Bankroll Preservation
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September 15th, 2015 at 4:09:21 PM
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Hello,
Wizardofodds.com and Gambling 102 have been extremely helpful in planning my play for my upcoming trip to Vegas (Mandalay Bay). I'm not able to gamble often, and I want to maximize my time, hence the research.
Basically, despite spending hours learning basic strategies and determining house edges, calculating comp returns for various games, learning about volatility/variance, and making a pretty involved theo spreadsheet, I'm still unable to find any solid calculators, software, or even guides to what is (for me) the most important question:
How do I make a $1000 bankroll last the full four days of my trip, while actually having fun?
I could put $1000 on red my first 10 minutes on the floor, lose, and resign myself to sitting by the pool for four days. I could also sit at a penny slot machine, betting 1 line every 10 minutes and walk out four days later with $950 in my wallet and no comps. Where's the middle ground, and how do I optimize it, mathematically speaking?
TL;DR: In other words, how do I calculate how many hours of play a bankroll of $X will last, given a game with a standard deviation of σ, a house edge of y, at an outlay of $b per hour (a function of game speed and average bet)? Since the answer to that question is probably an equation with a bell curve, the follow-up question is, how do I use that curve to make intelligent decisions about my play? (aka not sitting down at a $100 minimum BJ table with a $1000 bankroll).
Thanks!
Wizardofodds.com and Gambling 102 have been extremely helpful in planning my play for my upcoming trip to Vegas (Mandalay Bay). I'm not able to gamble often, and I want to maximize my time, hence the research.
Basically, despite spending hours learning basic strategies and determining house edges, calculating comp returns for various games, learning about volatility/variance, and making a pretty involved theo spreadsheet, I'm still unable to find any solid calculators, software, or even guides to what is (for me) the most important question:
How do I make a $1000 bankroll last the full four days of my trip, while actually having fun?
I could put $1000 on red my first 10 minutes on the floor, lose, and resign myself to sitting by the pool for four days. I could also sit at a penny slot machine, betting 1 line every 10 minutes and walk out four days later with $950 in my wallet and no comps. Where's the middle ground, and how do I optimize it, mathematically speaking?
TL;DR: In other words, how do I calculate how many hours of play a bankroll of $X will last, given a game with a standard deviation of σ, a house edge of y, at an outlay of $b per hour (a function of game speed and average bet)? Since the answer to that question is probably an equation with a bell curve, the follow-up question is, how do I use that curve to make intelligent decisions about my play? (aka not sitting down at a $100 minimum BJ table with a $1000 bankroll).
Thanks!
September 15th, 2015 at 4:35:07 PM
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No, it is not a bell curve. You can get the distribution for average play times only by simulating a lot of players with a fixed bankroll size and wager, and creating a histogram representing their bust-out time. Such efforts have been done for some games, primarily slots. For games with jackpot prizes, the histogram will have a very bumpy appearance.Quote: keodarkSince the answer to that question is probably an equation with a bell curve.
You are probably thinking of the normal curve that arises from the Central Limit Theorem. But that is for fixing a game G and a number of rounds N for that game. Then at the end of N rounds, plot the final bankroll for the player. As N goes to infinity, the curve converges to a normal distribution, with mean Nx(wager)x(house edge) and standard deviation sqrt(N) x (wager) x (stddev), where stddev is the standard deviation for one round of play based on a 1 unit bet.. That has nothing to do with your question, in which N is a variable.
If you want low-roller comps and want your money to last, choose a game with very low volatility, a reasonably low house edge, and a slow pace, like Pai Gow Poker or baccarat. Bet $25 per hand at Pai Gow Poker or baccarat and you will be good for a few days, unless the Gods really don't like you. Baccarat is a stupid game. At least in PGP you have something to think about. Avoid the PGP side bets.
I also suggest you get and read Comp City by Max Rubin. It is way out of date, but has a lot of good things to say.
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
September 15th, 2015 at 4:59:40 PM
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Teliot,
Thanks, that's helpful. As a followup, though, is there some readily available software that I could use to simulate players, as you mentioned? I don't have the math skills to do it myself, alas.
