Baccarat: Betting prgressions, betting on patterns & Shuffling
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August 22nd, 2019 at 6:30:50 AM
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Baccarat or Mini-Baccarat
1. Are flat bets the safest bets which have the least risk of losing your session bankroll?
2. Does betting on patterns either streaks or chops improve the chances of betting on a winning side?
3. Does shuffling after each hand versus after each deck versus shuffling at the end of a six deck shoe affect the odds?
Any input would be appreciated. Thank you.
1. Are flat bets the safest bets which have the least risk of losing your session bankroll?
2. Does betting on patterns either streaks or chops improve the chances of betting on a winning side?
3. Does shuffling after each hand versus after each deck versus shuffling at the end of a six deck shoe affect the odds?
Any input would be appreciated. Thank you.
August 22nd, 2019 at 6:36:49 AM
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The least risk is not playing at all.Quote: Ron44Baccarat or Mini-Baccarat
1. Are flat bets the safest bets which have the least risk of losing your session
What do you mean with ‘losing your session’? What is a session: a predetermined number of rounds? reaching an objective? play until the bankroll is exhausted ?
No. One round is independent from the past (no memory).Quote:2. Does betting on patterns either streaks or chops improve the chances of betting on a winning side?
No, not for practical effects (modifications ate negligible). —> Counting cards is useless in Baccarat.Quote:3. Does shuffling after each hand versus after each deck versus shuffling at the end of a six deck shoe affect the odds?
Reperiet qui quaesiverit
August 22nd, 2019 at 7:31:01 AM
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Quote: Ron44Baccarat or Mini-Baccarat
1. Are flat bets the safest bets which have the least risk of losing your session bankroll?
2. Does betting on patterns either streaks or chops improve the chances of betting on a winning side?
3. Does shuffling after each hand versus after each deck versus shuffling at the end of a six deck shoe affect the odds?
Any input would be appreciated. Thank you.
There are ways of interpreting your questions.
Nothing you do by way of changing betting levels can make any difference to the house edge.
Average total loss = Sum(wager amounts) x house edge
So your best chance of not losing your bankroll is to not bet.
The 'best' way of extending your session is to repeatedly min bet on banker: BORING.
More exciting, but likely to shorten your session is any kind of progression. I find a 1,2,3,3,3 progression mildly amusing.
If you wish to make a tiny, insignificant profit, then you could martingale from a minimal starting stake and quit as soon as you are ahead That can actually give you a very very high probability of winning, say $1 with a low possibility that you will go home broke. But it will be an incredibly short session of an average number of wagers between about 1 and 2 wagers.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/5/#post1370
Streaks and chops mean nothing. Sessions mean nothing. Just be bored and bet only banker.
Shuffling makes no significant difference.
To me, Baccarat is as boring a way of losing money as I could ever imagine.
A baccarat 'expert' will be along shortly to regail you with his stories of successful money management and 'hit and run' technique. Don't buy such nonsense.
Oh, and Marty is just another fun way of losing money. I don't recommend it unless you have more money than sense or you are absolutely desperate to win a dollar.*
*I ignored the 95% payout of Banker bet
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 22nd, 2019 at 9:04:37 AM
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You really need some kind of win goal target as ANY bankroll without a target has a 100% ruin probability.Quote: Ron44Baccarat or Mini-Baccarat
1. Are flat bets the safest bets which have the least risk of losing your session bankroll?
and... define 'flat bets'
example: your bankroll = $1000
you bet PLAYER for $1000 everytime
bankroll ruin probability playing forever = 100%
you bet PLAYER for $20 everytime
bankroll ruin probability playing forever = 100%
you bet PLAYER for $1 everytime
bankroll ruin probability playing forever = 100%
probability to flat bet PLAYER
starting with $1000 bankroll
and stopping at $2000
| $ bet: probability |
|---|
| 1000: 49.3175170% |
| 500: 48.6352883% |
| 250: 47.2726084% |
| 100: 43.2168256% |
| 50: 36.6788219% |
| 20: 20.3420644% |
| 10: 6.1220326% |
difference is only average number of rounds to ruin
Last edited by: 7craps on Aug 22, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
August 22nd, 2019 at 9:48:36 AM
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Betting systems, etc. won't help.
However, a good shoe will follow a pattern. A bad shoe will not. During each session you will encounter at least one good shoe that follows a pattern. The trick it to leave after a pattern shoe and call it a day. I have had many sessions where every damn shoe follows a pattern and it's hard to know when to quit because the money keeps rolling in!
