roumin
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May 19th, 2022 at 3:34:00 PM permalink
Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
ChumpChange
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May 19th, 2022 at 3:42:00 PM permalink
I thought laying the 9 on the come-out only was a good idea, until I lost 7 times in a row.
unJon
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May 19th, 2022 at 4:04:15 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post



Cover 34 numbers on a roulette wheel.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Venthus
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May 19th, 2022 at 4:04:33 PM permalink
A few years back, there was a machine at The D that advertised itself to be a winner on every spin. Ran like 50$ at minbet for half an hour and not a single one was a net positive.

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
roumin
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May 19th, 2022 at 4:18:09 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post



Cover 34 numbers on a roulette wheel.
link to original post



true - thanks
roumin
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May 19th, 2022 at 4:24:39 PM permalink
Quote: Venthus

A few years back, there was a machine at The D that advertised itself to be a winner on every spin. Ran like 50$ at minbet for half an hour and not a single one was a net positive.

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
link to original post



never heard of crapless craps
ThatDonGuy
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May 19th, 2022 at 5:02:17 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.



Cover 34 numbers on a roulette wheel.
link to original post


Assuming you are restricting this to bets where you make money if you win, you can cover 35 numbers and still make money (if one of them hits, you gain 35 on the winning number, and lose 34 on the others, so you gain 1 overall), so covering 35 has a higher probability of winning.

But there's a question: besides craps, and the 5% commission on betting the banker in baccarat, what other table games have a single bet that pays less than even money on them?
Venthus
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May 19th, 2022 at 5:25:31 PM permalink
Quote: roumin


never heard of crapless craps
link to original post


An info sheet from what appears to be a casino here: https://casino.harringtonraceway.com/sites/default/files/pdf/Crapless%20Craps.pdf

(A quick look around, not all places may allow laying 2/3/11/12.)
Quote: ThatDonGuy

But there's a question: besides craps, and the 5% commission on betting the banker in baccarat, what other table games have a single bet that pays less than even money on them?
link to original post


I'm pretty sure there's at least one carnie game that paid 1:2 on a DNQ.

How about an imprisoned bet on euro roulette? That's functionally a 'Lose half'/'Win back'
AxelWolf
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May 19th, 2022 at 5:38:20 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post

It's best you explain what your goal is and what you are trying to achieve. There are all kinds of situations and games that can accomplish certain things. There are games where it's all but certain you would bet and get a payback and I'm not talking about offsets.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on May 19, 2022
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TinMan
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May 19th, 2022 at 6:30:18 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post



I don't think you can find this in Vegas, but the Sheh-Sam-Hong bet in Fan Tan pays 19 to 60. Your odds of winning a single bet are 75%--i.e., greater than the odds of winning a lay 4 or 10 at craps.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/fan-tan/
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.
Ace2
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May 20th, 2022 at 11:40:20 AM permalink
Quote: Venthus

A few years back, there was a machine at The D that advertised itself to be a winner on every spin. Ran like 50$ at minbet for half an hour and not a single one was a net positive

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
link to original post

As the OP is looking for the single bet with highest probability of winning, I doubt he'll find anything better than laying the 2 or 12. You have an 85.7% chance of winning. What's more, assuming the commission is collected on a win only and you bet $175, the house edge is only 57 basis points. Very low standard deviation of 0.406 if that's a priority.

Has anyone confirmed that the commission is charged on win only for buying/laying all numbers in crapless?
It’s all about making that GTA
unJon
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May 20th, 2022 at 11:46:49 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: Venthus

A few years back, there was a machine at The D that advertised itself to be a winner on every spin. Ran like 50$ at minbet for half an hour and not a single one was a net positive

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
link to original post

As the OP is looking for the single bet with highest probability of winning, I doubt he'll find anything better than laying the 2 or 12. You have an 85.7% chance of winning. What's more, assuming the commission is collected on a win only and you bet $175, the house edge is only 57 basis points. Very low standard deviation of 0.406 if that's a priority.

