Ace2
Ace2
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June 9th, 2020 at 11:59:49 AM permalink
Call it the Ice Bet

What are the odds that the pass line loses on all six points before winning any?

The bet can be made on every come out roll following a passline win (on a point).

If the vig wasn稚 too steep, I壇 like to make this bet occasionally
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jun 9, 2020
It痴 all about making that GTA
mrsuit31
mrsuit31
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June 9th, 2020 at 12:33:16 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Call it the Ice Bet

What are the odds that the pass line loses on all six points before winning any?

The bet can be made on every come out roll following a passline win (on a point).

If the vig wasn稚 too steep, I壇 like to make this bet occasionally



Interesting concept. I just don't think there are enough dark siders who play side wagers to justify it when factoring in the cost of commercialization against the potential market. Same would go for the lease cost on the casinos' end in order to justify putting it in. Especially because they would have to remove repeaters, bonus craps or the like to do so.

Just my thoughts, but interesting nonetheless.
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DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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June 9th, 2020 at 12:49:42 PM permalink
I think I proposed that in a post several years ago.

I combined it with the concept of the Darkside craps table:
1- The shooter keeps the dice until he makes a point.
2- Black felt, black dice.
3- Reverse the positions of the pass/DP, C/DC, etc.

I agree there might not be enough dark siders to make it worth it.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
Ace2
Ace2
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June 9th, 2020 at 12:51:52 PM permalink
Quote: DJTeddyBear

I think I proposed that in a post several years ago.

I combined it with the concept of the Darkside craps table:
1- The shooter keeps the dice until he makes a point.
2- Black felt, black dice.

Did you calculate the odds ?
It痴 all about making that GTA
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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June 9th, 2020 at 1:46:38 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Did you calculate the odds ?

No.
I was just spit-balling the idea. And partially just to get an acknowledging laugh.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
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June 9th, 2020 at 1:47:17 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Did you calculate the odds ?


For the "ice bet," I get around 1/238 through simulation
ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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June 9th, 2020 at 2:01:17 PM permalink
I don't get it. If I'm gonna hit 15 7-11 winners on my way to making 10 points, the table is not cold.
Ace2
Ace2
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June 9th, 2020 at 2:10:56 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

I don't get it. If I'm gonna hit 15 7-11 winners on my way to making 10 points, the table is not cold.

Bets resolved on 7 (come out roll), 11, 2, 3 and 12 are not relevant to Fire Bet or Ice Bet

Most people don稚 really care about those resolutions because it痴 only like 20 to 30 percent of a bet backed with odds. You won稚 hear many passline bettors cheering on a yo-leven win. My favorite craps dealer at Cosmopolitan calls it 渡uthin but a consolation prize
Last edited by: Ace2 on Jun 9, 2020
It痴 all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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June 9th, 2020 at 3:14:58 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

For the "ice bet," I get around 1/238 through simulation

Sounds reasonable. A rough estimate, assuming all six point numbers have a 4/36 chance of being rolled, is 1 in combin (10,4) or 1 in 210.
It痴 all about making that GTA
Ace2
Ace2
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June 10th, 2020 at 10:32:52 AM permalink
I integrated (1-((1-e^(-x/12))*(1-e^(-x/10))*(1-e^(-5x/44)))^2)*e^(-67x/165)*67/165 to get an exact answer of

1 - 26377022557963785763747662711151 / 26487894210755014319991887628450 =~ 1 in 238.906
It痴 all about making that GTA

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