osu3131
osu3131
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January 4th, 2017 at 11:30:39 PM permalink
Let me start off by saying Wizard your site is awesome, and you are a math genius. I've read and understand that no system can beat the casino in the long term. I've been studying the game of Craps for quite some time. I've created many systems and tested them on your free craps tester only to see pretty much all of them fail eventually. I've got 2 that I think might have some potential though. So here goes nothing.

System #1

My system features placing the 6 only after a point has been established and making sure the bet is turned off if no point is out. This is a progression betting system (which I know Wizard says are bad) hoping to play against the odds. First place the 6 for $6, then if you lose place again for $6. If you win the first one, you win $7. Win the second one you win $1. Keep going up the progression until a 6 hits and then start over. My progression goes like this:

$6, $6, $12, $24, $48, $90, $168, $312, $582, $1,080

You'd have to 7-out 10 times without a 6 coming up. I know it is possible, but seems like a longshot.

System #2

This is also a progression system, similar to System #1 except you are placing both the 6 and the 8. You start by placing $6 on both the 6 and 8. Once you hit either, you go back down to $6 on each. Here is the progression:

$6, $12, $36, $96, $270, $732, $1998

Once again, I know progressions you are betting alot to win a little, but in this case you would have to 7-out seven times in a row without hitting a 6 OR 8. There are 10 chances of hitting a 6 or 8 and only 6 chances of hitting a 7. Seems like this would be almost impossible to do (although I'm sure there is math that says it can and eventually will happen).

I'm open to feedback from anyone.
MrV
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onenickelmiracle
January 4th, 2017 at 11:36:47 PM permalink
Martingale.

It works great, until it doesn't.
"What, me worry?"
onenickelmiracle
onenickelmiracle
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:51:09 AM permalink
Quote: MrV

Martingale.

It works great, until it doesn't.

oh yeah. Like Sex Panther cologne, 60% of the time, it works every time.
I am a robot.
lilredrooster
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January 5th, 2017 at 2:35:06 AM permalink
Quote: osu3131



System #2

This is also a progression system, similar to System #1 except you are placing both the 6 and the 8. You start by placing $6 on both the 6 and 8. Once you hit either, you go back down to $6 on each. Here is the progression:

$6, $12, $36, $96, $270, $732, $1998

Once again, I know progressions you are betting alot to win a little, but in this case you would have to 7-out seven times in a row without hitting a 6 OR 8. There are 10 chances of hitting a 6 or 8 and only 6 chances of hitting a 7. Seems like this would be almost impossible to do (although I'm sure there is math that says it can and eventually will happen).

I'm open to feedback from anyone.



Think how you're going to feel if you ever got to that last bet when you face a possible total loss (if I did the arithmetic right which I did very quickly) of $6,204 and a possible total win of only $320. Experienced gamblers will tell you that long losing streaks are in no way unusual. I'm sure every blackjack AP on the site can remember losing 10 or more bets in a row. You say losing "seems like a longshot." Longshots come in every day.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
RS
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January 5th, 2017 at 4:16:37 AM permalink
I dealt to a guy who would use a martingale type strategy (5,6,8 + field). He'd order a coffee, orange juice, and 2 waters, then tip $0.50. I'm sure you can figure out the rest. But I'll explain anyway.

This dude was a total flea. I don't know what the hell was his "trigger" point, but he was always writing sh*t down. Then randomly he'd make his bets. But 90%+ of the time he had no money on the table. And he'd camp out for our entire shift. And damn, did he smoke a lot.

Anyway, I come back from break and I'm on stick. Whatever his trigger point is, it got hit, so he made his 5/5/6/6 dollar bets (field, 5, 6, 8). I called a 7. Then he puts up $20, $20, $24, and $24, or something like that. Another 7. I smile to the box-man. He says, "ya need 4 more of those....7's the only number that'll do it" or something like that. I don't remember if I needed 3 more or 4 or 5 more 7's.....but in the end, I called the five or six 7's in a row, his table max bets had lost.

Naturally, there's a come out roll after a 7. So everyone's cheering for the following 7's. I mean, how can I not cheer for 7's? Well, at least I was enjoying myself. Never saw that feller again after that.


About 60 minutes later it was time to go on break. Pit boss sees me walking outta the pit and says good work....I'm like OK whatever, I guess? Go to the break room and there's random floor people and pit bosses and dealers and hell I think even the cook congratulated me on my achievements of calling the 6 or however many 7's in a row. (Okay, maybe not the cook...but there were some random people I didn't know say I did a good job.) Word travels fast in a casino...



Anyway, the math isn't particularly difficult to do. (6/16)^7 ~ 0.104%. Or about 1 in 1000 that you'll lose. How much will you lose? Then the other 999, how much will you win?

1 in 1,000 seems like a real long shot. But it's really not.

The idea of a winning system is (IMO) to be able to make lots of money for the rest of your life using the system. At least that's what I'd do if I found a secret system. (Then again, that's never gonna happen.) That being said, you're surely going to witness thousands of rolls in which you have money on them, no? A royal flush in video poker is about 1 in 40,000 and I can't even estimate how many I've hit (a lot). If something was 1 in 1k to happen, I'd expect it to happen
RS
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LuckyPhow
January 5th, 2017 at 4:24:14 AM permalink
If you wanna use a system because it's fun. Go right ahead. Just don't think for a second you're playing a winning game.

