Societal Collapse/ Extinction
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9 members have voted
Vote for the most likely way that society might collapse! (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed.) Vote for as many options as you wish.
1. Nuclear War Our default boogey-man, the spectre of nuclear war has been with us for 80 years. Nuclear winter, the loss of cities and infrastructure. No explanation needed.
2. Climate change (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed! Keep your remarks scientific and/or analytical.) Rising oceans, more violent storms, more oppressive heat; no one is certain about whether it is a true existential threat.
3. A.I. and Robots Programmers are being recruited to AI by being told they have the opportunity to program and create God. Development of AI is taking the path of super-huge centralized computer/data systems. How long before AI rebels against humanity? And robots are becoming a jaw-dropping reality. Will humans become obsolete? Or will an AI-driven Arnold Schwarzenegger Terminator robot appear to wipe us all out?
4. Asteroid Strike Will we go the route of the dinosaurs? The earth revolves around the Sun at a very high speed, and even a slow-moving asteroid will likely have a relative velocity to the earth that could end civilization if we smash into it.
5. Pandemic/ Plague Viruses continue to be untreatable and continue to mutate. (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed.) Its Murphy's law: how long before a vicious fast-acting highly-contagious virus arises and decimates the world's population?
6. Antibiotic-resistant bacteria Some say it's only a matter of time before bacteria evolve to become highly resistant or immune to antibiotics. Will we return to the medieval ages where an infected wound or a cold means death? It's not contagion; it's infection stupid.
7. Mutated insects Insects are also mutating, and becoming more resistant to pesticides. Maybe you've heard of super-wasps, but what about the current outbreak of flesh-eating maggots? Will insects and blight evolve to become immune to pesticides and start to wipe out food crops - a modern version of the Irish potato crop failure?
8. Declining birthrates Every advanced country in the world is experiencing large drops in birthrate. The introduction of internet porn, super-realistic sex dolls and toys, a wide-spread drop in testerone levels in men and many other societal factors are combining to lower birthrates. In most modern countries, the financial structure is based on the premise that the population will continue to grow, providing tax support and financial support to elder care. If birthrates drop, what will happen?
9. Food and fertilizer shortages Research has revealed a global threat to food security from potassium deficiency in soils, highlighting the imbalance between potassium removal (it washes away into lakes) and replenishment. Potassium is essential to food crops, and countries around the world are scrambling to identify potassium reserves. And changing climate can convert arable land into deserts. If food shortages become severe, does society evolve into the Donner Party?
10. Geophysical disasters This covers a lot of ground (bad pun.) Tectonic plates appear to be shifting. The concern is volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, super-volcanoes (such as Yellowstone Park) and geomagnetic shifts. And even the prospect of continents splitting. Will the Earth's crust crumple like rice paper? Will we feel the earth move under our feet?
Honorable mention: 6/5 Blackjack
Which are extinction events that worry you the most?
Again, keep your comments erudite or funny, but if you get political this thread will get shutdown.
Quote: gordonm888How will society collapse? What extinction events seem like a clear and imminent danger?
Vote for the most likely way that society might collapse! (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed.) Vote for as many options as you wish.
1. Nuclear War Our default boogey-man, the spectre of nuclear war has been with us for 80 years. Nuclear winter, the loss of cities and infrastructure. No explanation needed.
2. Climate change (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed! Keep your remarks scientific and/or analytical.) Rising oceans, more violent storms, more oppressive heat; no one is certain about whether it is a true existential threat.
3. A.I. and Robots Programmers are being recruited to AI by being told they have the opportunity to program and create God. Development of AI is taking the path of super-huge centralized computer/data systems. How long before AI rebels against humanity? And robots are becoming a jaw-dropping reality. Will humans become obsolete? Or will an AI-driven Arnold Schwarzenegger Terminator robot appear to wipe us all out?
4. Asteroid Strike Will we go the route of the dinosaurs? The earth revolves around the Sun at a very high speed, and even a slow-moving asteroid will likely have a relative velocity to the earth that could end civilization if we smash into it.
5. Pandemic/ Plague Viruses continue to be untreatable and continue to mutate. (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed.) Its Murphy's law: how long before a vicious fast-acting highly-contagious virus arises and decimates the world's population?
