beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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MrCasinoGames
July 5th, 2019 at 2:36:38 PM permalink
So, I wanted a separate thread to discuss math and strategy for Jeopardy bets. I'd appreciate any advice people care to offer specific to (especially) different situations when finding the Daily Double (DD) in the first round, either or both in the second, and betting strategy from various positions in Final Jeopardy (FJ).

One thing that sometimes doesn't get enough consideration (imo) in my research so far, is that betting any of the DD's, YOU ARE THE ONLY ONE WHO CAN WIN OR LOSE. Nobody else can buzz in on your wrong answer, and you're not head-to-head on the same question, as you are in FJ.

It also matters whether you're in 1st, 2nd, or 3rd at each point, and by how much.

And it matters how high in the column a DD is, as well as the category, as to gauging your chances of answering correctly.

I have some ideas on how I want to do this, and find the best opportunities, but there are so many very smart people on here, I'd like to hear your thoughts before I get set in my plan. Thanks in advance!

My goal, btw, is (ideally) to be a 5 day + champion and return for the ToC. As opposed to setting a 1 day record or something. So as long as I win by $1, I return. Yeas, I know my chances of doing this are less than 1.0, but it seems like a place to try and be. One game at a time, though.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Gialmere
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beachbumbabsMrCasinoGames
July 5th, 2019 at 3:20:36 PM permalink
This is peripheral to what you're asking but I found this Vulture article on how the show's writers come up with questions to be interesting. #7 discusses Final Jeopardy and Daily Doubles.
Have you tried 22 tonight? I said 22.
gameshowfan
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July 5th, 2019 at 4:10:32 PM permalink
Go here: https://thejeopardyfan.com/final-jeopardy-betting
Stacks of study material here: http://www.j-archive.com/

Good luck!
Wizard
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MrCasinoGamesbeachbumbabs
July 5th, 2019 at 4:27:18 PM permalink
It's easy to say that James Holzhauer (sp?) and Emma are good examples of how to play the Daily Doubles. However, here is how I would put it.

It's key to remember that your chances of getting the question right are probably 80% to 90%. Thus, getting even money is a great bet. A very good chance to double your bankroll. Notice how James went all in with the Jeopardy round Daily Double and played the other two aggressively as well, except if he was a runaway winner, in which case he didn't bet too much to risk losing the lock or near lock.

That said, for the Jeopardy round I would go all in, with almost no exceptions. The only exception might be if it were late in the round and the game was nearly a shutout in your favor.

In Double Jeopardy, if you're in second or third place, go all in.

The big question should be at what point should you hold back in the lead in Double Jeopardy. We saw Holzhauer bet big if he found the first DD early in Double Jeopardy, even with a commanding lead. I assume his strategy was that he would probably lock in a win if correct and even if wrong, had time to catch up.

How about the second DD in the Double Jeopardy round if you're in the lead. If you're somewhere between 1x and 2x the second place player, you should probably bet enough to get over 2x, to hopefully lock in winning Final Jeopardy. This may be a huge wager, putting the game on the line, but I'd do it. If you can, I'd bet enough to perhaps be $5,000 or so above 2x, to have a buffer if second place does well after the DD. If you're over 2x second place, do not risk falling below 2x with a wrong answer.

Finally, when in doubt, put it out.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
FleaStiff
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July 5th, 2019 at 6:27:04 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs


My goal, btw, is (ideally) to be a 5 day + champion . . . .

I've not watched tv in quite a while but I will surely resume the practice if anyone from WoV is on the show. Do you know yet which date your show will start airing?
beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
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July 5th, 2019 at 10:35:19 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

I've not watched tv in quite a while but I will surely resume the practice if anyone from WoV is on the show. Do you know yet which date your show will start airing?



Not exactly. I will first be on sometime the week of Sept 16-20. With any luck, on more than one night.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
beachbumbabs
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July 5th, 2019 at 10:41:35 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

It's easy to say that James Holzhauer (sp?) and Emma are good examples of how to play the Daily Doubles. However, here is how I would put it.

It's key to remember that your chances of getting the question right are probably 80% to 90%. Thus, getting even money is a great bet. A very good chance to double your bankroll. Notice how James went all in with the Jeopardy round Daily Double and played the other two aggressively as well, except if he was a runaway winner, in which case he didn't bet too much to risk losing the lock or near lock.

That said, for the Jeopardy round I would go all in, with almost no exceptions. The only exception might be if it were late in the round and the game was nearly a shutout in your favor.

In Double Jeopardy, if you're in second or third place, go all in.

The big question should be at what point should you hold back in the lead in Double Jeopardy. We saw Holzhauer bet big if he found the first DD early in Double Jeopardy, even with a commanding lead. I assume his strategy was that he would probably lock in a win if correct and even if wrong, had time to catch up.

