DoctorPhil
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February 2nd, 2019 at 8:58:16 PM permalink
I am a super logical person, I know every hand and card is independent or the next, etc, etc.

If there were a black cloud phenomenon, that would be me. I'm consistently a flat better, maybe add a few chips if winning. I never win. I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

Now that I'm done whining, here is the question. Twice in the past two months, I have begun a shoe in high limits, six-deck shoe, no other players the table, playing one hand, stand on soft 17 and surrender available, and I have proceeded to lose every single hand in the shoe. You read that correctly, I lost every hand, not a push but actually lost every hand playing perfect basic strategy. What are the odds of that happening? How do the odds increase per next hand? The first time it happened, they had just done a card change, and the supervisor took note because they had never seen it before and even called surveillance to verify that the deck of cards that had been replaced weren't fouled up. again me being logical, even if they were fouled up they would also be fouled up for me and us I should also be able to win or lose as much as the dealer would. It happened again tonight. same exact scenario, I lost every single hand in the entire shoe. No pushes nothing. So again what are the odds of losing every single hand, and what are the odds of doing that twice?
FinsRule
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:04:10 PM permalink
Didn’t happen.

Edit - unless there is like no penetration
DoctorPhil
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:05:24 PM permalink
It did, twice in a couple months. Thanks though for that helpful response.
FinsRule
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:09:25 PM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

It did, twice in a couple months. Thanks though for that helpful response.



Rough estimate 500 billion to 1. So that happening twice to the same person, come on.
MaxPen
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:12:09 PM permalink
Not that I believe for a second that this actually happened, you would need to give the number of hands dealt to get an accurate answer. A guess at the depth of cut card could result in a calculated guess being provided.
FinsRule
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:15:13 PM permalink
I assumed 40 hands. No one is going to believe that this happened twice to the same person.

If it’s happened once in history, I’d be shocked.
michael99000
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:41:08 PM permalink
Let’s say 240 cards were used, that’s about 1.5 decks penetration.

With 1 player at the table the dealer averages using 2.78 cards per round and the player 2.74.


therefore you are saying you lost about 43 hands in a row.
ksdjdj
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:43:33 PM permalink
First we need to know where the cut card was in those games or preferably how many games you played each shoe (if you can remember).

For a basic strategy player, if the shoe stopped at about 208 cards into the shoe, it would be roughly 38 hands played for one player vs dealer (playing one hand per game).
If the shoe stopped at about 260 cards into the shoe, it would be roughly 48 hands played for one player vs dealer.

The chance of a player losing 1 hand is about 49.09%, from the site below (once on the page scroll down to the "Summarized Net Win in Blackjack" table).

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/


The chance of losing 38 hands in a row is about 1/552,414,131,902 (0.4909^38)
The chance of losing 48 hands in a row is about 1/679,726,902,915,061 (0.4909^48)

Note: The above are just estimates for a player having zero wins and/or pushes in one shoe.

Those are some "hard to believe" numbers.
is this for real (as I am a pretty GULLIBLE person)?

If this happened to you at any casino. I would consider not playing there at all or playing a different game (maybe try the lottery).
The chance of winning the Mega Millions is 1/302,575,350.
In other words, your chance of winning the Mega Millions is about 1825 times more likely (compared to losing 38 out of 38 hands at blackjack).
I "suggest" you go buy a lotto ticket.
----------------------------

Update: I wasted 40+ minutes on this post, because when I started writing this reply there were no other posts (I started writing this reply at about 9 pm) : )

Also, you should have got them to spread all the cards on the table, if they don't normally do so, especially before the 2nd game.
One way I could "believe" that this happened to a basic strategy player, is if there were no 5's to Kings in the shoe.

----------------------------
Update 2 (about 11 PM):

For another comparison, you are about 345,258 times more likely to die from an impact by a "meteorite, asteroid, or comet" in a "lifetime", when compared to losing 38 out of 38 hands in BJ.

Note: the chance of a being killed in a "lifetime" is about 1,600,000 (according to the link below).