I agree with what you say about PGP, but I'd rather not stick to one game. My hope was to generate a casino trip plan that laid out each game, and the maximum bet at that game that would be reasonably likely to preserve my bankroll (or, to put it better, a list of game/bet-size combinations that have roughly the same risk-of-ruin for the variables of my trip) so I can switch up games when they get boring.
Thanks, that's helpful. As a followup, though, is there some readily available software that I could use to simulate players, as you mentioned? I don't have the math skills to do it myself, alas.
I agree with what you say about PGP, but I'd rather not stick to one game. My hope was to generate a casino trip plan that laid out each game, and the maximum bet at that game that would be reasonably likely to preserve my bankroll (or, to put it better, a list of game/bet-size combinations that have roughly the same risk-of-ruin for the variables of my trip) so I can switch up games when they get boring.
September 15th, 2015 at 5:06:43 PM
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Michael Bluejay has a site that has some answersQuote: keodarkI'm still unable to find any solid calculators, software, or even guides to what is (for me) the most important question:
How do I make a $1000 bankroll last the full four days of my trip, while actually having fun?
and i think shows how to go about average loss and time to play
and maybe have fun too
https://easy.vegas/gambling/bet-size
and
https://easy.vegas/gambling/expectedloss
looks interesting
Last edited by: unnamed administrator on Aug 30, 2019
I Heart Vi Hart
September 15th, 2015 at 5:13:39 PM
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$1000 is respectable enough to be fairly sure it would last several sessions , assuming you find decent minimums.
Lasting for several days, problematic.
The thing is, methods to preserve bankroll run counter to what I consider smarter gambling [assuming negative expectation]. For such smarter gambling, I personally like to look at EV/SD. And I have concluded for one session that you want the EV to be a small percentage of one SD, 10% not being too low. In order for this condition to last over a greater number of bets, the variance has to be high.
So that is the problem. If the variance is high, then it will not serve for general bankroll safety in the short run. Instead you will want to bet games with low variance, and flat-bet too. BJ, Baccarat, Pai Gow Poker, etc. What I would expect from playing that is typically not winning much in a winning session, and usually losing, but not too much. The Wizard's commandment not to hedge can also be violated in order to preserve session bankroll. You can see where that goes.
Personally, I think you have to get over it. Are you a gambler or not type of thing. Gamble the smart way, and if you lose the bankroll, you lose it. Obviously in that scenario, you need to find something else for your time. If that won't work, it's back to plan A above IMO, flat betting games with low variance and low HE too. The SDs can be found in the link.
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
Lasting for several days, problematic.
The thing is, methods to preserve bankroll run counter to what I consider smarter gambling [assuming negative expectation]. For such smarter gambling, I personally like to look at EV/SD. And I have concluded for one session that you want the EV to be a small percentage of one SD, 10% not being too low. In order for this condition to last over a greater number of bets, the variance has to be high.
So that is the problem. If the variance is high, then it will not serve for general bankroll safety in the short run. Instead you will want to bet games with low variance, and flat-bet too. BJ, Baccarat, Pai Gow Poker, etc. What I would expect from playing that is typically not winning much in a winning session, and usually losing, but not too much. The Wizard's commandment not to hedge can also be violated in order to preserve session bankroll. You can see where that goes.
Personally, I think you have to get over it. Are you a gambler or not type of thing. Gamble the smart way, and if you lose the bankroll, you lose it. Obviously in that scenario, you need to find something else for your time. If that won't work, it's back to plan A above IMO, flat betting games with low variance and low HE too. The SDs can be found in the link.
https://wizardofodds.com/gambling/house-edge/
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
September 15th, 2015 at 5:44:08 PM
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Quote: mustangsallyMichael Bluejay has a site that has some answers
and i think shows how to go about average loss and time to play
and maybe have fun too
and
looks interesting
These are very helpful, thanks for the links! If I only I had his simulations, I could calculate that table using my own variables. Sounds like software that someone should write and sell... ;)
September 15th, 2015 at 5:49:50 PM
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@odiousgambit Very good points, thanks! I'm sure you're right, that I need to get over trying to optimize the system, but that's what's fun about math, isn't it? I think I'd actually have more fun trying to optimize the game than actually playing it, but that's just me.
