Technology the next generation won''t have
May 14th, 2012 at 8:40:12 PM
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I saw this list of things the next generation won't have
- Wired Home Internet
- The Mouse
- Desktops
- Optical Discs
- Windowed Operating Systems
- Hard Drives
- Slow-Booting Computers
- Landline Phones
- Remote Controls
- Dedicated Cameras and Camcorders
- 3D Glasses
- Phone Numbers
- Fax Machines
- Movie Theaters
-
Prime-time Television
Personally, I wonder if physical travel will become something for the very wealthy, with virtual relationships becoming the dominant mode of business and socialization.
May 14th, 2012 at 8:48:19 PM
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Did they say what we'll have as replacements?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
May 14th, 2012 at 9:01:46 PM
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I don't even own a cellphone, hope the landlines don't go away too soon. And what about remote controls, I certainly don't want voice command for television control. Will be kinda noisy with me yelling at the tv in one room and the wife yelling at hers in the other. I also prefer my desktop to laptops. And like using a mouse. The rest of the stuff I won't miss.
May 14th, 2012 at 9:12:54 PM
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You can add paper maps, LP records (and CDs for that matter), wristwatches and beepers to the list.
"Poker sure is an easy game to beat if you have the roll to keep rebuying."
May 14th, 2012 at 9:42:12 PM
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Quote: pacomartinI saw this list of things the next generation won't have
- The Mouse
Fail this is, my young padawan...
(OK, I get it that it isn't your list)
Let me give you the real scoop as to what the next generation won't have.
1. Useful means of personal defense: Firearms or other
2. Constitutional rights: Not all of them, at least
3. Horse-driven ploughs: Wait, why wasn't it already on the list?
Also, I believe the author of the list is disconnected from the reality.
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May 14th, 2012 at 10:16:48 PM
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"9. Remote Controls" >>> Say what?
Ken
Ken
May 14th, 2012 at 10:25:26 PM
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Quote: mrjjj"9. Remote Controls" >>> Say what?
Don't you get it? They'll use their failPhone to conveniently press "Button" ->"Slide to unlock" ->"Home" ->"Apps" ->"Remote" ->"TV 1" ->"Volume" ->"Slide to decrease" instead of inconveniently pressing "Volume up/down" on that uncoolly unfabulous remote.
And the SAT reading test sufficient for getting into Harvard will consist of correctly answering "What does SAT stand for?"
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May 14th, 2012 at 11:38:06 PM
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I'm pretty sure manual transmission, and the credit card are going away. Also, I think taxi drivers (not cabs) will be a thing of the past, with the advent of driverless cars.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
May 15th, 2012 at 12:03:54 AM
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I wanted to say that I'll sooner die than voluntarily put my hands on the wheel of a vehicle with automatic transmission, but I'd rather not jinx myself. As a statement of fact though that's probably true.
I'd rather walk than drive an automatic.
I'd rather ride a bicycle than drive an automatic.
I'd rather ride a ghetto bus than drive an automatic.
I'd rather slash my nads off with a wakiza... no, wait, this is where I draw the line and would rather drive an automatic.
I'd rather walk than drive an automatic.
I'd rather ride a bicycle than drive an automatic.
I'd rather ride a ghetto bus than drive an automatic.
I'd rather slash my nads off with a wakiza... no, wait, this is where I draw the line and would rather drive an automatic.
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May 15th, 2012 at 3:33:19 AM
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I read the original article. Yes, he does offer alternatives. I don't agree with all of it, but thought it was an interesting read.
I don't see this coming for several generations at least. Travel is extremely cheap, so much so that even the poorest of people (in the U.S. at least) can travel hundreds or thousands of miles whenever they really want.
I think something else is happening, and it's happening to me. Thanks to the Internet, information about other places and cultures has become easily accessible - so much so that you don't have to go somewhere to learn what's going on. So I do less of it.
1. I disagree. I think personal defense devices will become more and more effective as the years pass. They may not be LEGAL, but they will be available.
2. Curious... how do you think they're going to go away? Are we going to pass Constitutional amendments saying "never mind; that's not important anymore"? Will the government take them by force and hope no one notices? Or will we, the people, just kind of forget about them?
Quote: pacomartinPersonally, I wonder if physical travel will become something for the very wealthy, with virtual relationships becoming the dominant mode of business and socialization.
I don't see this coming for several generations at least. Travel is extremely cheap, so much so that even the poorest of people (in the U.S. at least) can travel hundreds or thousands of miles whenever they really want.
I think something else is happening, and it's happening to me. Thanks to the Internet, information about other places and cultures has become easily accessible - so much so that you don't have to go somewhere to learn what's going on. So I do less of it.
