roulette betting pattern
But most of the people asking these questions are not looking for science (or truth). They want to know whether *something* in the human mind is able to foresee the result of a random event. Most gamblers (races, baccarat, roulette,...) seem to be playing as if 'catching' in the air some revelation of what is coming up next. And when losing, they don't put it on pure chance, they think 'I guessed wrong'. Of course when winning they say 'I knew it!'.
I make it sound silly, but there is a real and important question here, about the profound nature of reality: deterministic or random, synchronicities and the like. My personal view is that, even if there IS something in the way of correlations, we are not hard-wired into that kind of guessing, so why bother.
But who knows...
People look for, and find, patterns where they don't exist.
The result is, the small investment of the history display earns the casinos a ton of extra roulette action.
Some casinos are starting to add similar displays to craps and baccarat tables.
Quote: LuckyOneTimeAre the odds of betting the same color, let's say black, every spin in Roulette the same as betting a specific pattern? Example: black, black, red, black, black, red, black, black, red. At the end of the day we should end up at the house edge but my question is more about the probability of spins mimicking my wager.
Though the probabilities of each even money bets is equal when played against the house, if you can find a sucker to bet with you on the outcome of three consecutive outcomes, you can make some money off the guy next to you. See Penney's Game
Quote: rdw4potusPersonally, I get frustrated if I don't bet the same way every time at the casino. I get that feeling of "ooooh! I was totally going to bet that!"
Yes.
Rdw4potus, you seem an intelligent man, so I'll take it as a given that you're familiar with the term "variance".
The only chance that anyone has at getting the better of any EC game is by "harnessing their variance".
And how, you might ask, might I do that?
Well, my friends, rdw4potus answered that just above, with his "Personally, I get frustrated if I don't bet the same way every time....."
Consistent bet selection. Thats the start. Betting the very same way at every "trigger" (read: every one of your preferred trend onsets).
Then simply measure the variance of each of your trend plays. Obviously, the "tighter" the variance the better (read: more potentially profitable) the play becomes.
Lastly, build a conservative MM plan around each of those plays. Why conservative? To allow for any "anomalies" to your pre-measured variance (read: longer-than-usual losing jags on the preferred play). After all, as they say, "stuff happens"....especially in gambling. Better to play a conservative MM plan....you might earn a bit less on the profits on a session-to-session basis, but, more importantly, you'll be best prepared to weather those anomaly storms and will actually fare better over the long term.
This is a given. It is not a wish, it is not a hope, and it is not a fallacy. It is a given.
You do not have to win the vast majority of your bets to get the better of Baccarat.
You need only to bet more on your winners than you do on your losers.
And the only way to accomplish that is to, statistically, know the difference.
I have a preferred trend play at Baccarat that performs for me at just over 50%. When that play dips below 45% for me, I raise my bet a bit. When it dips below 40%, I raise the bet a bit more. Same thing with loss streaks on the play. At 5 consecutive losses (or more), I raise my bet a bit.
These are my measured variances on that one trend play. The variance stretches only so far, and then the play rebounds. On the rebound, I'm making more in profits than I lost on its variance "dip".
That's how I win a this game. I utliize statistics that I can count on. Now, I understand that the casinos count on their statistics, their house edges, to get to their profits.
But two can play at that game. It is possible. It takes alot of due diligence, determination, patience, discipline, and money-management.
Quote: gr8playerRdw4potus, you seem an intelligent man, so I'll take it as a given that you're familiar with the term "variance".
The only chance that anyone has at getting the better of any EC game is by "harnessing their variance".
Oh brother, not this "my math vs. your math" stuff again. And it's funny that you're addressing rdw4potus after running away from his challenge.
Quote: gr8playerBetting the very same way at every "trigger" (read: every one of your preferred trend onsets).
t.
Give an example of a 'trigger' in roulette. What does a trigger
sequence look like.
Quote: gr8playerYes.
Rdw4potus, you seem an intelligent man, so I'll take it as a given that you're familiar with the term "variance".
I have a preferred trend play at Baccarat that performs for me at just over 50%. When that play dips below 45% for me, I raise my bet a bit. When it dips below 40%, I raise the bet a bit more. Same thing with loss streaks on the play. At 5 consecutive losses (or more), I raise my bet a bit.
I'm certainly familiar with the term "variance." I even know it's definition. And you're utterly bastardizing it.
Quote: rdw4potusI'm certainly familiar with the term "variance." I even know it's definition. And you're utterly bastardizing it.
No sense in getting into semantics, my friend. You know darn well what I mean. As I said just above, you seem an intelligent man to me.
