Newest urban electric vehicle
Quote: P90Congratulations on your single-handed environmental footprint of two complete American families, at least in this regard.
Uh, whatever "envrionmental footprint" means, but thanks. It is quite simple, however. Most of our jobs are some distance away-one at a particular resort. And my day job is where it is, I'm not moving because the day job could change. Right now I have a second side-jon in the works that I expect could add even more need to make similar trips in the evening. Such jobs pay far better and have more flexibility than say a c-store clerk. The tradeoff is you need to go where the work it.
It hasn't yet with me, but I did quite a few times when I needed the cargo space.
Quote:You can't always get everything at once with new technology.
No, but until the new technology does at least the basics at least as well as the old one, it will not be adopted.
Quote:Before applephone, a typical cell would last about a week of moderate use on one charge, the worst to happen after tossing it across the room is the battery cover would come off, there were plenty of water-resistant models if you wanted more, and some could do a month on one charge.
Now the battery isn't even expected to have anything by the end of the day, you have to check if it isn't smashed after falling off a table, and despite the lack of buttons, there is a grand total of one model with at least splash resistance. Yet next to everyone goes for it.
Not a valid comparrison.
Yes, they choose it because it has more utility. I use mine to scan doccuments, mostly. It can also check and send my email; check web pages (though not as good as a PC); find me the nearest Starbucks; be a poker timer; and hundreds of other things. OTOH, an EV does NOTHING more than a gasoline powerd car does. And it has considerable drawbacks, which I will not repeat. Even if you solve the distance-and-charging issues it still just does the same thing a gasoline powerd car does. It really cannot do it "better" in most respects. It cannot do it "faster" as speed limits and congestion will not change. That leaves "cheaper" which is nowhere in sight.
Quote:people often hope future technology to work exactly like today's, but better. Despite the telegraph being close to two centuries old, most fiction writers expected newspapers of the space age to come on microfilm, not through a transnational electrical network.
And the idea of clothes irons with cables to be plugged in is ridiculous - of course their future super-material would just hold heat from the stove for a whole hour. Or even better, it would be just like a charcoal iron, except you load it with chunks of uranium that keep it hot for years.
Loading the iron with uranium might have promise. Your statement kind of makes my point. People think charging the electric is the way to go. But it didn't work 100 years ago, it doesn't work now, and physics suggests it won't work 100 years from now. But perhaps we could design a car-sized nuke. Why not? Size of today's engine blocks, charges a battery over and over, and that drives the electric motor. Call it a postmodern nuke-electric.
But today's EVs? After the greenies buy the initial surge it will be a very hard sell.
Quote: AZDuffmanNo, but until the new technology does at least the basics at least as well as the old one, it will not be adopted.
Smartphones don't do the basics half as well as a regular cell phone.
They are bulkier. A regular phone fits well in any pocket, smartphones are fairly large.
You can't type a number blind, like you can with a proper phone, but have to look at the screen to press the virtual buttons.
The charge only lasts till the end of the day, at best a little into the next day.
With some of them, you even need special Vulcan training just to hold it right.
And have I mentioned durability or lack thereof.
Quote: AZDuffmanEven if you solve the distance-and-charging issues it still just does the same thing a gasoline powerd car does. It really cannot do it "better" in most respects.
An electric car is potentially significantly more reliable and easier to service. It's cleaner, quieter, and a charging station is much more compact and easier to operate than a gas station. It's not cheaper yet, but when gas becomes say $10 a gallon, a lot of people will wonder if it's better to pay once for the batteries or daily for the gas.
With your driving of 150mi/day and probably 30mpg, it's $50/d*365=$18,250/year in gas costs, or $91,250 for 5 years, and modern batt packs last more than 5 years. You may choose to stay with gas on principle, but some people will certainly switch.
Exactly. And no one is going to do it. Because no one really needs a cordless clothes iron with 5 year load.Quote: AZDuffmanLoading the iron with uranium might have promise.
Technical difficulties aside - because it has no serious advantages over a plain battery electric. The range provided by a battery pack with a lightweight streamlined car is enough for most everyone.Quote: AZDuffmanBut perhaps we could design a car-sized nuke. Why not? Size of today's engine blocks, charges a battery over and over, and that drives the electric motor.
When every parking lot has charging outlets, a casual driver will rarely see his charge drop more than 10% from normal. Commercial drivers, in taxicabs or trucks, can simply switch battery packs. Regular cars could too, but there are psychological barriers preventing it.
For those few times a year when you do need to take an interstate trip, you'll just have to decide whether the pleasure of driving for 16 hours non-stop once in a while is worth paying extra for fuel every day.
People are holding on to the range argument just because they are used to having a long/unlimited range, regardless of whether they actually need it.
Quote: AZDuffmanBut it didn't work 100 years ago, it doesn't work now, and physics suggests it won't work 100 years from now.
It works now just fine. An average American drives about 33 miles per day.
In 100 years, assuming that progress hasn't stopped and more Americans still go to church than mosque, urbanization will continue. Larger cities, taller buildings, more condominiums, higher density. And if electric vehicle economy develops, charging nearly everywhere, since it's easy to provide and bill. Long commutes are a waste of time, not just gas, and developing an efficient economy requires getting rid of them.
Quote: P90Smartphones don't do the basics half as well as a regular cell phone.
They are bulkier. A regular phone fits well in any pocket, smartphones are fairly large.
You can't type a number blind, like you can with a proper phone, but have to look at the screen to press the virtual buttons.
The charge only lasts till the end of the day, at best a little into the next day.
With some of them, you even need special Vulcan training just to hold it right.
And have I mentioned durability or lack thereof.
Check out the iPhone then. A little less than the size of a USD bill. My charge goes a day and a half, even longer if I don't use lots of my apps.
Quote:An electric car is potentially significantly more reliable and easier to service. It's cleaner, quieter, and a charging station is much more compact and easier to operate than a gas station. It's not cheaper yet, but when gas becomes say $10 a gallon, a lot of people will wonder if it's better to pay once for the batteries or daily for the gas.
Fewer moving parts, yes. Quieter, marginally but there is talk they will force them to make noise for benefit of blind pedestrians. Battery life still a question, and even at $10/gal gas the payback is still years. As gas gets to that level; other liquid fuels will become viable on a cost basis before the electric will. Smaller to build a charging station than a gas station? What are you, kidding me?
Imagine a one-pump station. You need the space in front of that pump to fuel a car, which takes 10 minutes, tops. At 50% capacity for a 8 hour shift that means you can refuel 18 cars in that one spot. (You can refuel far more, I am being generous.) To refuel the same 18 EVs you need 18 parking spaces, not one. And the customers need to wait around, truck-stop style, while they refuel. How on earth is this more compact?
Quote:With your driving of 150mi/day and probably 30mpg, it's $50/d*365=$18,250/year in gas costs, or $91,250 for 5 years, and modern batt packs last more than 5 years. You may choose to stay with gas on principle, but some people will certainly switch.
Your figures are faulty. I do not drive that far every day. Two weeks ago I drove that much 3 times. Last week none. Next week probably once. My car new would be about $16,000. The cheapest EV, without the subsidy, is $40,000. And that EV does not give me the utility my car has. I repeat, no rational customer will switch based on cost.
Quote:When every parking lot has charging outlets, a casual driver will rarely see his charge drop more than 10% from normal. Commercial drivers, in taxicabs or trucks, can simply switch battery packs. Regular cars could too, but there are psychological barriers preventing it.
And who is going to pay for all of those charging stations? As to switching battery packs, why? Why get dirty doing that, get acid all over your hands, when you can just pull up to the pump and refuel? Big step backwards.
