Crappy's Cold Table Craps Strategy
Description from the "Color Up" You Tube channel: "It is a simple strategy, that included built in money management, low risk, high comp rate, good action, and can be played at any table limit." The comments so far are all very positive with people claiming they have started using this strategy as their "go to".
This strategy runs 4 bets. Start with Don't Pass. After point is established then a Come bet, followed by another Come, and finally a Don't Come. Basically it's just Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come. Replace each bet as it win's or loses up to having 2 Don't Pass/Come and 2 Pass/Come up, then stop there. I ran it through the Wizard's Craps Sim, and it seems to work well and looks like a good way to play for a long time, get some comps, and protect your bankroll with some potential good runs. Almost exactly how Color Up described it. It seems like it can scale well with larger bets. *Another thing Color Up mentioned is that Casinos don't count Odds bets toward comps. I didn't realize this. So this strategy is a good way to have 4x bets counting toward comps.
Question: I am really interested in what the Risk of ruin would be on this strategy. I don't have an auto-craps simulator, and do not know how to do the math. Would anyone here be willing to calculate it? The big take-away is it "protects your bankroll". I am curious what the math says about this. Would also love to see if someone could run it through a Craps sim a few thousand time or more times to get some win/loss figures. Thanks.
This seems to be staggering it one after the other, to get different results ... then going further and staggering some more. It just is basic hedging overall, disguised to look like something brilliant, I have to think.
There are only three craps strategies
1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money
2) Don't play. Guaranteed to break even. Zero variance
3) If you must play, only make line bets with full odds. Very low average cost of entertainment with lots of variance
Quote: Ace2
3) If you must play, only make line bets with full odds. Very low average cost of entertainment with lots of variance
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I usually only play Pass + Odds occasionally placing the 6 & 8 and/or betting the Field for fun if I'm up big. Just curious about the math on this one. It's definitely a win small/lose small strategy, as with most hedge bets. It looks like a good way to play when not in the mood for too must risk but want to have some fun at the craps table. I'm personally thinking of it as a way to play long and get more comps while waiting on the wife to finish losing her bankroll on the slots... I did not know betting Odds did not count toward comps until I watched his video.
Quote: Ace2]Those color up “strategy” videos are well made but take them with a grain of salt
There are only three craps strategies
1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money
2) Don't play. Guaranteed to break even. Zero variance
3) If you must play, only make line bets with full odds. Very low average cost of entertainment with lots of variance
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Ok but you could do 3) with full odds. DP two comes and one don’t come. All full odds.
Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
Boredom? Low variance???Quote: pwcrabbWait for the wife while playing only Flat Bets with low edges and low variances and few worries except boredom.
Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
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Flat betting a 3-point Molly with 3-4-5 odds has a variance of 88. Excluding side/exotic bets, what other table game bet even comes close to that? For comparison purposes, the variance of betting a single roulette number (paying 35 to 1) is 33.
Quote: pwcrabbWait for the wife while playing only Flat Bets with low edges and low variances and few worries except boredom.
Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
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LOL, exactly! I am thinking about this as the "Wait for the Wife" strategy.
Quote: Ace2Boredom? Low variance???Quote: pwcrabbWait for the wife while playing only Flat Bets with low edges and low variances and few worries except boredom.
Come/Pass expected loss is one Flat Bet for 70.7 trials.
Dark Side expected loss is one Flat Bet for 73.3 trials.
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Flat betting a 3-point Molly with 3-4-5 odds has a variance of 88. Excluding side/exotic bets, what other table game bet even comes close to that? For comparison purposes, the variance of betting a single roulette number (paying 35 to 1) is 33.
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He means no odds and no come I think.
The RoR is 100%.Quote: RollThePointSaw this on "Color Up" YouTube channel yesterday titled, "Go to Winning Craps Strategy". Original credit goes to "Crappy the Craps Man" who also has a video, title, "My go to winning craps strategy Great for bankroll recovery"
Description from the "Color Up" You Tube channel: "It is a simple strategy, that included built in money management, low risk, high comp rate, good action, and can be played at any table limit." The comments so far are all very positive with people claiming they have started using this strategy as their "go to".
This strategy runs 4 bets. Start with Don't Pass. After point is established then a Come bet, followed by another Come, and finally a Don't Come. Basically it's just Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come. Replace each bet as it win's or loses up to having 2 Don't Pass/Come and 2 Pass/Come up, then stop there. I ran it through the Wizard's Craps Sim, and it seems to work well and looks like a good way to play for a long time, get some comps, and protect your bankroll with some potential good runs. Almost exactly how Color Up described it. It seems like it can scale well with larger bets. *Another thing Color Up mentioned is that Casinos don't count Odds bets toward comps. I didn't realize this. So this strategy is a good way to have 4x bets counting toward comps.