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds/

--------------------------
Update 3 (about 1150 pm, last update in this post, I "promise")

If you played 38 hands per shoe @ 100 shoes per month for 50 years, the chance of this happening for "at least one shoe" would be about 1 in 9.2 million.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 2, 2019
gordonm888
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February 2nd, 2019 at 10:07:04 PM permalink
If this did happen to you (and twice, OMG) , then it would constitute proof that the game is rigged in some way. That is far more probable than this was just bad luck.

By the way, the win rate at BJ is 43% (actually 42.4%), not 50% or 49% as has been quoted above, so all of the numbers that have been provided are probably slightly inflated.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
michael99000
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February 2nd, 2019 at 10:16:39 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

If this did happen to you (and twice, OMG) , then it would constitute proof that the game is rigged in some way. That is far more probable than this was just bad luck.

By the way, the win rate at BJ is 43% (actually 42.4%), not 50% or 49% as has been quoted above, so all of the numbers that have been provided are probably slightly inflated.



According to the wizard, the chances of losing a blackjack hand is 49.1%

So in calculating the OPs chances of losing 43 straight hands , 49.1% is the number to use.
unJon
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February 2nd, 2019 at 10:41:46 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

If this did happen to you (and twice, OMG) , then it would constitute proof that the game is rigged in some way. That is far more probable than this was just bad luck.

By the way, the win rate at BJ is 43% (actually 42.4%), not 50% or 49% as has been quoted above, so all of the numbers that have been provided are probably slightly inflated.

OP said he didn’t push any hands either.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
heatmap
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February 3rd, 2019 at 4:54:02 AM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

I am a super logical person, I know every hand and card is independent or the next, etc, etc.

If there were a black cloud phenomenon, that would be me. I'm consistently a flat better, maybe add a few chips if winning. I never win. I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

Now that I'm done whining, here is the question. Twice in the past two months, I have begun a shoe in high limits, six-deck shoe, no other players the table, playing one hand, stand on soft 17 and surrender available, and I have proceeded to lose every single hand in the shoe. You read that correctly, I lost every hand, not a push but actually lost every hand playing perfect basic strategy. What are the odds of that happening? How do the odds increase per next hand? The first time it happened, they had just done a card change, and the supervisor took note because they had never seen it before and even called surveillance to verify that the deck of cards that had been replaced weren't fouled up. again me being logical, even if they were fouled up they would also be fouled up for me and us I should also be able to win or lose as much as the dealer would. It happened again tonight. same exact scenario, I lost every single hand in the entire shoe. No pushes nothing. So again what are the odds of losing every single hand, and what are the odds of doing that twice?



Was this online or at a brick and mortar casino? Where is this located I want to stay away
DoctorPhil
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February 3rd, 2019 at 5:00:31 AM permalink
I know this doesn't matter, but I stated it was in a two month time period, not back to back. In addition it was a brick and mortar. As stated the first time garnered so much attention they called surveillance to review the cards that had just been placed.

I realize you need some constants. I'll never know exactly where cut card was placed, it's high limits so it's usually a bit less than outside. Let's assume 78 cards cut off. Let's also assume the lower end of average. I recall the first time many multi card hands.

I don't care whether I am believer or not. If it makes you answer the question from a statistics point of view, you can assume I'm lying.
SOOPOO
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February 3rd, 2019 at 5:57:04 AM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

I know this doesn't matter, but I stated it was in a two month time period, not back to back. In addition it was a brick and mortar. As stated the first time garnered so much attention they called surveillance to review the cards that had just been placed.

I realize you need some constants. I'll never know exactly where cut card was placed, it's high limits so it's usually a bit less than outside. Let's assume 78 cards cut off. Let's also assume the lower end of average. I recall the first time many multi card hands.

I don't care whether I am believer or not. If it makes you answer the question from a statistics point of view, you can assume I'm lying.



My personal record is 16 in a row at Pai Gow. (I had a bunch of pushes).