Quote:For those few times a year when you do need to take an interstate trip, you'll just have to decide whether the pleasure of driving for 16 hours non-stop once in a while is worth paying extra for fuel every day.
People are holding on to the range argument just because they are used to having a long/unlimited range, regardless of whether they actually need it.
It isn't a 16 hour trip, it is a THREE hour trip that puts the electric at the end of it's range. That is three total hours, an hour and a half each way. And that assumes you just drive there and never use the car, which you probably will. People are holding on to the range "argument" because it is valid--EV range is unsatisfactroy for how most people use their cars.
Quote:It works now just fine. An average American drives about 33 miles per day.
This stat keeps getting repeated over and over. Looks as if it is based on a 12,000 mile per year average. It misses several points. First, many commute that far just one way. Second, maybe you do an average of 20 a day but once a week need to go 200. And there is well beyond the range of the electric. It also assumes most people have a nice garage to park and recharge in, I'd say half the USA does not and instead parks onstreet or in a lot of some type, again killing the EV.
Or, as we know on this site, it isn't the average but the varriance that can kill you.
Quote:In 100 years, assuming that progress hasn't stopped and more Americans still go to church than mosque, urbanization will continue. Larger cities, taller buildings, more condominiums, higher density. And if electric vehicle economy develops, charging nearly everywhere, since it's easy to provide and bill. Long commutes are a waste of time, not just gas, and developing an efficient economy requires getting rid of them.
Our history of urbanization is against this. In the USA we have mostly built OUT, not UP. Look at Long Island, hard to find anything over a few stories and very car-dependent. Go to Phoenix Metro. Once several cities with definable suburbe (Phoenix, Glendale, Scottsdale, Tempe, Glendale) is now one big metroplex and all individual units with a nice, small yard. And the "lot charging" I do not see taking off. Big investment for the owners and they will pass that on to charging customers, negating the (claimed) benefit from paying thru the home meter. Forget having "charging stations" like we do gas stations, space dictates it would be next to impossible to turn a profit with the space needed. Americans are going to want to gas-n-go, done in 10 minutes.
Quote: P90The charge only lasts till the end of the day, at best a little into the next day.
With some of them, you even need special Vulcan training just to hold it right.
And have I mentioned durability or lack thereof.
Quote: AZDuffmanCheck out the iPhone then. A little less than the size of a USD bill. My charge goes a day and a half
What phone did you think I was talking about? There aren't any others known to require Vulcan grip and to shatter after falling just a couple feet.
Quote: AZDuffmanFewer moving parts, yes. Quieter, marginally but there is talk they will force them to make noise for benefit of blind pedestrians.
They already have sound devices on some of these cars. But it's not the same noise, it's a higher frequency signal that is easily audible up close, but doesn't create the same road rumble.
Quote: AZDuffmanBattery life still a question, and even at $10/gal gas the payback is still years.
Less than one year for your amount of driving.
Quote: AZDuffmanSmaller to build a charging station than a gas station? What are you, kidding me?
Are you serious here? Yes, much smaller. A hundred pounds of copper and rubber versus a hundred tons of metal and concrete.
Quote: AZDuffmanImagine a one-pump station. You need the space in front of that pump to fuel a car, which takes 10 minutes, tops. At 50% capacity for a 8 hour shift that means you can refuel 18 cars in that one spot. (You can refuel far more, I am being generous.) To refuel the same 18 EVs you need 18 parking spaces, not one. And the customers need to wait around, truck-stop style, while they refuel.
Once again you are thinking in terms of charcoal clothes irons and horse stables.
You don't build big dedicated charging stations, like you need dedicated gas stations with underground cisterns and pumps.
A charging outlet is a thick cable, a relay box and a few sockets.
It's simpler - any organized parking can function as a charging station. You drive to work, park your car, it's charging there. Stop at a motel, charge there. You don't take trips to a charging station and don't stand and wait there on purpose - just get the charge topped up wherever you go.
With a more developed EV network, one option is wireless charging, another a simpler slot/arm system, eliminating the need to even plug it in manually. You park, your car's wireless recognizes a charging station signal, a connection is engaged automatically, if your settings allow it.
Instead of 10 minutes pumping gas, it's 0 minutes not even thinking about it.
Quote: AZDuffmanAs to switching battery packs, why? Why get dirty doing that, get acid all over your hands, when you can just pull up to the pump and refuel?
What acid, is US about to invade Vietnam soon? Developmental EV don't use lead-acid batteries. And if you get acid all over your hands whenever you replace your car's battery, you should hire a mechanic. Just a friendly bit of advice, acid is not good for your skin.
Battery switching is already implemented in industrial settings, and all the manual effort it takes is pressing a button. Slide out, slide in, all powered, and good to go in under a minute.
Quote: AZDuffmanThis stat keeps getting repeated over and over. Looks as if it is based on a 12,000 mile per year average. It misses several points. First, many commute that far just one way. Second, maybe you do an average of 20 a day but once a week need to go 200.
These stats have been researched as well. Most people drive within, IIRC, about 100km radius. That's a worldwide stat from Nissan's study, which is admittedly likely biased.
Also, 20*6+200=320, which doesn't average to 33/day. Even then, the range of modern and developmental EV is about 250 miles for higher-end models.
Should you need to travel more than that, yes, you might have to consider options. First, ways of travel other than cars. Planes, trains, whatever. Second, you might have to plan your trip with a few stops along the way. Safe charging time for lithiums is about an hour with sufficient current. It's a delay, but it's not a delay impossible to deal with a few times per year.
And we're not talking decades into the future, Model S rated for sub-hour charge to 80% is right around the corner.
...just fine for EV - since all you need is a piece of cable, a breaker box, and a plug.Quote: AZDuffmanIt also assumes most people have a nice garage to park and recharge in, I'd say half the USA does not and instead parks onstreet or in a lot of some type, again...
I want unlimited range without ever refueling or paying for gas, oh, and it should fly. But guess what? Right. That.Quote: AZDuffmanAmericans are going to want to gas-n-go, done in 10 minutes.
There is barely enough gas for just 1 billion cars in the world today. There very clearly isn't going to be enough gas for 10 billion cars in 100 years. And long before that, too.
There are multiple viable replacements, with battery-electric one of the most practical for urban settings.
Quote: P90
You don't build big dedicated charging stations, like you need dedicated gas stations with underground cisterns and pumps.
A charging outlet is a thick cable, a relay box and a few sockets.
It's simpler - any organized parking can function as a charging station. You drive to work, park your car, it's charging there. Stop at a motel, charge there. You don't take trips to a charging station and don't stand and wait there on purpose - just get the charge topped up wherever you go.Quote:
I think you are totally forgetting the electrical infrastructure that it would (will) take to charge millions of vehicles. The energy being used (adjusted for possible reduced weight and possibly increased efficiency) will still be the same. Our electrical distribution has not anywhere near the spare capacity to handle this increase in load. We have brown outs already because we don't have the distribution capacity to get power from the north where they need it in the winter to the places that need it for AC in the summer and vice versa. It will take 100's of billions of dollars to upgrade the distribution capacity without even talking about the energy generation. The cost of the electrical distribution system improvements could be close to the current gasoline distribution system infrastructure.
Who should pay these costs? Currently gas powered vehicles pay for all the costs associated with distributing the energy required for their vehicles. Surely you would expect the owners of the electric vehicles to pay these costs as well and not off load them onto the government. Even the charging stations are more than a fat cable. Fast charging batteries involve "smart" chargers as currently manufactured by Siemens at a cost of several thousand each.