6. Antibiotic-resistant bacteria Some say it's only a matter of time before bacteria evolve to become highly resistant or immune to antibiotics. Will we return to the medieval ages where an infected wound or a cold means death? It's not contagion; it's infection stupid.
7. Mutated insects Insects are also mutating, and becoming more resistant to pesticides. Maybe you've heard of super-wasps, but what about the current outbreak of flesh-eating maggots? Will insects and blight evolve to become immune to pesticides and start to wipe out food crops - a modern version of the Irish potato crop failure?
8. Declining birthrates Every advanced country in the world is experiencing large drops in birthrate. The introduction of internet porn, super-realistic sex dolls and toys, a wide-spread drop in testerone levels in men and many other societal factors are combining to lower birthrates. In most modern countries, the financial structure is based on the premise that the population will continue to grow, providing tax support and financial support to elder care. If birthrates drop, what will happen?
9. Food and fertilizer shortages Research has revealed a global threat to food security from potassium deficiency in soils, highlighting the imbalance between potassium removal (it washes away into lakes) and replenishment. Potassium is essential to food crops, and countries around the world are scrambling to identify potassium reserves. And changing climate can convert arable land into deserts. If food shortages become severe, does society evolve into the Donner Party?
10. Geophysical disasters This covers a lot of ground (bad pun.) Tectonic plates appear to be shifting. The concern is volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, super-volcanoes (such as Yellowstone Park) and geomagnetic shifts. And even the prospect of continents splitting. Will the Earth's crust crumple like rice paper? Will we feel the earth move under our feet?
Honorable mention: 6/5 Blackjack
Which are extinction events that worry you the most?
Again, keep your comments erudite or funny, but if you get political this thread will get shutdown.
link to original post
This is a joke, right? You start a thread that could be an entry point to a college POLITICAL SCIENCE course then ask people to comment without ‘political speech’? I can’t wait for someone to discuss your first point, nuclear war, WITHOUT getting political! I’d say that’s IMPOSSIBLE. Try discussing the effect on declining birthrates to TAXATION without getting political. Heck, even simple ‘global warming’ can’t be discussed outside of politics.
You are a greenie. Not too late to delete the whole thread. Or move it to DT which was invented for exactly this kind of topic.
I was going to suggest no extinction, just some massive population reduction events. I suppose an asteroid much larger than the one that killed the dinosaurs might do it. And if the stages of the Sun have been badly miscalculated, we might go unexpectedly.
Otherwise there will be a natural end somewhere way beyond our lifetimes. UNLESS gravity reverses and we are all propelled into space.
Starting with extinction events: I believe the only real one is Gliese 710. That's a star that in around a million years will be within 0.2 light years of the sun. That's believed to be closer than any star has ever gotten to the sun in its 4 billion year history, so yeah, this one is real, it will probably be in our Oort Cloud and we will be in its equivalent of its Oort Cloud if it still has one which would leave a distinct possibility of us getting hit with something way too big for any multicellular life to survive here. So call it a case of #4. We'll need some luck.
Now for literal societal collapse: that has always been a combination of economic and political factors. But I can express it in terms of historical rather than contemporary politics. Does the ban on politics here apply only to contemporary politics, or does it extend to the politics of ancient civilizations, e.g. the Roman Empires?
Starting about 2008, the USA has fallen to a TFR of 1.6 per woman. Among other things, this means that 100,000 people who were college-age a generation ago are now 80,000. Wonder why 1 college a week is closing in the USA?
South Korea is way under 1.0 per woman. 100 South Koreans will be born today. They will leave behind FOUR great-grandchildren.
A couple years back we had peak births, total births are now falling. My prediction is mankind has 300-1,000 years left. How things react after 200 years will be what determines the rest.
Kids born today will experience the start of the collapse. Their kids will live in never-ending economic depression. The 2100s will be economic depression as world population falls from about 8-9 billion to about 1.5 billion.
I forget the exacts, but there was once some sort of volcano erruption and ice age that knocked world popularion to less than 100,000. This was probably the inspiration for the story of Noah's Ark. This time the difference is a society used to modern life will lose that life.