The forum has to decide if it is more likely that you actually lost 40 or so hands in a row, with not even a single push, and then did it again, or that you 1. "mis-remembered, or 2. are just making up a story.

There was another member who claimed to have rolled 18 yo's in a row. If you were a member here, how would you respond to him?

By the way, Dr. Fill is a Crossword Puzzling Computer. I'm guessing you are a Doctor named Phil?
unJon
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February 3rd, 2019 at 5:59:08 AM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

I know this doesn't matter, but I stated it was in a two month time period, not back to back. In addition it was a brick and mortar. As stated the first time garnered so much attention they called surveillance to review the cards that had just been placed.

I realize you need some constants. I'll never know exactly where cut card was placed, it's high limits so it's usually a bit less than outside. Let's assume 78 cards cut off. Let's also assume the lower end of average. I recall the first time many multi card hands.

I don't care whether I am believer or not. If it makes you answer the question from a statistics point of view, you can assume I'm lying.

On page one, someone fid give you the probability already.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
SOOPOO
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February 3rd, 2019 at 6:08:24 AM permalink
Did you split any hands? If so, did you lose both hands every time?
heatmap
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February 3rd, 2019 at 7:20:46 AM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

I know this doesn't matter, but I stated it was in a two month time period, not back to back. In addition it was a brick and mortar. As stated the first time garnered so much attention they called surveillance to review the cards that had just been placed.

I realize you need some constants. I'll never know exactly where cut card was placed, it's high limits so it's usually a bit less than outside. Let's assume 78 cards cut off. Let's also assume the lower end of average. I recall the first time many multi card hands.

I don't care whether I am believer or not. If it makes you answer the question from a statistics point of view, you can assume I'm lying.



I believe you but we need to figure out a little bit more so do you remember if there was an automatic card shuffler? Was it a continuous card shuffler? Hand shuffle?

I have been slowly analyzing and reconstructing the way these shufflers randomize the cards from videos on YouTube specifically the “slot lady” if you are curious and need some kind of contrasting data you can take a look at her blackjack sessions and report back
FinsRule
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February 3rd, 2019 at 7:46:41 AM permalink
You believe him??? That in the span of a couple of months, he lost 40 straight blackjack hands twice at the same place?

The only realistic way it happens once is cheating. Then to go back and do it again?
Nathan
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:15:55 AM permalink
Come on guys, let's give him the benefit of the doubt. I'm giving it to him. Stranger things have happened than what he said in his OP. :)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
PokerGrinder
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:20:49 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

Come on guys, let's give him the benefit of the doubt. I'm giving it to him. Stranger things have happened than what he said in his OP. :)


You’re right. This one member years ago pretended to be a guy that fell for a female member who was a spammer. He was so embarrassed. Then this guy made plans to meet up with another member and surprise him in real life that he was in face a she.

No reason not to believe someone who claims they had a 1/5,000,0000,000 occurrence happen to them twice in a month.
You can shear a sheep a hundred times, but you can skin it only once. — Amarillo Slim Preston
Nathan
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:38:52 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

You’re right. This one member years ago pretended to be a guy that fell for a female member who was a spammer. He was so embarrassed. Then this guy made plans to meet up with another member and surprise him in real life that he was in face a she.

No reason not to believe someone who claims they had a 1/5,000,0000,000 occurrence happen to them twice in a month.



Oh crap! O.O I kind of walked right into that one inadvertently. ;) Oh well that gives more credence to what I said about stranger things happening
;)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
FinsRule
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:39:26 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

Come on guys, let's give him the benefit of the doubt. I'm giving it to him. Stranger things have happened than what he said in his OP. :)



Name one.
Nathan
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:40:32 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Name one.



Poker Grinder named a BIG one. ;) A really Whopper one. ;)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
billryan
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:40:37 AM permalink
Quote: PokerGrinder

You’re right. This one member years ago pretended to be a guy that fell for a female member who was a spammer. He was so embarrassed. Then this guy made plans to meet up with another member and surprise him in real life that he was in face a she.

