roumin
roumin
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May 19th, 2022 at 3:34:00 PM permalink
Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
ChumpChange
ChumpChange 
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May 19th, 2022 at 3:42:00 PM permalink
I thought laying the 9 on the come-out only was a good idea, until I lost 7 times in a row.
unJon
unJon
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May 19th, 2022 at 4:04:15 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
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Cover 34 numbers on a roulette wheel.
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
Venthus
Venthus
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May 19th, 2022 at 4:04:33 PM permalink
A few years back, there was a machine at The D that advertised itself to be a winner on every spin. Ran like 50$ at minbet for half an hour and not a single one was a net positive.

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
roumin
roumin
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May 19th, 2022 at 4:18:09 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post



Cover 34 numbers on a roulette wheel.
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true - thanks
roumin
roumin
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May 19th, 2022 at 4:24:39 PM permalink
Quote: Venthus

A few years back, there was a machine at The D that advertised itself to be a winner on every spin. Ran like 50$ at minbet for half an hour and not a single one was a net positive.

If you're looking at craps, how about laying the 2/12 on crapless craps?
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never heard of crapless craps
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy 
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Thanks for this post from:
unJon
May 19th, 2022 at 5:02:17 PM permalink
Quote: unJon

Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.



Cover 34 numbers on a roulette wheel.
link to original post


Assuming you are restricting this to bets where you make money if you win, you can cover 35 numbers and still make money (if one of them hits, you gain 35 on the winning number, and lose 34 on the others, so you gain 1 overall), so covering 35 has a higher probability of winning.

But there's a question: besides craps, and the 5% commission on betting the banker in baccarat, what other table games have a single bet that pays less than even money on them?
Venthus
Venthus
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May 19th, 2022 at 5:25:31 PM permalink
Quote: roumin


never heard of crapless craps
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An info sheet from what appears to be a casino here: https://casino.harringtonraceway.com/sites/default/files/pdf/Crapless%20Craps.pdf

(A quick look around, not all places may allow laying 2/3/11/12.)
Quote: ThatDonGuy

But there's a question: besides craps, and the 5% commission on betting the banker in baccarat, what other table games have a single bet that pays less than even money on them?
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I'm pretty sure there's at least one carnie game that paid 1:2 on a DNQ.

How about an imprisoned bet on euro roulette? That's functionally a 'Lose half'/'Win back'
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 19th, 2022 at 5:38:20 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post

It's best you explain what your goal is and what you are trying to achieve. There are all kinds of situations and games that can accomplish certain things. There are games where it's all but certain you would bet and get a payback and I'm not talking about offsets.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on May 19, 2022
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
TinMan
TinMan
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May 19th, 2022 at 6:30:18 PM permalink
Quote: roumin

Does anyone know which game or bet in Vegas with the highest probability of wining a single bet. I am not talking about odds or casino edge. I am talking about bets with high probability which usually come with a low payout. For example: Craps lay bet on 10 or 4.
link to original post



I don't think you can find this in Vegas, but the Sheh-Sam-Hong bet in Fan Tan pays 19 to 60. Your odds of winning a single bet are 75%--i.e., greater than the odds of winning a lay 4 or 10 at craps.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/fan-tan/
If anyone gives you 10,000 to 1 on anything, you take it. If John Mellencamp ever wins an Oscar, I am going to be a very rich dude.

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