To your point, I'm not a gambler. My goal is not to win money. My goal is to make my 1000 "entertainment dollars" last the entire trip, while simultaneously maximizing both my fun (not punching penny slots 10 hours a day to minimize losses) and my comps (because why not?).
It seems to me the only missing information that is preventing me from doing the above is the calculators/simulators needed to find the risk-of-ruin for each available game with my bankroll, presumably because this is not a mathematical formula, but rather the result of a simulation.
However, see this: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm -- couldn't someone with Excel skills turn that into exactly the calculator/spreadsheet that I'm talking about?
To your point, I'm not a gambler. My goal is not to win money. My goal is to make my 1000 "entertainment dollars" last the entire trip, while simultaneously maximizing both my fun (not punching penny slots 10 hours a day to minimize losses) and my comps (because why not?).
It seems to me the only missing information that is preventing me from doing the above is the calculators/simulators needed to find the risk-of-ruin for each available game with my bankroll, presumably because this is not a mathematical formula, but rather the result of a simulation.
However, see this: http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/content/VPRoR.htm -- couldn't someone with Excel skills turn that into exactly the calculator/spreadsheet that I'm talking about?
September 15th, 2015 at 6:47:25 PM
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i have shown in a few of my posts in the pastQuote: keodarkThese are very helpful, thanks for the links! If I only I had his simulations, I could calculate that table using my own variables. Sounds like software that someone should write and sell... ;)
on how to use ev and sd for risk of ruin calculations
it requires z-scores knowledge and other parameters like avg bet size, bets per hour, hours played etc
the calculations are easy if you can deal with z-scores
i find using Alan Krigman's Excel sheet for survival and RoR to be very useful
and much faster and accurate to use
here is a version on the Excel sheet in Google Sheets
https://goo.gl/WTVSz5
for example
$1000 bankroll and making $100 BS BJ bets
you looked to me to laugh at it
want to play for 32 hours at 50 rounds per hour?
calculator shows (using sheet 1) 14.3257% for surviving 1600 rounds of play
say you would quit with a $2000 bankroll increase or ruin or the 1600 rounds
30.8% success rate
not bad for thinking it is a suicide play
one can play all day with the values in the sheet, i think you have to open it in your Google or download it if you have Excel or Open Office
but you need to know the ev and sd values for the games you wish to play and so on
This Excel sheet from Alan K (he is dead, btw) is based from Don Schlesinger's BJ Attack RoR/ survive formula
i have verified that when the distribution is normal(or very close to it) over N rounds of play it is a very accurate calculator
DS is still a live last I looked too
hope it helps
as you really did not state the games and wagers and number of bets you plan on making
that leaves you with homework, if you choose
good lucks!
I Heart Vi Hart
September 15th, 2015 at 7:09:41 PM
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@mustangsally this is very helpful, thanks, I'll dig into that spreadsheet!
September 15th, 2015 at 9:12:03 PM
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Based on my playing around with the above spreadsheet, I've come to a few slightly useful conclusions (although I had to estimate some values for things like HE on slots and table minimums for tables that change frequently). Take my numbers with a grain of salt, and definitely don't check my math. :D Also, some of these minimums may not qualify for comps at some casinos, so don't assume the comps numbers are correct or even possible.
If my goal is to play a game for as long as I can while maintaining a 10% risk of ruin and playing near the usual minimums at Strip casinos, I can play:
3-2 Blackjack at $25 a hand for 430 hands (~6.14 hours), generating an estimated $86 in comps
6-5 Blackjack (ugh) at $10 a hand for 1650 hands (~23.57 hours), generating an estimated $242 in comps
Let it Ride at $10 a hand for 129 hands (~2.48 hours), generating an estimated $18 in comps
Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em at $10 a hand for 144 hands (~3.6 hours), generating an estimated $14 in comps
Even-money bets at 00 Roulette at $10 a bet for 1019 rounds (~26.82 hours), generating an estimated $214 in comps
Even-money bets at 0 Roulette at $25 a bet for 372 rounds (~9.79 hours), generating an estimated $100 in comps
9/6 Jacks or Better, $1 machine, 5 coins per round for 735 rounds (~1.47 hours), generating an estimated $5 in comps
89% Slots at $1 a spin for 2710 spins (~4.52 hours), generating an estimated $89 in comps.
