BIG QUESTION REGARDING INCREASING ODDS/NEED MATHEMATICIANS
Quote: paigow1986everyone knows that when you go to a casino and want to play CARNIVAL games(not blackjack), that most casinos will only let you play 1 hand.
Why is that. What's the difference to the casino who
they pay, you or the stranger next to you.
I think perhaps that should be that SOME casinos enforce a one-hand rule but its usually the smaller, sweat the money type places with staff that believe card counters are all around them and able to take the casino's money at will.Quote: paigow1986everyone knows that when you go to a casino and want to play CARNIVAL games(not blackjack), that most casinos will only let you play 1 hand.
If the place ain't crowded ... even Let It Die (LIR) or Pai Gow will be multiple hands, particularly if you raise your betting level.
Quote: wudgedI don't know if this would apply to all these carnival games, but if you take UTH for example, instead of going all-in (or whatever the equivalent is, I don't play it and am not entirely familiar with it) when you have a potential royal or other high paying hand, you could check your other hands to determine whether or not you even have a chance of hitting it. This is also assuming that sharing hands with other players is frowned upon.
It does make a small difference, but for UTH not enough to overcome the house edge.
As for the question at hand, the odds of having a winning session will be higher while playing 1 hand. Your average expected loss will be the same though as playing 6 $5 hands. One $30 hand increases your variance, leading to either bigger wins or losses, while 6 $5 hands would lower your swings obviously.
Quote: paigow1986for instance, what you guys are saying is that a guy playing one hand for $30(on trips or better) has just as much a chance of winning money as the guy betting 6 hands at $5 a piece(on trips or better)?
What do you consider winning money? The guy betting 6 hands $5 at a time might hit a bonus and still have a net loss. For example, on a given round, he might hit trips or a straight on one hand and still lose $5 or $10 net. The guy playing $30 on one hand must either win or lose on each individual round.
Quote: paigow1986understood, thats why i need a mathematician. because my overall question is does playing more than 1 hand increase your odds of winning money, even if its the smallest most miniscule fraction of a percent. if it were ran through a computer over a million times, would it show that your odds of winning money had increased, decreased, or kept your odds exactly the same? especially on carnival games when you're looking to get that big bonus, like in pai gow, getting the royal flush, or the five aces, or the 6 or 7 card straight flush. does it make sense that one person playing one hand have the same odds of winning money as another guy playing 6 hands?
Maybe not 1 million hands, but the answer you are looking for is that it will be exactly the same. $30 exposed to the HE is $30 exposed to the HE, whether it be six $5 bets or one $30 bet. As far as winning money in a given session, you are more likely to win money at one session if you just bet the one hand at $30 (similar to the idea of taking max odds at craps rather than spreading money all over the table) because your variance goes up. As was said before, increased variance will lead to wilder swings of wins and losses, but does increase your chances of winning any one session at a table. The six $5 bets are ground down more slowly and while the $30 is either going to win or lose on every hand, the six bets of $5 will frequently win or lose somewhere between $5 and $30 per hand.
Quote: paigow1986understood, thats why i need a mathematician. because my overall question is does playing more than 1 hand increase your odds of winning money, even if its the smallest most miniscule fraction of a percent. if it were ran through a computer over a million times, would it show that your odds of winning money had increased, decreased, or kept your odds exactly the same? especially on carnival games when you're looking to get that big bonus, like in pai gow, getting the royal flush, or the five aces, or the 6 or 7 card straight flush. does it make sense that one person playing one hand have the same odds of winning money as another guy playing 6 hands?
The odds of winning > $0 (not that important, imo), playing one hand is better.
Your expected average result (much more important, imo), it makes no difference what you do. At least when you don't include the bonus bets, which you keep talking about. If the bonus bets include flat envy payouts, then you are better off betting those as small as possible to get the envy payout. But if you bet $5 on every bonus bet, even the $30 hands, you are much better playing the one $30 + $5 hand vs. 6 $5+$5 hands because bonus bets are worse than the main game. If you play $30+$30, then playing 6 $5+$5 bets is slightly better for your average result, although the percentage of your actual win will be lower since you will play more hands 6-handed.
ill bust out another example, lets use ultimate texas hold em. lets say im playing ONLY bonus's on uth at $5 a piece, the flop comes out and there three 7's right off the bat. the fact that the one guy playing 6 hands and getting 12 cards (to see if he has the fourth 7) doesn't increase his odds at all as opposed to the other guy playing 1 hand at $30....doesn't make any sense... lets not forget the fact either that of those 6 hands, that person can possibly be holding a pair down and be getting paid a full house.....but i guess its ALL THE SAME....glad i came here and got knowledge first hand from the experts themselves lolz.
Quote: paigow1986
ill bust out another example, lets use ultimate texas hold em. lets say im playing ONLY bonus's on uth at $5 a piece, the flop comes out and there three 7's right off the bat. the fact that the one guy playing 6 hands and getting 12 cards (to see if he has the fourth 7) doesn't increase his odds at all as opposed to the other guy playing 1 hand at $30....doesn't make any sense... lets not forget the fact either that of those 6 hands, that person can possibly be holding a pair down and be getting paid a full house.....but i guess its ALL THE SAME....glad i came here and got knowledge first hand from the experts themselves lolz.
But you're focusing on the positive flops. When the flop is garbage, now you have 6 losers instead of 1 loser. In the end the probabilities average out to be the same whether you play 6 hands or 1 and your expectation is exactly the same, approximately -3% for the UTH trips bet. The only thing that changes is the variance. The more hands you play, the more your actual results get smoothed out.
(i) Typical side bet or one-spin: bet, receive a hand/result, get paid solely on how good that hand is regardless of other factors.
Compare this with roulette, the choice is whether to put $30 on one number or $5 on six different ones. They both have the same average HE but the former has a higher variance.
(ii) Side bet in a card game - bet, receive a hand/result, get paid solely on how good that hand but probability of different results may be affected by other hands.
Sometimes there will be a positive correlation - i.e. if hand A wins then hand B is more likely to win, on the other hand if hand B wins then hand B is less likely to win (perfect pairs is an example of this).
Sometimes there will be a negative correlation - e.g. if you playing a side bet based on 7s, if hand A has a seven then hand B is less likely to have one.
All these tend to do is reduce or increase the variance.
(iii) Side bets with Envy or jackpot - i.e. if hand A wins a jackpot then hand B receives a bonus (and vice versa).
This is the only case where it's actually better to play multiple hands but you probably don't have the option to play different stakes (or I've seen where the jackpot includes a large multiplier of the bet - so it only makes sense to bet the minimum).
(If there's no envy then only play ONE hand, due to the small chances of both hands winning).
(iv) Playing against a dealer. What this does is reduce the variance. If you play head to head then you will either win the lot or lose the lot (or standoff). If you play six hands - then against a good dealer card you may not necessarily lose all six hands - similarly against a bad dealer card you may not win all six - thus this slightly reduces the swings. I'm ignoring the effects of increased knowledge or correlation.
in summary the HE applies to each bet whether $30 or 6x$5. Typically the variance will reduce with more smaller bets rather than one large one - consider one spin on a $100 fruit machine compared with a hundred spins on a $1 one.
Quote: paigow1986lets focus on the bad flops then. when the flop is bad, the one guy betting $30, LOSES $30!!!.....the other guy playing 6 hands at $5, loses $30 as well, but at least he had 6 chances, and 12 cards to look at it! wouldn't it be the same as playing the lottery? wouldn't the guy who played 10 lines as opposed to 1 line have increased odds of winning money?? whether it be just the powerball number, or 4 of the 5 numbers etc.. wouldn't it make more sense that if i went to play the lottery, and you (tringlomane) were standing right beside me, you buy 1 ticket, i buy 100, would you turn around and tell me "your odds are exactly the same as mine, the more lines you play, the more your actual results get smoothed out, but your odds of winning money are no greater than mine"...people would laugh at you my friend. in the beginning of this, in my original post, i asked for mathematicians, someone that went to school and got some sort of math degree so we can put this into an equation and figure this out?!
Sorry, if you paid me to do it, I would have definitely got to it faster with computer simulations and/or more concrete examples that would have taken me more than five minutes of my time to do/explain to those that are poorer in math than I am.
<--- PhD in chemical engineering in need of a job.
