Wizard Question

Wizard, of the 250,000 shoes in your simulation, how many started with a run of 5 or more and of 6 or more? Ties not included and specifically talking about player run or banker run. Thanks in advance.

Here are the results of 100 million shoes - the numbers indicate the fraction of shoes that had a run of that length or more at the start, ignoring ties (so 1 out of every 70 shoes started with a run of 6 or more player wins, and 1 out of every 59 started with a run of 6 or more bank wins):

Run	Player	Bank
5	1 / 34	1 / 30
6	1 / 70	1 / 59
7	1 / 141	1 / 116
8	1 / 286	1 / 230
9	1 / 580	1 / 454
10	1 / 1,176	1 / 897
11	1 / 2,396	1 / 1,772
12	1 / 4,841	1 / 3,485
13	1 / 9,949	1 / 6,888
14	1 / 19,958	1 / 13,614
15	1 / 41,566	1 / 27,524
16	1 / 86,697	1 / 53,502
17	1 / 170,440	1 / 107,233
18	1 / 343,809	1 / 205,861
19	1 / 704,566	1 / 374,713
20	1 / 1,429,262	1 / 714,631

Thanks Don! I would trust whatever Don says.

Thanks Don for the quick reply. I truly appreciate it. New to the community. Thanks for the help!

You're still more likely to hit 19 Player wins than 20 Banker wins in a row.

Don I’m having some success using the math that you provided. Would that math be the same if we are charting runs of those lengths at anytime of the shoe? Sorry if that seems like a “dumb” question but I’ve been doing fairly well betting against runs at the beginning of shoes using what you provided so I was wondering about looking for certain spots at anytime throughout the shoe.

Quote: Baccdude303

Don I’m having some success using the math that you provided. Would that math be the same if we are charting runs of those lengths at anytime of the shoe?

First of all, it's not really "math"; it's a simulation.

In the past, I have seen no significant changes in probabilities based on where in the shoe you are.

Quote: Baccdude303

Sorry if that seems like a “dumb” question but I’ve been doing fairly well betting against runs at the beginning of shoes using what you provided

Stop right there.

Question: how are you "betting against runs"? Do you, say, wait for a run of 5 player wins and then bet against it, under the impression that the probability of a player win is only 1/70 (which is incorrect)? Or, perhaps, after a player win, you start a Martingale-style progression of bank bets? Going by the numbers I showed, neither of those will work in the long run - you will have a significant number of short-term wins, but the few losses you get will more than wipe those out.

Don I swear I knew I was going to get in trouble when I told you what I was doing :)

I know how you and The Wizard feel about Martingale-style systems. I know that in the long run it’ll catch up to me. I was just trying to see what I could generate in the short term.

I take the first hand “free” and then bet a negative progression against whatever that decision is (not taking into consideration a tie.) I look to make 1 unit per shoe so in many occasions I’m done after the 1st bet/ 2nd hand. My unit varies depending 500-1000 depending on which house I play. I’m a Las Vegas local and my main places I play have a 20k max (Station Casinos and Wynn HL room.) At the Venetian the max bet is 35k & at Commerce Casino in California I get 60k in the dragon room.

I’ve played 104 shoes since getting your simulation numbers. I have had a few shoes gobble me up but I’m ahead just under 30k since starting.

I’ll play it through the rest of the month and report back.

If you’re ever in Vegas send me a message. Let’s play a few shoes together. Dinner and hotel suite on me.

Quote: Baccdude303

I look to make 1 unit per shoe so in many occasions I’m done after the 1st bet/ 2nd hand. My unit varies depending 500-1000 depending on which house I play.

If you’re ever in Vegas send me a message. Let’s play a few shoes together. Dinner and hotel suite on me.

Thanks for the offer, but it looks like you bet purples and up, whereas I sweat every time I put a green on the table. Besides, based on what I usually pack for a trip to Vegas, something tells me the places you go for dinner, I don't quite meet the dress code. I am a firm believer in, "If I'm paying $75 for a meal, I expect $75 worth of food."