93% Slots at $5 a spin for 176 spins (~0.29 hours), generating an estimated $17 in comps.
Conclusions:
Don't play Let it Ride or UTH.
Don't play slots, even higher paying ones
The lower minimums on 6-5 blackjack make it a much better deal for cheapskates like me than the Wizard makes it out to be.
I plan to play a little of everything, but I now know to keep my time at Let it Ride and UTH tables to a minimum, and to only play 3-2 BJ if I can find a lower minimum table (or if I'm on the positive side of the variance for everything else and can risk more).
Thanks all!
If my goal is to play a game for as long as I can while maintaining a 10% risk of ruin and playing near the usual minimums at Strip casinos, I can play:
3-2 Blackjack at $25 a hand for 430 hands (~6.14 hours), generating an estimated $86 in comps
6-5 Blackjack (ugh) at $10 a hand for 1650 hands (~23.57 hours), generating an estimated $242 in comps
Let it Ride at $10 a hand for 129 hands (~2.48 hours), generating an estimated $18 in comps
Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em at $10 a hand for 144 hands (~3.6 hours), generating an estimated $14 in comps
Even-money bets at 00 Roulette at $10 a bet for 1019 rounds (~26.82 hours), generating an estimated $214 in comps
Even-money bets at 0 Roulette at $25 a bet for 372 rounds (~9.79 hours), generating an estimated $100 in comps
9/6 Jacks or Better, $1 machine, 5 coins per round for 735 rounds (~1.47 hours), generating an estimated $5 in comps
89% Slots at $1 a spin for 2710 spins (~4.52 hours), generating an estimated $89 in comps.
93% Slots at $5 a spin for 176 spins (~0.29 hours), generating an estimated $17 in comps.
Conclusions:
Don't play Let it Ride or UTH.
Don't play slots, even higher paying ones
The lower minimums on 6-5 blackjack make it a much better deal for cheapskates like me than the Wizard makes it out to be.
I plan to play a little of everything, but I now know to keep my time at Let it Ride and UTH tables to a minimum, and to only play 3-2 BJ if I can find a lower minimum table (or if I'm on the positive side of the variance for everything else and can risk more).
Thanks all!
September 15th, 2015 at 9:59:50 PM
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Quote: keodarkhow do I use that curve to make intelligent decisions about my play? (aka not sitting down at a $100 minimum BJ table with a $1000 bankroll).
$1000 total. 4 days.
Divide by total by (days + 1) = $200. $200 a day is a good target daily budget.
How much do you intend to play a day? 2 hours? 4 hours? Until it's gone? 4 hours would be a comfortable suggestion. Daily budget divided by hours gives... lose less than $50 an hour.
Slots at a typical rate is 600 decisions per hour. Video poker is a little faster, I figure around 800 decisions per hour. Either of these can be slowed with practice.
So, losing $50 over 800 decisions, that's $0.0625 / decision.
I'm picking VP over slots, despite the probably lower comp rate, because slots (and video keno) are mind numbing - put in money, smack the button, maybe get some money back. With VP, you have a decision to make, which I find more engaging. Tables also offer decisions to be made, but higher minimums and fewer decisions per hour and (in my limited experience) significantly lower comp rates for a certain amount of action. Flat-betting $5 blackjack at 150 rounds/hr gets almost nothing for comps (again, my limited subjective experience), where a similar amount of VP play (800 rounds/hour, at around $1 per round) gets a bit more than nothing.
What's the return? Suppose it's bad paytable VP with a few mistakes (but a little luck), around 94%.
Divide your loss per decision by (1-RTP), or $0.0625 / .06 = $1.04 per round. So, you should be able to this on a 3 line nickel game and some 5 line nickel games, or most penny games (except hundred play).
