ACE ACE

Question for the wiz. If you have AA in blackjack what is the chance of making a total of 19, 20 or 21? The aces are not split.
6 deck.
Thanks in advance!

Q1: Are you splitting them or just hitting?

Quote: rsactuary

Q1: Are you splitting them or just hitting?
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I'm assuming that the aces are not split.

Would it depend on the decks used? Two cards removed from fifty would seem different than two cards removed from three hundred plus.

If you're playing in the UK (i.e. no peeking) you do not split Aces vs A; so you also hit soft 18 (e.g. AA6). Thus this will make is slightly more likely you could get to 19-21. I guess you could also reach the re-split limit, but imagine you wouldn't be allowed to hit AA (in the UK there isn't a split limit). Alternatviely you've run out of money so are having to hit AA - in which case you hit soft 18 vs 9, T, A.

Yes, indeed it depends on the decks used. Let us say we use a 6 deck.

Indeed.

Here's what I get, assuming you are working from a full shoe:

6 decks:
19 or better: 56.861597%
20 or better: 42.677569%
21: 24.080293%

8 decks:
19 or better: 56.874842%
20 or better: 42.703627%
21: 24.112172%

Thanks for your effort. Did you do a mathematical calculation or a simulation?

Quote: ThatDonGuy

Here's what I get, assuming you are working from a full shoe:

6 decks:
19 or better: 56.861597%
20 or better: 42.677569%
21: 24.080293%

8 decks:
19 or better: 56.874842%
20 or better: 42.703627%
21: 24.112172%
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A soft 12 has a 24% chance of turning into a 21?? Or did I read things wrong?

Quote: BJ007

Thanks for your effort. Did you do a mathematical calculation or a simulation?
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The way I crunch numbers around here? Both, just to be sure. I may have exact fractions around here somewhere, if you're interested.

Quote: Joeman

A soft 12 has a 24% chance of turning into a 21?? Or did I read things wrong?
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When I first saw the numbers, I thought for sure that those couldn't possibly be right - but my simulation matches the results.

Remember, you are playing a "hit on everything below 21, including a hard 20" strategy.

Quote: ThatDonGuy

<snip>Remember, you are playing a "hit on everything below 21, including a hard 20" strategy.
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ThatDonGuy,

Why? Did I miss something in the thread that specifies this?

When I read the original post, I thought the poster was assuming Basic Strategy.

Dog Hand

I had a quick look at infinite decks and can see that the 24.21% figure is based on hitting everything else until you bust or get 21. Similarly the 42.78% is hitting until you either reach 21 or 20 (each has a chance of 21.39%).
If you hit soft 18 but otherwise play as regular...

Bust	29.054%
21	17.495%
20	17.495%
19	17.495%
18	8.924%
17	9.536%

If you stand on soft 18 but hit soft 17...

Bust	26.690%
21	16.254%
20	16.254%
19	16.254%
18	16.254%
17	8.295%

This sounds like a Bingo Blackjack question. I was surprised to see how often you hit to aces instead of splitting in that game. However, you always split when the target is 21.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/bingo-blackjack/

Quote: Mental

This sounds like a Bingo Blackjack question. I was surprised to see how often you hit to aces instead of splitting in that game. However, you always split when the target is 21.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/bingo-blackjack/
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I looked at this a while ago but in that version only the first hand paid, there were some interesting splits depending on the multiplier. But I agree that you split A-A when going for 21.

I imagine you split more often if either/both hands could win the sidebet, although for say 18 you might not split 4s. Similar to Lightning Blackjack, it's impossible to work out the House Edge without knowing the probabilities for each option, but, like that game, you vary your strategy according to the target/payout. The advantage of a lower target is that it doesn't cost much to stand and if you're over you stick to basic strategy, except splits. The problem with higher targets is that you sometimes have to sacrifice your BJ bet by "going for it". Similarly it's going to be worth splitting some winning hands, e.g. 10s.
EDIT: I see the side bet isn't a "side-bet" but adjusts the payable odds for a winning hand. So this may change the obvious strategy as you need to win to benefit from the enhanced odds.

As an aside I imagine the game rules would also define whether you are allowed to play for the side-bet payout if the dealer has BJ. whether you can split unequal pictures and whether you can hit soft 21/Blackjack.

2nd EDIT : I've created a thread for "Bingo Blackjack" - https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/38278-bingo-blackjack/#post889913

Quote: charliepatrick

Quote: Mental

This sounds like a Bingo Blackjack question. I was surprised to see how often you hit to aces instead of splitting in that game. However, you always split when the target is 21.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/bingo-blackjack/
link to original post

...
As an aside I imagine the game rules would also define whether you are allowed to play for the side-bet payout if the dealer has BJ. whether you can split unequal pictures and whether you can hit soft 21/Blackjack.
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I don't want to hijack this thread if the OP isn't interested in Bingo Blackjack. In the online version, you can split J-Q and you can hit soft 21s. I have done it.

I don't doubt your calculation. But to be sure if you have 19 you stop and if you have 20 you stop ditto at 21. I thought the results were not bad. And we know, aces should always be split!
Except in Europe against a dealers ace.

I play BJ in Europe so it would be nice what my chances are when the dealer has an ace against my aces.