Quote: EvenBobGive an example of a 'trigger' in roulette. What does a trigger
sequence look like.
Sure, EvenBob, no prob.
(Well, I can do so in Bac; I'm not a roulette player.)
Sidenote: My advice to you guys....write this down. It's a winning play:
BB PPP BBB P B....bet B here. (Sidenote #2: If B and P were reversed in this example, the play would then be P. My trends do not discriminate between B or P, I bet for either one willingly.)
53% winner for me.
Even more importantly, it carries a very tight variance. Very playable, very profitable, when played "correctly".
Quote: gr8player
BB PPP BBB P B....bet B here...53% winner for me.
.
So you think every time that sequence comes up,
banker will be the next outcome. You do realize
thats impossible, right? It will eventually go to,
every time you see it, banker will always lose. It
has to, its the nature of random outcomes.
Quote: gr8playerSure, EvenBob, no prob.
(Well, I can do so in Bac; I'm not a roulette player.)
Sidenote: My advice to you guys....write this down. It's a winning play:
BB PPP BBB P B....bet B here. (Sidenote #2: If B and P were reversed in this example, the play would then be P. My trends do not discriminate between B or P, I bet for either one willingly.)
53% winner for me.
Even more importantly, it carries a very tight variance. Very playable, very profitable, when played "correctly".
that specific 10 result sequence happens 1 in 1024 times. How big is your sample size that is showing a 53% win rate? You certainly have no higher chance of success on that hand than you do at any other time...
Quote: EvenBobSo you think every time that sequence comes up,
banker will be the next outcome. You do realize
thats impossible, right? It will eventually go to,
every time you see it, banker will always lose. It
has to, its the nature of random outcomes.
I never said, nor ever would say, that banker will come up "every time". I said 53%. That's a heck-of-a-ways away from "every time".
Quote: rdw4potusYou certainly have no higher chance of success on that hand than you do at any other time...
Correct. I don't.
BUUUUTTTT:
It doesn't matter.
Can't you guys see it??????
Even if the bet loses, I'm going to win. On the next one. Or the next. Or the next......
It doesn't matter. Why?????
Because I bet the variance. I know the variance stats and I bet accordingly.
C'mon...you guys are smart enough to figure out exactly what I'm speaking of.
I alter my bet sizes based upon the current variance stats on each of my preferred trend plays.
Mix in some strategic starting/stopping points for each shoe and/or session, and you're home free.
What is it about that that seems to mystify all of you?????
Quote: Beethoven9thYeah, this guy is soooooooo sure of his "system" that he continually ignores the challenge. *headshake*
I know, right?? It's not even that much of a challenge. I'm not doing anything more than every casino in the world...
Quote: gr8playerWhat is it about that that seems to mystify all of you?????
Wow.
Now you've got me quoting myself, which is exactly what I'd rather do than respond to the silliness of your so-called challenge.
But I used that quote for a reason:
It's the house edge.
The house edge has you mystified and, frankly, IMHO, stupefied. The casino has you beaten even before you've set foot inside of it.
What's wrong with the house edge? Someone's gotta pay the lights/rent/salaries. Give 'em the lousy 1%.
Can't you work around it? Can't you factor it in to your own play? Then it's but a short step towards neutralizing it......
Quote: gr8playerWow.
Now you've got me quoting myself, which is exactly what I'd rather do than respond to the silliness of your so-called challenge.
But I used that quote for a reason:
It's the house edge.
The house edge has you mystified and, frankly, IMHO, stupefied. The casino has you beaten even before you've set foot inside of it.
What's wrong with the house edge? Someone's gotta pay the lights/rent/salaries. Give 'em the lousy 1%.
Can't you work around it? Can't you factor it in to your own play? Then it's but a short step towards neutralizing it......
Oh, it's a real challenge. Don't kid yourself. We both know you'll lose, which is why you won't respond to the challenge's "silliness."
And, no, you can't work around the house edge. It's a constant, and it's applied to every bet you make. How are you going to work around something that is uniformly applied? What series of negative expectation bets would you like to make to produce an expected win for yourself?
With respect to roulette and baccarat.....duh! Of course the house has everyone beaten, including you.Quote: gr8playerThe casino has you beaten even before you've set foot inside of it.
Um...no.Quote: gr8playerGive 'em the lousy 1%.
Can't you work around it?
Still ignoring the challenge, I see? (Heck, as rdw4potus pointed out, it's not even much of a challenge)
Quote: gr8player
Because I bet the variance. I know the variance stats and I bet accordingly.
You realize that nobody here knows what 'bet the
variance' means, and because you can't explain it,
neither do you. Its like variance means something
different to you than it does it us.