For example, here's a shoe I played during a trip earlier this year. Not even the best shoe of the trip by any means, but a nice one:
VERY early on in the shoe it was obvious that the pattern was "player runs only one." Even the dealer was saying this, and even the dealer at the unoccupied table next door who was looking at the back of the screen was saying it. You'd have to be an idiot not to recognize that pattern.
So, every time player ran one I would bet the bank big. Since I'm a believer in streaks, I would additionally press into each bank run. In the old days I would have cleared easily a half million on a shoe like this. This time, I didn't get that I don't play like that but this was definitely a shoe where I was pressing to a couple thousand a hand.
But the key - again - was to LEAVE after this shoe. You just get a sense for when things can't get any better. You must also have a sense for when the shoe is not following any pattern, and to drop your bet, switch tables or just plain leave.
Same with BJ, there is more to it than just the count. You could have a great count and be getting crappy cards with the dealer getting all the good stuff. Following the trend also means pressing the bet when you keep winning. Or leaving when it's just not happening.
Don't be that guy who is clutching his chips desperately betting knowing inside that there is no way for this to end short of losing his entire bankroll. But also, DEFINITELY don't be that guy who can't recognize when the chips are flying and it's time to press. Years and years of experience have taught me the difference.
One of these guys who posted above negatively could be presented with the above Bacc. shoe and not win a nickel. Hard to imagine, but true.
However, a good shoe will follow a pattern. A bad shoe will not. During each session you will encounter at least one good shoe that follows a pattern. The trick it to leave after a pattern shoe and call it a day. I have had many sessions where every damn shoe follows a pattern and it's hard to know when to quit because the money keeps rolling in!
For example, here's a shoe I played during a trip earlier this year. Not even the best shoe of the trip by any means, but a nice one:
VERY early on in the shoe it was obvious that the pattern was "player runs only one." Even the dealer was saying this, and even the dealer at the unoccupied table next door who was looking at the back of the screen was saying it. You'd have to be an idiot not to recognize that pattern.
So, every time player ran one I would bet the bank big. Since I'm a believer in streaks, I would additionally press into each bank run. In the old days I would have cleared easily a half million on a shoe like this. This time, I didn't get that I don't play like that but this was definitely a shoe where I was pressing to a couple thousand a hand.
But the key - again - was to LEAVE after this shoe. You just get a sense for when things can't get any better. You must also have a sense for when the shoe is not following any pattern, and to drop your bet, switch tables or just plain leave.
Same with BJ, there is more to it than just the count. You could have a great count and be getting crappy cards with the dealer getting all the good stuff. Following the trend also means pressing the bet when you keep winning. Or leaving when it's just not happening.
Don't be that guy who is clutching his chips desperately betting knowing inside that there is no way for this to end short of losing his entire bankroll. But also, DEFINITELY don't be that guy who can't recognize when the chips are flying and it's time to press. Years and years of experience have taught me the difference.
One of these guys who posted above negatively could be presented with the above Bacc. shoe and not win a nickel. Hard to imagine, but true.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
August 22nd, 2019 at 8:04:37 PM
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7 craps, Sorry for not stating my win goal. Could you please advise $bet probability for $1000 bankroll flat bet PLAYER. one with $1100 win goal and one with $1200 win goal? Thank you.
August 22nd, 2019 at 8:32:32 PM
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Mdawg, I am new to baccarat. I read a book on the basics and have played 2-3 times. I am learning from this forum and appreciate the knowledge that you, other members and the Wizard share. At a mini-baccarat table can I A) make NO bets until a pattern develops? B) Bet on both banker and player at the same time until a pattern develops?
If I cannot do A) or B) above is it a good idea to bet minimum bets until a pattern develops and then press bets up one unit on each winner until I lose? Thanks.
If I cannot do A) or B) above is it a good idea to bet minimum bets until a pattern develops and then press bets up one unit on each winner until I lose? Thanks.
August 23rd, 2019 at 12:13:28 AM
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None of those betting systems works so I can't comment there. There is no hard and fast rule as far as what exactly to press is what I mean.