All these $ and environmental costs need to be factored in before we can determine if electric cars are any easier on society or the environment. To date all we see is car ads claiming 0 emissions which anyone with 1/2 a brain knows is BS.Be careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
Quote: kenarmanI think you are totally forgetting the electrical infrastructure that it would (will) take to charge millions of vehicles. The energy being used (adjusted for possible reduced weight and possibly increased efficiency) will still be the same. Our electrical distribution has not anywhere near the spare capacity to handle this increase in load. We have brown outs already because we don't have the distribution capacity to get power from the north where they need it in the winter to the places that need it for AC in the summer and vice versa. It will take 100's of billions of dollars to upgrade the distribution capacity without even talking about the energy generation.
I'm not disputing the cost estimate, the number $400 billion is bandied about. But a lot of that should be returned by eliminating the $80 billion per year in losses. I thought part of the reason was to make electric vehicles possible. BTW China is planning to do it by 2020.
Quote: pacomartinI'm not disputing the cost estimate, the number $400 billion is bandied about. But a lot of that should be returned by eliminating the $80 billion per year in losses. I thought part of the reason was to make electric vehicles possible. BTW China is planning to do it by 2020.
You lost me on the $80 / year losses?
Quote: kenarmanYou lost me on the $80 / year losses?
Sorry. It costs us $80 billion/ year on transmission losses, without High Voltage Direct Current transmission lines. While the investment costs are high, there should be immediate returns in cost savings and a fairly short ROI time. ONce completed there should be energy for electric vehicles.
Quote: kenarmanIt will take 100's of billions of dollars to upgrade the distribution capacity without even talking about the energy generation. The cost of the electrical distribution system improvements could be close to the current gasoline distribution system infrastructure.
There is that. But an upgrade of the electrical grid is needed anyway, and gasoline infrastructure doesn't last forever on its own either. To get millions of EV out there, we're not talking about just a few years.
While energy generation has substantial costs, don't forget it's a private industry. Consumers pay a certain price for power, and that price covers building and maintaining the infrastructure involved. We're not talking about a handout.
And even with all that, even if it comes up due to demand, the cost of electrical power remains only a fraction of the cost of gasoline required for the same effect.
Just a quick calculation... gas costs about $1/L in US, that is $1/34MJ. The best gasoline engines extract about 10MJ out of it, but these are high-rev formula car drivetrains, new Porsche engines, a few select small-displacement units, nothing cheap on the list, you need expensive injection and control systems. An average engine only extracts 5-7MJ/L, for a cost of $0.15-$0.20/MJ at current gas price.
Electricity costs $0.12/kWh=$0.12/3.6MJ=$0.033/MJ, and it's delivered through battery and motors at 70% to 90% efficiency, boosted by regenerative braking and direct accessory power, for $0.04/MJ. Practical difference is greater as EVs tend to be more efficient overall as well. Cost and efficiency are linked here as well. Lead-acid and NiCd batteries are only about 80% efficient, while lithiums deliver a full 99%. Price at wheels then ranges between $0.035/MJ and $0.045/MJ.
That's a difference between 3 times in high-end segment and 4 times in low-end segment. So it requires an investment, but it's much cheaper than oil in any reasonable run including paying off that investment. The price stated is not subsidized, it's slightly higher than total costs at about $0.10/kWh.
As to what the investment is, nuclear plant capacity costs between $5,000 and $8,000 per GWe. 1 GWe*yr is about 8,000 GWh, so taking the higher figure arrives at $1/(GWh/yr). Driving a EV 12,000 miles requires between 3,000 kWh and 5,000 kWh, depending on its size and efficiency. That is a one-time investment, for advanced nuclear power, at the highest cost estimate, of $3,000-$5,000 per electric vehicle. Not really all that much. And it's not on top of electricity price, but included in it.
For a more visual representation of the scale, a single new build nuclear power plant with 4 reactors, per usual, will have a capacity of 6,000-6,400 MWe, or about 50,000 GWh/year. That is sufficient to power 10,000,000-15,000,000 electric vehicles, losses included.
Putting things even more into perspective, a typical low SEER home A/C consumes about 3,500 kWh/year. So a new electric vehicle only consumes as much power over the year as an aircon.
Quote: P90Are you serious here? Yes, much smaller. A hundred pounds of copper and rubber versus a hundred tons of metal and concrete.
Once again you are thinking in terms of charcoal clothes irons and horse stables.
You don't build big dedicated charging stations, like you need dedicated gas stations with underground cisterns and pumps.
A charging outlet is a thick cable, a relay box and a few sockets.
It's simpler - any organized parking can function as a charging station. You drive to work, park your car, it's charging there. Stop at a motel, charge there. You don't take trips to a charging station and don't stand and wait there on purpose - just get the charge topped up wherever you go.
You forgot to add "per car" to your charging station estimate. I've been hearing all this about charging stations for years yet never hear how these things will be paid for? Garage owners are not going to accept a payback more than a few years. Cities are already bankrupt, think they are going to put a station at each parking meter? How? In case you do not check commodity prices, copper is already near generational highs, wait until all this demand. Sorry, I don't see it happening.
Quote:With a more developed EV network, one option is wireless charging, another a simpler slot/arm system, eliminating the need to even plug it in manually. You park, your car's wireless recognizes a charging station signal, a connection is engaged automatically, if your settings allow it.
Instead of 10 minutes pumping gas, it's 0 minutes not even thinking about it.
Read Bob Lutz's latest book "Guts." It shows how while this kind of idea can be shown in a lab, it never comes close in the real world. Wireless has been worked on since Mr Tesla proposed it 100 years ago but it is still decades away. If we get it working it will be how solar power works, satellite in space and beam lots of power back to earth. If this dows work on a small scale before that, expect it to bervery expensive-adding to the cost of the 500 charging stations all those parking garages need to add.
Quote:What acid, is US about to invade Vietnam soon? Developmental EV don't use lead-acid batteries. And if you get acid all over your hands whenever you replace your car's battery, you should hire a mechanic. Just a friendly bit of advice, acid is not good for your skin.
Battery switching is already implemented in industrial settings, and all the manual effort it takes is pressing a button. Slide out, slide in, all powered, and good to go in under a minute.
I know quite well how to change a car battery, have been doing it for 25 years now when my car needs one. I know acid is bad, which is why I use a shop rag to hold the battery and still wash my hands after. But it is also why I don't want to handle a battery instead of a gas pump. Forget scaling down industrial battery switching to a car, unless you want to use one design of car, forever, for every person. If Nissan and Toyota want different styling they you are out of luck. Go to Pep Boys and see how many group sizes of car batteries we have now for an example.
Quote:Should you need to travel more than that, yes, you might have to consider options. First, ways of travel other than cars. Planes, trains, whatever. Second, you might have to plan your trip with a few stops along the way. Safe charging time for lithiums is about an hour with sufficient current. It's a delay, but it's not a delay impossible to deal with a few times per year.
And we're not talking decades into the future, Model S rated for sub-hour charge to 80% is right around the corner.
My trips are from a low density area to a low density area. Other modes will not work. And I'll be dammed if I am going to add three hours to my trip to go to the airport and wait for a flight that probably does not leave when I need to leave for a 300-500 mile trip. That is why I prefer to drive for short trips now.
Quote:There is barely enough gas for just 1 billion cars in the world today. There very clearly isn't going to be enough gas for 10 billion cars in 100 years. And long before that, too.
There are multiple viable replacements, with battery-electric one of the most practical for urban settings.
That is why we are looking at CNG, wood based cellulose, and gas-from-coal. All help meet needs without the need to build a totally new infrastructure. As to the comment on the Chinese doing this stuff by 2020 I put near zero trust in what they say. Simple fact is EVs are not now nor do they look in the near future to be a viable vehicle for 98% of the US Population.