Quote: rdw4potusWhat series of negative expectation bets would you like to make to produce an expected win for yourself?
Yes, rwd4potus. There it is. You've hit the nail on the head, my friend.
"Series of bets".....ooops. sorry, I left out the "negative expectation" part......ooops, sorry......NOT!......purposely omitted.
I am fully aware that I am being paid at less than true odds on each and every bet. I understand "negative expectation". Do you? Do you know what "expectation" means?
Me? I "expect" to win. In my very own "series of bets", I expect to come out ahead. Why shouldn't I? I play a darn good, controlled Bac game. Who says I can't better their 1%? Who says I can't do better than "expected"?
It's a bit ironic, rdw4potus...your "tag line".....your own tag line....ever read it?
".....opportunity met preparation, and luck happened."
I wish it for all of you.
Quote: gr8playerI play a darn good, controlled Bac game.
How do you play "darn good" at a game that's 100% chance? Unlike card counting in BJ, there's no freakin skill involved, man.
Quote: EvenBobYou realize that nobody here knows what 'bet the
variance' means, and because you can't explain it,
neither do you. Its like variance means something
different to you than it does it us.
"Betting the variance", as I both see and utilize it:
I developed, for myself, certain trend plays with higher-than-avg strike rates. Strike that....replace "higher-than-avg" with, shall I say, "manageable".
I then measured their avg strike rates, avg win and loss streaks, and, most importantly, how far below/above the median line (read: 50/50) they can fall/rise.
I play for those same "preferred trends" every time.
I track my wins/losses on each, always updating the most current statistics.
I adjust my bet size according to those current statistics, as compared to my variance stats on each.
In this manner, I will win more on my variance upswings than I will lose on their downswings.
Rinse and repeat, for 4 different "preferred" trend plays that I utilize.
I hope that helps you, EvenBob.
Quote: Beethoven9thHow do you play "darn good" at a game that's 100% chance? .
He 'bets the variance', whatever that means. He
seems unwilling to explain, so its a mystery.
Quote: Beethoven9thHow do you play "darn good" at a game that's 100% chance? Unlike card counting in BJ, there's no freakin skill involved, man.
Read my last post, Beethoven9th, for it contains the HG.
Quote: EvenBobHe 'bets the variance', whatever that means. He
seems unwilling to explain, so its a mystery.
Read, EB, read......its right in front of you.
Quote: gr8playerRead, EB, read......its right in front of you.
Whenever somebody says that, its not 'right in front'
at all. Its not anywhere. Lets pretend I can't read and
you briefly explain what betting the variance means.
Thats an old Gizmo trick, BTW. Never explaining anything
because he already explained it earlier, when he really
didn't.
Quote: gr8player"Betting the variance", as I both see and utilize it:
I developed, for myself, certain trend plays with higher-than-avg strike rates. Strike that....replace "higher-than-avg" with, shall I say, "manageable".
I then measured their avg strike rates, avg win and loss streaks, and, most importantly, how far below/above the median line (read: 50/50) they can fall/rise.
I play for those same "preferred trends" every time.
I track my wins/losses on each, always updating the most current statistics.
I adjust my bet size according to those current statistics, as compared to my variance stats on each.
In this manner, I will win more on my variance upswings than I will lose on their downswings.
Rinse and repeat, for 4 different "preferred" trend plays that I utilize.
I hope that helps you, EvenBob.
What is it about this post that has you confused, EvenBob? Or might you prefer me to take you by the hand at my next AC trip and tutor you personally?
EDITED TO ADD: (Sidenote: Lest anyone get any silly ideas, ain't never gonna happen, my friend.)
Quote: gr8player
It's a bit ironic, rdw4potus...your "tag line".....your own tag line....ever read it?
".....opportunity met preparation, and luck happened."
I wish it for all of you.
I'm sure you have opportunity, it's obvious that you've prepared, and I hope you have luck. But, specifically, I think you're receiving luck and assuming it's due to your preparation. There's no way to lessen the house edge in a bacc game. It's random...
Quote: rdw4potusthat specific 10 result sequence happens 1 in 1024 times. How big is your sample size that is showing a 53% win rate? You certainly have no higher chance of success on that hand than you do at any other time...
waiting for BB PPP BBB P B would be tedious and hard on the liver.....that's a 20 beer setup if I've ever seen one...
Quote: gr8playerWhat is it about this post that has you confused, EvenBob? Or might you prefer me to take you by the hand at my next AC trip and tutor you personally?
)
"I then measured their avg strike rates, avg win and loss streaks, and, most importantly, how far below/above the median line (read: 50/50) they can fall/rise."
Because this has to be exactly the same in the long
run, all you're doing is curve fitting the results to
match your expectations. Big deal, all system players
who fool themselves do this.
Imagine 1500 posts of this nonsense on another gambling
forum. There was a great bac player named Johno who
wanted to murder gr8 because he could never get a straight
answer out of him. It was quite comical. gr8 will never do
a challenge because he knows there's a good possibility he'll
lose. He'd rather just brag about how great he is.
Here's an entertaining thread with Johno and gr8 from 2009:
http://www.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=994&forum=Baccarat_Message_Board
Quote: EvenBob"I then measured their avg strike rates, avg win and loss streaks, and, most importantly, how far below/above the median line (read: 50/50) they can fall/rise."
Because this has to be exactly the same in the long
run, all you're doing is curve fitting the results to
match your expectations.
That's not true.
I keep and track certain stats and plan my play accordingly, but I claim no "exactness".
That's why I play a relatively conservative game, to allow for those times where my own stats might get, for lack of a better term, "stretched" a bit.
I don't need exactness, I just need reasonable expecatation.....conformity, if you will. (Sidenote: My ex-playing partner used to call it "normalcy".)
Quote: EvenBobHere's an entertaining thread with Johno and gr8 from 2009:
http://www.gamblersglen.com/cgi-bin/teemz/teemz.cgi?board=_master&action=opentopic&topic=994&forum=Baccarat_Message_Board
A thoroughly entertaining read. LOL! ;)
Quote: Mission146I believe the official Gambler's Glen slogan is, "Here's an amusing thread."
Mission146, and other esteemed forum members, please do not allow yourselves to get caught up in EvenBob's web here.
He is, quite obviously, a "Johno groupie", hence the "great bac player Johno" statement.
So please take the prodding from Evenbob, and his carefully selected GG quotes, for exactly what they're worth.
Nothing. Nada.
Frankly, to me, anyhow, it speaks more to EvenBob's character and membership status than all his 6000 posts ever could.
Shame on you, EvenBob. You disgrace both yourself and this forum with your misguidance and prejudice.
Quote: gr8playerThat's not true.
)
Thats what all curve fitters say. It has to be what
you're doing because what you think you're
doing is mathematically impossible.
Quote: gr8playerMission146, and other esteemed forum members, please do not allow yourselves to get caught up in EvenBob's web here.
He is, quite obviously, a "Johno groupie", hence the "great bac player Johno" statement.
Shame on you, EvenBob. You disgrace both yourself and this forum with your misguidance abnd prejudice.
Yeah, that was sarcasm. Very obvious sarcasm. There's no such thing as a great bac player - there's no way to change the odds of the game...
Quote: gr8player
So please take the prodding from Evenbob, and his carefully selected GG quotes, for exactly what they're worth.
.
Nope. I entered your name in the search and
picked the first one by Johno. Thats it. They
are all like that, go and look. All your threads
are you arguing that you're right and everybody
else is wrong.
Quote: treetopbuddytoo much "unit size" talk in that thread......made me uncomfortable.
You don't know how big my unit is! Stop assuming I have a small unit! LOL
Quote: EvenBobNope. I entered your name in the search and
picked the first one by Johno. Thats it.
Really, EvenBob? REALLY!!!!!!!
Some 5000 Johno posts (not to mention his other aliases on the very same forum), and you just happened to pick that "first one by Johno".??????
Really, now EvenBob.....
......the truth shall set you free......
Quote: gr8playerReally, EvenBob? REALLY!!!!!!!
Some 5000 Johno posts (not to mention his other aliases on the very same forum), and you just happened to pick that "first one by Johno".??????
He said that he picked the first thread by Johno after searching for you.
In fact, I'm going to do that myself. The first thread was so entertaining, who knows what other comedic goodies lie ahead. ;)
Quote: gr8playerReally, EvenBob? REALLY!!!!!!!
...
Yup, I picked the first one I read, believe it. Pick any
of them, they're all the same.
Quote: Beethoven9thHe said that he picked the first thread by Johno after searching for you.
In fact, I'm going to do that myself. The first thread was so entertaining, who knows what other comedic goodies lie ahead. ;)
So now you're defending his nonsense, and maybe even amplifying it.
No wonder you don't do too well at Baccarat, Beethoven9th. You seem to be rather adept at picking the wrong side......
I'm not defending anyone. I was simply pointing out that you misread that particular sentence.Quote: gr8playerSo now you're defending his nonsense, and maybe even amplifying it.
But guess what? Neither do you... ;)Quote: gr8playerNo wonder you don't do too well at Baccarat, Beethoven9th.
