post



In Baccarat, betting Banker every single time is the optimal play versus betting Player every time, or going back and forth, but no one is arguing that Baccarat is a game of skill. You bet Banker because you know the math is (slightly) better. That's not skill; that's just knowing the odds.

If you're playing the 3 door game and you know to switch every time, there is literally zero skill involved in doing that. You just know that's what you're supposed to do. If the other guy doesn't know that and picks totally randomly, he has worse odds, but that doesn't make you the more skillful player.
unJon
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March 28th, 2024 at 12:19:53 PM permalink
Quote: TigerWu

Quote: DogHand



I say Skill.

Consider two players, S(kill) and L(uck). S follows the well-defined strategy: first, select a random door, then switch when Monty offers. L rolls a die each time he has a decision and so plays completely randomly.

ASSUMING Monty always opens a 🐐 door, then in the long run S will outperform L: skill will defeat luck. Thus, it is a game of skill.

The fact that the skill strategy is pre-determined does not alter the fact that is superior to random (or any other suboptimal) play.

As an example, consider two players playing 3 Card Poker with no foreknowledge of the dealer's cards. The skill player folds when he has Q64 offsuit or lower, the luck player plays by hunch. Here again, the skill player will do better (in this case, lose less than) the luck player.

Dog Hand
link to original post



In Baccarat, betting Banker every single time is the optimal play versus betting Player every time, or going back and forth, but no one is arguing that Baccarat is a game of skill. You bet Banker because you know the math is (slightly) better. That's not skill; that's just knowing the odds.

If you're playing the 3 door game and you know to switch every time, there is literally zero skill involved in doing that. You just know that's what you're supposed to do. If the other guy doesn't know that and picks totally randomly, he has worse odds, but that doesn't make you the more skillful player.
link to original post



Taken to its logical conclusion, I view you as saying that itís not a game of skill because the skill is too easy (always choose to switch). Similarly, then would you say Tic Tac Toe is not a game of skill, because the strategy is too easy? A chicken can be taught to tie every time.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
unJon
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March 28th, 2024 at 12:21:27 PM permalink
Is basketball a game of skill?

Is betting on the outcome of a basketball game a game of skill?
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
TigerWu
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March 28th, 2024 at 12:48:46 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The choice to switch entails math skills.
link to original post



Figuring out the math requires the skill. Playing the actual game requires zero skill. I can figure out the math, then just tell someone else to play the game and "always switch." It requires no skill on the player's part. They don't even have to do or understand the math at all to play the game.

Quote: unJon



Taken to its logical conclusion, I view you as saying that itís not a game of skill because the skill is too easy (always choose to switch).



Yes, that's what I'm saying.

Quote:

Similarly, then would you say Tic Tac Toe is not a game of skill, because the strategy is too easy? A chicken can be taught to tie every time.
link to original post



I don't know, maybe, maybe not. It's been a while since I've played tic tac toe. It's definitely more involved than the 3 door game, though. But if both people know the perfect strategy, the game is pointless because you will always tie, unless one of you makes a mistake. At that point the game becomes more psychological, I guess, trying to trick your opponent into making a mistake. If only one person knows the perfect strategy, he has to hope that the other player will play in such a way to ensure a victory, or else it will be a tie. Then he just can't make any mistakes. There are no mistakes to be made with the 3 door game. It's just, "always switch."
odiousgambit
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March 28th, 2024 at 12:52:43 PM permalink
For sure if all the skill is, and all you need to do is, switch, after that door is revealed, then APs would kill this game if it is made +EV to do so

I have tried in my day with people who absolutely believe it doesn't matter if you switch, to challenge them to the same scenario with 3 cards, one a joker or something. They then start to realize they are wrong having noted I am quite ready to bet, not just for even money either, and won't bet
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: ďThanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!Ē   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
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