Has anyone confirmed that the commission is charged on win only for buying/laying all numbers in crapless?
link to original post



Charged on win for buying extreme outside at mgm strip casinos. I’ve not tried to lay.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Ace2
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May 20th, 2022 at 12:02:40 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Ace2

Quote: Venthus

A few years back, there was a machine at The D that advertised itself to be a winner on every spin. Ran like 50$ at minbet for half an hour and not a single one was a net positive

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
link to original post

As the OP is looking for the single bet with highest probability of winning, I doubt he'll find anything better than laying the 2 or 12. You have an 85.7% chance of winning. What's more, assuming the commission is collected on a win only and you bet $175, the house edge is only 57 basis points. Very low standard deviation of 0.406 if that's a priority.

Has anyone confirmed that the commission is charged on win only for buying/laying all numbers in crapless?
link to original post



Charged on win for buying extreme outside at mgm strip casinos. I’ve not tried to lay.
link to original post

Previously I would never play crapless craps, but I'll make some buy bets on the 2 and 12 next time I go to Vegas.

However I would not lay 6 to 1. I don't like laying more than 2 to 1 (DP odds on 4/10) on anything.
It’s all about making that GTA
lilredrooster
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May 20th, 2022 at 2:28:29 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post




not the very highest but pretty high

at craps - after the point is made - place $100 on the 5, 6, and 8

and $50 on the field - you can do any amount but the field bet should be half the amount of the point bets

you will win $50 or more than $50_________ 5 out 6 times

you will only lose when a 7 comes - of course you will lose much more than on any one win



the house edge on the field bet is comparatively high - but this is about having a high probability of winning

of course, I'm not claiming it's a winning system


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
camapl
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May 20th, 2022 at 3:16:34 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post



Depends on how you define a “win”. If it must be a push or better, then I can’t think of anything with a higher win probability than the craps or crapless examples already offered above.

If, however, any nonzero payout of money counts, then Venthus’ example of the machine at the D would have a 100% win probability (not to be confused with overall return!). It seems to me that I have seen live keno schedules that pay on every possible outcome. Of course, the most probable outcomes pay less than 1:1, and the return is going to be as atrocious as all other live keno games.

Perhaps you could look at AxelWolf’s suggestion to give us some direction… “Help us help you!”
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
ThatDonGuy
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May 20th, 2022 at 3:20:53 PM permalink
Quote: camapl

If, however, any nonzero payout of money counts, then Venthus’ example of the machine at the D would have a 100% win probability (not to be confused with overall return!).


If breaking even counts, I know a machine that has not only a 100% "win probability" but a 100% return. It's usually called something like Bill Breaker...
camapl
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May 20th, 2022 at 3:35:40 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: camapl

If, however, any nonzero payout of money counts, then Venthus’ example of the machine at the D would have a 100% win probability (not to be confused with overall return!).


If breaking even counts, I know a machine that has not only a 100% "win probability" but a 100% return. It's usually called something like Bill Breaker...
link to original post



Awesome! I’ve made a similar joke in the casinos… “I’ve finally found a machine with a 100% payback! I never lose! Now, if I could only figure out how to get slot points…”
Expectation is the root of all heartache.
AlanMendelson
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May 20th, 2022 at 4:01:03 PM permalink
Quote: Venthus

A few years back, there was a machine at The D that advertised itself to be a winner on every spin. Ran like 50$ at minbet for half an hour and not a single one was a net positive.

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
link to original post



Unfortunately you cant make lay bets on crapless craps unless the rules changed.

I think DP flat bet is the bet the poster wants.
Ace2
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May 20th, 2022 at 4:20:57 PM permalink
On a regular craps table you can do a lot better than a DP flat bet (47.9% chance of winning) by laying the 4 or 10 (66.7% chance of winning )
It’s all about making that GTA
billryan
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May 20th, 2022 at 6:59:30 PM permalink
Quote: TinMan

Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post



I don't think you can find this in Vegas, but the Sheh-Sam-Hong bet in Fan Tan pays 19 to 60. Your odds of winning a single bet are 75%--i.e., greater than the odds of winning a lay 4 or 10 at craps.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/fan-tan/
link to original post



So a player will win 75% of his bets, but the house still has a 1% edge?
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
tuttigym
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May 20th, 2022 at 7:31:22 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post


Craps: After the point is established, there are 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose or a 5 to 1 edge over the house on any given roll of the dice. The Iron Cross has already been posted showing that player edge or one can PB the 4,5,6,8,9, & 10 plus the horn (2,3,11, & 12) $160 across with a $4 horn. That meets the required criteria of a high probability (80%) of winning a SINGLE bet. The win will happen on the very next roll as opposed to waiting for a 7 out on the 4/10 lay plus the payout is greater with no commission.