How about the second DD in the Double Jeopardy round if you're in the lead. If you're somewhere between 1x and 2x the second place player, you should probably bet enough to get over 2x, to hopefully lock in winning Final Jeopardy. This may be a huge wager, putting the game on the line, but I'd do it. If you can, I'd bet enough to perhaps be $5,000 or so above 2x, to have a buffer if second place does well after the DD. If you're over 2x second place, do not risk falling below 2x with a wrong answer.

Finally, when in doubt, put it out.



Thanks, especially with the advice about it being worth it to go for a lockout. I'm watching these folks who have sole control of a DD bet (imo) way too small, then they're still catchable in Final, when everyone can gain, and lots of times it's the hardest question of the night.

I think you have to go for it when the others can do nothing to profit off you, unless you're already running away with it, or its the bottom clue in a category you suck in. Either situation, you might be best off spiking the clue, since you've already taken the chance of using it away from your opponent.

It's the middle ground, where someone bets enough to get "close" to the lead but is reserving a meaningless amount, I don't get. Like they have 8k, bet 3 k, the lead has 14k. That person is playing for 2nd. I think I would have to go all in.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
rxwine
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beachbumbabs
July 5th, 2019 at 11:49:11 PM permalink
What are you going to do if on your opening game the 1st day you keep getting shut out by another player faster on the buzzer several times over?

You have to be mentally be prepared, not to be frustrated, remember to calm yourself, relax, concentrate and regroup as quickly as possible. Another player dominating out of the gate will automatically create some intimidation and could make someone stumble enough to make a critical difference in the outcome.

Anyway, I suggest thinking about several scenarios, you may encounter which may affect your game play and prepare a strategy. Just like a poker player can play on someone's emotional issue, or going on tilt, that will affect your game. If you know by other types of game play you might be susceptible to certain weaknesses, you want to avoid.

Tell anyone you know to save any upsetting news to the day after if possible.
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rxwine
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beachbumbabs
July 6th, 2019 at 12:00:37 AM permalink
Also, I know, I wouldn't be able to sleep well the night before. If you're like that, it's more important to just assume that's normal and not about worry about it. Do the best you can.

If you consume caffeine normally, than I would not avoid it, but stick to 1 cup of coffee that day, no more, before you play. I wouldn't abstain completely.
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
beachbumbabs
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TomG
July 6th, 2019 at 8:24:22 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

What are you going to do if on your opening game the 1st day you keep getting shut out by another player faster on the buzzer several times over?

You have to be mentally be prepared, not to be frustrated, remember to calm yourself, relax, concentrate and regroup as quickly as possible. Another player dominating out of the gate will automatically create some intimidation and could make someone stumble enough to make a critical difference in the outcome.

Anyway, I suggest thinking about several scenarios, you may encounter which may affect your game play and prepare a strategy. Just like a poker player can play on someone's emotional issue, or going on tilt, that will affect your game. If you know by other types of game play you might be susceptible to certain weaknesses, you want to avoid.

Tell anyone you know to save any upsetting news to the day after if possible.



Yeah, I think it's important to not get frustrated with buzzer lockout and keep compounding it. The show coordinators told us we should keep buzzing in until someone gets called on to answer. I'm not sure that's entirely wise on a detailed level. But there does seem to be a split second (according to some stories) on most questions where you can buzz in before you see the light, so I think relaxed but alert is the way to go.

It appears to me that more often than not, 2 or all 3 people know the answer, or are at least trying to buzz, so I'm going to try and find that timing as early as I can. Let them get frustrated.

There's also a few seconds after you start ringing to still be thinking about each answer - not sure whether it's wise to buzz without having it exactly formed in your head, and plan on using that time, but I think it could work in your favor. It sure seemed to be a skill Ken Jennings mastered.

I was saying in the other thread that there are levels of brain occupancy. You get the mechanics down, it's easier to concentrate on finding the answer because your brain isn't busy with . So I'm playing old Jeopardy rounds with my Jeopardy pen/buzzer, making the mechanics more automatic so buzzer operation / anxiety takes up less of my brain time. I had exceptional reflexes when I was young - was very good at pinball and ping pong, for example. I guess we'll find out if I've retained any of that skill.

Yikes. Between stage fright, buzzer anxiety, and just not wanting to look like an idiot in front of millions, this is a complicated undertaking. I think confidence and a relaxed frame of mind (so i can access my internal database) are probably the most important components to have on game day. So my prep is trying to reach those goals, rather than constant fact-cramming, though I'm also doing various lookups and brain drills. But at this point, my knowledge base is 90% already either there or not, so might as well enjoy the experience - I've already won, it's just a question of how much.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.

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