No reason not to believe someone who claims they had a 1/5,000,0000,000 occurrence happen to them twice in a month.




So you are saying there is a chance this isn't BS?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
darkoz
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Nathan
February 3rd, 2019 at 8:51:35 AM permalink
Im not attacking the math here but why is everyone on this forun so quick to label a person a liar?

Having been called out in my AP Nightmare thread as a liar multiple times when I know I was telling the truth I can attest to how frustrating it is

Now lets all agree that:

A) there is a possibility this person is telling the truth

And B) its mathematically impossible in an UNRIGGED deck

The only way both can be true above is if the casino cheated.

Therefore to consider this new member an out and out liar this forum must adhere to the belief that it is impossible for a casino to cheat!

So what are the statistical odds on that one? (Btw the OP seems to be intent on proving the casino cheated hence asking for the math help. Not to be called a liar. I see no reason anyone would want the latter)

Here are the real questions now that the math has been done?

Was this casino in the USA and/or in a highly regulated jurisdiction? Landbased or on a boat?

How high were your hands? You already stated it was high limits. If your limits were high thst might make more believable a casino would rig a deck. If it is in a small casino in a small country or on a boat it makes it even more believable
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
Nathan
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:01:03 AM permalink
Welcome back, Dark Oz! :D We missed you dearly! :D
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
SOOPOO
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:05:27 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Im not attacking the math here but why is everyone on this forun so quick to label a person a liar?



Welllll..... he said it happened TWICE!!!! So the 500 billion to one odds happened twice!!!!!! I am pretty sure he said it was in a high limit room, so a B and M casino.

Is it possible I am defaming a guy who is absolutely telling the truth? Yes, there is a one in a gazillion chance it did happen.

I believe a casino can cheat, but I don't think any casino would cheat to win 40 hands in a row! Do you?

(If this is an online casino and I misinterpreted the OP's post, then I apologize.)
FinsRule
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:08:44 AM permalink
Darkoz, I agree.

The only way it’s possible is if the casino cheated. The op didn’t really say that was happening. He said he was unlucky.

If he thought they were cheating, why go back and have it happen again???

That’d be fun to rig a deck to have the player lose every hand. If they made one strategy mistake, it would ruin everything.

So you’d need to make the hands all easy decisions but nothing too suspicious.
darkoz
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:23:22 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

Darkoz, I agree.

The only way it’s possible is if the casino cheated. The op didn’t really say that was happening. He said he was unlucky.

If he thought they were cheating, why go back and have it happen again???

That’d be fun to rig a deck to have the player lose every hand. If they made one strategy mistake, it would ruin everything.

So you’d need to make the hands all easy decisions but nothing too suspicious.



While he clearly thought the first time suspicious he does not have the math skills to do the exact odds (neither do I BTW) so he may have chalked it up to a once in a lifetime occurrence

He is asking how its possible to have happened a second time. So the suspicion you ask about is being raised

As for returning to that same casino? Again we need to know where this happened

In Vegas? Astronomically against return to the same casino when he has a hundred other choices

Is it in spodunk idaho and the next casino over is 100 miles away (and where a high roller might make them queasy enough or greedy enough to cheat) and you might see why he would still return

For that matter is it in an Indian casino on US soil should be an question raised. Where such suspicions of cheating will be answered in tribal court
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
7craps
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:25:38 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

The op didn’t really say that was happening. He said he was unlucky.

what else did the OP say?
Quote: DoctorPhil

"I am a super logical person, I know every hand and card is independent or the next, etc, etc.

there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

Quote: DoctorPhil

If there were a black cloud phenomenon, that would be me.
I'm consistently a flat better, maybe add a few chips if winning.
I never win.

confirmation bias
Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

Quote: DoctorPhil

Now that I'm done whining, here is the question. Twice in the past two months, I have begun a shoe in high limits, six-deck shoe, no other players the table, playing one hand, stand on soft 17 and surrender available, and I have proceeded to lose every single hand in the shoe."

