unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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February 2nd, 2019 at 10:41:46 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

If this did happen to you (and twice, OMG) , then it would constitute proof that the game is rigged in some way. That is far more probable than this was just bad luck.

By the way, the win rate at BJ is 43% (actually 42.4%), not 50% or 49% as has been quoted above, so all of the numbers that have been provided are probably slightly inflated.

OP said he didn’t push any hands either.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
heatmap
heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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February 3rd, 2019 at 4:54:02 AM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

I am a super logical person, I know every hand and card is independent or the next, etc, etc.

If there were a black cloud phenomenon, that would be me. I'm consistently a flat better, maybe add a few chips if winning. I never win. I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

Now that I'm done whining, here is the question. Twice in the past two months, I have begun a shoe in high limits, six-deck shoe, no other players the table, playing one hand, stand on soft 17 and surrender available, and I have proceeded to lose every single hand in the shoe. You read that correctly, I lost every hand, not a push but actually lost every hand playing perfect basic strategy. What are the odds of that happening? How do the odds increase per next hand? The first time it happened, they had just done a card change, and the supervisor took note because they had never seen it before and even called surveillance to verify that the deck of cards that had been replaced weren't fouled up. again me being logical, even if they were fouled up they would also be fouled up for me and us I should also be able to win or lose as much as the dealer would. It happened again tonight. same exact scenario, I lost every single hand in the entire shoe. No pushes nothing. So again what are the odds of losing every single hand, and what are the odds of doing that twice?



Was this online or at a brick and mortar casino? Where is this located I want to stay away
DoctorPhil
DoctorPhil
Joined: Feb 2, 2019
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February 3rd, 2019 at 5:00:31 AM permalink
I know this doesn't matter, but I stated it was in a two month time period, not back to back. In addition it was a brick and mortar. As stated the first time garnered so much attention they called surveillance to review the cards that had just been placed.

I realize you need some constants. I'll never know exactly where cut card was placed, it's high limits so it's usually a bit less than outside. Let's assume 78 cards cut off. Let's also assume the lower end of average. I recall the first time many multi card hands.

I don't care whether I am believer or not. If it makes you answer the question from a statistics point of view, you can assume I'm lying.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 3rd, 2019 at 5:57:04 AM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

I know this doesn't matter, but I stated it was in a two month time period, not back to back. In addition it was a brick and mortar. As stated the first time garnered so much attention they called surveillance to review the cards that had just been placed.

I realize you need some constants. I'll never know exactly where cut card was placed, it's high limits so it's usually a bit less than outside. Let's assume 78 cards cut off. Let's also assume the lower end of average. I recall the first time many multi card hands.

I don't care whether I am believer or not. If it makes you answer the question from a statistics point of view, you can assume I'm lying.



My personal record is 16 in a row at Pai Gow. (I had a bunch of pushes).

The forum has to decide if it is more likely that you actually lost 40 or so hands in a row, with not even a single push, and then did it again, or that you 1. "mis-remembered, or 2. are just making up a story.

There was another member who claimed to have rolled 18 yo's in a row. If you were a member here, how would you respond to him?

By the way, Dr. Fill is a Crossword Puzzling Computer. I'm guessing you are a Doctor named Phil?
unJon
unJon
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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Thanks for this post from:
darkoz
February 3rd, 2019 at 5:59:08 AM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

I know this doesn't matter, but I stated it was in a two month time period, not back to back. In addition it was a brick and mortar. As stated the first time garnered so much attention they called surveillance to review the cards that had just been placed.

I realize you need some constants. I'll never know exactly where cut card was placed, it's high limits so it's usually a bit less than outside. Let's assume 78 cards cut off. Let's also assume the lower end of average. I recall the first time many multi card hands.

I don't care whether I am believer or not. If it makes you answer the question from a statistics point of view, you can assume I'm lying.

On page one, someone fid give you the probability already.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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February 3rd, 2019 at 6:08:24 AM permalink
Did you split any hands? If so, did you lose both hands every time?
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heatmap
Joined: Feb 12, 2018
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February 3rd, 2019 at 7:20:46 AM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

I know this doesn't matter, but I stated it was in a two month time period, not back to back. In addition it was a brick and mortar. As stated the first time garnered so much attention they called surveillance to review the cards that had just been placed.

I realize you need some constants. I'll never know exactly where cut card was placed, it's high limits so it's usually a bit less than outside. Let's assume 78 cards cut off. Let's also assume the lower end of average. I recall the first time many multi card hands.

I don't care whether I am believer or not. If it makes you answer the question from a statistics point of view, you can assume I'm lying.



I believe you but we need to figure out a little bit more so do you remember if there was an automatic card shuffler? Was it a continuous card shuffler? Hand shuffle?

I have been slowly analyzing and reconstructing the way these shufflers randomize the cards from videos on YouTube specifically the “slot lady” if you are curious and need some kind of contrasting data you can take a look at her blackjack sessions and report back
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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February 3rd, 2019 at 7:46:41 AM permalink
You believe him??? That in the span of a couple of months, he lost 40 straight blackjack hands twice at the same place?

The only realistic way it happens once is cheating. Then to go back and do it again?
Nathan
Nathan
Joined: Sep 2, 2016
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:15:55 AM permalink
Come on guys, let's give him the benefit of the doubt. I'm giving it to him. Stranger things have happened than what he said in his OP. :)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
PokerGrinder
PokerGrinder
Joined: Apr 30, 2015
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:20:49 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

Come on guys, let's give him the benefit of the doubt. I'm giving it to him. Stranger things have happened than what he said in his OP. :)


You’re right. This one member years ago pretended to be a guy that fell for a female member who was a spammer. He was so embarrassed. Then this guy made plans to meet up with another member and surprise him in real life that he was in face a she.

No reason not to believe someone who claims they had a 1/5,000,0000,000 occurrence happen to them twice in a month.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston

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