DoctorPhil
DoctorPhil
Joined: Feb 2, 2019
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February 2nd, 2019 at 8:58:16 PM permalink
I am a super logical person, I know every hand and card is independent or the next, etc, etc.

If there were a black cloud phenomenon, that would be me. I'm consistently a flat better, maybe add a few chips if winning. I never win. I like it when the wizard says things like you might win in the short term but of course we all lose in the long-term, I'm a perfect example of the perfect statistic. I consistently lose all the time.

Now that I'm done whining, here is the question. Twice in the past two months, I have begun a shoe in high limits, six-deck shoe, no other players the table, playing one hand, stand on soft 17 and surrender available, and I have proceeded to lose every single hand in the shoe. You read that correctly, I lost every hand, not a push but actually lost every hand playing perfect basic strategy. What are the odds of that happening? How do the odds increase per next hand? The first time it happened, they had just done a card change, and the supervisor took note because they had never seen it before and even called surveillance to verify that the deck of cards that had been replaced weren't fouled up. again me being logical, even if they were fouled up they would also be fouled up for me and us I should also be able to win or lose as much as the dealer would. It happened again tonight. same exact scenario, I lost every single hand in the entire shoe. No pushes nothing. So again what are the odds of losing every single hand, and what are the odds of doing that twice?
FinsRule
FinsRule
Joined: Dec 23, 2009
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:04:10 PM permalink
Didnít happen.

Edit - unless there is like no penetration
DoctorPhil
DoctorPhil
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:05:24 PM permalink
It did, twice in a couple months. Thanks though for that helpful response.
FinsRule
FinsRule
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:09:25 PM permalink
Quote: DoctorPhil

It did, twice in a couple months. Thanks though for that helpful response.



Rough estimate 500 billion to 1. So that happening twice to the same person, come on.
MaxPen
MaxPen
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:12:09 PM permalink
Not that I believe for a second that this actually happened, you would need to give the number of hands dealt to get an accurate answer. A guess at the depth of cut card could result in a calculated guess being provided.
Posting on the People's Approved Internet Network
FinsRule
FinsRule
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Thanks for this post from:
tringlomane
February 2nd, 2019 at 9:15:13 PM permalink
I assumed 40 hands. No one is going to believe that this happened twice to the same person.

If itís happened once in history, Iíd be shocked.
michael99000
michael99000
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:41:08 PM permalink
Letís say 240 cards were used, thatís about 1.5 decks penetration.

With 1 player at the table the dealer averages using 2.78 cards per round and the player 2.74.


therefore you are saying you lost about 43 hands in a row.
ksdjdj
ksdjdj
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February 2nd, 2019 at 9:43:33 PM permalink
First we need to know where the cut card was in those games or preferably how many games you played each shoe (if you can remember).

For a basic strategy player, if the shoe stopped at about 208 cards into the shoe, it would be roughly 38 hands played for one player vs dealer (playing one hand per game).
If the shoe stopped at about 260 cards into the shoe, it would be roughly 48 hands played for one player vs dealer.

The chance of a player losing 1 hand is about 49.09%, from the site below (once on the page scroll down to the "Summarized Net Win in Blackjack" table).

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/4/


The chance of losing 38 hands in a row is about 1/552,414,131,902 (0.4909^38)
The chance of losing 48 hands in a row is about 1/679,726,902,915,061 (0.4909^48)

Note: The above are just estimates for a player having zero wins and/or pushes in one shoe.

Those are some "hard to believe" numbers.
is this for real (as I am a pretty GULLIBLE person)?

If this happened to you at any casino. I would consider not playing there at all or playing a different game (maybe try the lottery).
The chance of winning the Mega Millions is 1/302,575,350.
In other words, your chance of winning the Mega Millions is about 1825 times more likely (compared to losing 38 out of 38 hands at blackjack).
I "suggest" you go buy a lotto ticket.
----------------------------

Update: I wasted 40+ minutes on this post, because when I started writing this reply there were no other posts (I started writing this reply at about 9 pm) : )

Also, you should have got them to spread all the cards on the table, if they don't normally do so, especially before the 2nd game.
One way I could "believe" that this happened to a basic strategy player, is if there were no 5's to Kings in the shoe.

----------------------------
Update 2 (about 11 PM):

For another comparison, you are about 345,258 times more likely to die from an impact by a "meteorite, asteroid, or comet" in a "lifetime", when compared to losing 38 out of 38 hands in BJ.

Note: the chance of a being killed in a "lifetime" is about 1,600,000 (according to the link below).

https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2016/02/160209-meteorite-death-india-probability-odds/

--------------------------
Update 3 (about 1150 pm, last update in this post, I "promise")

If you played 38 hands per shoe @ 100 shoes per month for 50 years, the chance of this happening for "at least one shoe" would be about 1 in 9.2 million.
Last edited by: ksdjdj on Feb 2, 2019
gordonm888
gordonm888
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February 2nd, 2019 at 10:07:04 PM permalink
If this did happen to you (and twice, OMG) , then it would constitute proof that the game is rigged in some way. That is far more probable than this was just bad luck.

By the way, the win rate at BJ is 43% (actually 42.4%), not 50% or 49% as has been quoted above, so all of the numbers that have been provided are probably slightly inflated.
michael99000
michael99000
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February 2nd, 2019 at 10:16:39 PM permalink
Quote: gordonm888

If this did happen to you (and twice, OMG) , then it would constitute proof that the game is rigged in some way. That is far more probable than this was just bad luck.

By the way, the win rate at BJ is 43% (actually 42.4%), not 50% or 49% as has been quoted above, so all of the numbers that have been provided are probably slightly inflated.



According to the wizard, the chances of losing a blackjack hand is 49.1%

So in calculating the OPs chances of losing 43 straight hands , 49.1% is the number to use.

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