If electrics were any good, I wouldn't have to help pay for people who want to buy a Volt or Leaf.
Quote: P90Just a quick calculation... gas costs about $1/L in US, that is $1/34MJ. The best gasoline engines extract about 10MJ out of it, but these are high-rev formula car drivetrains, new Porsche engines, a few select small-displacement units, nothing cheap on the list, you need expensive injection and control systems. An average engine only extracts 5-7MJ/L, for a cost of $0.15-$0.20/MJ at current gas price.
Electricity costs $0.12/kWh=$0.12/3.6MJ=$0.033/MJ, and it's delivered through battery and motors at 70% to 90% efficiency, boosted by regenerative braking and direct accessory power, for $0.04/MJ. Practical difference is greater as EVs tend to be more efficient overall as well. Cost and efficiency are linked here as well. Lead-acid and NiCd batteries are only about 80% efficient, while lithiums deliver a full 99%. Price at wheels then ranges between $0.035/MJ and $0.045/MJ.
That's a difference between 3 times in high-end segment and 4 times in low-end segment. So it requires an investment, but it's much cheaper than oil in any reasonable run including paying off that investment. The price stated is not subsidized, it's slightly higher than total costs at about $0.10/kWh.
I think P90 has done an important calculation here. For most of our lives we have regarded liquid fuel as a way to distribute high energy content at a cheap cost to the home, factory, or automobile. Electricity was always much more expensive.
On a raw energy basis a gallon of gasoline has the energy content of 33.41 kWh . In this part of PA, electricity costs $0.10813 / kWh, or $3.613 for the equivalent energy of a gallon of gasoline. That is nearly the same as the price at the pump. The overall efficiency of the EV accounts for the rest of the multiple.
Doing a similar calculation, in the Northeast where home heating oil (HHO) is still widely used, only two years ago the energy content of HHO per dollar was almost double that of electricity. Now they are within a few percentage of each other.
Quote: pacomartinI think P90 has done an important calculation here. For most of our lives we have regarded liquid fuel as a way to distribute high energy content at a cheap cost to the home, factory, or automobile. Electricity was always much more expensive.
On a raw energy basis a gallon of gasoline has the energy content of 33.41 kWh . In this part of PA, electricity costs $0.10813 / kWh, or $3.613 for the equivalent energy of a gallon of gasoline. That is nearly the same as the price at the pump. The overall efficiency of the EV accounts for the rest of the multiple.
Doing a similar calculation, in the Northeast where home heating oil (HHO) is still widely used, only two years ago the energy content of HHO per dollar was almost double that of electricity. Now they are within a few percentage of each other.
Paco I don't dispute P90's energy calculation but the cost of the infrastructure upgrade is not reflected in the electrical cost. The infrastructure throughout North America is a mess and needs substantial upgrade. There is already a major public outcry at the 50% increase in rates that most suppliers say they need to get the transmission infrastructure to where it needs to be. Add the cost of the 25% increase in capacity to service electric vehicles and we could see close to a doubling of the cost of the electricity.
P90 has also not included the cost of the batteries. Currently batteries for the hybrids are in the $5000 dollar range and last 5 years = $1000 / year. If we take the 12,000 miles a year the typical vehicle puts on we have an additional 1000/12000 = $.083 / mile cost of operating a hybrid. While battery costs could come down with volume they will need more capacity to be viable and the EV will not likely travel as much so this number may not substantially change. This will be a significant cost for the owner as well as a large enviromental cost for both production and disposal.
Quote: kenarmanPaco I don't dispute P90's energy calculation but the cost of the infrastructure upgrade is not reflected in the electrical cost. The infrastructure throughout North America is a mess and needs substantial upgrade.
It's often pointed out that the surface area of a dome is probably less than 2% of the surface area of the accumulated buildings in mid-town manhattan. The potential energy savings are huge.
I agree with you about the infrastructure upgrade for all of North America, but what about 3000 acres in mid-town Manhattan. What would it take to route the gasoline vehicles around the dome, and make use with public transportation, EV's and pedestrian transport inside.
I think a fair portion of the price at the pump is in highway construction/repair taxes, since it is assumed that the vehicles that require the roads and wear them out will be paying for them through fuel purchases. How would it impact the calculations if highway construction and repair costs were added into the price of just that portion of electricity sales used to power road vehicles? If you change the transportation system to electric-powered vehicles, how do you generate funds for the roads unless that portion of the electricity is taxed extra (or something equivalent)?Quote: pacomartinIn this part of PA, electricity costs $0.10813 / kWh, or $3.613 for the equivalent energy of a gallon of gasoline. That is nearly the same as the price at the pump.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou forgot to add "per car" to your charging station estimate.
A few hundred pounds is per station, like a parking garage level, not per car. The current isn't all that high, especially if we raise the voltage. 120V is overly wasteful, and since power is relay-controlled anyway (it's not hot if there is no EV connected), there is little to no safety reason not to use medium voltage. The station can, should, and by technology maturity time will likely be connected directly to the distribution grid, or to a higher voltage than the mains.
Quote: AZDuffmanI've been hearing all this about charging stations for years yet never hear how these things will be paid for?
How do you think? Eventually through markup. Tesla is also using part of car price to install a network of fast (30 minute to 80%) chargers for its new cars. Until EVs overtake the market, most of such stations will be partially subsidized.
Charging controllers, at least in Teslas, are located in the car, keeping the cost of stations down, and it will keep decreasing as they become less exotic.
Quote: AZDuffmanRead Bob Lutz's latest book "Guts." It shows how while this kind of idea can be shown in a lab, it never comes close in the real world. Wireless has been worked on since Mr Tesla proposed it 100 years ago but it is still decades away.
There are wireless EV charging stations already, in both Europe and US. It's not fiction, it's not in a lab, it's on the streets. You can already go there and charge if your vehicle supports it.
But more likely, especially in US, is a simple mechanical system.
Quote: AZDuffmanBut it is also why I don't want to handle a battery instead of a gas pump. Forget scaling down industrial battery switching to a car, unless you want to use one design of car, forever, for every person.
There is no acid in newer EV batteries, they are lithium-ion units. By the way, some newer regular cars also offer a lithium battery as an option.
Battery switching is primarily an option for commercial fleet users, since private users have additional psychological difficulties swapping their used battery for someone else's used battery that must have cooties.
Quote: AZDuffmanSimple fact is EVs are not now nor do they look in the near future to be a viable vehicle for 98% of the US Population.
You are not the 98%, you are the 2%, with your job 100 miles r/t away.
Most people either both live and work in a densely populated area, or live in a moderately populated area and work in a densely populated area, or, at least, both work and live in the same moderately populated area. For all of which cases EV's range is just fine.
And it's not like they are very expensive. Yes, there are no cheap EV options for now. So they are starting closer to midrange. There - Model S is priced right against Mercedes E-class, but Tesla has similar or better engine performance, way better handling, slightly better features, and on looks it wins hands down. The top model actually does as much on a tank as the top E-class (both 300 miles), and 30 minute unattended vs 10 minute attended time to recharge or refuel is not a deal-breaker.
So... if I was in the market for a nice saloon, and presuming at least a basic network, yes, I can totally see myself getting a Tesla, and not even because it's electric, just on value. Though they usually sell out before they even ship, but if I could get one, very viable option.
Quote: kenarmanP90 has also not included the cost of the batteries.
Of course not, why would I? Batteries are already included in vehicle prices. Newer ones last about the useful life of a vehicle, so they aren't an additional cost to include.
On the environmental side, lithium batteries are considered clean, disposal is not a hazard. Neither is production, and they don't use any scarce resources. Recycling is desirable, but not critical.
