What's necessary to get $3000 in comps / mo?
June 27th, 2012 at 9:15:30 AM
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When you throw in airfare, room, meals and free upfront money, that's how much my brother gets AT LEAST once a month. I've already read about the formulas casinos use to compute comps, but knowing that he plays BJ and craps and nothing else (play duration, house edge, etc.), I'm trying to estimate much he's wagering over a span of 3-4 days (his average stay at Ceasars). And does it make sense that the casino continually comps him this way if he wins an average of $3000 (his claim)? I'm afraid he's burning through his share of the money our parents left us. He says not to worry since he consistently comes out ahead. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
June 27th, 2012 at 9:25:28 AM
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I have a friend that gets great comps.
I've played blackjack with him a few times. He is a horrible player- uses a progression system, thinks he knows basic strategy (but doesn't), regularly loses thousands $$.
There probably are a few really smart people that have an act so good that they can win a lot of money AND get great comps. Chances are your brother isn't one of them.
I've played blackjack with him a few times. He is a horrible player- uses a progression system, thinks he knows basic strategy (but doesn't), regularly loses thousands $$.
There probably are a few really smart people that have an act so good that they can win a lot of money AND get great comps. Chances are your brother isn't one of them.
June 27th, 2012 at 9:52:03 AM
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While casinos will comp winning players so they'll return and give it all abck, surely they will give up at some point. More important, no one wins consistently at negative EV games unless they're advantage players. And I don't think that applies at craps.
There are any number of ways you could know for sure, but they all risk unpleasantness with your brother. So here's what I would recommend: ask him to invite you on one of his trips. That shouldn't be too hard for him to arrange, and you can see just what goes on.
There are any number of ways you could know for sure, but they all risk unpleasantness with your brother. So here's what I would recommend: ask him to invite you on one of his trips. That shouldn't be too hard for him to arrange, and you can see just what goes on.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
June 27th, 2012 at 9:59:57 AM
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Quote: subiefreakdoes it make sense that the casino continually comps him this way if he wins an average of $3000 (his claim)?
It's his theoretical losses that matter, not his actual losses. If they are the very generous type, he is figured to lose something like $10,000/month. A less generous outfit will let him lose a lot more than that before he gets $3000 back.
Quote:He says not to worry since he consistently comes out ahead. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
This is not impossible, but he would have to be very lucky playing craps [and not the typical gambler as far as shrewdness]; in BJ he would have to count cards. Be advised that Casinos take a dim view of card counters, usually that has a short life.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!” She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
June 27th, 2012 at 10:39:48 AM
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Quote: NareedThere are any number of ways you could know for sure, but they all risk unpleasantness with your brother. So here's what I would recommend: ask him to invite you on one of his trips. That shouldn't be too hard for him to arrange, and you can see just what goes on.
I'm thinking about doing this. I figure if he declines my suspicions are possibly verified, if not, at least I'll get a glimpse of him at "work" (his term). My other brother suggests to stay out of it so I'm rather torn over the matter. Thank you!
June 27th, 2012 at 10:53:11 AM
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Quote: odiousgambitIt's his theoretical losses that matter, not his actual losses. If they are the very generous type, he is figured to lose something like $10,000/month. A less generous outfit will let him lose a lot more than that before he gets $3000 back.
This is not impossible, but he would have to be very lucky playing craps [and not the typical gambler as far as shrewdness]; in BJ he would have to count cards. Be advised that Casinos take a dim view of card counters, usually that has a short life.
I was afraid of a loss amount of $10k or more even if it is theoretical. Given the frequency at which he goes to LV, I can't help but assume his actual losses will approach the theoretical. It just seems absurd that any business would maintain a relationship with a client they consistently lose money on for over 2 years. And with all due respect to my brother, he is not sharp enough to out-game the house edge.
June 27th, 2012 at 10:56:20 AM
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Quote: WupperThere probably are a few really smart people that have an act so good that they can win a lot of money AND get great comps. Chances are your brother isn't one of them.
I agree.
June 27th, 2012 at 11:13:45 AM
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Of course then you might jinx him and that will be the reason he lost.
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June 27th, 2012 at 11:28:13 AM
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Quote: subiefreakIt just seems absurd that any business would maintain a relationship with a client they consistently lose money on for over 2 years. And with all due respect to my brother, he is not sharp enough to out-game the house edge.
If he's been going for a 3-4 day trip every month for more than 2 years, it's highly unlikely he's ahead overall. However, it's not impossible to see a lot of positive variance over that time if he's a good BS player at blackjack and plays the low house edge bets at craps. Either way he will lose in the long run if he keeps it up, so I would stage some kind of intervention or make an attempt at getting proof. When he's broke, is he going to come to you for help? If not, or if you're not particularly close to him, then of course you must follow your own heart on how much to try to reach him.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
June 27th, 2012 at 12:32:52 PM
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BTW you mentioned that he is getting an airfare comp? This is among the toughest comps to get for those of us in the real world (forget the biggest players, for them its not airfare but a private jet). Your brother is really going for it.
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June 27th, 2012 at 12:49:52 PM
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We have a friend who was getting comps like you described. Free airfare, hotel, dinner to Lake Tahoe from Baltimore for her and her husband. My wife would play slots next to her and insist she was playing normal money. I told her that is not possible to get the comps she gets. Well one night drinking with her husband it turns out he cut her off as she lost almost 90K in a year and a half. Now thankfully they could actually afford it. House paid off, cars paid off good income etc... but unless you are a super whale you do not get comps like that.