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
darkoz
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:29:46 AM permalink
Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
michael99000
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:37:31 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating



In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.
darkoz
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:38:46 AM permalink
Some additional questions:
Was the table reserved and were table limits discussed?

Was there any prohibition against others playing the table because you wanted it all to yourself?

These questions go to likelihood of the casino having time to set the deck in advance. Slight of hand with the cut card and a rigged deck can achieve this result
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
darkoz
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:41:53 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Quote: darkoz

Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating



In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.



If you are rigging the deck you can rig the cut card motion. You will be surprised what sleight of hand can do

And he already said he plays basic strategy which is somewhat predictable.

What were the rules where he might make unpredictable decisions is another question
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michael99000
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February 3rd, 2019 at 10:01:13 AM permalink
Quote: darkoz

Quote: michael99000

Quote: darkoz

Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating



In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.



If you are rigging the deck you can rig the cut card motion. You will be surprised what sleight of hand can do

And he already said he plays basic strategy which is somewhat predictable.

What were the rules where he might make unpredictable decisions is another question



Ok just so I have it straight:

- The shoe is rigged so that literally every hand is a loser. 40 straight hands. They don’t throw in a winner here n there to make it look good. The casino has no problems creating a 500 million to 1 scenario

- the cut of the cards is rigged

- the player must play every hand to an exact set of basic strategy rules. Hitting/doubling soft hands. Splits. Hitting 12 vs 2, etc

-there cannot be any point in the shoe where a dealer goes on break and the relief dealer burns a card

- the player can never switch to 2 hands at any point in the shoe

Bottom line. This didn’t happen
rawtuff
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February 3rd, 2019 at 10:08:39 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000



Ok just so I have it straight:

The casino has no problems creating a 500 million to 1 scenario



billion. With b.
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darkoz
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February 3rd, 2019 at 10:31:31 AM permalink
Quote: michael99000

Quote: darkoz

Quote: michael99000

Quote: darkoz

Quote: 7craps

what else did the OP say?
there is one wrong assumption or wrong fact.

confirmation bias

Quote: DoctorPhil

I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

sure. losses ALL the time. perfect example. sure

come on Doc
how many hands played in each shoe U estimate?
any double down and split hands you remember?
too much to drink while playing?

How many times per shoe did you surrender?
surrender can be a good play.

some have it so easy
lose all the time
and still plays??



Good points

Confirmation bias against himself may be a possibility as well

But lets get all the questions answered as to where this took place before we rule out casino cheating



In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.



If you are rigging the deck you can rig the cut card motion. You will be surprised what sleight of hand can do

And he already said he plays basic strategy which is somewhat predictable.

What were the rules where he might make unpredictable decisions is another question



Ok just so I have it straight:

- The shoe is rigged so that literally every hand is a loser. 40 straight hands. They don’t throw in a winner here n there to make it look good. The casino has no problems creating a 500 million to 1 scenario

- the cut of the cards is rigged

- the player must play every hand to an exact set of basic strategy rules. Hitting/doubling soft hands. Splits. Hitting 12 vs 2, etc

-there cannot be any point in the shoe where a dealer goes on break and the relief dealer burns a card

- the player can never switch to 2 hands at any point in the shoe

Bottom line. This didn’t happen



What is the possibility that the casino DID rig the deck but NOT for the OP to lose 40 straight

What if BECAUSE it was rigged the OP wound up losing 40 straight due to the unpredictable outcomes caused by a rigged deck

I.e. the casino just rigged it for him to lose without specifically going for 40 straight losses. Just a preponderance of losses. And that led to such a staggering loss

How are the mathematical odds of losing 40 straight affected when the deck is NOT fair?
For Whom the bus tolls; The bus tolls for thee
ksdjdj
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February 3rd, 2019 at 12:09:08 PM permalink
Tried to find out the probability that a casino did cheat or rig the deck, here is what I found on the sites I looked at.
The first link is to some sort of "betting system" site, so wouldn't put much faith in the "facts" for that one, but the second link seems to be better and the third and fourth link are just for working out EOR.