Quote: DocI think a fair portion of the price at the pump is in highway construction/repair taxes, since it is assumed that the vehicles that require the roads and wear them out will be paying for them through fuel purchases.
That's in Europe and UK. In US, gasoline and diesel are almost tax-free, they sell for about cost.
For instance, oil is currently about $98/barrel WTI, $114/barrel Brent, one barrel=42 gallons, so that's $2.33 to $2.71 per gallon. That's price at port, you have to ship it yourself, then break it down into products, process as required, distribute, etc.
Quote:How do you think? Eventually through markup. Tesla is also using part of car price to install a network of fast (30 minute to 80%) chargers for its new cars. Until EVs overtake the market, most of such stations will be partially subsidized.
Subsidized by whom? Hopefully you do not mean my tax dollars, or by charging me a higer rate to park my gasoline powered car.
Quote:You are not the 98%, you are the 2%, with your job 100 miles r/t away.
Most people either both live and work in a densely populated area, or live in a moderately populated area and work in a densely populated area, or, at least, both work and live in the same moderately populated area. For all of which cases EV's range is just fine.
Seriously, you need to quit reading what the book says and look at the real world. Where I work now most people commute at least 25 miles eacch way, some many more. And many do things after work, adding more miles. When I was in Phoenix, 25 miles was a short commute, and the heat there killed batteries. Other places I workes you had to use your car to make sales calls, 100+ miles per day easily added up. Instead of going on and on again I will repeat from last time, "It isn't the 'average' daily use, it is the 'varriance.'" Most people need the ability to go several hundred miles in a day 12-20 times per year. Needing that varriance that often means the range of the EV is completely inadequate for their needs.
Quote:So... if I was in the market for a nice saloon, and presuming at least a basic network, yes, I can totally see myself getting a Tesla, and not even because it's electric, just on value. Though they usually sell out before they even ship, but if I could get one, very viable option.
By all means, buy one and enjoy. If I see you on the side of the road, batteries dead, I will even give you a ride to the nexgt town without a SITYS.
Quote: P90
That's in Europe and UK. In US, gasoline and diesel are almost tax-free, they sell for about cost.
Taxes on gasoline in the US average about 10% with a wide variance by state and even local government taxes. This tax will need to be replaced and to be fair added to the cost of electricity used for vehicles.
Here in North Carolina, we pay a combined federal and state tax of 58.55 cents per gallon of gasoline and 68.55 cents per gallon of diesel fuel. That's cheaper than in Europe, but I think it's a distortion to call them "almost tax-free." Why not accept that a comparable amount of funds would need to be collected for road construction and repair, even if we all used electric vehicles, and include that in the calculations for "fuel" costs of an electric vehicle?Quote: P90In US, gasoline and diesel are almost tax-free, they sell for about cost.
Quote: P90Of course not, why would I? Batteries are already included in vehicle prices. Newer ones last about the useful life of a vehicle, so they aren't an additional cost to include.
On the environmental side, lithium batteries are considered clean, disposal is not a hazard. Neither is production, and they don't use any scarce resources. Recycling is desirable, but not critical.Quote:
Current batteries are 5 years as in my previous post. Are you taking the expected life of EV's at 5 years?
The production of lithium is not considered environmentally friendly and current sources are not expected to be able to keep up with the demand if EV's were to become wide spread. MeridianInternationalBe careful when you follow the masses, the M is sometimes silent.
Quote: AZDuffmanSubsidized by whom? Hopefully you do not mean my tax dollars, or by charging me a higer rate to park my gasoline powered car.
Charging stations for Model S, by the company itself, from the vehicles' purchase price. Others are partially subsidized by environmental budget. It's already there, it's supposed to be used for environmental protection purposes, it is one.
Quote: AZDuffmanSeriously, you need to quit reading what the book says and look at the real world. Where I work now most people commute at least 25 miles eacch way, some many more.
And I just played a hand of blackjack and won 1.5 my bet! Quit reading what losers tell you about blackjack being a losing game to justify their losing and look at the real world.
Attacking statistics with anecdote - on this forum, seriously?
We've established that you have a long commute, stands to reason that people near you do too.
Quote: AZDuffmanBy all means, buy one and enjoy. If I see you on the side of the road, batteries dead, I will even give you a ride to the nexgt town without a SITYS.
Make sure to give me a quick math test while at that, and check my head for bruises. It would take a serious blow to make me incapable of simple division and addition required to avoid it.
Don't forget it has the same range as a gasoline car, just takes a different station to refill.
Quote: kenarmanTaxes on gasoline in the US average about 10% with a wide variance by state and even local government taxes.
Yes. But that is about the same as the usual sales and/or other taxes you pay on most purchases. So there is no particular taxation on gasoline.
Adding that, though, at 10% average, would be ~$3/gal*0.1=$0.3/gal, at 30mpg $0.01/mile, and so $120/year. For a low-mpg clunker or higher gas price, $150-$200/year.
Most EV buyers can afford a similar tax I think.
Quote: kenarmanCurrent batteries are 5 years as in my previous post.
They are not, they are 8-10 years and more.
The batteries on Model S have an 8 year warranty. If you believe your battery will die after 5 years - well, you just get a new one for free then.
Quote: kenarmanThe production of lithium is not considered environmentally friendly and current sources are not expected to be able to keep up with the demand if EV's were to become wide spread.
There are multiple studies with differing conclusions on this topic. Every industry has environmental impact; production of lithium batteries isn't considered more harmful than other industries.
As for running out, current sources are sufficient for about 1 billion EV, total for 2 billion. Less than 1/4 of lithium production is even used for batteries. Consider that there is only 1 billion cars in the world now... and we're talking about maybe a million EV in a decade.
By the time it becomes a significant number, there will be other battery technologies available. Wait - there are other battery technologies, they just don't have the range of lithiums. But the reason we need that range is because there isn't enough charging outlets, and there isn't enough charging outlets because there isn't enough EVs. So scarcity isn't a concern here, Li-Ion is a tool for early adoption.
Discuss.
>:)
Quote: P90Charging stations for Model S, by the company itself, from the vehicles' purchase price. Others are partially subsidized by environmental budget. It's already there, it's supposed to be used for environmental protection purposes, it is one.
No, it is not an "envrionmental purpose," it is subsidizing one special interest. Envrionmental items might include mitigation of spills; cleanup of sites abandoned 50+ years ago and no owner to chase for payment; building/repairing/removing a dam, things that benefit society. Subsidizing a toy for Yuppies is not envrionmental as EVs are no better to the envrionment than anything else, the impact is just in different places.
Quote:Seriously? Attacking statistics with anecdote - on this forum?
Smnart businessmen know when to look at statistics and when to use common sense, which may include anecdotal evidence. Steve Jobs ignored "statistics" and consumer surveys all of the time.
Quote:Don't forget it has the same range as a gasoline car, just takes a different station to refill.
It doesn't. It takes 5-8 hours to get just more than half the range my gasoline car gets in 10 minutes to fill. Don't forget as well that batteries decline in storage capacity as they get older. In 5r years your range can be expected to fall, possibly a very great deal.
Quote: AZDuffmanSubsidizing a toy for Yuppies is not envrionmental as EVs are no better to the envrionment than anything else, the impact is just in different places.
The impact is lower. Power plants are significantly more efficient than car engines, so they produce less CO2.
But you said yourself you don't believe in CO2; hopefully you don't dispute that poisons can be bad for your health, at least? And if so, all that should concern you is whether a vehicle contaminates where people live.
Even newer coal power plants have contaminant capture systems. As for older ones... at least they aren't in the middle of Manhattan or Los Angeles. And then there is nuclear and wind power, both economically viable.