Quote: paigow1986im happy someone actually took the time to break it down for me like that. i was actually waiting to see something like that. so what you're trying to say, in a nutshell, is pretty much what everyone else is saying, whether you play 1 or 6 hands on a carnival game, your odds of winning money don't change. well please explain this. a buddy of mine said the same thing you guys all did, i disagreed with him so did a few other friends of mine, we figured that if you got to play more hands and see more cards, your chances of getting that big bonus bet is OBVIOUSLY higher. so he decided to be the house, and me and my other friends would be players, and he allowed us to play up to 6 hands, and bet all the bonus's, he even let us bet JUST the bonus's(games such as pai gow, uth, 4 card poker). this has been going on for about 2 years now(about 10,000 hands dealt out), i originally bought in for $100, and now i am up on him nearly $10,000($6000 of that in just the last 2 months). also keep in mind, i haven't hit anything epic such as five aces, 6 or 7 card straight flush, or even a royal flush. not only does that tell me that my odds of winning money go up, but its pretty much telling me that i have the edge all around.....either that, or im just the luckiest person in the world 2 years and 10,000 hands later.....
Likely the bolded. Just because you haven't hit 5 Aces yet doesn't mean you couldn't be ahead on him after 10,000 hands. How much are your other friends up on him? Are you ALL up on him by just playing the side bets? Five Aces or higher is barely worth 2/3rds of 1% of the bet's overall return (if you are referring to the Fortune Pai Gow side bet). Although if you are ahead of him $10,000 only betting $5 at a time, that seems really unlikely, and I would pity your friend because he has the long, long, long term upperhand by banking the side bets assuming he is using the appropriate casino paytables. But if he is paying out "envy bonuses" then he doesn't have a huge edge on you or your other friends if you are all betting $5. And with flat payouts for envy bonuses, you're always best to bet the minimum to qualify for it.
the reason we started doing this in the beginning is because we made a bet about this, he bet me $500 that playing more than 1 hand on carnival games does not increase your odds of winning money AT ALL...not even a fraction of a percent. we would bicker about it every single day and ask tons of people for their input. i even went to a casino down where i live by (mgm grand Detroit, not a 'sweating the money type of casino'), and it was a thursday or wednesday night at about 5am, i went to the pai gow table and it was a ghost town, no body in sight. i asked the dealer, the floor person and the pit manager to let me play THREE hands, they all said no, when i asked why they said it was to accommodate other players, i told them that if other players were to sit down and play i would gladly take off my hands and let them play, they still refused. after talking with numerous pit managers and floors about the bet we made, they told me that "obviously we don't want one person to play all the hands because then their chances of winning the $250,000 progressive increases sufficiently and we don't want that". makes sense....doesn't it?
Quote: paigow1986after talking with numerous pit managers and floors about the bet we made, they told me that "obviously we don't want one person to play all the hands because then their chances of winning the $250,000 progressive increases sufficiently and we don't want that". makes sense....doesn't it?
LOL at thinking casino personnel actually understanding progressive mathematics. Playing 3 hands just triples the house's average take on the bet. Sure you're going to hit the progressive about 3X as fast by betting 3 hands, but you're betting triple the money to try to hit it, so of course you'll hit it 3X faster! Narrow-sighted casino personnel only consider the 3X as fast part, not the you betting triple the money part.
one more thing.....if im playing 3 hands at $5 a piece, as opposed to playing one hand at $15, how am I "losing triple the money?"...you might have a phd in chemical engineering...but your reading skills are shit...look at my previous posts and you can see that I ask specifically if there is a difference in playing 6 hands at $5 as opposed to playing one hand at $30, so I will NEVER be losing 6x or 3x as much, EVER. im obviously increasing my odds of making a payable hand betting the same as if were to play 1 hand...
Quote: paigow1986well riddle me this batman, and tell me why it is that a high roller can play AN ENTIRE TABLE OF BLACKJACK....but when it comes to carnival games, the MOST I've ever seen the casino allow people play is 3 hands (3 card poker in which allen Iverson was playing losing HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS). you are probably asking yourself "how can this guy say most casinos?!".....I used to deal out in las vegas (at sahara and planet Hollywood) and currently am a dealer in Detroit. ive also played in casinos in Indianapolis and ohio, so its safe for me to say that 95% or more of casinos will NEVER let patrons play more than one hand at carnival games.
one more thing.....if im playing 3 hands at $5 a piece, as opposed to playing one hand at $15, how am I "losing triple the money?"...you might have a phd in chemical engineering...but your reading skills are shit...look at my previous posts and you can see that I ask specifically if there is a difference in playing 6 hands at $5 as opposed to playing one hand at $30, so I will NEVER be losing 6x or 3x as much, EVER. im obviously increasing my odds of making a payable hand betting the same as if were to play 1 hand...
