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33 votes (27.73%)
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119 members have voted

beerseason
beerseason
Joined: Aug 14, 2013
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September 20th, 2016 at 6:07:43 PM permalink
Quote: ams288

I understand the point you are trying to make. But it's irrelevant. There isn't any one pollster that does polls of a single state every single week. Most of them do 1 per month. So we don't have a Monmouth poll from last week. The one you're obsessing over is from Aug. 12-15.

We do have a CNN poll from last week showing her down 3.

We now have three Florida polls this week, showing Clinton +1, +5, and +6.

She's regaining her lead after her downswing last week. It's that simple. You can keep trying to nitpick all you want, but I'm not backing down.



I haven't looked at how monmouth came up with the demographics of florida. That could be one way to look at it, if their numbers are skewed there. But monmouth is also showing a 8 pt Trump lead in Iowa. Which could also correlate. It's kind of like Roanoke poll which showed Hillary up 19 in Virginia. Next closest during that time period was plus 12 for her. How they construct the demographics will invariably change the results. Skew party affiliation or lack thereof, ethnicity, income, etc will lead to different results, and that is the hard part picking those correctly which are based off previous exit polls. When I think you will see in this election a different percentage of groups of likely voters than from previous elections.

If I was Roanoke I would have never released that VA poll. It was a disaster. RCP Avg for New York is 17. And they came up with 19 for VA? Absolutely no way.
rxwine
rxwine
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
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September 20th, 2016 at 6:46:26 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Somehow, someone thinks that saying Bush41 is going to vote for Hillary is going to be a help?
.



Bush41 may be establishment, but I'm also sure he would have never said he wasn't voting for Ted Cruz if Ted had been the nominee.

No, you're kidding yourself if you don't think Trump has more problems than just not being favored as an establishment candidate.
Quasimodo? Does that name ring a bell?
mdh
mdh
Joined: Feb 23, 2011
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September 20th, 2016 at 7:55:21 PM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Quote: RS

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Don't say foolish things. Your "specific examples" didn't actually prove jack diddly. You're the only person on the planet who believes Trump was telling the truth about that. Really, why the slavish, toadying loyalty to him? He's a liar, and everyone knows it.



Ironic, coming from a Clinton supporter.



Yes, Clinton is a thieving, conniving, evil witch who tortures small animals for fun, lies to everybody including her own computer, eats ground glass for breakfast, has destroyed entire ecosystems, and has personally murdered tens of millions of people.

However, that doesn't make Trump any less of a liar.

Yes, Trump is a thieving, conniving, evil witch who tortures small animals for fun (waterboarding) and lies to everyone. However that doesn't make Clinton any less of a liar. Someone is starting to reach Joeblow. BBB please get this suspension thread back on track.
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
Joined: Jul 27, 2016
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September 20th, 2016 at 9:52:35 PM permalink
Quote: mdh

BBB please get this suspension thread back on track.



Sorry, neither I nor anyone else are going to be suspended for expressing opinions you don't agree with. Fantasize away, though. Crushing free speech is a major Trump goal.
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
Joined: Jul 27, 2016
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September 20th, 2016 at 9:56:58 PM permalink
Quote: rxwine

I wouldn't be at all surprised to see Trump doing a perp walk in handcuffs one day. His exposing himself to high profile investigations may just lead to that.



That may be why he was acting like he was dumping the race last month. He may have been sensing the cops getting ready to knock on his door, and figured that if he quit the race, the intense scrutiny would end. But the Republican establishment begged him to soldier on, flattering his ego.
RS
RS
Joined: Feb 11, 2014
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September 20th, 2016 at 10:07:14 PM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Sorry, neither I nor anyone else are going to be suspended for expressing opinions you don't agree with. Fantasize away, though. Crushing free speech is a major Trump goal.



Nobody said anything about suspensions for that. But I think insulting a member IS suspension worthy:

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

I no longer am concerned with Trump. He's a lying, mean-spirited piece of filth, and nothing's going to change that. What worries me is the large, festering population of Trumpers. This clown's behavior should make any decent, reasonable person sick, and it should certainly keep anyone from voting for him! Yet, he has millions of loyal Storm Troopers. He may yet win the election. What does that say about our country, when racism, bigotry and hatred get over forty percent of the vote?

Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
Joined: Jul 27, 2016
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September 20th, 2016 at 10:56:51 PM permalink
Quote: RS

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Sorry, neither I nor anyone else are going to be suspended for expressing opinions you don't agree with. Fantasize away, though. Crushing free speech is a major Trump goal.



Nobody said anything about suspensions for that. But I think insulting a member IS suspension worthy:

Quote: Joeshlabotnik

I no longer am concerned with Trump. He's a lying, mean-spirited piece of filth, and nothing's going to change that. What worries me is the large, festering population of Trumpers. This clown's behavior should make any decent, reasonable person sick, and it should certainly keep anyone from voting for him! Yet, he has millions of loyal Storm Troopers. He may yet win the election. What does that say about our country, when racism, bigotry and hatred get over forty percent of the vote?



Trump is a member of this forum? Since when?

And Babs already explained to you that making general (insulting) statements about a group to which a member may or may not belong is OK; insulting a specific member is not. She also explained that the restrictions were somewhat relaxed on this specific thread.

So I will continue to say mean, nasty, and unfortunately, truthful things about Trumpers.
RonC
RonC
Joined: Jan 18, 2010
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  • Posts: 4874
September 21st, 2016 at 2:51:31 AM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

And Babs already explained to you that making general (insulting) statements about a group to which a member may or may not belong is OK; insulting a specific member is not. She also explained that the restrictions were somewhat relaxed on this specific thread.

So I will continue to say mean, nasty, and unfortunately, truthful things about Trumpers.



While one moderator may have said those things, I don't ever count on them (as a group) following the same script at all times. One of them has warned someone only to have that warning overturned by another and the member ending up suspended. Since she is not the only moderator, and certainly not the boss, I wouldn't take it as free reign to say anything you want as long as you lump the members you insult in with a larger group.

Your "truths" remind me of a lot of lies out there; much like all the % things that have gotten people in trouble--Romney's 47%, Hillary's 50%, etc.--there are some horrible, terrible, nasty people among Trump supporters. There are also some horrible, terrible, nasty people on Hillary's side. Perhaps one has a % more than the other, but it isn't really as wide of a gap as you would state it is. There are also some fine folks out there on both sides, whether you happen to like it or not. You can call them all the names in the world, but your false reality is nowhere close to true. Neither Republicans or Democrats deserve to be eliminated; how someone as supposedly educated as you could even bring something like that up is reprehensible. If you want to paint everyone on the other side with a broad brush and call them names, it is fine...but it says more about you than it does about them. What it says is not good.
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
Joined: Jul 27, 2016
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September 21st, 2016 at 6:18:50 AM permalink
Quote: RonC

(blah blah) What it says is not good.



If it makes a Trumper not like me, well, then, it IS good. You're the one who is saying there are differences in perception and that one side's opinion is as valid as the other. I consider Trumpers to either be deplorables (might as well use that word now) or to have abandoned their morality and principles for the sake of Party unity or not electing Clinton or some such. Of the two, I consider the latter far worse. Being a rotten person is one thing, Choosing to become one for the sake of some expedient goal is another.

And why am I not acknowledging that there could be perfectly decent people who are supporting Trump for perfectly good reasons? Because there ARE no such reasons. Anyone with a brain can see that Trump is unfit for office (or much of anything else). Therefore, I do indeed divide Trumpers into, essentially, two reprehensible camps.

And what you think about me personally means less than nothing. I have never met you, and hope I never do.

And by the way, it's "free REIN." As in, the reins on a horse. To give the horse free rein is to allow it to go where it wants to,
RonC
RonC
Joined: Jan 18, 2010
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September 21st, 2016 at 6:29:01 AM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

And by the way, it's "free REIN." As in, the reins on a horse. To give the horse free rein is to allow it to go where it wants to,



Thank you, Mr. Grammar Policeperson. And by the way, sentences don't end in commas.

"You have three options for the end of a sentence: period, exclamation mark, or question mark. Each one sets a different tone for the whole sentence. When we’re reading out loud, our tone naturally adjusts to the punctuation: a period is calm and sedate, an exclamation mark is loud and excited, and the question mark turns the end of the sentence up in wonder. In fact, you can use the same words and the same punctuation within the sentence, and change the whole meaning by using different end punctuation."

https://www.grammarly.com/handbook/punctuation/end-sentence-punctuation/

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