Regarding slots randomness

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I have a six-inch stack of par sheets that show slot machine are designed how I state on my site. I've also deconstructed some to show exactly how they work. I don't have time to go through it all again in this thread.

Nevada law requires that all reels are independent, and that all spins are independent.

I trust that the slot machines in Nevada casinos are fair because the law requires them to be, and cheating seems to be a poor idea from a risk-reward standpoint. You don't need to cheat to win at a game with a 10% edge; you just need to let people bet and let math take its course, especially when the penalty for getting caught is so large.

Other jurisdictions do not necessarily have these laws, and several online casinos have essentially no oversight, so I would not make the same argument for online casinos.

Also, several people on this forum have done math for companies who make slot machines in the past, and they can confirm that they work that way.

Also, your application of Bayes' theorem is incorrect. You seem to be assuming that all reels are weighted equally, which they are not (at least, not necessarily). They must be independent, but not necessarily equal.

However, if you really feel this way, just don't play.

There is no such thing as a truly random slot machine; computers are simply incapable of actual randomness.

"First I'd like to say I've personally encountered category 3 (rigged) slots/spins/etc. I'm sure some of you have as well. Some I have solid proof of non-randomness. One spin wheel i encountered, has a ~90% tendency to land on 3 out of 36 of $0.01 payouts. What's even more ridiculous was you could just refresh the page and it'll give you a totally different wheel with the $0.01 placed in different locations, but still end up with $0.01."

This is a result of how online slots work. When you play the slot the computer uses a RNG to decide what the result is. Once it decides this result it sends you an image of reels in a configuration that would pay that much. In the case of refreshing it will show them in a different spot because the game itself has no physical reels it just has weights.

Quote: Wizard

I have a six-inch stack of par sheets that show slot machine are designed how I state on my site. I've also deconstructed some to show exactly how they work. I don't have time to go through it all again in this thread.

Thanks wiz. Anything of that 6 inch stack you published that you can link me? Or are they all private? If you say you have proof I'll believe you either way.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Nevada law requires that all reels are independent, and that all spins are independent.

I trust that the slot machines in Nevada casinos are fair because the law requires them to be, and cheating seems to be a poor idea from a risk-reward standpoint. You don't need to cheat to win at a game with a 10% edge; you just need to let people bet and let math take its course, especially when the penalty for getting caught is so large.

Other jurisdictions do not necessarily have these laws, and several online casinos have essentially no oversight, so I would not make the same argument for online casinos.

Also, several people on this forum have done math for companies who make slot machines in the past, and they can confirm that they work that way.

Also, your application of Bayes' theorem is incorrect. You seem to be assuming that all reels are weighted equally, which they are not (at least, not necessarily). They must be independent, but not necessarily equal.

However, if you really feel this way, just don't play.

So can you clarify, a 7 on the first 2 wheels does not have to have the same probability as the one on the 3rd according to nevada law?

Quote: geoff

There is no such thing as a truly random slot machine; computers are simply incapable of actual randomness.

"First I'd like to say I've personally encountered category 3 (rigged) slots/spins/etc. I'm sure some of you have as well. Some I have solid proof of non-randomness. One spin wheel i encountered, has a ~90% tendency to land on 3 out of 36 of $0.01 payouts. What's even more ridiculous was you could just refresh the page and it'll give you a totally different wheel with the $0.01 placed in different locations, but still end up with $0.01."

This is a result of how online slots work. When you play the slot the computer uses a RNG to decide what the result is. Once it decides this result it sends you an image of reels in a configuration that would pay that much. In the case of refreshing it will show them in a different spot because the game itself has no physical reels it just has weights.

philosophical question for you sir, what is capable of true randomness? Are humans capable of true randomness?

Quote: Neutrino

I watched a video a while ago (sorry I forgot where it came from) of a guy showing how slots often give you "Teasers". Which are things like "7 7 orange", "bar bar 7", etc. These are supposed to make you think "damn, so close" so that you would keep trying and lose all your money. and these show up around like half the time he demonstrated the slots. Now, even without collecting information about what weight (therefore probability) each icon has, you can already calculate your "supposed chance" of hitting the jackpot, assuming if the slot is indeed random. How? Bayes theorem. Given the chance of 2 7's is 50%, chance of a 777 jackpot should be ~35%.

But the real problem with teasers is simply that the mere existence of teasers shows the slots are programmed therefore not random. If the slot is random how does the teaser show up so much?


Once again, the short version of my question: Do you have proof of this or is this an assumption?




Note to everyone else reading the thread: I will be monitoring my thread for biased/propaganda information. If you have something to say please back it up with evidence.