6/5 Bonus Poker*, 3 play, nickels, no multiplier options like STP/DSTP/UX/EDF, and you're playing 75 cents a round. If you're not playing faster than 1 round every 5 seconds, you shouldn't lose much more than your budget. You could play 5 play a little slower at $1.25 a round, or a 3 play multiplier game if you can find one and tolerate the increased volatility (basically, be prepared to play less time if you're not winning).
3 play or 5 play, vs single play, chop the volatility. Sure, you're less likely to get a huge win, but you're also more likely to get a bunch of mid-sized wins along the way.
So... there's that extra $200 there, in case you hit a bad run, or want to play a lot more on your last day, or want to go "buy entertainment" playing some game you hadn't planned on.
From there, you should be able to see how I came to that number. And if you disagree with a part, you should be able to plug in your own numbers and adjust. There will probably be some disagreement
None of this counts any extra value you pick up; hopefully you know the basics of things like vulturing ultimate X, maybe you win $500 free play in a drawing, etc.
I'm sure other people have better ways of figuring out their bankroll vs play requirements, but this method usually works for my needs.
*On what game to play: 6/5 BP is awful, and I hope you can find better. If you can find a 500/9/6 Jacks or Better, that would be significantly better, and that's awful too. 8/5 Jacks or Better is better than 6/5 BP. In any case, if your goal is to make your money last a while I do not recommend playing any video poker where two pair doesn't pay 2 and three of a kind doesn't pay 3 - which limits your options to JoB and certain flavors of BP.
May the cards fall in your favor.
September 16th, 2015 at 2:44:59 AM
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Quote: keodarkHello,
Wizardofodds.com and Gambling 102 have been extremely helpful in planning my play for my upcoming trip to Vegas (Mandalay Bay). I'm not able to gamble often, and I want to maximize my time, hence the research.
Basically, despite spending hours learning basic strategies and determining house edges, calculating comp returns for various games, learning about volatility/variance, and making a pretty involved theo spreadsheet, I'm still unable to find any solid calculators, software, or even guides to what is (for me) the most important question:
How do I make a $1000 bankroll last the full four days of my trip, while actually having fun?
I could put $1000 on red my first 10 minutes on the floor, lose, and resign myself to sitting by the pool for four days. I could also sit at a penny slot machine, betting 1 line every 10 minutes and walk out four days later with $950 in my wallet and no comps. Where's the middle ground, and how do I optimize it, mathematically speaking?
TL;DR: In other words, how do I calculate how many hours of play a bankroll of $X will last, given a game with a standard deviation of σ, a house edge of y, at an outlay of $b per hour (a function of game speed and average bet)? Since the answer to that question is probably an equation with a bell curve, the follow-up question is, how do I use that curve to make intelligent decisions about my play? (aka not sitting down at a $100 minimum BJ table with a $1000 bankroll).
Thanks!
Using EV, HE, Wager, Variance, SD, you can make a spreadsheet and calculate what -1 SD and -2 SDs are.
EV = Wager * -HE
CUMULATIVE_EV = sum of all EVs
$_SD = SD * Wager
$_Var = $_SD^2
$_CUMULATIVE_VAR = Sum of all $_VARs
$_CUMULATIVE_SD = $_CUMULATIVE_VAR ^ 0.5
-1_SD = CUM_EV - CUM_SD
-2_SD = CUM_EV - (CUM_SD * 2)
It gets a little more confusing with other games, because SD and Variance are a function of the average total bet, not initial bet. For example, playing $5 UTH, the standard deviation is based on how much you bet on average (ie: with raises n whatnot).
I'm sure MustySally is gonna respond to my post saying how wrong I am in every way. Whatever. His prerogative.