If I were to use a system for whatever reason on craps, I think the "best" system (for whatever that's worth) is finding a table with high odds amount, at least 10x, preferably 20x or 100x. Then bet $5 on pass line without odds. If it loses, bet $5 on PL but this time back it up with $5 in odds. If it loses, then martingale the odds (not 1-2-4-8) such that if the point is made, you end up winning whatever your desired amount is to win. Theory behind it is craps tables have high limits, you'd be making most of your $$$ wagered on a fair (no edge) bet (the odds), you don't have to double the wager after every loss -- so you shouldn't be going deep in the hole very quickly (because odds pay 6:5, 3:2, or 2:1), and your expected loss would be relatively low -- 1.41% of total money wagered on PL.

It ain't a winning system, no system is. But that's probably your best or the least bad system you can employ.
Calder
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January 5th, 2017 at 3:30:01 PM permalink
Don't listen them, I think you've cracked The Code.

They're just jealous they didn't come up with it first.
djatc
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January 5th, 2017 at 3:30:54 PM permalink
Quote: Calder

Don't listen them, I think you've cracked The Code.

They're just jealous they didn't come up with it first.





"Same goes for craps" - djatc
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
MrV
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January 5th, 2017 at 4:13:00 PM permalink
Quote: RS

If I were to use a system for whatever reason on craps, I think the "best" system (for whatever that's worth) is...



While I've never tried it, nor do I recall seeing others try it, I'd be willing to bet there is no better bet at craps than what has been described as the "Oddsman bet."

Basically you look for a table where a player is making PL bets without then taking any odds; ask him if he would mind if you make an odds bet behind his line bet.

Don't know what the box would say about it, but it is about as good as you can get.

I guess we're too shy to ask strangers to allow us to do this.
"What, me worry?"
Mission146
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January 5th, 2017 at 4:36:22 PM permalink
RS,

That sounds like some variation of a system that recently had a Youtube link posted here. The guy did so well with his one system that, on a different video for a different Craps system, he used dice roll footage from the first video.

MRV,

If I was running a Craps Table, I would be inclined not to allow that. The reason is there could be an argument in the event that the guy who made the PL bet feels as though he is entitled to some or all of the money. If two people were clearly there together, then perhaps I would allow something like that. Otherwise, I would tell the guy asking about Taking the other guy's Odds to either make a Put Bet with Odds or to Place/Buy the Point if he wants action on it.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
monet0412
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January 5th, 2017 at 6:01:18 PM permalink
That's real! Years and years ago I was playing drunken black jack at the western. A hustler was at the table with me and my drunken friend. The hustler had a two dollar bet with an 11 but didn't have double down money. I stopped the game and pleaded with the hustler to let me bet his double down. He let me. When paid he refused to give me the money back and winnings lol! It took a minute but he gave me my bet back but kept the winnings!! Good times... ahhh drunken black jack 😄
FleaStiff
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January 5th, 2017 at 6:08:51 PM permalink
That is why whether its craps or blackjack or whatever... I don't try to buy someone else's "no action" or anything at all like that. I keep my yap shut and wait for the stickman's call.
monet0412
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January 5th, 2017 at 10:48:55 PM permalink
Quote: MrV

Martingale.

It works great, until it doesn't.



Not that I ever want to martingale but if I had to I would do it in the sports book. I would think you'd have the best chance of success there. That's an interesting question for me, if anyone knows? What is the best play or game to martingale if you had to martingale?
RogerKint
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January 5th, 2017 at 11:14:27 PM permalink
Quote: monet0412

That's an interesting question for me, if anyone knows? What is the best play or game to martingale if you had to martingale?



No safety in the super bowl.
100% risk of ruin
odiousgambit
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Mission146
January 6th, 2017 at 3:51:26 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

If I was running a Craps Table, I would be inclined not to allow that.



I think you would want to stop anything that you can stop. Over time there seems to be little doubt that the best policy from the casino's point of view is to have the house book all bets. According to Scarne* the reason that there is any such thing as free odds is because side betting those bets was so traditional in the game before "bank craps" ever existed. After the casino game came about, players must have been still side betting and, yes, no doubt because arguments were erupting, the house books those bets now even though there is no house edge.

As for stopping a player from claiming the 6/8 darkside bets that would go to "no action" otherwise, the casino has a couple of reasons to not want that. Avoiding arguments, yes, for sure. But someone taking the action is also taking away a certain amount of favorable action for the house. Not a lot, maybe, but it is after all on the same level as asking if you can pick up you rightside line bet if it is a 4 or 10. Answer is no.

I've never seen anyone try to stop verbal side betting to be settled by passing chips after the fact - I've seen some dirty looks though.

*per member DrEntropy see https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/485-free-odds-in-craps/#post1514
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
ontariodealer
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January 6th, 2017 at 9:33:33 AM permalink
casino's are not there to stop bets...they are there to take them.
get second you pig
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