You mention betting only player...put it this way, I have seen players dump anywhere from thousands to tens of millions right before my eyes stubbornly betting player against a bank run. That shoe above would be a very bad shoe to bet player. On the other hand, I have cleaned up massively on a shoe with so many players back to back followed by just one bank followed by even more players back to back (twin player runs) that the pit bosses have literally been smacking their foreheads over the amount of chips flying out of the tray. Meaning, anyway, that betting always bank or always player is an over all sure loser.
As far as getting a "free hand" I play midi or grand Bacc. only, and most casinos will give you as many free hands as you like. One exception for example is the Hard Rock Vegas, which is fairly player unfriendly for both BJ and Bacc., and in Bacc. the HR Vegas allows only 3 free hands per shoe. If you run out of or are not allowed free hands yes betting both player and bank at the same time is one way to do it, at a slight cost.
There are times when I will use free hands such as at the beginning of the shoe but I've also come right up to a brand new shoe and bet bank, won, tripled, won again on bank, tripled a third time won again on bank, and then am left with a big decision as to what to do next...of course getting three banks right off the bat on a new shoe is just blind luck but I bring it up just to point out that free hands aren't always the way to go.
I've also hit four blackjacks in a row on a shuffle right out of the gate all played to table max, again just blind luck but sometimes your bet and your luck just coincide. Sometimes all it takes is winning one hand with a big bet, and now you don't care because you won a lot, and leaving that big bet up there and a run happens.
If you get to the point in a Bacc. shoe when you are asking for a lot of free hands it's probably time to take a break because you'll probably notice that at that point you're winning the free hand mental bets and losing the real ones, in other words that something (meaning the shoe) is probably going random and it is time to leave.
Look...put it this way, standing behind a Bacc. shoe watching it, for the most part it looks to an outsider like there is no way to win. But when you're in the shoe and a pattern emerges and keeps repeating and you press into it, that's the way to win. Another sure fire way to win is 2 or 3 banks appear and you jump on bank or already were on bank, and then press as more and more banks come. Of course, again that is the luck of being there when a massive bank run happens, but beyond the luck is to leave quickly if the run doesn't happen again. Whenever I have played there has been always at least one ten bank (or player) run usually more like 13 or so, in one or more of the shoes I play that day. The details of how to preserve capital until those inevitable runs or patterns emerge is not really something that may be taught. It's the same reason why some gamblers perceive when the clutch is there and are able to press into big victories and some gamblers will never be able to win.
In the shoe above there was no reason to leave until the shoe was over the pattern of only one player was broken only thrice, and it was an easy shoe to win at. Really, on a shoe like that it's only a question of how much you're going to win.
You mention betting only player...put it this way, I have seen players dump anywhere from thousands to tens of millions right before my eyes stubbornly betting player against a bank run. That shoe above would be a very bad shoe to bet player. On the other hand, I have cleaned up massively on a shoe with so many players back to back followed by just one bank followed by even more players back to back (twin player runs) that the pit bosses have literally been smacking their foreheads over the amount of chips flying out of the tray. Meaning, anyway, that betting always bank or always player is an over all sure loser.
As far as getting a "free hand" I play midi or grand Bacc. only, and most casinos will give you as many free hands as you like. One exception for example is the Hard Rock Vegas, which is fairly player unfriendly for both BJ and Bacc., and in Bacc. the HR Vegas allows only 3 free hands per shoe. If you run out of or are not allowed free hands yes betting both player and bank at the same time is one way to do it, at a slight cost.
There are times when I will use free hands such as at the beginning of the shoe but I've also come right up to a brand new shoe and bet bank, won, tripled, won again on bank, tripled a third time won again on bank, and then am left with a big decision as to what to do next...of course getting three banks right off the bat on a new shoe is just blind luck but I bring it up just to point out that free hands aren't always the way to go.
I've also hit four blackjacks in a row on a shuffle right out of the gate all played to table max, again just blind luck but sometimes your bet and your luck just coincide. Sometimes all it takes is winning one hand with a big bet, and now you don't care because you won a lot, and leaving that big bet up there and a run happens.
If you get to the point in a Bacc. shoe when you are asking for a lot of free hands it's probably time to take a break because you'll probably notice that at that point you're winning the free hand mental bets and losing the real ones, in other words that something (meaning the shoe) is probably going random and it is time to leave.