I'm not sure that your experience quite allows you to safely say that 95% or more of casinos will never...But that's mostly because I think it depends on the game and the bet. I've played 3 PGP hands at once a few times. On that game, you can't (usually) play more hands because it takes too long and is rude to the other players and you have too much extra info to allow you to see a 4th hand. I've also spent a few hundred hours playing only the pair-plus and progressive bets on every spot on a 3 card poker table. There, there's no benefit to added info, so they're happy to let the player play every spot.
Playing an entire table of blackjack results in no additional information being known by the player. There's no reason for the house to disallow it. Playing an entire table of Pai Gow results in a ridiculous amount of information being known by the player as he's looking at the 5th or 6th hand. The player has a huge advantage on those hands, so the house disallows that play.
Quote: paigow1986well riddle me this batman, and tell me why it is that a high roller can play AN ENTIRE TABLE OF BLACKJACK....but when it comes to carnival games, the MOST I've ever seen the casino allow people play is 3 hands (3 card poker in which allen Iverson was playing losing HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS). you are probably asking yourself "how can this guy say most casinos?!".....I used to deal out in las vegas (at sahara and planet Hollywood) and currently am a dealer in Detroit. ive also played in casinos in Indianapolis and ohio, so its safe for me to say that 95% or more of casinos will NEVER let patrons play more than one hand at carnival games.
one more thing.....if im playing 3 hands at $5 a piece, as opposed to playing one hand at $15, how am I "losing triple the money?"...you might have a phd in chemical engineering...but your reading skills are shit...look at my previous posts and you can see that I ask specifically if there is a difference in playing 6 hands at $5 as opposed to playing one hand at $30, so I will NEVER be losing 6x or 3x as much, EVER. im obviously increasing my odds of making a payable hand betting the same as if were to play 1 hand...
Casinos have special rules for high rollers because they are the casino's best customers. Of course Allen Iverson would be allowed to do things you wouldn't.
In games where you are paid based on the cards and not a decision, such as Dragon Bonus or Pair Plus, playing 5 hands at a time or 1 makes no difference EV-wise. In games where you make a decision, such as Pai Gow Poker, there is a small advantage to be gained by knowing what's in the other hands (consequently knowing what the dealer does not have). To get around this, I have seen some casinos allow players to play multiple PGP hands, but the minimum bet is higher than the table minimum and the extra hands must be set the house way. This removes any advantage the player could get by knowing what the dealer does not have.
I don't know for sure, but I would guess some casinos have policies limiting the number of hands a player can play because they are worried about surveillance and cheating, especially when the player is handling the cards, such as in PGP.
I'm pretty certain the main reasons to limit the number of hands is to avoid slowing the game down and keep seats open for other players.
rdw4potus: so lets say you play a single deck or double deck blackjack game. explain to me why the cards are dealt FACE DOWN....isn't it to protect the casino from card counters getting accurate counts? I guess you CAN use information from a blackjack game to help you win....who woulda thought!??!
g71: I understand that if im using information from other hands that it increases my odds of winning...but exclude that from the equation and answer this for me....actually to anyone who has been posting in this thread...answer this ONE question for me (I might even put up a new thread with a poll to prove my point).
if you had the option of playing 1 bonus bet hand at $30 per hand, or, playing 6 bonus bet hands at $5 a per hand, knowing that each individual hand has a possibility of up to EIGHT payouts (straight flush, royal flush, 5 aces, etc.)....how would YOU rather play? what would make more sense?
Quote: paigow1986ibeatyouraces: greektown
rdw4potus: so lets say you play a single deck or double deck blackjack game. explain to me why the cards are dealt FACE DOWN....isn't it to protect the casino from card counters getting accurate counts? I guess you CAN use information from a blackjack game to help you win....who woulda thought!??!
g71: I understand that if im using information from other hands that it increases my odds of winning...but exclude that from the equation and answer this for me....actually to anyone who has been posting in this thread...answer this ONE question for me (I might even put up a new thread with a poll to prove my point).
if you had the option of playing 1 bonus bet hand at $30 per hand, or, playing 6 bonus bet hands at $5 a per hand, knowing that each individual hand has a possibility of up to EIGHT payouts (straight flush, royal flush, 5 aces, etc.)....how would YOU rather play? what would make more sense?