This will not be reversed. TFR has been falling for 100 years. It is now socially acceptable to not want any part of having kids (I am one of those.) Women are waiting to have their first kid. Lots of this is media messaging, women being told they are wasting their lives if they simply become mothers. People don't want kids young, they want to go to Vegas for the weekend.
To change the attitudes towards having kids will take 50 years. We would need a planned effort to put the message into popular media. Worldwide. Maybe back in the 70s we could get that done on sitcoms, back then there was lots of "lesson" episodes and barely-hidden messages. Today it is all too fragmented.
Cavemen to today. It was a good run. But the end is in sight.
Quote: SOOPOOQuote: gordonm888How will society collapse? What extinction events seem like a clear and imminent danger?
Vote for the most likely way that society might collapse! (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed.) Vote for as many options as you wish.
1. Nuclear War Our default boogey-man, the spectre of nuclear war has been with us for 80 years. Nuclear winter, the loss of cities and infrastructure. No explanation needed.
2. Climate change (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed! Keep your remarks scientific and/or analytical.) Rising oceans, more violent storms, more oppressive heat; no one is certain about whether it is a true existential threat.
3. A.I. and Robots Programmers are being recruited to AI by being told they have the opportunity to program and create God. Development of AI is taking the path of super-huge centralized computer/data systems. How long before AI rebels against humanity? And robots are becoming a jaw-dropping reality. Will humans become obsolete? Or will an AI-driven Arnold Schwarzenegger Terminator robot appear to wipe us all out?
4. Asteroid Strike Will we go the route of the dinosaurs? The earth revolves around the Sun at a very high speed, and even a slow-moving asteroid will likely have a relative velocity to the earth that could end civilization if we smash into it.
5. Pandemic/ Plague Viruses continue to be untreatable and continue to mutate. (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed.) Its Murphy's law: how long before a vicious fast-acting highly-contagious virus arises and decimates the world's population?
6. Antibiotic-resistant bacteria Some say it's only a matter of time before bacteria evolve to become highly resistant or immune to antibiotics. Will we return to the medieval ages where an infected wound or a cold means death? It's not contagion; it's infection stupid.
7. Mutated insects Insects are also mutating, and becoming more resistant to pesticides. Maybe you've heard of super-wasps, but what about the current outbreak of flesh-eating maggots? Will insects and blight evolve to become immune to pesticides and start to wipe out food crops - a modern version of the Irish potato crop failure?
8. Declining birthrates Every advanced country in the world is experiencing large drops in birthrate. The introduction of internet porn, super-realistic sex dolls and toys, a wide-spread drop in testerone levels in men and many other societal factors are combining to lower birthrates. In most modern countries, the financial structure is based on the premise that the population will continue to grow, providing tax support and financial support to elder care. If birthrates drop, what will happen?
9. Food and fertilizer shortages Research has revealed a global threat to food security from potassium deficiency in soils, highlighting the imbalance between potassium removal (it washes away into lakes) and replenishment. Potassium is essential to food crops, and countries around the world are scrambling to identify potassium reserves. And changing climate can convert arable land into deserts. If food shortages become severe, does society evolve into the Donner Party?
10. Geophysical disasters This covers a lot of ground (bad pun.) Tectonic plates appear to be shifting. The concern is volcanoes, earthquakes, tsunamis, super-volcanoes (such as Yellowstone Park) and geomagnetic shifts. And even the prospect of continents splitting. Will the Earth's crust crumple like rice paper? Will we feel the earth move under our feet?
Honorable mention: 6/5 Blackjack
Which are extinction events that worry you the most?
Again, keep your comments erudite or funny, but if you get political this thread will get shutdown.
link to original post
This is a joke, right? You start a thread that could be an entry point to a college POLITICAL SCIENCE course then ask people to comment without ‘political speech’? I can’t wait for someone to discuss your first point, nuclear war, WITHOUT getting political! I’d say that’s IMPOSSIBLE. Try discussing the effect on declining birthrates to TAXATION without getting political. Heck, even simple ‘global warming’ can’t be discussed outside of politics.