I could design a slot machine that is completely random and have the symbols 7 7 blank come up 99.9% of the time with the third reel having a 7 above or below the payline. It is just a matter of weighting the symbols. BTW, in Nevada that is against the regs.

Quote: Neutrino

philosophical question for you sir, what is capable of true randomness? Are humans capable of true randomness?

That's an interesting question. True randomness in nature has sort of come and gone in what people thought existed. A cloud of smoke being blown from a smoker towards the ceiling seems pretty random, but given the knowledge of all variable involved and infinite computing power we could predict the result so it's not really random. I'm told that recently some physicists have discovered truly random particles so it may truly exist if only at the quantum level.

Human beings are not really random in the same way the cloud of smoke is not really random. We are the sum of prior events and given all the information an outsider could predict what we would do and when we would do it.

Quote: Neutrino

So can you clarify, a 7 on the first 2 wheels does not have to have the same probability as the one on the 3rd according to nevada law?

I can, and yes, that is correct. The "independence of reels" law means that the probability of a 7 (actually, a particular "7" symbol, if a reel has more than one) showing up on the second reel cannot be changed based on whether or not a 7 appears on the first reel (or how close the 7 is on the first reel, for that matter).

Quote: Neutrino

So can you clarify, a 7 on the first 2 wheels does not have to have the same probability as the one on the 3rd according to nevada law?

That is correct. On most slot machines every reel is weighted independently.

Quote: Neutrino

So can you clarify, a 7 on the first 2 wheels does not have to have the same probability as the one on the 3rd according to nevada law?

That is correct, by my understanding. They must be independent, but not necessarily equal.

If you look at any of the Wizard's deconstructions, he never assumes that the reels are all equally weighted. He does, however, assume that they are all independent.

Quote: DRich

I could design a slot machine that is completely random and have the symbols 7 7 blank come up 99.9% of the time with the third reel having a 7 above or below the payline. It is just a matter of weighting the symbols. BTW, in Nevada that is against the regs.

Yes, I remember someone (MathExtremist?) say there are limits on the differences in probability of adjacent wheel stops. I don't remember the exact numbers though.

I now understand the 3rd wheel does not have to follow the same probability as the first 2. While I understand it's legal, in my opinion it's misguiding and is somewhat ethically questionable.

Quote: geoff

That's an interesting question. True randomness in nature has sort of come and gone in what people thought existed. A cloud of smoke being blown from a smoker towards the ceiling seems pretty random, but given the knowledge of all variable involved and infinite computing power we could predict the result so it's not really random. I'm told that recently some physicists have discovered truly random particles so it may truly exist if only at the quantum level.

Human beings are not really random in the same way the cloud of smoke is not really random. We are the sum of prior events and given all the information an outsider could predict what we would do and when we would do it.

Ah yes I think I agree with you on that. Although I don't know what my stance is on quantum randomness.

However, people who believe in free will will probably jump at you for your statement of "We are the sum of prior events"

Quote: Neutrino

I now understand the 3rd wheel does not have to follow the same probability as the first 2. While I understand it's legal, in my opinion it's misguiding and is somewhat ethically questionable.

The reels don't even all have to have the same symbols. They couldn't possibly be equally weighed.

Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Yes, I remember someone (MathExtremist?) say there are limits on the differences in probability of adjacent wheel stops. I don't remember the exact numbers though.

I read somewhere - I can't remember where, and I don't think it was an "authoritative" source - that the probabilities of landing on two adjacent symbols could not differ by more than a 6:1 ratio. However, this is not listed anywhere in the Nevada Gaming Regulations.

Quote: Neutrino

I now understand the 3rd wheel does not have to follow the same probability as the first 2. While I understand it's legal, in my opinion it's misguiding and is somewhat ethically questionable.

Perhaps, but keep in mind it is illegal (in Nevada, at least) to do something far more "ethically questionable" by making it more likely for a jackpot symbol to appear on the second and/or third reel if the first reel does not show one.

Quote: Neutrino

philosophical question for you sir, what is capable of true randomness? Are humans capable of true randomness?

That is a good question.

I'd have to say whether humans are capable of true randomness is unknown, as I can clear my thoughts and someone can ask me to pick a number between 1 and 10, and a number will pop into my head, but the mechanisims that brought that number up are not known to me or science at this point (I don't believe), like if I have a pre-determined way that selected that number, like certain neurons firing off that could could be evaluted before or afterwards to see how that number came about.

I believe the only thing in nature capable of true randomness is the decay of an atom, but there is a dead/alive cat that may or may not agree or disagree with me on that.