In terms of expected value, it makes no difference if you play 6 spots at $5 per hand, 1 spot at $30, the next 6 hands at $5 per hand, 1 hand at $15 now and 1 hand at $15 next year, etc. All the same.
Quote: paigow1986
rdw4potus: so lets say you play a single deck or double deck blackjack game. explain to me why the cards are dealt FACE DOWN....isn't it to protect the casino from card counters getting accurate counts? I guess you CAN use information from a blackjack game to help you win....who woulda thought!??!
Not all double-deck games are dealt face down. Yes, protection from counters is one consideration. Also, if the cards aren't flipped off the top of the deck, it's less likely that the next card out will be flashed accidentally.
I've played a lot of blackjack in a lot of places. I don't think I've ever seen anyone playing two spots on a pitch game. Does that really happen?
Quote: IbeatyouracesI've seen it many times and done it myself also.
Do you have to bet the same amount on each hand? Do they raise the minimum for playing two hands in a pitch game?
I was just reminded of L'Auberge's PGP minimums: 1 hand - $25; 2 hands - $50; 3 hands - $500.
Quote: paigow1986well riddle me this batman, and tell me why it is that a high roller can play AN ENTIRE TABLE OF BLACKJACK....but when it comes to carnival games, the MOST I've ever seen the casino allow people play is 3 hands (3 card poker in which allen Iverson was playing losing HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS). you are probably asking yourself "how can this guy say most casinos?!".....I used to deal out in las vegas (at sahara and planet Hollywood) and currently am a dealer in Detroit. ive also played in casinos in Indianapolis and ohio, so its safe for me to say that 95% or more of casinos will NEVER let patrons play more than one hand at carnival games.
one more thing.....if im playing 3 hands at $5 a piece, as opposed to playing one hand at $15, how am I "losing triple the money?"...you might have a phd in chemical engineering...but your reading skills are shit...look at my previous posts and you can see that I ask specifically if there is a difference in playing 6 hands at $5 as opposed to playing one hand at $30, so I will NEVER be losing 6x or 3x as much, EVER. im obviously increasing my odds of making a payable hand betting the same as if were to play 1 hand...
So, they would give you a chance at a $250,000 progressive side bet by cutting the required bet by a factor of 3, so you could play 3 hands at once? Now THAT I could understand the casino not letting you do! Maybe that's what you meant? To play 3 hands and qualify for a progressive side bet, you have to make a progressive side bet on EACH one. And speaking of three...see you in three days.
Quote: paigow1986I ask specifically if there is a difference in playing 6 hands at $5 as opposed to playing one hand at $30, so I will NEVER be losing 6x or 3x as much, EVER. im obviously increasing my odds of making a payable hand betting the same as if were to play 1 hand...
Yep, increasing your odds of making a payable hand and also lowering the amount of that payout, even creating the possibility of a net-loss on a hand that includes a winner.
ibeatyouraces: please explain to g71,rdw4potus and tringlomane why you would rather play 6 hands at $5 as opposed to one hand at $30, they still don't seem to get it, if it makes no difference, then why play the way i suggested??
tringlomane: you're finally coming to your senses....so what you're saying NOW is that if there is a progressive, and im playing multiple hands, then my odds of winning money DO increase? well its been a while since i was in vegas, but here's what i can tell you about the 3 casinos here in Detroit.....ALL THEIR CARNIVAL GAMES HAVE PROGRESSIVES. as far as the bet i made with my friend, you're probably thinking "well how can you friend booking your bets possibly pay you that much?!"...answer is...he wont, we all agreed to a $5000 maximum aggregate, so assuming i hit the bombs (whether it be 5 aces on pai gow, royal flush on uth, or 4 of a kind on 4 card) he will only pay me $5000.
just for everyones own information, most the time i play against my buddy, i play pai gow...in the last 2 months ive cracked him $6000. ive hit nothing special...ive hit 7 straight flushes(50 to 1), 3 four a kinds(25 to 1), and about 50-60 full houses (6 to 1), ALL on $5 bets, because here in Detroit, when it comes to pai gow, $5 is the minimum AND maximum you can bet!!
a few nights ago, we were playing uth, the flop came out K K K.....now according to g71, rdw4potus and tringlomane....they would take their chances betting $30 and get only 2 cards(to see if they have that fourth king), rather than betting $30 to get 12 cards(to see if they have that fourth king)....if you're going to say "well you would win more if you had that 4th king for $30!!"..that might be true, but you only have TWO cards, TWO outs, TWO chances......i get TWELVE....but my odds don't increase?!!? i <3 u guys lolz
Quote: paigow1986
tringlomane: you're finally coming to your senses....so what you're saying NOW is that if there is a progressive, and im playing multiple hands, then my odds of winning money DO increase?