While all the mathletes on this forum continuously embrace that craps is a -EV, I prefer to tout the condition that craps is a +PV.

tuttigym
Ace2
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rawtuffOnceDear
May 20th, 2022 at 7:55:09 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym


Craps: After the point is established, there are 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose or a 5 to 1 edge over the house on any given roll of the dice.

While all the mathletes on this forum continuously embrace that craps is a -EV, I prefer to tout the condition that craps is a +PV.

You and Alan Mendelson would make a great team. You think alike and have similar strategies

If I owned a casino I’d welcome you in and there would be no limits
It’s all about making that GTA
AlanMendelson
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May 21st, 2022 at 1:03:16 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym


Craps: After the point is established, there are 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose or a 5 to 1 edge over the house on any given roll of the dice.

While all the mathletes on this forum continuously embrace that craps is a -EV, I prefer to tout the condition that craps is a +PV.

You and Alan Mendelson would make a great team. You think alike and have similar strategies

If I owned a casino I’d welcome you in and there would be no limits
link to original post



Please dont throw out my name like that.

I totally disagree with tuttigym on this one. He cannot say there are 30 ways to win -- that's disingenuous. 30 ways applies to multiple bets and not to any single bet.
OnceDear
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May 21st, 2022 at 1:55:12 AM permalink
Quote: AlanMendelson

Quote: Ace2

You and Alan Mendelson would make a great team. You think alike and have similar strategies

If I owned a casino I’d welcome you in and there would be no limits
link to original post



Please dont throw out my name like that.
link to original post

Agreed.
Maybe comparing named members with each-other could be construed as an insult to at least one of them.... Or possibly both.
$;o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
tuttigym
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May 21st, 2022 at 6:30:11 AM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: tuttigym


Craps: After the point is established, there are 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose or a 5 to 1 edge over the house on any given roll of the dice.

While all the mathletes on this forum continuously embrace that craps is a -EV, I prefer to tout the condition that craps is a +PV.

You and Alan Mendelson would make a great team. You think alike and have similar strategies

If I owned a casino I’d welcome you in and there would be no limits
link to original post


You have got that pretty much backwards. Based on your approach to the game, you and Mr. Mendelson are comparable as "establishment" players. I am quite confident that your play is totally dependent on hitting that "hot" shooter to win at any given session which is at 12%-18% of the time. With all your "math", standard deviations, EV's, and variances, it is truly remarkable that you can belly up to the table and keep up with the action. Your head must be spinning. If you embraced 4th grade arithmetic, craps is really eesy-peesy.

I am already welcomed at all casinos with their available limits, but thanks for the additional welcome.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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May 21st, 2022 at 6:33:49 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Maybe comparing named members with each-other could be construed as an insult to at least one of them.... Or possibly both.
$;o)
link to original post


Considering the source, makes it easy to dismiss any perceived insult.

tuttigym
Dieter
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May 21st, 2022 at 8:14:45 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

The Iron Cross has already been posted showing that player edge or one can PB the 4,5,6,8,9, & 10 plus the horn (2,3,11, & 12) $160 across with a $4 horn. That meets the required criteria of a high probability (80%) of winning a SINGLE bet.
link to original post



The Iron Cross on craps or covering 35 numbers on roulette would both seem to be aggregate wagers, not single wagers.

No idea if they address the spirit of the original question.
May the cards fall in your favor.
lilredrooster
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May 21st, 2022 at 9:55:34 AM permalink
Quote: tuttigym



Craps: After the point is established, there are 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose or a 5 to 1 𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙨𝙚 on any given roll of the dice.