Quote: P90
Let me give you the real scoop as to what the next generation won't have.
1. Useful means of personal defense: Firearms or other
2. Constitutional rights: Not all of them, at least
1. I disagree. I think personal defense devices will become more and more effective as the years pass. They may not be LEGAL, but they will be available.
2. Curious... how do you think they're going to go away? Are we going to pass Constitutional amendments saying "never mind; that's not important anymore"? Will the government take them by force and hope no one notices? Or will we, the people, just kind of forget about them?
May 15th, 2012 at 6:59:44 AM
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Quote: fremont4ever1. I disagree. I think personal defense devices will become more and more effective as the years pass. They may not be LEGAL, but they will be available.
Ah, that way yes. But once they stop being legal, they shift from being means of defense and towards being means of crime.
Quote: fremont4ever2. Curious... how do you think they're going to go away? Are we going to pass Constitutional amendments saying "never mind; that's not important anymore"? Will the government take them by force and hope no one notices? Or will we, the people, just kind of forget about them?
Act by act, with scare- and publicity-driven legislation that gets counter-constitutional pieces tucked in to avoid scrutiny.
"EDUCATE ACT ban online poker THINK OF THE CHILDREN establish free speech zones FOR A BETTER TOMORROW increase copyright term to 1000 years retroactively".
More than half will probably be creatively irrelevant backronyms like "PATRIOT".
I would put the over/under line for when the supreme court first openly utters words to the effect that constitution's relevance is reduced by its age at about 2030, but acting on that idea is already not uncommon.
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May 15th, 2012 at 7:18:27 AM
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Quote: fremont4everI read the original article. Yes, he does offer alternatives. I don't agree with all of it, but thought it was an interesting read.
Yeah, it's pretty naïve. It reads like those year 1900 predictions of what life will be like in year 2000, with steam-powered hair cutters and what not.
Touchscreens instead of mice? We have computers with large touchscreens already, try actually working with nothing but that screen for an hour and you'll see why a mouse is still supplied with them. No desktops? Well, I guess touch typists will have obviously realized the advantages of using a virtual keyboard projected on a vertical screen by then, because tablets are sooo keeewl.
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May 15th, 2012 at 8:14:37 AM
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Quote: P90Don't you get it? They'll use their failPhone to conveniently press "Button" ->"Slide to unlock" ->"Home" ->"Apps" ->"Remote" ->"TV 1" ->"Volume" ->"Slide to decrease" instead of inconveniently pressing "Volume up/down" on that uncoolly unfabulous remote.
And the SAT reading test sufficient for getting into Harvard will consist of correctly answering "What does SAT stand for?"
The article says phones, hand signals, and voice commands. I have my doubts as I think the remote with buttons will be replaced with a wand with a few buttons that controls a menu on the screen.
There may only be a single vertical TV in most homes of the future, as private television viewing heads towards remote.
I also think all the cloud computing and data storage will hit a wall the first time there is a nationwide data catastrophe.
May 15th, 2012 at 8:44:54 AM
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Quote: pacomartinThe article says phones, hand signals, and voice commands. I have my doubts as I think the remote with buttons will be replaced with a wand with a few buttons that controls a menu on the screen.
That, a regression of remotes from huge button panels down to simpler devices, kind of already happened in high-end TVs. Look at top of the line Philips and Samsung remotes; the latter has two, a proper remote and a mini one.
Waving a wand around just isn't as convenient as pressing buttons or a 4-directional inverted hat around.
Also, prediction: The last non-recreational manned aircraft will have HOTAS, not a wave-your-arms-around-like-it's-Top-Gear-Apocalypse-all-over-again interface.
Quote: pacomartinThere may only be a single vertical TV in most homes of the future, as private television viewing heads towards remote.
On the contrary, there will be more TVs. Even if desktop PC were to become extinct (the article is decidedly wrong on that count - it didn't happen in 1996, it didn't happen in 2009, it won't happen in 2020), there will still be consoles and games. And people will still want to enjoy their movies, TV and games on a proper screen, not a phone.
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May 15th, 2012 at 8:55:42 AM
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Quote: pacomartin
- Wired Home Internet
- The Mouse
- Desktops
- Optical Discs
- Windowed Operating Systems
- Hard Drives
- Slow-Booting Computers
- Landline Phones
- Remote Controls
- Dedicated Cameras and Camcorders
- 3D Glasses
- Phone Numbers
- Fax Machines
- Movie Theaters
- Prime-time Television
Some yes, some no. Wired internet already mostly gone, though when you need real speed or security you still use it. Desktops might die, but what is already happening is "combo" or something like that they call them. Keyboard is on your lap but screens are large. I've worked on laptops all day at work, and desktops are better for real work. So the "detached" model might be what we use at home. Mice are not going anywhere, QWERTY hasn't died because it is adopetd and still works. Mice will be the same. Remotes are not going to die, either. They work, people do not want to talk to their TV sets. 3D Glasses always stunk, I wish they were gone now. Fax machined are already near dead. Movie theaters I can see dying off, just a few per city. They priced themselves away. Phone numbers will stay. Prime-Time TV died about 5 years ago, just that nobody bothered to tell the networks.
That was a relaxing rant, now I can get back to trying to buy this house..........
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
May 15th, 2012 at 8:56:09 AM
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- Wired Home Internet
- Possibly, but there's many advantages to wired, and I think you'll still have ethernet/hardwired places, with some buildings doing it as standard. -
The Mouse
- Unlikely, touch screen is a very different dynamic. -
Desktops
- Probably. Personally, I think my work laptop is mostly useless... I hardly ever use it mobile, but I'm a rarity. -
Optical Discs
- Dyimg already. -
Windowed Operating Systems
- This was never written by a developer. Windowed operating systems make life so easy for development. -
Hard Drives
- Magnet based hard drives... maybe, solid state flash drives, definitely not. Besides, big data stores will still need ways of storing huge amounts of data, and hard drives are a way forward. Many people assume everything will go to the cloud. I don't think it will exclusively. Local storage has many advantages. -
Slow-Booting Computers
- Define slow :) -
Landline Phones
- Possibly. I've not used a landline since 1998. -
Remote Controls
- Voice activation has it's problems. Remotes are (relatively) easy to pick up and use. Gestures need interpretation. A button push does not. -
Dedicated Cameras and Camcorders
- Professionally, these will exist in 25 years. -
3D Glasses
- Who cares, I don't have them now :) -
Phone Numbers
- On the front end, for sure. On the back end, they'll still be numbers. -
Fax Machines
- Yeah, they are dying already. -
Movie Theaters
- Hmmm, not sure on that one yet. But I can see Movies being straight to home quicker. -
Prime-time Television
- TV on demand will be more and more popular, but prime-time will exist for some things, like sports, and new releases of TV on demand.
This list seems to have some things that are definitely dying, and others that the author is guessing at because something "cool" exists that might mean it phases out. Some things will not be directly replaced."Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
May 15th, 2012 at 9:17:44 AM
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Quote: thecesspit
- Movie Theaters
- Hmmm, not sure on that one yet. But I can see Movies being straight to home quicker.- Prime-time Television
- TV on demand will be more and more popular, but prime-time will exist for some things, like sports, and new releases of TV on demand.
This list seems to have some things that are definitely dying, and others that the author is guessing at because something "cool" exists that might mean it phases out. Some things will not be directly replaced.
They have been predicting the demise of movie theaters since the beginning of TV. It may not be a growth business, but it is unlikely to go extinct.
The demise of networks has also been discussed for several years. Once again it may not be a growth business, but it doesn't seem to be going extinct.
May 15th, 2012 at 9:22:43 AM
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Quote: pacomartin
They have been predicting the demise of movie theaters since the beginning of TV. It may not be a growth business, but it is unlikely to go extinct.
The demise of networks has also been discussed for several years. Once again it may not be a growth business, but it doesn't seem to be going extinct.
Neither will totally die off, but theatres seem to have loked themselvs into a death spiral. I did an audit at one nearby, had seen its better days. The manager had been there 20 years and said concession prices were killing things. Many theatre chains are disguised real estate plays.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
May 15th, 2012 at 9:23:34 AM
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Quote: AZDuffmanNeither will totally die off, but theatres seem to have loked themselvs into a death spiral. I did an audit at one nearby, had seen its better days. The manager had been there 20 years and said concession prices were killing things. Many theatre chains are disguised real estate plays.
The price of the concession stand food being so high?
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
May 15th, 2012 at 9:32:01 AM
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Quote: thecesspitThis list seems to have some things that are definitely dying, and others that the author is guessing at because something "cool" exists that might mean it phases out. Some things will not be directly replaced.
The list really consists of just two kinds of things:
1) Things that are already dead
2) Things that aren't going anywhere anytime soon
Fax machines, for one, are dead already. You can still see some, but they're just holdovers.
Windowed operating systems, on the other hand, are not going anywhere. They don't make sense for cell phones, because phones don't need multitasking. They still make as much sense for desktops as when they were invented.
That the blog author doesn't really need a multitasking OS and could be perfectly served by Control Program/Monitor with a prettied-up hardcoded font does not make everything more advanced obsolete.
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May 15th, 2012 at 9:41:55 AM
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Here's the original article.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