Hopefully this turns out OK, this is a snippet of what I just did in Excel:
hand # wager HE EV SD Cum Var Cum SD Cum EV -1 SD
1 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 132 12 -0.05 -12
2 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 265 16 -0.1 -16
3 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 397 20 -0.15 -20
4 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 529 23 -0.2 -23
5 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 661 26 -0.25 -26
6 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 794 28 -0.3 -28
7 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 926 30 -0.35 -31
8 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 1058 33 -0.4 -33
9 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 1190 35 -0.45 -35
10 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 1323 36 -0.5 -37
11 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 1455 38 -0.55 -39
12 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 1587 40 -0.6 -40
13 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 1719 41 -0.65 -42
14 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 1852 43 -0.7 -44
15 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 1984 45 -0.75 -45
16 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 2116 46 -0.8 -47
17 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 2248 47 -0.85 -48
18 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 2381 49 -0.9 -50
19 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 2513 50 -0.95 -51
20 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 2645 51 -1 -52
21 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 2777 53 -1.05 -54
22 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 2910 54 -1.1 -55
23 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 3042 55 -1.15 -56
24 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 3174 56 -1.2 -58
25 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 3306 58 -1.25 -59
26 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 3439 59 -1.3 -60
27 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 3571 60 -1.35 -61
28 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 3703 61 -1.4 -62
29 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 3835 62 -1.45 -63
30 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 3968 63 -1.5 -64
31 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 4100 64 -1.55 -66
32 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 4232 65 -1.6 -67
33 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 4364 66 -1.65 -68
34 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 4497 67 -1.7 -69
35 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 4629 68 -1.75 -70
36 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 4761 69 -1.8 -71
37 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 4893 70 -1.85 -72
38 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 5026 71 -1.9 -73
39 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 5158 72 -1.95 -74
40 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 5290 73 -2 -75
41 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 5422 74 -2.05 -76
42 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 5555 75 -2.1 -77
43 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 5687 75 -2.15 -78
44 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 5819 76 -2.2 -78
45 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 5951 77 -2.25 -79
46 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 6084 78 -2.3 -80
47 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 6216 79 -2.35 -81
48 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 6348 80 -2.4 -82
49 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 6480 81 -2.45 -83
50 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 6613 81 -2.5 -84
51 10 -0.005 -0.05 11.5 6745 82 -2.55 -85
I formatted the numbers so they'd show a little better and wouldn't have like 10 decimal places after them, but that's the idea.
Do your worst, MustySally!
September 16th, 2015 at 2:55:48 AM
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I think you're in the perfect situation money wize and the attitude to actually have longevity, fun, and get decent + EV. You could have a good chance of actually being ahead( if done right).Quote: keodarkHello,
Wizardofodds.com and Gambling 102 have been extremely helpful in planning my play for my upcoming trip to Vegas (Mandalay Bay). I'm not able to gamble often, and I want to maximize my time, hence the research.
Basically, despite spending hours learning basic strategies and determining house edges, calculating comp returns for various games, learning about volatility/variance, and making a pretty involved theo spreadsheet, I'm still unable to find any solid calculators, software, or even guides to what is (for me) the most important question:
How do I make a $1000 bankroll last the full four days of my trip, while actually having fun?
I could put $1000 on red my first 10 minutes on the floor, lose, and resign myself to sitting by the pool for four days. I could also sit at a penny slot machine, betting 1 line every 10 minutes and walk out four days later with $950 in my wallet and no comps. Where's the middle ground, and how do I optimize it, mathematically speaking?
TL;DR: In other words, how do I calculate how many hours of play a bankroll of $X will last, given a game with a standard deviation of σ, a house edge of y, at an outlay of $b per hour (a function of game speed and average bet)? Since the answer to that question is probably an equation with a bell curve, the follow-up question is, how do I use that curve to make intelligent decisions about my play? (aka not sitting down at a $100 minimum BJ table with a $1000 bankroll).
Thanks!
It's very refreshing to see someone new who isn't asking how to turn their $1,000 into $XX,XXX, or whatever goofy crap they c seem toome up with.
Feel free to PM me, I may have some good stuff with a variety of actual play, action, entertainment and comps for you (without an exhausting nickel and dimming regime).
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
September 17th, 2015 at 4:35:53 AM
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Quote: keodarkHow do I make a $1000 bankroll last the full four days of my trip, while actually having fun?
No game is more entertaining than Craps.
You play on your feet and you get physically involved.
Since you're not out to break the bank, find a $5 or $10 Craps game and bet only the DP or Pl with no odds.
This has the same SD as Baccarat, so the volatility is just as low.
It takes an average of 3.7 rolls to resolve a craps bet. At 120 rolls per hour, you will only be averaging 32 bets per hour.