You insult me on my reading comprehension, and I never said that at all. Wow. Also my senses have been here the whole time, you just seem to not understand what I am trying to say.
Quote: paigow1986
a few nights ago, we were playing uth, the flop came out K K K.....now according to g71, rdw4potus and tringlomane....they would take their chances betting $30 and get only 2 cards(to see if they have that fourth king), rather than betting $30 to get 12 cards(to see if they have that fourth king)....if you're going to say "well you would win more if you had that 4th king for $30!!"..that might be true, but you only have TWO cards, TWO outs, TWO chances......i get TWELVE....but my odds don't increase?!!? i <3 u guys lolz
Nobody said your odds don't increase. We said your expected total profit doesn't increase. And it doesn't. You have 6 times the odds of winning 1/6th as much. 6*(1/6)=1...
Quote: rdw4potusWe said your expected total profit doesn't increase. And it doesn't. You have 6 times the odds of winning 1/6th as much. 6*(1/6)=1...
Thank you. I hope he can understand what that means.
would you smart mathematicians rather play 6 hands at $5 each, or 1 hand at $30?!........its a very simple question....really......
Quote: paigow1986nobody answered my question!!! Ibeatyouraces did!!!
would you smart mathematicians rather play 6 hands at $5 each, or 1 hand at $30?!........its a very simple question....really......
Would I rather? It depends on your goal.
Do you want to win big/lose big? Bet $30
If you want to win small/lose small? Bet 6 x $5.
Personally I would bet 6 x $5 because I would rather play longer on a limited amount of money, but playing that way in any carny game 3cp, UTH, etc. will lead to the same expected loss (and it IS an expected loss) as playing 6 times fewer hands at $30 each. You're wagering the same total amount, and you are expected to lose the same percentage either way, hence you lose the same amount of money ON AVERAGE. So basically do whatever you feel like.
Quote: paigow1986nobody answered my question!!! Ibeatyouraces did!!!
would you smart mathematicians rather play 6 hands at $5 each, or 1 hand at $30?!........its a very simple question....really......
I re-read your OP, I'm not going to re-read the entire thread, to which I haven't paid much attention, other than scanning for personal insult.
First of all, what game are you referring to? It can make a difference in the House Edge, if you use your knowledge of the other hands to make decisions on how to play each individual hand.
If you played Seven Hands at Caribbean Stud, for example, you'd be at a decent advantage if you could look at all of your hands before making a decision about any of your hands. I don't know if you're even allowed to play multiple hands, though, but it still applies to the theoretical question.
You have EoR with 3CP, so if you could look at all of your hands before making any decision...or even if you had to make them one at a time...basing the decision for later hands on the earlier hands would still affect the overall House Edge.
Pai-Gow Poker, affects how you set your hands.
I imagine you get my point...
Now, let's looking at something like the PP on 3CP, where there is no strategy for it to make a difference in HE. The following applies:
1.) The long-term expectation of six hands at $5 is the same at one hand at $30, because the HE is unaffected.
2.) Variance is reduced by playing six hands, so:
A.) If you're looking just for a good chance of playing longer, you'd want to play multiple hands.
B.) If you're looking for a good chance of winning a large sum of money, you'd play one hand.
Variance is a player's friend in a negative expectation game and it can be a player's enemy in a positive expectation game...this is especially true if a player does not have the bankroll to cover the swings caused by the Variance.
Think of it this way, here is Craps with 0 Variance: Instead of making a Line Bet of $10.00, you would simply hand the House $0.14, and in exchange, you get to roll until the resolution is reached, but no other money changes hands regardless of the resolution.
Here is card-counting Blackjack with no Variance and a few assumptions: Imagine if a player's average advantage is 1% card counting BJ...which is probably a little high on all hands played...If a player's average bet per hand (considering amount he spreads) is $30, then the casino would just pay him $0.30 for every hand he plays.
That's where bankroll comes into play. The House sets the Table Maximums on the highest table such that a Craps player could absolutely pound them in the short-run, but they can handle Variance working positively for one or many players, so they still win in the long run without busting. The card counter attempts to do the same thing, given that the card counter has an advantage, he is almost acting as the, "House," in his own right and must spread his bet according to his bankroll and average advantage so he can weather the storm of negative variance. He can sustain getting pounded in the short run because he will still win in the long run, ideally.
