Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 19th, 2013 at 2:35:15 PM permalink
Awards will be presented on Sunday. What are your predictions?

Best Picture:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty


Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Bradley Cooper
Daniel Day-Lewis
Hugh Jackman
Joaquin Phoenix
Denzel Washington


Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Jessica Chastain
Jennifer Lawrence
Emmanuelle Riva
Quvenzhané Wallis
Naomi Watts


Best Director:
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (Ang Lee)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
EvenBob
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February 19th, 2013 at 2:53:08 PM permalink
I vote for the The Godfather every year, can't miss..
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Nareed
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February 19th, 2013 at 3:05:24 PM permalink
I'm still waiting for the Academy to admit they effed up and award Citizen kane a best picture Oscar.

Well, I'm not actually waiting. I do other things int he meantime.
Donald Trump is a fucking criminal
sodawater
sodawater
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February 19th, 2013 at 3:58:42 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Awards will be presented on Sunday. What are your predictions?



Best Picture:
Amour
Argo
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Django Unchained
Les Misérables
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
Zero Dark Thirty


Best Actor in a Leading Role:
Bradley Cooper
Daniel Day-Lewis
Hugh Jackman
Joaquin Phoenix
Denzel Washington


Best Actress in a Leading Role:
Jessica Chastain
Jennifer Lawrence
Emmanuelle Riva
Quvenzhané Wallis
Naomi Watts


Best Director:
Amour (Michael Haneke)
Beasts of the Southern Wild (Benh Zeitlin)
Life of Pi (Ang Lee)
Silver Linings Playbook (David O. Russell)
Lincoln (Steven Spielberg)


Best Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin Argo
Robert De Niro Silver Linings Playbook
Philip Seymour Hoffman The Master
Tommy Lee Jones Lincoln
Christoph Waltz Django Unchained in the upset!

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams The Master
Sally Field Lincoln
Anne Hathaway Les Misérables -- lock of the century!
Helen Hunt The Sessions
Jacki Weaver Silver Linings Playbook
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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February 19th, 2013 at 4:21:27 PM permalink
Did anyone place bets this year? The Wiz made some money last year laying the favorites. I would bet on Bovada again, if they didn't stop accepting wagers from my state.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
sodawater
sodawater
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February 19th, 2013 at 4:34:25 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Did anyone place bets this year? The Wiz made some money last year laying the favorites. I would bet on Bovada again, if they didn't stop accepting wagers from my state.



I've got a bet on my girl J-Lawr. Got it at -190 and I am thrilled with that price.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 19th, 2013 at 5:15:02 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

I've got a bet on my girl J-Lawr. Got it at -190 and I am thrilled with that price.



Good luck! What was the line on the Anne Hathaway "lock"?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 19th, 2013 at 5:20:52 PM permalink
Quote: sodawater

Best Picture:

Argo



I don't know what the lines are, but I think Les Mis or Lincoln were stronger films. However, my tastes and the Academy's have been wildly different in the past. Since Les Mis was hamstrung by Russell Crowe's singing, I am choosing Lincoln for the win.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Nostron
Nostron
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February 19th, 2013 at 6:04:32 PM permalink
I will be in Vegas this weekend - you can bet on this at any sportsbook??
sodawater
sodawater
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February 19th, 2013 at 6:09:56 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Good luck! What was the line on the Anne Hathaway "lock"?



-5000 is the best price i can find for her.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 19th, 2013 at 7:00:15 PM permalink
Quote: Nostron

I will be in Vegas this weekend - you can bet on this at any sportsbook??


I don't think any book in Vegas will carry this non-sporting event. The ballots have been counted already so there are several individuals who have insider knowledge, and potentially could make a bit of money if action were available.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Nostron
Nostron
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February 19th, 2013 at 7:11:09 PM permalink
Thanks - thats sort of what I thought - but you can make an online bet.

Of the ones I think will win - Jennifer Lawrence has the lowest juice at 240 - thats still too much.
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 19th, 2013 at 7:20:44 PM permalink
Here are the lines on the big favorites at Bovada. It looks like Pinnacle isn't doing the Oscars this year.

Best Picture = Argo -700
Best Director = Steven Spielberg -400
Best Actor = Daniel Day-Lewis -5000
Best Supporting Actress = Anne Hathaway -5000
Best Foreign Film = Amour -5000
Best Documentary Feature = Searching for Sugar Man -1500
Best Original Song = Skyfall -1000
Best Visual Effects = Life of Pi -2000
Best Costume Design = Anna Karenina -400
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 20th, 2013 at 10:44:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are the lines on the big favorites at Bovada. It looks like Pinnacle isn't doing the Oscars this year.