Quote: AZDuffmanSmart businessmen know when to look at statistics and when to use common sense, which may include anecdotal evidence.
And the time to use anecdotal evidence isn't now. Someone commuting over 25 miles each way will travel at least 250 miles a week, and likely more, for likely about 15-20k per year.
Common sense... my common sense tells me not to commute 100 miles to a side job, unless it pays enough that I wouldn't be bothered by vehicle pricing, so clearly it's different for everyone.
Quote: AZDuffmanDon't forget as well that batteries decline in storage capacity as they get older. In 5r years your range can be expected to fall, possibly a very great deal.
It's not official yet, but Tesla said they will guarantee 70% capacity, if it falls below that, it's replaced. They believe the battery should stay above 70% of its new capacity for the duration of their 8-year warranty. The batteries used are high-grade, designed for capacity retention, not laptop batteries as used in cheaper conversions.
Since they clearly don't want to replace the expensive pack for free, there has to be headroom, expected capacity is likely 75%-80%. That suggests a degradation rate of about 2.5%-3% per year, or down to 85%-90% in 5 years.
Quote: AZDuffmanIt doesn't. It takes 5-8 hours to get just more than half the range my gasoline car gets in 10 minutes to fill.
Your car has 600 mile range?
...I guess it's probably not a V8.
5-8 hours is for the basic built-in charger and regular sockets. High-rate chargers will provide 160 mile charge in 30 minutes and fill the battery in an hour.
If I'm not mistaken, the stats that P90 has been using to justify his conclusions are from an exotic 2 seat roadster (Telsa) that easily costs more than $100,000. This car is an expensive toy for people, not practical in the real world at all.
Quote: P90The impact is lower. Power plants are significantly more efficient than car engines, so they produce less CO2.
But you said yourself you don't believe in CO2; hopefully you don't dispute that poisons can be bad for your health, at least? And if so, all that should concern you is whether a vehicle contaminates where people live.
Even newer coal power plants have contaminant capture systems. As for older ones... at least they aren't in the middle of Manhattan or Los Angeles. And then there is nuclear and wind power, both economically viable.
Correct, CO2 is not a pollutant, it is plant food and it is given off by every breathing creature on the planet. Cars have emission controls just like power plants do. Nukes are somewhat viable, wind is NOT yet viable, if it was it would be priced the same as coal and need no subsidy. Anytime I have had wind as a power oprion the price is 15-20% higher and we are still subsidizing it.
Quote:And the time to use anecdotal evidence isn't now. Someone commuting over 25 miles each way will travel at least 250 miles a week, and likely more, for likely about 15-20k per year.
Common sense... my common sense tells me not to commute 100 miles to a side job, unless it pays enough that I wouldn't be bothered by vehicle pricing, so clearly it's different for everyone.
Not that it is anybody's business but the side job pays $65-150 per night, depending on game dealt, distance of the gig, and time at the gig. So I commute 100 miles I use 3-4 gallons of gasoline, or $10, which I can occasionally split with a co-worker. On an hourly basis I get $20-30 after I pay for the fuel. And I get the flexibility that it is just a few months per night and I can say "no" if I cannot do the job. All of this makes sense, far more than paying $10K more for an EV which will leave me stranded 30 or more miles from home.
Again, you are counting on "averages" to make your case that the range is good for most people and ignoring the varriance in daily travel that easily shows it will not be.
Quote:It's not official yet, but Tesla said they will guarantee 70% capacity, if it falls below that, it's replaced. They believe the battery should stay above 70% of its new capacity for the duration of their 8-year warranty. The batteries used are high-grade, designed for capacity retention, not laptop batteries as used in cheaper conversions.
Since they clearly don't want to replace the expensive pack for free, there has to be headroom, expected capacity is likely 75%-80%. That suggests a degradation rate of about 2.5%-3% per year, or down to 85%-90% in 5 years.
So you can expect your (claimed) 300 mile range to drop to 210 to 240 miles, and you can bet the time to charge will increase as time goes on. Then buy a new battery and dispose of the old one, that will be envrionmentally helpful.
Quote:Your car has 600 mile range?
...I guess it's probably not a V8.
300 or so mile range, I wish the tank held 2 more gallons. No V-8, small Hyundai. Does what I need it to do. My V-8 days are far behind me.
Quote: timberjimIf I'm not mistaken, the stats that P90 has been using to justify his conclusions are from an exotic 2 seat roadster (Telsa) that easily costs more than $100,000. This car is an expensive toy for people, not practical in the real world at all.
No, it's based on their new car, Model S: http://www.teslamotors.com/models/features
It's a luxury sedan with pricing starting at about $50,000. In terms of price, size, capabilities, interior, etc., Model S sits right against Mercedes E-class that also starts a bit over 50 grand, though it's positioned closer to sportier models like BMW 5-series and Jaguars. But has two child seats in the back for a total of 7, and an extra trunk in the front, that's some extra practicality.
Still a lot of focus on performance, moderate weight, very low center of gravity, high stiffness chassis, should give Maserati Quattroporte a beating. Hope Top Gear tests it out this season.
They built the roadster first to establish themselves as a luxury brand and work out the kinks on something meant as a second car, always intended to go into saloon, SUV and eventually compact markets later. The car is about to be launched a little later this year.
Quote: AZDuffmanNot that it is anybody's business but the side job pays $65-150 per night, depending on game dealt, distance of the gig, and time at the gig. So I commute 100 miles I use 3-4 gallons of gasoline, or $10, which I can occasionally split with a co-worker. ...
Again, you are counting on "averages" to make your case that the range is good for most people and ignoring the varriance in daily travel that easily shows it will not be.
I'm counting on the distances people travel. All even you do on a regular basis is 100 miles both ways, maybe 150.
And when you do travel more than 300 miles one way - do you always travel alone, leaving your family (if any) at home? The average household has 2 or 3 cars, not 1. Very obviously, for any observable future, at least 1 of them will be a gasoline or diesel car. You take that car for long trips and that's it.
For the times you do travel alone... so you are not on friendly enough terms with your neighbors to lend each other your cars - but are you at least on friendly enough terms with your significant other? If you both want to go somewhere far, you are most likely going together. If only one of you is going, he takes the gas or diesel and the other person takes the electric. I don't see a problem.
Quote: AZDuffmanSo you can expect your (claimed) 300 mile range to drop to 210 to 240 miles, and you can bet the time to charge will increase as time goes on. Then buy a new battery and dispose of the old one, that will be envrionmentally helpful.
Claimed and tested, or at least will be. It's not a startup, the car will be shipped soon.
I can expect it to drop to about 240 miles in 8 years, yes. Not 210, if it's under 210, they'll have to replace it. So? It's 8 years later - most people have already sold and replaced their car by then.
EV battery packs are recycled, not dumped. They're too valuable to dump.
Quote: P90
I'm counting on the distances people travel. All even you do on a regular basis is 100 miles both ways, maybe 150.
Lots of times I do 150 in a day. Multiple times a year more than 300.
Quote:And when you do travel more than 300 miles one way - do you always travel alone, leaving your family (if any) at home? The average household has 2 or 3 cars, not 1. Very obviously, for any observable future, at least 1 of them will be a gasoline or diesel car. You take that car for long trips and that's it.
For the times you do travel alone... so you are not on friendly enough terms with your neighbors to lend each other your cars - but are you at least on friendly enough terms with your significant other? If you both want to go somewhere far, you are most likely going together. If only one of you is going, he takes the gas or diesel and the other person takes the electric. I don't see a problem.
Yes, I usually travel alone, sometimes carpool if I am meeting some old college buddies and going in the same direction. Not married, no SO right now, either. Hard to find a woman who does not want kids and honestly happier on my own than in a relationship.