This is less than half the bets you would be making per hour if you played Baccarat, which has a $25 minimum on the Strip.
Over time you are expected to win slightly half of your DP or Pl bets.
You could also get lucky and win.
September 17th, 2015 at 7:23:52 AM
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I can not due anys worsts thans yous didQuote: RSUsing EV, HE, Wager, Variance, SD, you can make a spreadsheet and calculate what -1 SD and -2 SDs are.
I'm sure MustySally is gonna respond to my post saying how wrong I am in every way. Whatever. His prerogative.
Do your worst, MustySally!
you did just worse, thats is fine
i hops you due nou use 1sd for Risk of Ruin as your s ruinsdr valueds will be abouts 50% of actuals ruints valurts
that is advanced math stufffs that NO ONE here at WOV cares abouts
so we leave it atts thatts
it can nntknot getets worse
for ruin
Mustang Sally
"you are fired!"
I Heart Vi Hart
September 17th, 2015 at 7:35:38 AM
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I do not think that spreadsheet will be of any use for VP or Slots that have less than say 500,000 rounds playedQuote: keodarkIf my goal is to play a game for as long as I can while maintaining a 10% risk of ruin and playing near the usual minimums at Strip casinos, I can play:
9/6 Jacks or Better, $1 machine, 5 coins per round for 735 rounds (~1.47 hours), generating an estimated $5 in comps
89% Slots at $1 a spin for 2710 spins (~4.52 hours), generating an estimated $89 in comps.
93% Slots at $5 a spin for 176 spins (~0.29 hours), generating an estimated $17 in comps.
for that spreadsheet to be accurate, the distribution of the possible outcomes really need to look to be a normal curve (the bell curve) and not a bell curve drawn by a 2 year old
just what it is
have fun!
more on the normal curve
https://www.mathsisfun.com/data/standard-normal-distribution.html
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
folks like RS (a member here 2)
thinks ALL distributions in casino games
always
follow
the
curve
exactly, and that is not so...
but that is from the belief, a false one - like believing in a false God,
that the more you play, your actual losses from gambling will be almost the house edge times your total action
that is so false and totally takes variance out of the picture
and variance does not like being out of the picture
other false believers in that concept are gambling experts like
Frank Scoblete, John Grochowski, John Robison, Jerry Stickman, Henry Tamburin, just to name a few
i suggest to stay away from their writings and only read them for entertainment value.
you are good to prove things to yourself as i do often
simulations, where the code is accurate, helps out also
all of this is just my opinion of course
we all have opinion(s) too
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 17th, 2015 at 7:44:06 AM
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i say an Angel baseball game is way more entertaining than crapsQuote: TankoNo game is more entertaining than Craps.
but thank you for sharing your thought
not at Harrah's Rincon Casino in SoCalQuote: TankoYou play on your feet and you get physically involved.
they all sit down, funny to see
try 49.3% and that is less than 50% or halfQuote: TankoOver time you are expected to win slightly half of your DP or Pl bets.
nice try
one could win 50% by luck and bet selection methods not taught in grade school
but expect to lose and when you do winQuote: TankoYou could also get lucky and win.
it will taste so much sweeter
this is from Clint Eastwood
thank you for your comments!
I always enjoy them
thank you again
I Heart Vi Hart
September 17th, 2015 at 8:30:52 AM
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most gamblers are not smart to start with,imo , in other words, they are not the smartest acorn that fell from the tree.Quote: odiousgambitFor such smarter gambling, I personally like to look at EV/SD.
Sally hates dogs!
at least all dogs go to Heaven where they belong.
ok, la la tea da
Oh yes yes
and og
hey hey hey
you do know one can use ev and sd to calculate a Risk of Ruin probability that is very close to actual calculated values
this has been shown B4 too, by other than me (Alan S)
no examples here as this is a very un-popular topic of conversation
by many cuz of math
math
and
math
<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
and the math does not take into consideration the actual gambling process
here is a dream i had a few days ago to show the point
Alan M (i will call him, never met him) says
"your gambling session will be what happens when it happens, so ANYTHING can happen"
so I placed 100 red ping pong balls in a box as Alan watched and told him that now we can play a fun game.