Best Picture = Argo -700
Best Director = Steven Spielberg -400
Best Actor = Daniel Day-Lewis -5000
Best Supporting Actress = Anne Hathaway -5000
Best Foreign Film = Amour -5000
Best Documentary Feature = Searching for Sugar Man -1500
Best Original Song = Skyfall -1000
Best Visual Effects = Life of Pi -2000
Best Costume Design = Anna Karenina -400



I am surprised at Argo's line. It's a good movie, but I don't think the Academy would pick it as the best of the bunch.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 20th, 2013 at 10:52:14 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I am surprised at Argo's line. It's a good movie, but I don't think the Academy would pick it as the best of the bunch.



Didn't they pick The Hurt Locker for Best Picture? I never saw Argo, so can't criticize. The only two movies up for Bets Picture I've seen this year are Life of Pi and Django Unchained.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 20th, 2013 at 11:14:17 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Didn't they pick The Hurt Locker for Best Picture? I never saw Argo, so can't criticize. The only two movies up for Bets Picture I've seen this year are Life of Pi and Django Unchained.



Hurt Locker won 6 Oscars in 2010. I thought it was a good movie. Did you see it? The other nominees that year were:

A Serious Man: Joel Coen, Ethan Coen
An Education: Finola Dwyer, Amanda Posey
Avatar: James Cameron, Jon Landau
District 9: Peter Jackson, Carolynne Cunningham
Inglourious Basterds: Lawrence Bender
Precious: Lee Daniels, Sarah Siegel-Magness, Gary Magness
The Blind Side: Gil Netter, Andrew A. Kosove, Broderick Johnson
Up: Jonas Rivera
Up in the Air: Daniel Dubiecki, Ivan Reitman, Jason Reitman

Due to the large field, I think Avatar got the short end of it that year. Voting for the Best Picture is open to all Academy members. Historically, this has resulted in wins for the films with the most Academy members involved in them.

I saw Argo, Lincoln, Les Mis and Silver Linings Playbook. The only one that I still want to see is Zero Dark Thirty.
Entertainment Weekly has an interesting theory: The actors make up the biggest voting bloc in the Academy, and Silver Linings Playbook got the most acting nominations, therefore it has the broadest appeal. Argo is only winning recently because Ben Affleck was snubbed as Best Director by the Academy, and they are trying to make it up with the public.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 25th, 2013 at 8:49:57 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Here are the lines on the big favorites at Bovada. It looks like Pinnacle isn't doing the Oscars this year.

Best Picture = Argo -700
Best Director = Steven Spielberg -400
Best Actor = Daniel Day-Lewis -5000
Best Supporting Actress = Anne Hathaway -5000
Best Foreign Film = Amour -5000
Best Documentary Feature = Searching for Sugar Man -1500
Best Original Song = Skyfall -1000
Best Visual Effects = Life of Pi -2000
Best Costume Design = Anna Karenina -400



The only big upset this year was for best director. Despite -400 odds on Spielberg, the winner was Ang Lee for Life of Pi. I might note that the odds dropped on Spielberg to -255 on 5 Dimes the day of the awards.

If you had bet one unit on all the above bets you would have lost -0.33 units, out of 9 units bet, for a return of -3.7%.

If you had bet enough to win one unit on each bet you would have won 4 units and bet 210, for a profit of 1.9%.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
1arrowheaddr
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February 25th, 2013 at 8:54:51 AM permalink
How early in the process do you like to bet? I saw Day-Lewis for -700 and Hathaway -1000 the day the nominations came out. Is it worth the risk to bet early or is it best to see who wins at the other awards ceremonies and accept significantly reduced odds the day of the event?
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
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February 25th, 2013 at 8:58:19 AM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizard
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Wizard
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February 25th, 2013 at 9:08:58 AM permalink
Quote: 1arrowheaddr

How early in the process do you like to bet?



I recommend betting late. In the two big upsets, the one this year and Crash for best picture in 2005, the odds dropped on the favorite. So betting late you would have lost less, or perhaps not at all. I don't recommend betting anything unless you're laying 4 to 1 or more. Maybe I should up that to 5 to 1.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
LonesomeGambler
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February 25th, 2013 at 11:15:42 AM permalink
A month ago, Lincoln was the favorite for best picture, at around -300, if I recall correctly. However, you could easily find Daniel Day Lewis for -300 and -500 all over the place, and -1000 was a cinch for Anne Hathaway. The only reason I mention it is because, while I agree with the Wiz about betting late in many cases (look at the steam Argo picked up in just the last few weeks), some bets are best placed early. Hathaway was as much of a lock in that field at -1000 as she was at -5000.
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