While all the mathletes on this forum continuously embrace that craps is a -EV, I prefer to tout the condition that craps is a +PV.

tuttigym
link to original post




over a great many rolls the player will lose more on those 6 ways when a 7 is rolled than he will win on the 30 times he wins

of course, when he loses - he loses all of those bets

if that was not true the casinos could not exist - the players would find out about this and crush them - casinos are not that stupid to offer a bet where the player has a huge edge - in fact, they're not stupid at all

what you're calling an 𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙨𝙚 is not that at all - it's a misnomer

that would be like saying as Unjon said in the 3rd post in this thread that covering 34 numbers on a roulette wheel gives the player a huge edge, which of course it doesn't - the 2 times he loses on a 2 zero wheel or the one time he loses on a 1 zero wheel will in the long run more than wipe out all of his winnings over a great many trials - the more trials the more likely it is that a player will come closer to his true expectation which is negative - in a very short number of trials he is likely to have a win - but when what is likely doesn't happen he has a loss much, much greater than his likely win



I have a feeling I just wasted a lot of time with this post_________________________sigh



.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
OnceDear
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May 21st, 2022 at 10:12:26 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: tuttigym



Craps: After the point is established, there are 30 ways to win and 6 ways to lose or a 5 to 1 𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙨𝙚 on any given roll of the dice.


While all the mathletes on this forum continuously embrace that craps is a -EV, I prefer to tout the condition that craps is a +PV.

tuttigym
link to original post




over a great many rolls the player will lose more on those 6 ways when a 7 is rolled than he will win on the 30 times he wins

of course, when he loses - he loses all of those bets

if that was not true the casinos could not exist - the players would find out about this and crush them - casinos are not that stupid to offer a bet where the player has a huge edge - in fact, they're not stupid at all

what you're calling an 𝙚𝙙𝙜𝙚 𝙤𝙫𝙚𝙧 𝙩𝙝𝙚 𝙝𝙤𝙪𝙨𝙚 is not that at all - it's a misnomer

that would be like saying as Unjon said in the 3rd post in this thread that covering 34 numbers on a roulette wheel gives the player a huge edge, which of course it doesn't - the 2 times he loses on a 2 zero wheel or the one time he loses on a 1 zero wheel will in the long run more than wipe out all of his winnings over a great many trials - the more trials the more likely it is that a player will come closer to his true expectation which is negative - in a very short number of trials he is likely to have a win - but when what is likely doesn't happen he has a loss much, much greater than his likely win



I have a feeling I just wasted a lot of time with this post_________________________sigh



.
link to original post

Yup!
You really need to recognise the futility in it. Go stand in the corner. $:o)
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
billryan
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May 21st, 2022 at 1:41:31 PM permalink
Let your light shine bright for those who dwell in the dark.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
tuttigym
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May 21st, 2022 at 2:12:15 PM permalink
Quote: Dieter

Quote: tuttigym

The Iron Cross has already been posted showing that player edge or one can PB the 4,5,6,8,9, & 10 plus the horn (2,3,11, & 12) $160 across with a $4 horn. That meets the required criteria of a high probability (80%) of winning a SINGLE bet.
link to original post



The Iron Cross on craps or covering 35 numbers on roulette would both seem to be aggregate wagers, not single wagers.

No idea if they address the spirit of the original question.
link to original post


Mr.Dieter: I interpreted the question for its probability of winning on a single event. One can produce the Iron Cross or the across the board + horn or 35 numbers as a single wagering pattern for one toss of the dice or spin of the ball for an outcome. In the case of roulette, one spin and the event is concluded. In craps, the player can commit to one toss of the dice and come down, i.e., a single event. While your interpretation differs from mine, i guess we should leave it up to the inquisitor to decide.

Mr.Lrr's post is typical of those who downplay and misinterpret questions and posts by providing comments that revolve around total negativity, i.e., losing rather than providing an answer in line with positive probabilities.

tuttigym
lilredrooster
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May 21st, 2022 at 2:32:18 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym



Mr.Lrr's post is typical of those who downplay and misinterpret questions and posts by providing comments that revolve around total negativity, i.e., losing rather than providing an answer in line with positive probabilities.

tuttigym
link to original post




you must be totally crushing the casinos with the huge edge you have - winning so many bets and losing so few

I feel something happening to me inside my soul that has never happened before

I'm changing before my very own eyes



𝙎𝙐𝘿𝘿𝙀𝙉𝙇𝙔, 𝙄 𝙁𝙀𝙀𝙇 𝙑𝙀𝙍𝙔, 𝙑𝙀𝙍𝙔 𝙎𝙊𝙍𝙍𝙔 𝙁𝙊𝙍 𝙏𝙃𝙀 𝘾𝘼𝙎𝙄𝙉𝙊𝙎 𝙏𝙃𝘼𝙏 𝙃𝘼𝙑𝙀 𝘽𝙀𝙀𝙉 𝙁𝙊𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙎𝙃 𝙀𝙉𝙊𝙐𝙂𝙃 𝙏𝙊 𝙊𝙁𝙁𝙀𝙍 𝙏𝙃𝙀 𝙂𝘼𝙈𝙀 𝙊𝙁 𝘾𝙍𝘼𝙋𝙎

𝙏𝙊 𝙔𝙊𝙐


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
Dieter
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May 21st, 2022 at 3:20:50 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym


Quote: Dieter

Quote: tuttigym

The Iron Cross has already been posted showing that player edge or one can PB the 4,5,6,8,9, & 10 plus the horn (2,3,11, & 12) $160 across with a $4 horn. That meets the required criteria of a high probability (80%) of winning a SINGLE bet.
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The Iron Cross on craps or covering 35 numbers on roulette would both seem to be aggregate wagers, not single wagers.

No idea if they address the spirit of the original question.
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Mr.Dieter: I interpreted the question for its probability of winning on a single event. One can produce the Iron Cross or the across the board + horn or 35 numbers as a single wagering pattern for one toss of the dice or spin of the ball for an outcome. In the case of roulette, one spin and the event is concluded. In craps, the player can commit to one toss of the dice and come down, i.e., a single event. While your interpretation differs from mine, i guess we should leave it up to the inquisitor to decide.

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(trimmed)

Indeed. I've been reluctant to mention the blackjack surrender play, for similar reasons.
Whenever you make it, you WILL be paid, although you always end up with less than you start with (1 for 2), so it may not count as a win.
However... on a technicality, maybe.
... but don't do that.
May the cards fall in your favor.
tuttigym
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May 21st, 2022 at 3:21:00 PM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: tuttigym



Mr.Lrr's post is typical of those who downplay and misinterpret questions and posts by providing comments that revolve around total negativity, i.e., losing rather than providing an answer in line with positive probabilities.

tuttigym
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you must be totally crushing the casinos with the huge edge you have - winning so many bets and losing so few

I feel something happening to me inside my soul that has never happened before

I'm changing before my very own eyes



𝙎𝙐𝘿𝘿𝙀𝙉𝙇𝙔, 𝙄 𝙁𝙀𝙀𝙇 𝙑𝙀𝙍𝙔, 𝙑𝙀𝙍𝙔 𝙎𝙊𝙍𝙍𝙔 𝙁𝙊𝙍 𝙏𝙃𝙀 𝘾𝘼𝙎𝙄𝙉𝙊𝙎 𝙏𝙃𝘼𝙏 𝙃𝘼𝙑𝙀 𝘽𝙀𝙀𝙉 𝙁𝙊𝙊𝙇𝙄𝙎𝙃 𝙀𝙉𝙊𝙐𝙂𝙃 𝙏𝙊 𝙊𝙁𝙁𝙀𝙍 𝙏𝙃𝙀 𝙂𝘼𝙈𝙀 𝙊𝙁 𝘾𝙍𝘼𝙋𝙎

𝙏𝙊 𝙔𝙊𝙐


.
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So glad you have experienced the epiphany. Go forth and crush it. You will prevail. I feel your joy. BTW can I call you Tiny Scarlet Chicken?

tuttigym
Last edited by: tuttigym on May 21, 2022
billryan
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May 21st, 2022 at 4:52:18 PM permalink
The only sure combination of bets that I know of would be to insure a blackjack. You guarantee a win but you give up a good deal of value. It's one of the worst bets you can make.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ace2
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May 21st, 2022 at 7:15:03 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: Ace2

Quote: Venthus

A few years back, there was a machine at The D that advertised itself to be a winner on every spin. Ran like 50$ at minbet for half an hour and not a single one was a net positive

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
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As the OP is looking for the single bet with highest probability of winning, I doubt he'll find anything better than laying the 2 or 12. You have an 85.7% chance of winning. What's more, assuming the commission is collected on a win only and you bet $175, the house edge is only 57 basis points. Very low standard deviation of 0.406 if that's a priority.

Has anyone confirmed that the commission is charged on win only for buying/laying all numbers in crapless?
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Charged on win for buying extreme outside at mgm strip casinos. I’ve not tried to lay.
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Can you also confirm that they round down for the commission? For instance, if you buy the 2 for $75, is the commission $3?