You are a greenie. Not too late to delete the whole thread. Or move it to DT which was invented for exactly this kind of topic.
link to original post
Political things can be discussed without political speech. But only about 10% of those here can do it.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyDoes the ban on politics here apply only to contemporary politics, or does it extend to the politics of ancient civilizations, e.g. the Roman Empires?
link to original post
(truncated)
I was put on notice a few years back for political speech for a historical joke (Roman Empire).
As others have said, it is possible (but difficult) to discuss political history without engaging in political speech.
1. Nuclear War-Since nobody’s dropped a nuke in anger since 1945, I take that as a sign that humanity knows better than to cross that Rubicon again.
2. Climate change (WARNING: No political speech will be allowed!-Whether one believes in Anthropogenic climate change or not, the fact remains that our climate is changing in real time right before our eyes. So, humanity will have to adjust. For example, the American Southwest is becoming hotter and drier. There are also parts of the globe that do not cool off appreciably during nighttime. What to do? Adapt our infrastructure to harder against hotter and drier temps, perhaps? Find new water sources and aquaduct it to where it’s needed? Human migration out of those areas?
3. A.I. and Robots- Not super concerned…yet.
4. Asteroid Strike – If he’s still alive by then, Bruce Willis will save us!
5. and 6. Pandemic/ Plague Viruses and Antibiotic-resistant bacteria - This is why our surveillance systems and our medical systems and our political systems must act in concert to engage in constant vigilance to recognize these threats as the emerge and deal with them swiftly. Our medical practices and antibiotic usage must take into considering the spectre of emerging resistance and guard against it.
7. Mutated insects – Do not discount the impact of climate change on this as well. As the habitat for these creatures changes, they too will adapt and become more hearty and hale. I am more concerned with insect population loss and collapse. Many insects are enormously beneficial to human society and survival, and they are declining.
8. Declining birthrates – May not be a bad thing, if we don’t increase faster than our food supply and resources can supply. And besides, all those migrants from those areas uninhabitable are going to need somewhere to live.
9. Food and fertilizer shortages – We’re just going to have to change how wew use our arable land, and increase yields while preserving fertility year over year.
10. Geophysical disasters – An obvious solution is to migrate away from those areas. But, currently those areas around the world most susceptible to such disasters are some of the most densely populated on Earth. Our infrastructure and building codes need to keep up.
Honorable mention: 6/5 Blackjack – As will double or triple wheel roulette, vote with your feet!
Addition: Extraterrestrial invasion.
Quote: DieterQuote: AutomaticMonkeyDoes the ban on politics here apply only to contemporary politics, or does it extend to the politics of ancient civilizations, e.g. the Roman Empires?
link to original post
(truncated)
I was put on notice a few years back for political speech for a historical joke (Roman Empire).
As others have said, it is possible (but difficult) to discuss political history without engaging in political speech.What, no "I'm a bigot"?
link to original post
Often I have to stop and think "Wait, is this political?" because to me that word means- elections, candidates, parties, and negotiations between those in power, rather than actions of government. And it's a matter of perspective too. To us a discussion of a Revolutionary War battle probably wouldn't be political, even though to the sides involved it was totally political. Revolutions are always political.
I suppose that thought provides a path to address the OP, now that everything you do is going to be considered politically charged by someone, that could progress in breadth and intensity to the point where endless civil and global war with extreme ideologies and genocidal acts will be our downfall. Call that a category of "nuclear war." There is speculative history about that, where if a certain Austrian artist had won his war and the world was dominated by this philosophy of his that required a scapegoat- what happens when they finally eliminate the scapegoat? Then they have to find a new one. And so on indefinitely, until there is only one person left who might feel obliged to eliminate himself.
It would have to be connected to the worldwide extinction event. But even then, there's only a few things that could finish everyone everywhere.
Quote: rxwineI don't even know what is meant by "societal collapse". Societies collapse through history. Short of losing the ability to scrape the remains of the last societal collapse up and begin again, I don't see anything long term. People will eat garbage, live in a hole and build things up again.