Below is a link of the first site that came up when I looked up, "probability of a casino cheating"

http://www.progamblingsystems.com/how-casinos-cheat-us/

Below is a link of the first site that came up when I googled, "do casinos cheat at blackjack"

https://www.blackjackchamp.com/casino-news/24780-4-dirty-blackjack-tricks-casinos-used-cheat/

Also, removing sixteen 10 value cards and four Aces will increase the house edge by about 2.11%***.

***: 6-Deck, S17, OBO, DA 2 Cards, DAS, Late Surrender, ALWAYS playing basic strategy (see link below to work out/check yourself)

http://www.bjstrat.net/cgi-bin/cdca.cgi

Originally found the above link on the site below, when I searched "wizard of odds effect of card removal"

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/7/

Then clicked on "The source for this table is the amazing Composition Dependent Combinatorial Analyzer at bjstrat.net."

Even with 20 really good player cards removed from the start of a 6-deck shoe, the OP's situation would still be very hard to believe.


Hope this helps the OP in working out that the casino most likely cheated by "sleight of hand^^^" (if they did cheat).

^^^: From the "blackjackchamp" website, this is when: "...The dealer has extremely quick hands and notices that the player has had a few too many frosty umbrella drinks or is simply not paying attention, so rather than dealing the card from the top of the deck, the dealer intentionally hands out a bust card."


Question to Op: do you remember how many times you busted? (if it was nearly all or all the hands that you chose to hit on, then that could be an INDICATOR of "sleight of hand" type "cheating by the casino")
-----------------

Update:

If the shoe had the 20 cards mentioned above removed from the shoe, it would still be a 1/ 246,235,034,862 (or 0.50145^38)^*^ chance of losing 38 hands out of 38.


^*^ : the basic strategy player "losing a hand" chance goes from about 49.09% to about 50.145% (so 0.50145^38) when these cards are removed.

Also after looking into it further, the first website I mention may be a "betting system" website, but it does illustrate some "pretty good" ways a casino can cheat, if they wanted to (it is about half-way down the page, and starts with "blackjack" as the title).
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 3, 2019
gordonm888
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February 3rd, 2019 at 12:43:27 PM permalink
Quote: michael99000


In order for the shoe to be rigged they’d have to know exactly where’s he’s going to cut the cards, and how he’s gonna play every hand.



No, not true. In some shufflers the entire shoe is not preshuffled. Instead, an RNG selects the cards to be dealt as they are dealt and the cards are removed from their location and dealt.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
DoctorPhil
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February 3rd, 2019 at 12:47:06 PM permalink
Sorry for not replying as quickly. First, I'm not a cussing any casino of cheating. Why would they? Second, this is a high limit room, hand shuffled, shoe with 6 decks. Someone did ask about surrender, I said in OP they have surrender. I did not track but since I started basic strategy, I do recall surrendering a few hands. I considered that a loss, I realize it's half a loss. I'm not sure that changes much. Again, I certainly can't tell you where the cut card was, but I gave a few constants.

If you don't want to provide the answer and more concentrate on the validity, fine I'll just figure it out elsewhere.

I do recall doubling and splitting. They didn't win.
ChumpChange
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February 3rd, 2019 at 8:48:07 PM permalink
I've lost 40 hands fairly quickly. I'd call it a quantum leap.
ksdjdj
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February 3rd, 2019 at 9:22:03 PM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

Sorry for not replying as quickly. First, I'm not a cussing any casino of cheating. Why would they? Second, this is a high limit room, hand shuffled, shoe with 6 decks. Someone did ask about surrender, I said in OP they have surrender. I did not track but since I started basic strategy, I do recall surrendering a few hands. I considered that a loss, I realize it's half a loss. I'm not sure that changes much. Again, I certainly can't tell you where the cut card was, but I gave a few constants.