Thanks
It’s all about making that GTA
roumin
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May 22nd, 2022 at 10:45:32 AM permalink
thank you all. feedback and suggestions were very helpful. I was looking for a grind play and did not know about craps iron cross. very cool
OnceDear
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camapl
May 22nd, 2022 at 10:59:00 AM permalink
Quote: roumin

thank you all. feedback and suggestions were very helpful. I was looking for a grind play and did not know about craps iron cross. very cool
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If you want a grind play, and some potential profit, bet 35 numbers on a single zero roulette.
On those occasions where a zero is going to land, don't bet that spin.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
tuttigym
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May 22nd, 2022 at 2:38:01 PM permalink
Quote: OnceDear

Quote: roumin

thank you all. feedback and suggestions were very helpful. I was looking for a grind play and did not know about craps iron cross. very cool
link to original post


If you want a grind play, and some potential profit, bet 35 numbers on a single zero roulette.
On those occasions where a zero is going to land, don't bet that spin.
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If one has arthritis, placing chips on 35 numbers could be a painful exercise. So, how long does it take to do that, and how many players at the table will be annoyed with the party reaching all over the table to place those bets??

Assuming each chip is $1 in value, making a $1 win/spin is beyond a grind, so how much would one need to win to consider the session good and profitable? Having deodorant handy would be a necessity plus a clairvoyant touch.

I will wager OD is tongue in cheek too.

tuttigym
tuttigym
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May 22nd, 2022 at 2:45:09 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

thank you all. feedback and suggestions were very helpful. I was looking for a grind play and did not know about craps iron cross. very cool
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Just remember, it will take approximately six tosses before a 7 out to cover the totality of bets on the table to have a net win. Otherwise, taking down all the bets after three or four wins can be prudent and profitable. There are some other pitfalls and plays so, use the WoO craps game on this site and practice. It is free and fun and enlightening.

tuttigym
Ace2
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ChumpChange
May 22nd, 2022 at 3:17:23 PM permalink
Quote: billryan

The only sure combination of bets that I know of would be to insure a blackjack. You guarantee a win but you give up a good deal of value. It's one of the worst bets you can make.
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The insurance bet itself is high edge (1/13th of bet amount), but if you only insure blackjacks then it increases the overall edge of the game by only about one basis point. This is because it only happens about once every 270 hands.

The only time I'll consider insuring a blackjack is if I've made a very large bet. It can be tempting to take the sure win for even money. If you have a $500 bet out there, hit a BJ and the dealer is showing an ace, the EV of your hand is $1,019.23. So for $19 you get a guaranteed $1,000 instead of $500 or $1250
Last edited by: Ace2 on May 22, 2022
It’s all about making that GTA
OnceDear
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May 22nd, 2022 at 3:22:46 PM permalink
Quote: tuttigym

Quote: OnceDear

Quote: roumin

thank you all. feedback and suggestions were very helpful. I was looking for a grind play and did not know about craps iron cross. very cool
link to original post


If you want a grind play, and some potential profit, bet 35 numbers on a single zero roulette.
On those occasions where a zero is going to land, don't bet that spin.
link to original post


If one has arthritis, placing chips on 35 numbers could be a painful exercise. So, how long does it take to do that, and how many players at the table will be annoyed with the party reaching all over the table to place those bets??

Assuming each chip is $1 in value, making a $1 win/spin is beyond a grind, so how much would one need to win to consider the session good and profitable? Having deodorant handy would be a necessity plus a clairvoyant touch.

I will wager OD is tongue in cheek too.

tuttigym
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He could save some effort by placing chips on streets and corners for the same effect. It would be a dumb way to wager in MOST circumstances.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
ChumpChange
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May 22nd, 2022 at 3:54:09 PM permalink
If I'm trying to make up some ground in Roulette, I'll bet 6 chips on two different dozens (1-12 & 13-24), then place 3 chips on a double street (25-30). I'll win 3 chips per winning spin. There's still 7 or 8 ways to lose 15 chips. When the ball lands on green, the HA just took a cut.
Ace2
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May 22nd, 2022 at 4:00:21 PM permalink
Quote: ChumpChange

If I'm trying to make up some ground in Roulette, I'll bet 6 chips on two different dozens (1-12 & 13-24), then place 3 chips on a double street (25-30). I'll win 3 chips per winning spin. There's still 7 or 8 ways to lose 15 chips. When the ball lands on green, the HA just took a cut.
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Expected return of that bet combination on a double zero wheel: 36/38 = 94.7% of amount wagered. Same return for every single bet and every combination of bets on the table.
It’s all about making that GTA
ThatDonGuy
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May 22nd, 2022 at 4:52:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ace2