June 27th, 2012 at 1:09:46 PM
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I think AlanMendelson is pretty open about how Ceasars treats him comp-wise and how much he tends to play, and Alan is one of the bigger players. He would probably know as much as anybody on the forum and he is a nice guy. Or try his forum at AlanBestBuys.com.
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June 27th, 2012 at 5:35:01 PM
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No casino would ever give more than 50% of theoretical, even if the player is atrocious in their play strategy. That being said, looking at $6,000 theoretical loss MINIMUM per month. Just being blunt, don't take it the wrong way.
June 27th, 2012 at 6:29:53 PM
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Absolutely not is he ahead. He is losing, and losing big. If he tells it any other way, he is lying. You should confront him about it and make sure you get him on the level. There is a lot of deception among gamblers.Quote: subiefreakAnd does it make sense that the casino continually comps him this way if he wins an average of $3000 (his claim)? I'm afraid he's burning through his share of the money our parents left us. He says not to worry since he consistently comes out ahead. Any thoughts would be greatly appreciated.
Sorry to be curt with you but there is no two ways about it. You do not win gambling at any length.
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
June 27th, 2012 at 8:14:51 PM
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I GREATLY appreciate the straight talk. The feedback received thus far have been invaluable. Thanks to all!
September 19th, 2012 at 9:44:36 AM
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What do you mean by "an act"?
September 19th, 2012 at 9:46:31 AM
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Quote: WupperI have a friend that gets great comps.
I've played blackjack with him a few times. He is a horrible player- uses a progression system, thinks he knows basic strategy (but doesn't), regularly loses thousands $$.
There probably are a few really smart people that have an act so good that they can win a lot of money AND get great comps. Chances are your brother isn't one of them.
What do you mean by a good act?
September 19th, 2012 at 9:50:16 AM
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Quote: WupperI have a friend that gets great comps.
I've played blackjack with him a few times. He is a horrible player- uses a progression system, thinks he knows basic strategy (but doesn't), regularly loses thousands $$.
There probably are a few really smart people that have an act so good that they can win a lot of money AND get great comps. Chances are your brother isn't one of them.
What do you mean by a good act?
September 19th, 2012 at 10:20:47 AM
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He is talking about people like card counters who manage to look like they are losing and get good comps.
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September 19th, 2012 at 10:27:53 AM
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deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
September 19th, 2012 at 10:38:54 AM
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20-40 Stud? (Chosen because of the tables marked "H," it seems to be the one that'll get you into the least trouble.) Oh, wait, that's not what you're asking.
My guess would be that your brother's a lucky idiot, or lying about his winnings. Figure, $3k probably means a theoretical loss of at least $10k. My guess would be that comes mostly from craps - does he play the middle of the table a lot? If so, his play-through might be as little as... $150k/mo... (and it would support the "lucky idiot" hypothesis, as "easy" as it is to get lucky on those bets).
My guess would be that your brother's a lucky idiot, or lying about his winnings. Figure, $3k probably means a theoretical loss of at least $10k. My guess would be that comes mostly from craps - does he play the middle of the table a lot? If so, his play-through might be as little as... $150k/mo... (and it would support the "lucky idiot" hypothesis, as "easy" as it is to get lucky on those bets).
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
September 19th, 2012 at 1:04:16 PM
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I am late to the posting, but if the OP gets an email, this info may be of use.....................
The flight comp really depends on where he is coming from.
Around my area, there are at least 6 casino junket operators here. The casinos and the tour operators work together to get us to the casino. I would love to know how it works, but alas, I am not privy to the inner workings.
All I know is, I get a free room, and 2 seats on the flight. I do not get guaranteed Food comp, but I have never failed to earn enough comps while there to pay my food bills. I have gone as little as 2x a year, and as much as 4x in a year.
I play a lot of hours (avg >8 hours for each day on a trip), almost all of it craps, but my whole trip bankroll is $2-$3K.
I did inquire at Paris one time about what it would take to get a comp for airfare, and the person told me to come back when I had lost $10,000 on this trip, and we could talk! I never take $10K with me in a year, let alone one trip. Yet I am getting free flights through the junket......... So I think it could really depend on whether or not his gambling is junket related.
The flight comp really depends on where he is coming from.
Around my area, there are at least 6 casino junket operators here. The casinos and the tour operators work together to get us to the casino. I would love to know how it works, but alas, I am not privy to the inner workings.
All I know is, I get a free room, and 2 seats on the flight. I do not get guaranteed Food comp, but I have never failed to earn enough comps while there to pay my food bills. I have gone as little as 2x a year, and as much as 4x in a year.
I play a lot of hours (avg >8 hours for each day on a trip), almost all of it craps, but my whole trip bankroll is $2-$3K.
I did inquire at Paris one time about what it would take to get a comp for airfare, and the person told me to come back when I had lost $10,000 on this trip, and we could talk! I never take $10K with me in a year, let alone one trip. Yet I am getting free flights through the junket......... So I think it could really depend on whether or not his gambling is junket related.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back !
Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
September 19th, 2012 at 1:47:26 PM
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You know, it suddenly occurs to me, risking gobs of money, currently ahead, claiming he's consistently ahead, thinks he can stay consistently ahead at craps...
Seems to me that all adds up to "Martingale bettor," i.e., essentially betting his entire bankroll with very good odds and a commensurately small return. So he'll stay ahead for a while, most likely, until some random trip goes badly and he comes back without one red cent of your inheritance left.
Seems to me that all adds up to "Martingale bettor," i.e., essentially betting his entire bankroll with very good odds and a commensurately small return. So he'll stay ahead for a while, most likely, until some random trip goes badly and he comes back without one red cent of your inheritance left.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