If you don't want to provide the answer and more concentrate on the validity, fine I'll just figure it out elsewhere.

I do recall doubling and splitting. They didn't win.




I gave you the rough chance*** of this happening in one shoe earlier in this thread, it is between 1/552,414,131,902 and 1/679,726,902,915,061, depending on how many hands you played per shoe.

***: for a fairly dealt game.

I also gave you the WoO site that you can go to, so that you can work out the chance of having a bad session like yours (the chance of losing is about 49.09% for each hand you play).

Can you guess/estimate how many shoes you have played in your life so far?
We could find a more "accurate" estimate if we had that figure, but It would still be at most a 1 in a million chance over a "life-time" of playing bj (that figure is for a player who plays every day for 50+ years)

Ps I couldn't estimate the chance figure for it happening in two shoes, because my calculator came back with an error message when I tried to find out.
------------------

update (about 3am pacific time)

Just did 100,000,000 simulations and the "minimum return" was -36^^^ units "wagering" 38 units in total and "bet size" 1 unit

^^^The sim doesn't tell me how this "minimum return" occurred, but It gave me these details/figures below:

House edge (per hand): 0.35% (estimate)
Standard Deviation (per hand): 1.15 (estimate)
Average return: -0.12 units (u)
Minimum Return: -36 u
Maximum Return: +37 u
Standard Deviation: 6.71 (don't know how to use that figure, someone else may be able to explain it)

This website was used to simulate the above: http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator.htm

Note: my computer won't run the java script simulator, but it is supposed to be a lot faster (see below)

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator_java.htm
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 4, 2019
Nathan
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February 4th, 2019 at 7:08:01 AM permalink
The fact that an esteemed long time Member also mentioned that the same exact thing happened to him at least once gives credible credence to what the OP claimed.
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
FinsRule
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February 4th, 2019 at 8:59:21 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

The fact that an esteemed long time Member also mentioned that the same exact thing happened to him at least once gives credible credence to what the OP claimed.



I don’t remember this. Can you explain?
Nathan
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February 4th, 2019 at 9:07:20 AM permalink
Quote: FinsRule

I don’t remember this. Can you explain?



Chump Change. "I've lost 40 hands fairly quickly. I'd call it a quantum leap." :)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
CrystalMath
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February 4th, 2019 at 9:20:20 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

Chump Change. "I've lost 40 hands fairly quickly. I'd call it a quantum leap." :)



Fairly quickly is not the same thing as 40 in a row.
I heart Crystal Math.
Nathan
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February 4th, 2019 at 9:46:05 AM permalink
Quote: CrystalMath

Fairly quickly is not the same thing as 40 in a row.



But it does kind of give credence that the OP was telling the truth. ;)
In both The Hunger Games and in gambling, may the odds be ever in your favor. :D "Man Babes" #AxelFabulous "Olive oil is processed but it only has one ingredient, olive oil."-Even Bob, March 27/28th. :D The 2 year war is over! Woo-hoo! :D I sometimes speak in metaphors. ;) Remember this. ;) Crack the code. :D 8.9.13.25.14.1.13.5.9.19.14.1.20.8.1.14! :D "For about the 4096th time, let me offer a radical idea to those of you who don't like Nathan -- block her and don't visit Nathan's Corner. What is so complicated about it?" Wizard, August 21st. :D
FinsRule
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CrystalMathtringlomanegamerfreakOnceDear
February 4th, 2019 at 9:57:00 AM permalink
Quote: Nathan

But it does kind of give credence that the OP was telling the truth. ;)



No it doesn’t at all.
CrystalMath
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February 4th, 2019 at 1:41:47 PM permalink
I just simulated 50 billion shoes with a 75% penetration.


It never happened
I heart Crystal Math.
jackmagic777
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February 4th, 2019 at 2:32:54 PM permalink
This actually happened to me 3 times in 8 deck shoes, 90% penetration. Luckily I recovered all my losses when I then enrolled in a DI class and after graduation, I rolled 30 yo's in a row.,
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