Quote: ChumpChange

If I'm trying to make up some ground in Roulette, I'll bet 6 chips on two different dozens (1-12 & 13-24), then place 3 chips on a double street (25-30). I'll win 3 chips per winning spin. There's still 7 or 8 ways to lose 15 chips. When the ball lands on green, the HA just took a cut.
link to original post

Expected return of that bet combination on a double zero wheel: 36/38 = 94.7% of amount wagered. Same return for every single bet and every combination of bets on the table.
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True, but remember, this thread is about the highest probability of a bet that wins (and presumably "wins" means you end up with more money after the bet than what you had before the bet). I think "cover 35 numbers" still leads in terms of probability, although in effect it pays off at only 1-35 odds.

Of course, if you allow for multiple non-simultaneous bets, our dear friend Mr. Martin Gale has them all beat.
lilredrooster
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May 23rd, 2022 at 12:37:57 AM permalink
duplicate
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
lilredrooster
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May 23rd, 2022 at 12:38:36 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Quote: Ace2

Quote: ChumpChange

If I'm trying to make up some ground in Roulette, I'll bet 6 chips on two different dozens (1-12 & 13-24), then place 3 chips on a double street (25-30). I'll win 3 chips per winning spin. There's still 7 or 8 ways to lose 15 chips. When the ball lands on green, the HA just took a cut.
link to original post

Expected return of that bet combination on a double zero wheel: 36/38 = 94.7% of amount wagered. Same return for every single bet and every combination of bets on the table.
link to original post


True, but remember, this thread is about the highest probability of a bet that wins (and presumably "wins" means you end up with more money after the bet than what you had before the bet). I think "cover 35 numbers" still leads in terms of probability, although in effect it pays off at only 1-35 odds.

Of course, if you allow for multiple non-simultaneous bets, our dear friend Mr. Martin Gale has them all beat.
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_____________


and if you happen to lose your first bet of $1.00 in roulette while covering 35 numbers - no problem

you can visit Mr. Martin Gale on this one too

your next bet is $36 on 35 numbers for an investment of only $1,260 you almost insure dynamic profitability

uh oh - terrible luck - you lost than one too - no problem

$1,261 on your next spin covering 35 numbers for only - $44,135

hey, you win that time - you're in the money - nice________________________ ~:/


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
OnceDear
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May 23rd, 2022 at 1:04:23 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

And if you happen to lose your first bet of $1.00 in roulette while covering 35 numbers - no problem
you can visit Mr. Martin Gale on this one too
your next bet is $36 on 35 numbers for an investment of only $1,260 you almost insure dynamic profitability
uh oh - terrible luck - you lost than one too - no problem
$1,261 on your next spin covering 35 numbers for only - $44,135
hey, you win that time - you're in the money - nice________________________ ~:/
.
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Probably..... Almost Certainly..... Guaranteed easy profit.
Odds of winning massively stacked in the players favour. LOL.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
lilredrooster
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May 23rd, 2022 at 4:21:09 AM permalink
Quote: OnceDear


.
Probably..... Almost Certainly..... Guaranteed easy profit.
Odds of winning massively stacked in the players favour. LOL.




Mr. Martin Gale is always lurking in the background

he is 𝙖𝙡𝙬𝙖𝙮𝙨 ready, willing and able to show you how to recover your losses and get ahead

the man is a legend


.
the foolish sayings of a rich man often pass for words of wisdom by the fools around him
OnceDear
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May 23rd, 2022 at 5:44:58 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

Quote: OnceDear


.
Probably..... Almost Certainly..... Guaranteed easy profit.
Odds of winning massively stacked in the players favour. LOL.


Mr. Martin Gale is always lurking in the background
he is 𝙖𝙡𝙬𝙖𝙮𝙨 ready, willing and able to show you how to recover your losses and get ahead
the man is a legend
.
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Progressive money management systems rock ! I don't understand why folk are so hostile to Marty and friends. It's not as though they increase the house edge.

Increases your probability of winning: No effect on house edge: More exciting: What's not to love?

No, but seriously!
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
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