Look...put it this way, standing behind a Bacc. shoe watching it, for the most part it looks to an outsider like there is no way to win. But when you're in the shoe and a pattern emerges and keeps repeating and you press into it, that's the way to win. Another sure fire way to win is 2 or 3 banks appear and you jump on bank or already were on bank, and then press as more and more banks come. Of course, again that is the luck of being there when a massive bank run happens, but beyond the luck is to leave quickly if the run doesn't happen again. Whenever I have played there has been always at least one ten bank (or player) run usually more like 13 or so, in one or more of the shoes I play that day. The details of how to preserve capital until those inevitable runs or patterns emerge is not really something that may be taught. It's the same reason why some gamblers perceive when the clutch is there and are able to press into big victories and some gamblers will never be able to win.
In the shoe above there was no reason to leave until the shoe was over the pattern of only one player was broken only thrice, and it was an easy shoe to win at. Really, on a shoe like that it's only a question of how much you're going to win.
I tell you it’s wonderful to be here, man. I don’t give a damn who wins or loses. It’s just wonderful to be here with you people.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/betting-systems/33908-the-adventures-of-mdawg/
August 23rd, 2019 at 1:42:24 AM
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I always bet Player on the home game because my betting pattern depends on not paying a 5% vig.
August 23rd, 2019 at 5:46:16 AM
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MDawg, Thank you very much for your detailed reply which gives me a lot to think about. Some people would say that intuition enables a gambler to press into big victories. I realize that intuition cannot be taught. I can certainly improve my game skills in other areas thanks to your information. Good gambling to you.
August 23rd, 2019 at 5:55:29 AM
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OnceDear, Thank you for sharing. You are right, playing baccarat at minimum flat bets would be boring. On progression 1-2-3-3-3, after the 5th win would you stay at 3 units or go back to 2 units or to 1 unit or increase to 4 units? Thanks again.
August 23rd, 2019 at 6:07:10 AM
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kubikulann, It is amazing how much bad information is out there. Lots of blogs and you tube videos tell you to wait for streaks and to ignore chops. They also suggest that one should look for hand shuffle games that shuffle near the end of a shoe. Thank you and good luck.
August 23rd, 2019 at 9:18:21 AM
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$1000 bankrollQuote: Ron44$bet probability for $1000 bankroll flat bet PLAYER. one with $1100 win goal and one with $1200 win goal? Thank you.
These tables are from using the Gambler's Ruin formula
there is a lot more to this as one should consider time it takes to ruin or target.
example:
[1] "in money: stake:$1000,target:$2000, wanted gain of $1000, flat betting:$100"
[1] "in units: stake:10, target of 20, gain of 10, flat betting 1"
> print(formatC(data, digits=9),quote=FALSE)
data
stake in units 10
p(goal) 0.432172666
p(ruin) 0.567827334
avg trials 109.841836
$1000 win goal
| $bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 1 | 1000 | 2 | 2000 | 49.318% |
| 500 | 2 | 1000 | 4 | 2000 | 48.635% |
| 200 | 5 | 1000 | 10 | 2000 | 46.593% |
| 100 | 10 | 1000 | 20 | 2000 | 43.217% |
| 50 | 20 | 1000 | 40 | 2000 | 36.679% |
| 25 | 40 | 1000 | 80 | 2000 | 25.123% |
| 20 | 50 | 1000 | 100 | 2000 | 20.342% |
| 10 | 100 | 1000 | 200 | 2000 | 6.122% |
$1100 win goal
| $bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 1 | 1100 | 2.1 | 2100 | 46.904% |
| 500 | 2 | 1100 | 4.2 | 2100 | 46.191% |
| 200 | 5 | 1100 | 10.5 | 2100 | 44.058% |
| 100 | 10 | 1100 | 21 | 2100 | 40.549% |
| 50 | 20 | 1100 | 42 | 2100 | 33.822% |
| 25 | 40 | 1100 | 84 | 2100 | 22.233% |
| 20 | 50 | 1100 | 105 | 2100 | 17.590% |