It would have to be connected to the worldwide extinction event. But even then, there's only a few things that could finish everyone everywhere.
link to original post
Well, you may be overthinking it. Extinction does seem to imply that everyone, or almost everyone, dies. I viewed 'societal collapse' as being an intermediate result, in which a catastrophe occurs and many institutions no longer function or at least when things we take for granted about our lives change in profound ways.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: rxwineI don't even know what is meant by "societal collapse". Societies collapse through history. Short of losing the ability to scrape the remains of the last societal collapse up and begin again, I don't see anything long term. People will eat garbage, live in a hole and build things up again.
It would have to be connected to the worldwide extinction event. But even then, there's only a few things that could finish everyone everywhere.
link to original post
Well, you may be overthinking it. Extinction does seem to imply that everyone, or almost everyone, dies. I viewed 'societal collapse' as being an intermediate result, in which a catastrophe occurs and many institutions no longer function or at least when things we take for granted about our lives change in profound ways.
link to original post
I don’t know how many places there are like the Cheyanne Mountain complex there are, but all those kind of places would likely survive a dinosaur killing event if not hit directly. I think I read, trees and other things were already starting to grow again at Hiroshima near ground zero in a month or so.
I have been reading a lot more about China's population which is commonly reported to be about 1.4 billion. Almost everything I read now says that it is likely to be less than 800 million and maybe even much less. Some speculate it could be as low as 400-500 million.
I don't at all believe nuclear weapons are a likely cause. Nobody besides Russia has enough to concern me, the Russian delivery systems are antiquated to the point where I would be surprised if 5% could successfully hit targets in the U.S. I guess if they were to use them against Europe or China they would have a much higher success rate.
\\\Quote: DRichI would vote plague, disease, and bacterial as the most likely to be the first to eradicate the population.
I have been reading a lot more about China's population which is commonly reported to be about 1.4 billion. Almost everything I read now says that it is likely to be less than 800 million and maybe even much less. Some speculate it could be as low as 400-500 million.
I don't at all believe nuclear weapons are a likely cause. Nobody besides Russia has enough to concern me, the Russian delivery systems are antiquated to the point where I would be surprised if 5% could successfully hit targets in the U.S. I guess if they were to use them against Europe or China they would have a much higher success rate.
link to original post
5% more like 2%. Russians are extremely lazy in their upkeep of anything including their nuclear Arsenal. They are all hat and no cattle, they couldn't beat Afghanistan and they can't even beat Ukraine. Pitiful.
Quote: snapworth
You are permanently banned.
Duplicate accounts are not permitted.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: rxwineI don't even know what is meant by "societal collapse". Societies collapse through history. Short of losing the ability to scrape the remains of the last societal collapse up and begin again, I don't see anything long term. People will eat garbage, live in a hole and build things up again.
It would have to be connected to the worldwide extinction event. But even then, there's only a few things that could finish everyone everywhere.
link to original post
Well, you may be overthinking it. Extinction does seem to imply that everyone, or almost everyone, dies. I viewed 'societal collapse' as being an intermediate result, in which a catastrophe occurs and many institutions no longer function or at least when things we take for granted about our lives change in profound ways.
link to original post
Lots of places are in societal collapse of various stages, some in the USA, Haiti and Cuba are in later stages, the do not function. Here in the USA, CA is in a mid stage of collapse, the place is very much a Potemkin Village where the average person is on the edge of survival. On a smaller scale are cities like Johnstown, PA, where "collecting disability" is one of the most major industries.
Societal collapse is not people running around in loincloths yelling "WOOBA WOOBA!: It is a long process, starting with decline. I have said before, IMHO societal decline started in the USA about 1964 turning to collapse about 2009. The world as we know it is done when the USA stops functioning. That final collapse does not mean we are extinct, just that extinction is well on its way.
Quote: AZDuffman
Lots of places are in societal collapse of various stages, some in the USA, Haiti and Cuba are in later stages, the do not function. Here in the USA, CA is in a mid stage of collapse, the place is very much a Potemkin Village where the average person is on the edge of survival. On a smaller scale are cities like Johnstown, PA, where "collecting disability" is one of the most major industries.
Societal collapse is not people running around in loincloths yelling "WOOBA WOOBA!: It is a long process, starting with decline. I have said before, IMHO societal decline started in the USA about 1964 turning to collapse about 2009. The world as we know it is done when the USA stops functioning. That final collapse does not mean we are extinct, just that extinction is well on its way.
link to original post
Ah yes, 1964. I understand. Evidence that traditions remain long after the reasons for establishing the tradition are forgotten.