No, not on friendly enough terms to borrow from neighbors and I doubt 1 in 100 people would do that with neighbors. knock knock--"Hey, neighbor, can I put 300 miles on your car this weekend?" *SLAM* As to family, my extended family is always going a bunch of different places same as I am. Car sharing for me, like most people, is not viable.
Quote:I can expect it to drop to about 240 miles in 8 years, yes. Not 210, if it's under 210, they'll have to replace it. So? It's 8 years later - most people have already sold and replaced their car by then.
People replace by year 8? NOPE. Not even close. Average of a car in the USA is almost 50% more than that.
Sorry, but every argument you make on EVs involves giving up utility I alread have with my gasoline powered car. And nothing on the horizon seems to be imoproving on that situation.
Quote: AZDuffmanYes, I usually travel alone, sometimes carpool if I am meeting some old college buddies and going in the same direction. Not married, no SO right now, either. Hard to find a woman who does not want kids and honestly happier on my own than in a relationship.
Well, that also puts you in a minority. Most people have families by 40, and 2-3 cars per family. And these cars are pretty much always shared when needed.
Quote: AZDuffmanNo, not on friendly enough terms to borrow from neighbors and I doubt 1 in 100 people would do that with neighbors. knock knock--"Hey, neighbor, can I put 300 miles on your car this weekend?" *SLAM*
Replace "neighbor" with "friend". Though no reason one can't be both.
Yeah, I have to borrow a friend's vehicle or trade cars for a while quite often, never been a problem. Haven't ever been asked how many miles I'm going to do on theirs, or how many I've done.
Quote: AZDuffmanPeople replace by year 8? NOPE. Not even close. Average of a car in the USA is almost 50% more than that.
Yes... and no. Because it's the average. You see, most of these 10.8 year old cars were bought used. There are 16 million new private vehicles sold in US per year - and 41 million used. That's 3.5 transactions per car. People who have the money to buy new cars don't want to drive one until it falls to pieces.
Quote: P90Well, that also puts you in a minority. Most people have families by 40, and 2-3 cars per family. And these cars are pretty much always shared when needed.
Per the census about half have families. Still, why would a family pay $10,000 more for a car that does not do what the others can do? Makes no sense.
Quote:Replace "neighbor" with "friend". Though no reason one can't be both.
Uh, OK. "Hey, buddy, mind if I take your car on a short vacation for two days because I bought an EV that won't go 200 miles on a charge?" *SLAM*
Seems like the same results to me.
I can surely say no way I am loaning you my car because you bought some kind of toy that you can't use instead of a real car. I doubt many people will.
Quote: AZDuffmanPeople replace by year 8? NOPE. Not even close. Average of a car in the USA is almost 50% more than that.
Yes... and no. Because it's the average. You see, most of these 10.8 year old cars were bought used. There are 16 million new private vehicles sold in US per year - and 41 million used. That's 3.5 transactions per car. People who have the money to buy new cars don't want to drive one until it falls to pieces.
Some do, some don't. About half the people I know trade every few years either for business or because they are afraid of owning an "old" car. The other half, myself included, might buy new or used but run them until they are ready for the scrap heap to get maximum utility from them. It doesn't matter, though, because the EV will lose range over time while the gasoline car will not. The EV may very well need an expensive battery halfway thru life (don't expect lifetime warranties forever) which will affect resale value very negatively. So the EV has less chance of a long-term life, increasing its cost even more.
Quote:Replace "neighbor" with "friend". Though no reason one can't be both.
Uh, OK. "Hey, buddy, mind if I take your car on a short vacation for two days because I bought an EV that won't go 200 miles on a charge?" *SLAM*
Seems like the same results to me.
I can surely say no way I am loaning you my car because you bought some kind of toy that you can't use instead of a real car. I doubt many people will.
Quote:People replace by year 8? NOPE. Not even close. Average of a car in the USA is almost 50% more than that.
Yes... and no. Because it's the average. You see, most of these 10.8 year old cars were bought used. There are 16 million new private vehicles sold in US per year - and 41 million used. That's 3.5 transactions per car. People who have the money to buy new cars don't want to drive one until it falls to pieces.
Some do, some don't. About half the people I know trade every few years either for business or because they are afraid of owning an "old" car. The other half, myself included, might buy new or used but run them until they are ready for the scrap heap to get maximum utility from them. It doesn't matter, though, because the EV will lose range over time while the gasoline car will not. The EV may very well need an expensive battery halfway thru life (don't expect lifetime warranties forever) which will affect resale value very negatively. So the EV has less chance of a long-term life, increasing its cost even more.
Then why is home heating oil so expensive?Quote: DocI think a fair portion of the price at the pump is in highway construction/repair taxes, since it is assumed that the vehicles that require the roads and wear them out will be paying for them through fuel purchases.
Quote: pacomartinThen why is home heating oil so expensive?
Heating oil is similar to diesel and jet fuel. You can't put it into a jet, but you can put jet fuel into a diesel. Heating oil is lower cost and thus proably profit, so a spot shortage in one drives the price of the other higher. Just what I have seen in my experience, anyways.
Quote: P90No, it's based on their new car, Model S: http://www.teslamotors.com/models/features
It's a luxury sedan with pricing starting at about $50,000. In terms of price, size, capabilities, interior, etc., Model S sits right against Mercedes E-class that also starts a bit over 50 grand, though it's positioned closer to sportier models like BMW 5-series and Jaguars. But has two child seats in the back for a total of 7, and an extra trunk in the front, that's some extra practicality.
Still a lot of focus on performance, moderate weight, very low center of gravity, high stiffness chassis, should give Maserati Quattroporte a beating. Hope Top Gear tests it out this season.
They built the roadster first to establish themselves as a luxury brand and work out the kinks on something meant as a second car, always intended to go into saloon, SUV and eventually compact markets later. The car is about to be launched a little later this year
.
The model with the 300 mile battery starts at $77,500 and expected to sell for at least $85,000 according to a quick search. Did I miss something? That is quite a bit more than the $50,000 figure stated above. WIKI says the cheapest, bare bones model with the weakest battery pack will start at $57,500.
Quote: AZDuffmanHeating oil is similar to diesel and jet fuel. You can't put it into a jet, but you can put jet fuel into a diesel. Heating oil is lower cost and thus proably profit, so a spot shortage in one drives the price of the other higher. Just what I have seen in my experience, anyways.
But it isn't taxes. Heating oil (HHO) is roughly 4 billion gallons per year, which is insignificant compared to vehicular use. But HHO costs about the same as gasoline. While it has long been significantly cheaper to heat a home with natural gas, not all homes have gas lines. But now with electricity prices coming down, and the price of HHO remaining high, the energy equivalent in electricity is the same price as HHO.
Quote: pacomartinThen why is home heating oil so expensive?
The cost of heating oil has to pay for the home delivery you don't pick it up at the pump yourself.
Quote: timberjimThe model with the 300 mile battery starts at $77,500 and expected to sell for at least $85,000 according to a quick search. Did I miss something?
There's a $7,500 tax credit with purchase, bringing it down to $69,900. Or $49,900 for the base model.
Quote: AZDuffmanPer the census about half have families. Still, why would a family pay $10,000 more for a car that does not do what the others can do? Makes no sense.
It costs approximately the same. $50k for base Tesla vs $50k for E-350 sedan or $57k for E-350 wagon (closer to Model S in capacity), then $60k for either mid-level Tesla or E-550 sedan, finally $85k for high-performance Tesla versus $89k for E63 AMG or $91k for AMG Wagon. That's neck to neck. Options add to either car, LSD is an option on Mercs and you want it, you also want the transparent roof on Tesla.