| 10 | 100 | 1100 | 210 | 2100 | 4.655% |
$1200 win goal
| $bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 1 | 1200 | 2.2 | 2200 | 44.711% |
| 500 | 2 | 1200 | 4.4 | 2200 | 43.969% |
| 200 | 5 | 1200 | 11 | 2200 | 41.755% |
| 100 | 10 | 1200 | 22 | 2200 | 38.131% |
| 50 | 20 | 1200 | 44 | 2200 | 31.252% |
| 25 | 40 | 1200 | 88 | 2200 | 19.704% |
| 20 | 50 | 1200 | 110 | 2200 | 15.228% |
| 10 | 100 | 1200 | 220 | 2200 | 3.540% |
$1500 win goal
| $bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 1 | 1500 | 2.5 | 2500 | 39.183% |
| 500 | 2 | 1500 | 5 | 2500 | 38.370% |
| 200 | 5 | 1500 | 12.5 | 2500 | 35.961% |
| 100 | 10 | 1500 | 25 | 2500 | 32.069% |
| 50 | 20 | 1500 | 50 | 2500 | 24.910% |
| 25 | 40 | 1500 | 100 | 2500 | 13.815% |
| 20 | 50 | 1500 | 125 | 2500 | 9.937% |
| 10 | 100 | 1500 | 250 | 2500 | 1.558% |
$2000 win goal
| $bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 1 | 2000 | 3 | 3000 | 32.428% |
| 500 | 2 | 2000 | 6 | 3000 | 31.531% |
| 200 | 5 | 2000 | 15 | 3000 | 28.900% |
| 100 | 10 | 2000 | 30 | 3000 | 24.751% |
| 50 | 20 | 2000 | 60 | 3000 | 17.523% |
| 25 | 40 | 2000 | 120 | 3000 | 7.774% |
| 20 | 50 | 2000 | 150 | 3000 | 4.938% |
| 10 | 100 | 2000 | 300 | 3000 | 0.398% |
Last edited by: 7craps on Aug 23, 2019
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
August 23rd, 2019 at 10:18:21 AM
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My favoured 1,2,3,3,3 progression ( for amusement only ) means that my first bet and every bet after a win is 1 unit ( typically min bet ).Quote: Ron44OnceDear, Thank you for sharing. You are right, playing baccarat at minimum flat bets would be boring. On progression 1-2-3-3-3, after the 5th win would you stay at 3 units or go back to 2 units or to 1 unit or increase to 4 units? Thanks again.
After the first time I lose a hand, I bet 2. If I lose that I bet 3. If I lose that, I bet 3 again until I win a hand.
It's not advocated as a system, but it amuses me more than flat betting.
Incidentally, I do not advocate taking too much advice from MDawg, with whom I ( and others) fervently disagree.
However, He fervently disagrees with me, so it's all fair and ultimately up to you to judge.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 23rd, 2019 at 11:44:31 AM
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OnceDear, I realize that 1,2,3,3,3 is for amusement only. I will try to learn from both you and MDawg even though you tend to disagree.
August 23rd, 2019 at 11:53:15 AM
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7craps, Thank you for your reply. I was not clear. My two win goals are $100 and $200 which would increase my starting $1000 bankroll to either $1100 or $1200 if I won. Please post the gamblers ruin results one more time. I apologize for the mix up.
August 23rd, 2019 at 12:25:17 PM
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Quote: Ron44Please post the gamblers ruin results one more time. I apologize for the mix up.
| $bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1000 | 1 | 100 | 1.1 | 1100 | 90.784% |
| 500 | 2 | 100 | 2.2 | 1100 | 90.659% |
| 200 | 5 | 100 | 5.5 | 1100 | 90.276% |
| 100 | 10 | 100 | 11 | 1100 | 89.618% |
| 50 | 20 | 100 | 22 | 1100 | 88.232% |
| 25 | 40 | 100 | 44 | 1100 | 85.204% |
| 20 | 50 | 100 | 55 | 1100 | 83.583% |
| 10 | 100 | 100 | 110 | 1100 | 74.861% |
| $bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
| 1000 | 1 | 200 | 1.2 | 1200 | 83.105% |
| 500 | 2 | 200 | 2.4 | 1200 | 82.875% |
| 200 | 5 | 200 | 6 | 1200 | 82.175% |
| 100 | 10 | 200 | 12 | 1200 | 80.978% |
| 50 | 20 | 200 | 24 | 1200 | 78.478% |
| 25 | 40 | 200 | 48 | 1200 | 73.134% |
| 20 | 50 | 200 | 60 | 1200 | 70.345% |
| 10 | 100 | 200 | 120 | 1200 | 56.273% |
| $bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
| 1000 | 1 | 300 | 1.3 | 1300 | 76.607% |
| 500 | 2 | 300 | 2.6 | 1300 | 76.289% |
| 200 | 5 | 300 | 6.5 | 1300 | 75.324% |
| 100 | 10 | 300 | 13 | 1300 | 73.679% |
| 50 | 20 | 300 | 26 | 1300 | 70.273% |
| 25 | 40 | 300 | 52 | 1300 | 63.155% |
| 20 | 50 | 300 | 65 | 1300 | 59.536% |
| 10 | 100 | 300 | 130 | 1300 | 42.431% |
| bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
| 1000 | 1 | 400 | 1.4 | 1400 | 71.038% |
| 500 | 2 | 400 | 2.8 | 1400 | 70.644% |
| 200 | 5 | 400 | 7 | 1400 | 69.453% |
| 100 | 10 | 400 | 14 | 1400 | 67.432% |
| 50 | 20 | 400 | 28 | 1400 | 63.285% |
| 25 | 40 | 400 | 56 | 1400 | 54.813% |
| 20 | 50 | 400 | 70 | 1400 | 50.621% |
| 10 | 100 | 400 | 140 | 1400 | 32.067% |
| $bet | units | win goal | target units | target | success Prob |
| 1000 | 1 | 500 | 1.5 | 1500 | 66.211% |
| 500 | 2 | 500 | 3 | 1500 | 65.753% |
| 200 | 5 | 500 | 7.5 | 1500 | 64.367% |
| 100 | 10 | 500 | 15 | 1500 | 62.028% |
| 50 | 20 | 500 | 30 | 1500 | 57.271% |
| 25 | 40 | 500 | 60 | 1500 | 47.775% |
| 20 | 50 | 500 | 75 | 1500 | 43.205% |
| 10 | 100 | 500 | 150 | 1500 | 24.276% |
I already had these...
one may be thrilled to see that winning $100 starting with $100 bets is about 90%
That is for the very 1st time.
want to win 10 sessions in a row? Hell YES!
0.9^10= about 34.9% or about 1 chance in 3 which is LESS THAN the 43% chance when playing just one session
turning $1k into $2k. something to think about.
BANKER bet does a bit better than PLAYER but the calculations are way more difficult and take more time.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
August 23rd, 2019 at 12:29:02 PM
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Here again is my rule of thumbQuote: Ron447craps, Thank you for your reply. I was not clear. My two win goals are $100 and $200 which would increase my starting $1000 bankroll to either $1100 or $1200 if I won. Please post the gamblers ruin results one more time. I apologize for the mix up.
https://wizardofvegas.com/member/oncedear/blog/5/#post1370
So, your probability of increasing your bankroll from $1,000 to $1,100 where you limit yourself to either success (and no possibility of more) or complete bankroll loss is roughly (a little less than) 1000/1100 = 90.9% If you gamble with a small number of large wagers, then it's close to that. If you try it with many small wagers, you expose more action to the house edge and your probability plummets. You can see that effect in the tables that you have been given even though they had misinterpreted your win goals.
My rule of thumb is less accurate than the ruin calcs you have been given. Those calcs rely on equal wagers
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 23rd, 2019 at 1:13:47 PM
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OnceDear, Your rule of thumb makes sense. It is nice to think about getting rich at baccarat, but I realize that the chances are remote at best.
August 23rd, 2019 at 1:18:15 PM
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7craps, Your gamblers ruin tables are very helpful. Turning $1k into $2k is something to think about.
June 26th, 2020 at 12:38:18 PM
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OnceDear, System31 has a bet sequence of 1,1,1,2,2,4,4,8,8(total 31 units). You follow that bet sequence on both losers and winners You go back to one unit after two winners in a row. The loss limit is 31 units. What Win Goal do you recommend with System 31 when playing for baccarat?
June 26th, 2020 at 1:26:23 PM
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I don't often play baccarat. Nor do I recommend win goals or progressive wagering except as an amusing way to make boring games more exciting, while tending to give money to the house.Quote: Ron44OnceDear, System31 has a bet sequence of 1,1,1,2,2,4,4,8,8(total 31 units). You follow that bet sequence on both losers and winners You go back to one unit after two winners in a row. The loss limit is 31 units. What Win Goal do you recommend with System 31 when playing for baccarat?
I generally aspire to win the cost of a restaurant meal or round of drinks or similar petty treat while trying to get in an hour of play. No point winning or losing more quickly as that defeats amusement value. If I have an hours fun and lose that value, that's fine too.
If I want to make a profit, it would be the casino marketing team that I'd aspire to beat, not the game.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