He almost cried!
ok
the rule, bet $1 and if you draw a blue ping pong pong ball from the box, with your eyes closed of course, i pay you $100
if a red ball is drawn i keep your $1
he said
"Lets Play!"
I said, are you sure?
there is no way for you to win.
he replied "Anything can happen, and even if I don't win, it will be fun"
and it was time for breakfast
thought i share that to all
thank you for sharing
Sally
I Heart Vi Hart
September 17th, 2015 at 9:03:27 AM
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Quote: mustangsallynot at Harrah's Rincon Casino in SoCal
they all sit down, funny to see
Yes. I was there two weeks ago.
Very odd sight.
September 17th, 2015 at 12:35:43 PM
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Quote: TankoYes. I was there two weeks ago.
Very odd sight.
I'm not sure I would enjoy sitting at a craps table at all, also you have the annoying beeping coming from your neighbors' Apple watch telling to get up every 20 minutes :)
So Wizard, still no basic strategy for strip poker huh?
September 17th, 2015 at 1:44:27 PM
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Quote: TankoNo game is more entertaining than Craps.
You play on your feet and you get physically involved.
Since you're not out to break the bank, find a $5 or $10 Craps game and bet only the DP or Pl with no odds
Since Craps is my favorite game, I can't disagree. But I will say that exactly what you describe exactly makes a fun game a boring game to many. Which is why you see very few sticking to just such.
Quote: mustangsally
and og
hey hey hey
so nice to be mentioned!
Quote:you do know one can use ev and sd to calculate a Risk of Ruin probability that is very close to actual calculated values
this has been shown B4 too, by other than me (Alan S)
no examples here as this is a very un-popular topic of conversation
by many cuz of math
It is because of the math that going that far with it makes it unpopular with me. Plus - I suppose this sounds odd - what I want to know is how much action in gambling is smart*, and how much is stupid. Not so much what the chance of blowing the bankroll is. The bankroll can be safe while EV approaches close to one SD and that is still stupid.
*yes you can say this is the wrong word for any negative expectation wager. To say "less stupid than in other cases" takes too many words though LOL
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
October 19th, 2015 at 11:04:57 AM
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For me, the solution is simple.
4 days - $250 day.
Take into account meals, shows, etc.
2 factors impact your potential disappointment.
Unrealistic expectations
Unrealized expectations
If you have the discipline, just take the 250, and calculate how much time you'll spend actually in the casino gambling.
If you have a string of bad luck - not that much time, but it all depends on the stakes.
For video poker, you could just as easily play 1 coin as 5 coins - though it is recommended to play with max coins in case you hit a royal.
For black jack - in Mandalay Bay - It's been a dozen years since i was there - I suspect the minimum may be $10 for blackjack, and not $5. Even with best play, 250 bucks can go fairly quickly with a bad shoe.
You can do it - but I think you'll have more fun saving the grand until the last day and going a little crazy. But, that's just what I would do. Playing nickel or quarter video poker would just bore me, unless I hit a Royal - 1 shot in 40k hands. Pretty slim odds of amusement.
4 days - $250 day.
Take into account meals, shows, etc.
2 factors impact your potential disappointment.
Unrealistic expectations
Unrealized expectations
If you have the discipline, just take the 250, and calculate how much time you'll spend actually in the casino gambling.
If you have a string of bad luck - not that much time, but it all depends on the stakes.
For video poker, you could just as easily play 1 coin as 5 coins - though it is recommended to play with max coins in case you hit a royal.
For black jack - in Mandalay Bay - It's been a dozen years since i was there - I suspect the minimum may be $10 for blackjack, and not $5. Even with best play, 250 bucks can go fairly quickly with a bad shoe.
You can do it - but I think you'll have more fun saving the grand until the last day and going a little crazy. But, that's just what I would do. Playing nickel or quarter video poker would just bore me, unless I hit a Royal - 1 shot in 40k hands. Pretty slim odds of amusement.
"Those who have no idea what they are doing, genuinely have no idea that they don't know what they are doing." - John Cleese