Quote: AZDuffmanUh, OK. "Hey, buddy, mind if I take your car on a short vacation for two days because I bought an EV that won't go 200 miles on a charge?"
Works pretty well when I offer mine, to friends that I know to be interested. Though it isn't electric, just lacks a reasonable trunk.
Quote: AZDuffmanSome do, some don't. About half the people I know trade every few years either for business or because they are afraid of owning an "old" car. The other half, myself included, might buy new or used but run them until they are ready for the scrap heap to get maximum utility from them.
Well, the statistics show that most cars change hands a lot. It's really not rational in my view to run a new car until it dies. If you need new, you'll need new four years from now. If you'll be OK with older in four years, you should be OK with older now.
Quote: AZDuffmanIt doesn't matter, though, because the EV will lose range over time while the gasoline car will not.
Of course it will. Engines get less efficient (and less powerful) as they age. To a lesser extent than batteries, but still.
Quote: AZDuffmanThe EV may very well need an expensive battery halfway thru life (don't expect lifetime warranties forever) which will affect resale value very negatively.
You wish... try finding a second-hand EV, if it wasn't junk in the first place, for any reasonable price. Know what a used Tesla Roadster costs? $105,000. Things will change as supply increases, but so far, no hope for picking up a second-hand EV for anything reasonable.
Quote: pacomartinBut it isn't taxes. Heating oil (HHO) is roughly 4 billion gallons per year, which is insignificant compared to vehicular use. But HHO costs about the same as gasoline. While it has long been significantly cheaper to heat a home with natural gas, not all homes have gas lines. But now with electricity prices coming down, and the price of HHO remaining high, the energy equivalent in electricity is the same price as HHO.
Again, this is IIRC, but I believe heating oil is made seasonally. July to August or so, then they make a minimal amount to fill in need. So if there is a mild winter like this year nobody orders much and the channel is stuffed. You might get a discount, but if your tank is full it is full. OTOH, if you get a cold winter, people suck the tanks dry and the price skyrockets as refineries can't switch their mixture on a dime, and if they can they still need to fill the channel.
My experience is that HHO is big regionally, in the New England States, and in the country here in PA at least. Places that it is expensive to run a gas line to.
I prefer natural gas to heat, always have even before I got into the industry.
Quote: AZDuffmans that HHO is big regionally, in the New England States, and in the country here in PA at least. Places that it is expensive to run a gas line to.
About 90% of the HHO consumed is consumed in 12 states, and only NE states have over 1/3 of their home heating energy from fuel oil. I'm in an old rural house in PA, and they are never going to run gas lines to here. But now that I see that electricity and fuel oil are the same cost per BTU, it seems to make sense to rip out the boiler and the radiators and put in baseboard. I don't think an 80 year old home can be retrofit with a heat pump. I have seen articles about retrofitting an old house with radiant heat, but it seems very difficult.
Quote: pacomartinAbout 90% of the HHO consumed is consumed in 12 states, and only NE states have over 1/3 of their home heating energy from fuel oil. I'm in an old rural house in PA, and they are never going to run gas lines to here. But now that I see that electricity and fuel oil are the same cost per BTU, it seems to make sense to rip out the boiler and the radiators and put in baseboard. I don't think an 80 year old home can be retrofit with a heat pump. I have seen articles about retrofitting an old house with radiant heat, but it seems very difficult.
Consider CNG or propane. Way back when I had a sales territory in Fayette County lots of houses used it. Cleaner than HHO for sure, and not as many spot shortages if you get a cold snap as propane does not compete with diesel and jet fuel.
Quote: P90There's a $7,500 tax credit with purchase, bringing it down to $69,900. Or $49,900 for the base model.
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We need to just agree to disagree.
Just keep us updated on when these cars have been delivered and at what price. The company says their first production run of 1000 vehicles will be the costliest model so the base price is meaningless until it is available. Let me know when the battery swap out stations are set up also. Also let us know when the purchasers of this high end luxury vehicle buy it without taking my tax dollars to subsidize their lifestyle.
Quote: timberjimJust keep us updated on when these cars have been delivered and at what price.
All deliveries start this year. Customers who made a pre-order will receive them at the price Tesla's website states. Customers who didn't pre-order... who is to blame?
Quote: timberjimAlso let us know when the purchasers of this high end luxury vehicle buy it without taking my tax dollars to subsidize their lifestyle.
It's their tax dollars actually.
I haven't heard you complaining about the government offering a tax cut for Hummer H2 buyers. Know how much that is? Over $17,000 on the average.
If a tax incentive for electric vehicles, a clean and prospective technology that reduces dependency on foreign oil, pisses you off, but subsidizing overweight bricks that drive gas prices up for everyone doesn't, you might have some priorities mixed up.
Quote: P90All deliveries start this year. Customers who made a pre-order will receive them at the price Tesla's website states. Customers who didn't pre-order... who is to blame?
It's their tax dollars actually.
I haven't heard you complaining about the government offering a tax cut for Hummer H2 buyers. Know how much that is? Over $17,000 on the average.
If a tax incentive for electric vehicles, a clean and prospective technology that reduces dependency on foreign oil, pisses you off, but subsidizing overweight bricks that drive gas prices up for everyone doesn't, you might have some priorities mixed up.
It is actually all of our tax dollars.
Start another thread about tax cuts for other vehicles if that is what you want to talk about.
Any government waste upsets me. My priorities are not "mixed up". I have not given any support whatsoever to other kinds of tax breaks, yet you choose to put words in my mouth to try and lend support to your position. I have kept my comments from getting personal, since you cannot, I will not waste any more time here.
Quote: timberjimAny government waste upsets me. My priorities are not "mixed up". I have not given any support whatsoever to other kinds of tax breaks, yet you choose to put words in my mouth to try and lend support to your position.
No, I haven't put words in your mouth. If you saw tax breaks for EV as a problem and breaks for SUV as not, that would be pretty crazy. If you disapprove of both, then let's put the blame where it lies, with the government, and its general overtaxation followed by overspending.
You complained about how EVs are taking your tax dollars - but they aren't, the government is, EVs just happen to catch some of that rainfall. Alongside a lot of other things including even SUV. Of course the government was sure just about to spend them on something useful... doesn't it always.
As for the market viability of Teslas, it's minimally affected by this tax cut, since it's less than 15% of their price. The $7,500 cut is the same for all EV, and has the most effect on lower-cost EV like most of these. Model S is going to sell out quick (Signature has sold out already) even without these cuts.
Quote: P90No, I haven't put words in your mouth. If you saw tax breaks for EV as a problem and breaks for SUV as not, that would be pretty crazy. If you disapprove of both, then let's put the blame where it lies, with the government, and its general overtaxation followed by overspending.
There is not a refundable tax credit for buying a SUV. Please do not distort the ability to expense a vehicle used for business use with an outright rebate for an EV, which could still get the same depriciation as the SUV.
But well worth it . i have a friend who did his house in Maryland. I had baseboard heaters in a row house in Baltimore. Cozy and comfy. With home building in it's current state, you should be able to find a reputable contractor to install either.
Quote: AZDuffmanThere is not a refundable tax credit for buying a SUV. Please do not distort the ability to expense a vehicle used for business use with an outright rebate for an EV, which could still get the same depriciation as the SUV.
The intention was to expense light pickup trucks for business use.
But thanks to Hummer's excess weight and general SUV size bloat, a large number of vehicles now fall under the tax exemption that are bought strictly for personal use or just conspicuous consumption. You just need any business to write it off. But you don't get a tax break for buying a normal car for exact same purposes.
And it's not like the law hasn't been revised - it has been revised... only to keep conditions the same, but increase maximum exemption size.
