Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 12
April 6th, 2021 at 10:58:47 AM permalink
I play DD 3/2 DAS blackjack. I use hi-lo count system with 4 to 1 bet spread. I get very poor penetration at 50%. With the above conditions, am I playing an even game or possibly a very, very slight player advantage. I also incorporate about half the illustrious 18. Looking for a numerical figure for house or player advantage. Thanks.
kewlj
kewlj
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
  • Threads: 212
  • Posts: 4299
April 6th, 2021 at 11:13:34 AM permalink
Quote: Howdy234

I play DD 3/2 DAS blackjack. I use hi-lo count system with 4 to 1 bet spread. I get very poor penetration at 50%. With the above conditions, am I playing an even game or possibly a very, very slight player advantage. I also incorporate about half the illustrious 18. Looking for a numerical figure for house or player advantage. Thanks.



You didn't post all the rules, but assuming double on anything, double after split, you are looking at a house edge of .45% off the top.

The other thing important in determining if you can make any money is penetration and 50% on DD is not good. I like at least 60%. But you can beat it. A 1-4 spread will definitely turn the game positive EV (people don't realize how small a spread it takes to turn a DD game +EV), but making any kind of decent return I would spread 1-6 and ramp up pretty quickly. I think I would max bet by TC +3. maybe something like base bet 1 units, @ TC +1 =2units, TC +2 =4 units, and TC +3 = 6 units.

You need to ramp up quickly because with a lesser penetration game the true count frequencies of the higher more favorable counts will be less (those high counts will occur less frequently). So you want to get money out reasonably early in +EV situations.

Problem with ramping up quickly is you will bounce back and forth between base bet and higher bets some, which can get noticed. Do you play this place regularly and have a read on tolerance levels and how sweaty they are?
Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 12
April 6th, 2021 at 11:42:36 AM permalink
Thanks for the reply kewlj. The other conditions double on anything and DAS is correct.

Changing tables to better penetration is not an option. Wish it was. Typically only one DD game in casino. Shoe game is offered by not playable because all of them are 6/5.

Been playing this casino for years. Know all the floor person's, shift supervisors and pit bosses. Don't get any heat at all at 4 to 1 bet spread. I believe they know I am counting however at 4 to 1 spread, they seem uninterested. In addition, I don't believe at this late juncture they are interested in banning me since I can only play once a week and they don't want the publicity of banning me with bad publicity from other players asking about me. I could be wrong but I think that train has left the station.

I was hoping the wizard could give me a numerical approximation with the conditions mentioned above. Like 0.45% house advantage with perfect basic strategy in the flat bet game you alluded to.
theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 272
April 6th, 2021 at 11:45:45 AM permalink
Quote: Howdy234

I play DD 3/2 DAS blackjack. I use hi-lo count system with 4 to 1 bet spread. I get very poor penetration at 50%. With the above conditions, am I playing an even game or possibly a very, very slight player advantage. I also incorporate about half the illustrious 18. Looking for a numerical figure for house or player advantage. Thanks.



Greetings Howdy234! Here are some numbers for you based on some of the details you've provided..

Game: 2D H17 DAS, 50% pen.
Spread: $25 - $100 (max bet at +4, leave table at -2)
System: Hi-Lo, Il18 (not sure which deviations you use)
EV: +$7.28 per hour (100 hands)
Overall player edge: +0.17%

So given the very small edge, this game is about break even. However, if you can increase your spread a little and maybe find a game with a little better penetration, that would make a big difference.

Hope this helps, and welcome to the forum!

- Omega
Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 12
April 6th, 2021 at 11:49:54 AM permalink
Thanks Omega. Exactly what I was looking for and those are the exact conditions except for split up to 4 times but no resplit aces.
theOmega623
theOmega623
Joined: Oct 30, 2014
  • Threads: 14
  • Posts: 272
April 6th, 2021 at 12:04:22 PM permalink
Quote: Howdy234

Thanks Omega. Exactly what I was looking for and those are the exact conditions except for split up to 4 times but no resplit aces.



No problem my friend! 👍
BoSox
BoSox
Joined: Mar 9, 2021
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 138
April 6th, 2021 at 3:19:39 PM permalink
Quote: Howdy234

I also incorporate about half the illustrious 18.




Howdy234, could you mention which indexes that you do not use from the I-18, and the reason for not using them? Plus I would like to know if you play every hand "play all" of the double-deck game, or do you do any Wonging in and out? Do you sit out any hands?
Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 12
Thanks for this post from:
kewlj
April 6th, 2021 at 3:50:49 PM permalink
Wong out at anything less than TC -2. As I am sure your aware, the il18 has diminishing returns for 9-18. Of course, the most important deviation is take insurance TC +3. I don't split tens at all and will not double 10 vs. 10. Can't split 10,10 vs 5 at TC +5 and 10,10 vs 6 at TC +4. I do the rest of the il18. As you are aware, those two plays are for counters only and imbeciles. The casino knows I am not an imbecile so there you go. I like playing there and don't want to rub salt in the wound. Lol.
BoSox
BoSox
Joined: Mar 9, 2021
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 138
April 6th, 2021 at 4:54:47 PM permalink
Quote: Howdy234

Wong out at anything less than TC -2. As I am sure your aware, the il18 has diminishing returns for 9-18. Of course, the most important deviation is take insurance TC +3. I don't split tens at all and will not double 10 vs. 10. Can't split 10,10 vs 5 at TC +5 and 10,10 vs 6 at TC +4. I do the rest of the il18. As you are aware, those two plays are for counters only and imbeciles. The casino knows I am not an imbecile so there you go. I like playing there and don't want to rub salt in the wound. Lol.



Howdy, I only play shoes games and also do not split 10,10 nor do I double10 vs 10.

Take a look at the catch 22 Risk-Averse Indices I like using the soft 19 doubles against 5and 6 at a true of +1.
Playing double-deck games as you do I recommend that you learn more index plays but only ones that have a decent chance of seeing frequently. I would do this in the form of risk-averse by adding one extra true count number before making the added plays otherwise you don't want to get involved in tradeoffs with very small minor edges at the expense of adding a whole lot more variance, which applies much more to shoe games with bigger spreads.
Howdy234
Howdy234
Joined: Apr 2, 2021
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 12
April 6th, 2021 at 5:10:23 PM permalink
Bosox, Like that idea. Thanks for info.

  • Jump to: