BigTip
BigTip
Joined: May 25, 2010
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March 1st, 2014 at 9:13:39 AM permalink
I brought this up on the long thread about Free Bet Blackjack but there was no real answer. I am posting here because it looks like this is the "Ask the Wizard" spot. Feel free to move it if it is in the wrong forum.

Geoff commented after my post, but did not respond to my question. I am thinking that it might be a conflict of interest for him to say, "Yes, a Martingale will destroy my game." If it does work against the house then of course every casino would not be interested in keeping the game going. I would understand his reluctance to comment.

Someone did say that you don't win as many hands in Free Bet because of the 22 pushes. But for a Martingale that really is not a factor. You lose hands at the same rate as regular blackjack. The rate of losing is the important thing.

I know that a Martingale has the exact same odds as flat betting in every game it can be used in. But the unique "Free" bet might change that. Large potential wins without having to risk anything? Certainly that has to factor in some how.

But I am no math guy. So, do the number of times the splits and doubles come up, and win, make a Martigale work in this unique game? Will it decrease the house edge at all?

No lectures about the how the Martingale is the road to ruin please! I have used it intermittently for years at regular blackjack so I am well aware of the highs and lows of it. In the discussions of it I always say, "It's not magic. It won't beat the house. It's just another way to play and it gives me entertainment."

When I am playing my Martingale I usually allow six bets in a row to lose. That means 63 units lost when it happens. So the question was always what was the average number of hands you will win before you lose 6 hands in a row. But it got confusing sometimes when I was on the, say third hand of the progression, and had a doubling situation. It would be lots easier to keep track of with Free Bet.

Anyway, just wondering.
BigTip
BigTip
Joined: May 25, 2010
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March 1st, 2014 at 10:03:12 AM permalink
By the way, I am going to be super pissed if when I go in April, all the tables say, "Maximum 3 bet spread" or something to combat my plan. lol
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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March 1st, 2014 at 10:19:12 AM permalink
Quote: BigTip

"It's not magic. It won't beat the house. It's just another way to play and it gives me entertainment."

Anyway, just wondering.



You gave yourself the correct answer.

Like every Martingale, you will be able to eke out small wins more often than the one big loss. But you will NEVER be a favorite to double your starting bankroll before losing it all.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
Joined: Jan 5, 2012
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March 1st, 2014 at 10:20:01 AM permalink
No. </thread>
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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March 1st, 2014 at 11:50:45 AM permalink
Yeah it would be great to get all those free bets and then win them after you've Martingaled yourself up to a big bet.

But there's no reason to think you'll win them more often when you have the big bet up. Or that you'll even get the free bets before resetting to the base bet.

So you're back to Square One:
Martingale sucks.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ 覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧覧 Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
BigTip
BigTip
Joined: May 25, 2010
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March 1st, 2014 at 1:29:07 PM permalink
I call games like 3 Card Poker, and Let it Ride, table slot games. Meaning that there are like playing slot machines with higher house edges, with the chance of hitting it big, a jackpot.

This game is sort of the same way, but without the really big house edge. Think about it. The object of a Martingale on a regular table is to eventually win a hand that nets an overall one unit gain. The best thing that can happen without risking more money is to get a blackjack with the "big" bet out and jump way ahead in my goal of winning 63 units before enduring six losses in a row. It has happened many times for me. But blackjacks are a small percentage of hands played, even a smaller percentage happening with the 8, 16, or 32 unit bet out there.

But now along comes this game, with it's opportunity to win more than just one overall unit on each bet, coming much more often. And the best thing that can happen is much better than a measly blackjack. I had hands with six bets out twice this trip, but only risking one real money one.

I know most of you are use to saying Martingale sucks. Believe me, I know that. I am just looking for the math of it to see if the new wrinkles of this game affects that. I can't think of another game that has a similar aspect to it so we have never had to look at it before.
Neutrino
Neutrino
Joined: Feb 20, 2014
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March 1st, 2014 at 11:20:58 PM permalink
Wow you're the first one here that I've seen who understands "betting systems" as a method of betting to accomplish whatever purpose rather than "a method of betting to accomplish +EV from a -EV game"

I thought I'd be alone in that thought forever, ha
iYahmes
iYahmes
Joined: Dec 2, 2020
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December 2nd, 2020 at 2:11:56 PM permalink
Digging this up from 2014 because I sometimes play Martingale against all advice and just for entertainment. It's got me into trouble but also saved my stack a few times. I understand the statistics behind it show I'm only condensing 2, 4, 8, etc. hands into one with the same odds and that losing x hands in a row has no bearing on if I'll win/lose the next one. I get it! Now... what I also get is that when playing free bet, the odds of "losing" are the same as blackjack but the potential for big wins while betting big are higher. What I lack is the software and know-how to calculate these odds out over a million hands. I used this method quite successfully last month and have been itching to figure out if it was a fluke or actually a sound strategy. I am not an advantage player and can't count or anything along those lines.

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