BJ007
• Posts: 7
Joined: May 30, 2023
May 30th, 2023 at 10:14:34 AM permalink
Question for the wiz. If you have AA in blackjack what is the chance of making a total of 19, 20 or 21? The aces are not split.
6 deck.
Last edited by: BJ007 on May 30, 2023
rsactuary
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May 30th, 2023 at 10:18:10 AM permalink
Q1: Are you splitting them or just hitting?
Dieter
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May 30th, 2023 at 10:46:14 AM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Q1: Are you splitting them or just hitting?

I'm assuming that the aces are not split.
May the cards fall in your favor.
billryan
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May 30th, 2023 at 12:11:18 PM permalink
Would it depend on the decks used? Two cards removed from fifty would seem different than two cards removed from three hundred plus.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
charliepatrick
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May 30th, 2023 at 12:16:13 PM permalink
If you're playing in the UK (i.e. no peeking) you do not split Aces vs A; so you also hit soft 18 (e.g. AA6). Thus this will make is slightly more likely you could get to 19-21. I guess you could also reach the re-split limit, but imagine you wouldn't be allowed to hit AA (in the UK there isn't a split limit). Alternatviely you've run out of money so are having to hit AA - in which case you hit soft 18 vs 9, T, A.
BJ007
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May 30th, 2023 at 3:19:51 PM permalink
Yes, indeed it depends on the decks used. Let us say we use a 6 deck.
BJ007
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May 30th, 2023 at 3:28:28 PM permalink
Indeed.
ThatDonGuy
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May 31st, 2023 at 4:18:46 PM permalink
Here's what I get, assuming you are working from a full shoe:

6 decks:
19 or better: 56.861597%
20 or better: 42.677569%
21: 24.080293%

8 decks:
19 or better: 56.874842%
20 or better: 42.703627%
21: 24.112172%
BJ007
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May 31st, 2023 at 11:58:51 PM permalink
Thanks for your effort. Did you do a mathematical calculation or a simulation?
Joeman
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June 1st, 2023 at 5:03:28 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

Here's what I get, assuming you are working from a full shoe:

6 decks:
19 or better: 56.861597%
20 or better: 42.677569%
21: 24.080293%

8 decks:
19 or better: 56.874842%
20 or better: 42.703627%
21: 24.112172%

A soft 12 has a 24% chance of turning into a 21?? Or did I read things wrong?
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ThatDonGuy
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June 1st, 2023 at 5:04:14 PM permalink
Quote: BJ007

Thanks for your effort. Did you do a mathematical calculation or a simulation?

The way I crunch numbers around here? Both, just to be sure. I may have exact fractions around here somewhere, if you're interested.

Quote: Joeman

A soft 12 has a 24% chance of turning into a 21?? Or did I read things wrong?

When I first saw the numbers, I thought for sure that those couldn't possibly be right - but my simulation matches the results.

Remember, you are playing a "hit on everything below 21, including a hard 20" strategy.
DogHand
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June 1st, 2023 at 10:22:59 PM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

<snip>Remember, you are playing a "hit on everything below 21, including a hard 20" strategy.

ThatDonGuy,

Why? Did I miss something in the thread that specifies this?

When I read the original post, I thought the poster was assuming Basic Strategy.

Dog Hand
charliepatrick
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June 2nd, 2023 at 1:07:05 AM permalink
I had a quick look at infinite decks and can see that the 24.21% figure is based on hitting everything else until you bust or get 21. Similarly the 42.78% is hitting until you either reach 21 or 20 (each has a chance of 21.39%).
If you hit soft 18 but otherwise play as regular...
 Bust 29.054% 21 17.495% 20 17.495% 19 17.495% 18 8.924% 17 9.536%
If you stand on soft 18 but hit soft 17...
 Bust 26.690% 21 16.254% 20 16.254% 19 16.254% 18 16.254% 17 8.295%
Mental
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June 2nd, 2023 at 7:54:05 AM permalink
This sounds like a Bingo Blackjack question. I was surprised to see how often you hit to aces instead of splitting in that game. However, you always split when the target is 21.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/bingo-blackjack/
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charliepatrick
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June 2nd, 2023 at 10:52:22 AM permalink
Quote: Mental

This sounds like a Bingo Blackjack question. I was surprised to see how often you hit to aces instead of splitting in that game. However, you always split when the target is 21.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/bingo-blackjack/

I looked at this a while ago but in that version only the first hand paid, there were some interesting splits depending on the multiplier. But I agree that you split A-A when going for 21.

I imagine you split more often if either/both hands could win the sidebet, although for say 18 you might not split 4s. Similar to Lightning Blackjack, it's impossible to work out the House Edge without knowing the probabilities for each option, but, like that game, you vary your strategy according to the target/payout. The advantage of a lower target is that it doesn't cost much to stand and if you're over you stick to basic strategy, except splits. The problem with higher targets is that you sometimes have to sacrifice your BJ bet by "going for it". Similarly it's going to be worth splitting some winning hands, e.g. 10s.
EDIT: I see the side bet isn't a "side-bet" but adjusts the payable odds for a winning hand. So this may change the obvious strategy as you need to win to benefit from the enhanced odds.

As an aside I imagine the game rules would also define whether you are allowed to play for the side-bet payout if the dealer has BJ. whether you can split unequal pictures and whether you can hit soft 21/Blackjack.

2nd EDIT : I've created a thread for "Bingo Blackjack" - https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/blackjack/38278-bingo-blackjack/#post889913
Last edited by: charliepatrick on Jun 2, 2023
Mental
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June 2nd, 2023 at 12:02:05 PM permalink
Quote: charliepatrick

Quote: Mental

This sounds like a Bingo Blackjack question. I was surprised to see how often you hit to aces instead of splitting in that game. However, you always split when the target is 21.

https://wizardofodds.com/games/bingo-blackjack/

...
As an aside I imagine the game rules would also define whether you are allowed to play for the side-bet payout if the dealer has BJ. whether you can split unequal pictures and whether you can hit soft 21/Blackjack.

I don't want to hijack this thread if the OP isn't interested in Bingo Blackjack. In the online version, you can split J-Q and you can hit soft 21s. I have done it.
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BJ007