Question: I am really interested in what the Risk of ruin would be on this strategy. I don't have an auto-craps simulator, and do not know how to do the math. Would anyone here be willing to calculate it? The big take-away is it "protects your bankroll". I am curious what the math says about this. Would also love to see if someone could run it through a Craps sim a few thousand time or more times to get some win/loss figures. Thanks.
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Quote: teliotThe RoR is 100%.Quote: RollThePointSaw this on "Color Up" YouTube channel yesterday titled, "Go to Winning Craps Strategy". Original credit goes to "Crappy the Craps Man" who also has a video, title, "My go to winning craps strategy Great for bankroll recovery"
Description from the "Color Up" You Tube channel: "It is a simple strategy, that included built in money management, low risk, high comp rate, good action, and can be played at any table limit." The comments so far are all very positive with people claiming they have started using this strategy as their "go to".
This strategy runs 4 bets. Start with Don't Pass. After point is established then a Come bet, followed by another Come, and finally a Don't Come. Basically it's just Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come. Replace each bet as it win's or loses up to having 2 Don't Pass/Come and 2 Pass/Come up, then stop there. I ran it through the Wizard's Craps Sim, and it seems to work well and looks like a good way to play for a long time, get some comps, and protect your bankroll with some potential good runs. Almost exactly how Color Up described it. It seems like it can scale well with larger bets. *Another thing Color Up mentioned is that Casinos don't count Odds bets toward comps. I didn't realize this. So this strategy is a good way to have 4x bets counting toward comps.
Question: I am really interested in what the Risk of ruin would be on this strategy. I don't have an auto-craps simulator, and do not know how to do the math. Would anyone here be willing to calculate it? The big take-away is it "protects your bankroll". I am curious what the math says about this. Would also love to see if someone could run it through a Craps sim a few thousand time or more times to get some win/loss figures. Thanks.
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With a $1,000 buy in bank roll on a $15 table, how long would that take or, on average, how many hands?
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2
There are only three craps strategies
Wrong again; one needs to expand their craps consciousness and embrace the probabilities rather than the expectations.
tuttigym
I don’t think I’ve ever been right in your bookQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2
There are only three craps strategies
Wrong again; one needs to expand their craps consciousness and embrace the probabilities rather than the expectations.
tuttigym
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You cannot separate probabilities from expectations. Work out all the probabilities and that IS your expectation. Play long enough and your results will equal expectations.
Expanding your consciousness, doing yoga and meditation won’t change the math
Neither Take odds nor Lay Odds. Line Bets with no Odds are said to be "Barefoot." Perhaps Come Bets with no Odds are either Barefoot or Bareback.
Standard Deviation of Pass is 0.999900005 and Variance is 0.999800020.
Standard Deviation of Don't Pass is 0.999907020 and Variance is 0.999814049
Standard Deviation will of course increase with the number of Bets overall but not nearly as quickly as that number. Relax, drink, socialize.
I feel it’s important to keep track of the stats during your session . What numbers has rolled, how many rolls W/O a 7, how many 7 outs, how many points each shooter has rolled or not, etc. it’s something that I do while I play the Don’t and lay the 6X odds. I only play one number, I’m the favorite to win but if I play more than one number, I am no longer the favorite so it just doesn’t make any sense to play any additional numbers before a 7 out. I love the feeling of everyone losing and I’m the only one Winning. It’s weird I know but I’m a competitive person so that must be the reasoning.
Quote: pwcrabbWait For The Wife strategy is a socializing timekiller that will probably lose but that has minimal risk of significant loss. Play only Bright Side and Dark Side Flat Bets in any sequence and any frequency as whimsy dictates. Keep all Bets constant size. Two percent of Buy-in is a good size.
Neither Take odds nor Lay Odds. Line Bets with no Odds are said to be "Barefoot." Perhaps Come Bets with no Odds are either Barefoot or Bareback.
Standard Deviation of Pass is 0.999900005 and Variance is 0.999800020.
Standard Deviation of Don't Pass is 0.999907020 and Variance is 0.999814049
Standard Deviation will of course increase with the number of Bets overall but not nearly as quickly as that number. Relax, drink, socialize.
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I'm curious if there is anything behind the order of Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come in the 4 bets of Crappy's strategy. Seems unlikely, but I'm wondering if the order those bets are made actually has any effect on the math/stats. Like let's say you just staggered them, Pass, Don't Come, Come, and Don't Come...would it change anything? I mean optimally if all 4 bets are set (no matter how you get there), the best arrangement would be to have point be 4 & 10 for the Don't Pass and Don't Come bets; and point on 6 & 8 on the the Come bets. Then you are in a good position to win all 4.
Quote: RollThePointI'm curious if there is anything behind the order of Don't Pass, Come, Come, Don't Come in the 4 bets of Crappy's strategy. Seems unlikely, but I'm wondering if the order those bets are made actually has any effect on the math/stats. Like let's say you just staggered them, Pass, Don't Come, Come, and Don't Come...would it change anything?
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Don't Pass, Come should both win on a point-7out.
Pass, Don't Come, not so much.
I think the scheme presupposes that the table will be "choppy" for the next few rolls.
If you can predict the future...
What do you do with those stats ?Quote: Vegasrider
I feel it’s important to keep track of the stats during your session . What numbers has rolled, how many rolls W/O a 7, how many 7 outs, how many points each shooter has rolled or not, etc.
You can lay all six numbers and you’re still the favorite for every individual numberQuote: VegasriderI only play one number, I’m the favorite to win but if I play more than one number, I am no longer the favorite so it just doesn’t make any sense to play any additional numbers before a 7 out.
I love the feeling of everyone losing and I’m the only one Winning. It’s weird I know but I’m a competitive person so that must be the reasoning.
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Conversely, when you play the don’t side you’re generally the only one losing while everyone else is winning. Head or tails, it all evens out
There is no discernable distinction. Your hero merely took his own idiosyncratic shot. Make up your own story. You may risk any number of bets of any of the four types in any sequence. Expect to lose at a rate of one bet for every 70 bets made. Possible deviations from that expectation increase as the number of bets increases, but not horribly.
Quote: Ace2You can lay all six numbers and you’re still the favorite for every individual numberQuote: VegasriderI only play one number, I’m the favorite to win but if I play more than one number, I am no longer the favorite so it just doesn’t make any sense to play any additional numbers before a 7 out.
I love the feeling of everyone losing and I’m the only one Winning. It’s weird I know but I’m a competitive person so that must be the reasoning.
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Conversely, when you play the don’t side you’re generally the only one losing while everyone else is winning. Head or tails, it all evens out
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I disagree on laying all six numbers and still be the favorite. If I did, there would be 24 combinations that would result in a loss, vs my six. Plus factoring in the DC trying to establish each number. Keeping track of the rolls, numbers etc allows me to have a visual snapshot on how the game has progressed. Hot or cold. The only time I will have a losing session is if someone rolls 5 points, it’s very difficult to recover from that as a DC based on my betting. The amount bet will vary whether a point was hit or the number of points were rolled.
Warning the swings are huge, my normal buy is 2k.
on the other hand pass, DC sequence shines with 7-winner, then point-setQuote: Dieter[snip]
Don't Pass, Come should both win on a point-7out.
Pass, Don't Come, not so much.
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maybe one or the other helps preserve the bankroll, I'm not sure. It would seem to be true that if it does, it has to be a hedging effect. For me, the main reason to avoid hedging is that it favors the house, not in HE but in lowering variance in a negative expectation game. A player should only want to lower variance in a +EV situation, normally. Now, I will admit Craps played in the best way is really high in variance and it can be too much. The only thing is, there are better ways to lower it than hedging.
Talk about preserving the bankroll while waiting for the wife and all that is not a discussion worth having. If I did that I think I'd just be quiet about it!
Quote: odiousgambiton the other hand pass, DC sequence shines with 7-winner, then point-setQuote: Dieter[snip]
Don't Pass, Come should both win on a point-7out.
Pass, Don't Come, not so much.
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(snip!)
I can only imagine that a truly skilled dice predictor will get it right about half the time (and feel like a hero), and just barely miss the rest of the time (and second guess their play).
In any case, best of luck. I've certainly seen worse schemes.
Quote: Ace2
There are only three craps strategies
1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money
Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.
Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.
Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2
There are only three craps strategies
1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money
Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.
Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.
Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.
tuttigym
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Do you understand how leverage and debt work?
Quote: unJonQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2
There are only three craps strategies
1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money
Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.
Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.
Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.
tuttigym
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Do you understand how leverage and debt work?
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Yes, what's the next question.
tuttigym
Not even worth a responseQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2
There are only three craps strategies
1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money
Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.
Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.
Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.
tuttigym
link to original post
Quote: Ace2Not even worth a responseQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2
There are only three craps strategies
1) Own the casino. Only way you'll make money
Wrong on this one big time. Do you suppose the owners of the casinos that went belly-up made money? You know the six casinos in Tunica, MS., or the three or four Station casinos in LV, or the bankrupt casinos in AC plus I am sure there are several others that can be named.
Now, I am sure one could point to certain circumstances such as poor management, poor marketing, lavish unnecessary spending, and maybe really bad luck, but in the end, casino ownership is not 100% a winning situation.
Keep swinging, Ace2, your batting average is bound to go up.
tuttigym
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But somehow you did.
tuttigym