KewlJ's signature sums up the way a stone cold counter thinks perfectly, just search for any post by KewlJ and read his signature, and you'll see what I mean.
Quote: Mission146I re-read your OP, I'm not going to re-read the entire thread, to which I haven't paid much attention, other than scanning for personal insult.
Which I think you missed personally.
Quote: tringlomaneWhich I think you missed personally.
FWIW, I agree.
admin: if what you are saying is true, then rather than play 10 or 20 lines of the mega millions (like I usually do), I will just play 1. because whats the point in playing more? it doesn't increase my odds at all right? if the person playing 1 line hits, he hits for $300 million, if the person playing 10 or 20 lines hits, he hits for $300 million, so what sense does it make to throw more money on the lottery if my odds of winning the PROGRESSIVE JACKPOT are exactly the same? my life has new meaning to it now. rather than drop 100 raffle tickets in a drum, I will just drop 1, because my odds of winning do not increase AT ALL, so whats the point?
ibeatyouraces: being a dealer at greektown can be more agitating than you can ever imagine...
Quote: paigow1986tringlomane: you want to win big then bet big is WRONG especially in the case of how I play uth and the bonus's......let me give you an example of what I mean, I will use uth as an example. if im betting 6 hands at $5 a piece(bonus's only), and quads comes out ON THE BOARD, I get paid 30 to 1 each on my $5 bets, which adds up to $900. Had I been betting 1 hand at $30 and quads rolled out on the board, I would of won $900. so in that instance, you're wrong.
admin: if what you are saying is true, then rather than play 10 or 20 lines of the mega millions (like I usually do), I will just play 1. because whats the point in playing more? it doesn't increase my odds at all right? if the person playing 1 line hits, he hits for $300 million, if the person playing 10 or 20 lines hits, he hits for $300 million, so what sense does it make to throw more money on the lottery if my odds of winning the PROGRESSIVE JACKPOT are exactly the same? my life has new meaning to it now. rather than drop 100 raffle tickets in a drum, I will just drop 1, because my odds of winning do not increase AT ALL, so whats the point?
ibeatyouraces: being a dealer at greektown can be more agitating than you can ever imagine...
But when the board is 2 5 7 J Q, in that instance, you generally save $25 on losing bonus trip bets by betting only one hand of UTH for a $5 bonus bet. You are totally ignoring this possibility. Which kind of board comes out more frequently, do you think? Quads on board, or a board where a set is a best possible hand?
People buy ten tickets for megamillions because it increases your chances of winning the jackpot ten-fold, at the price of ten times the cost of one ticket. On a per ticket basis, your average result per ticket is the same but the person buying 1000 tickets will have a thousand times better chance of hitting the jackpot, but on the other hand, he spent $1000 trying to hit it too, instead of just $1.
I even typically buy $10 when the jackpot is $250M+, even though I know I am usually pissing away almost the entire $10 most of the time.
if the board is Q J 7 5 2, and I bet $5 on six hands of the bonus....I lose $30(assuming I don't have a set or better)
so now that we've got that pretty difficult math out of the way, can you tell me why ANYONE in their right mind would rather have 2 cards as opposed to 12?
the simple fact that you go out and buy more than one lottery ticket, proves my point. if you were to walk into the casino right now, and go to the pai gow table, and you're playing 1 hand at $5, and the dealer looks at you and says "you know sir, if you want, you can play $5 on 2 hands, or 3 hands, or 4 hands, or 5 hands, or 6 hands, however you please", are you gonna look back at the dealer and say "I know my odds!! im not a dummy, my odds of winning with this one hand are exactly the same as if I played all these other ones!!" cuz that would make for a very interesting conversation
as a dealer in Detroit, I see a lot of people that play pairs plus blackjack games....and A LOT of times, they will throw a $5 chip to the person next to em and say "throw this nickel on that pairs plus for me"...... why do they do that? aren't they better off putting that extra nickel on THEIR bet?
I think you guys are just missing my overall point here. im not saying by playing more hands you now have the edge over the casino, or that you will end up making money in the long run. im trying to say by playing more hands you increase your chances of making payable hands, thus, increase your chances of making money.
give my life some meaning here