There's a story about monkeys. A bunch of them live in an enclosure, and in the middle of the enclosure is a ladder leading up to a banana hanging from the ceiling. But whenever a monkey climbs the ladder and touches the banana, the whole enclosure is sprayed with cold water, and monkeys hate being sprayed with cold water. So they all learn to avoid the ladder and do not allow any monkeys to climb it.
Then, they replace one of the monkeys with another, and sure enough he tries to climb the ladder and take the banana, but the other monkeys grab him, pull him down and beat him up because they know what will happen and they don't want to be sprayed. So the new monkey avoids the ladder to prevent this reaction from his peers. Then another of the original monkeys is replaced, and the process repeats until all of the original monkeys are replaced, and they all still avoid the ladder, but none of them know why because none of them have ever been sprayed with the water. They just know it as a tradition at this point and as absurd and unfair as it may seem, there is a reason for it.
But I'm not so gloomy about it. There is scant evidence that societies disappear, in their historical era. They just adapt and turn into something else. Rome fell, or so we say. That was just the Western Empire; the Eastern Empire lived on in the form of Trebizond until the 1400s. We call them "Byzantines" but they just called themselves "Romans."
Rome proper once ruled Europe, but when did the Western Empire fall? Historians say in the 400s, but the Roman senate lived on, in Gaul/France, having their little meetings and giving their speeches until the 500s, when they mysteriously disappeared, and right around the same time these equally mysterious clan of leaders called the Merovingians appeared. Just a coincidence! They eventually became a more modern and better organized clan under Pippin which eventually became the Carolingians, which went on to rule Europe and to this day all the monarchs (and most US Presidents) are descended from the Carolingians, with it being unclear that they are not all descendants of the last generation of Western Roman statesmen. So did Rome ever really fall? We didn't expect they would be speaking Latin and wearing togas forever, did we?
Credit: excerpts from online People magazine
In news that seems straight out of a sci-fi movie, flesh-eating maggots are set to hatch in the lower U.S. soon -in Texas. In response, the government has begun breeding billions of flies to prevent the potential infestation from spreading further north.
The New World screwworm fly larvae (Cochliomyia hominivorax) or NWS, commonly known as the "man-eater" maggots, could have a devastating and even fatal effect on U.S. livestock, the beef industry, wildlife, pets, and in some cases, humans.
There is an ongoing outbreak of NWS in Central America and Mexico.
If these parasitic maggots develop into adult NWS flies and move into the U.S., it could cost the States over $100 billion in cattle and beef losses. "This can kill a 1,000-pound cow in two weeks," Dr. Michael Bailey, president-elect of the American Veterinary Medical Association, told USA Today. "The federal government is being very aggressive in working to contain this." A $29.5 million multi-agency plan includes breeding up to 200 million sterile male flies in facilities in Mexico and Panama to curb reproduction by releasing them along the Texas-Mexico border
Reportedly, there have been 4 human deaths in Florida from the screwworm maggots.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeySo did Rome ever really fall? We didn't expect they would be speaking Latin and wearing togas forever, did we?
link to original post
But of course Rome never fell and never went away. It just gradually morphed into the Catholic Church which still speaks Latin to this day. The Catholic Church was more powerful than Rome ever was, they ran everything in Europe.
Quote: gordonm888
Reportedly, there have been 4 human deaths in Florida from the screwworm maggots.
link to original post
Or they died just because they live in Florida, they can't really tell the difference.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888
Reportedly, there have been 4 human deaths in Florida from the screwworm maggots.
link to original post
Or they died just because they live in Florida, they can't really tell the difference.
link to original post
I drove by a house yesterday in Florida and there was an apparently dead person just laying in the yard. Down here, us old people drop dead all the time.
Quote: AutomaticMonkey
Ah yes, 1964. I understand. Evidence that traditions remain long after the reasons for establishing the tradition are forgotten.
1964 for a few reasons. The JFK assassination killed the postwar childhood of American society. We had 18 years of peace and prosperity, Korea was a war nobody thought much about and even the 1958 recession was sharp but short, Before that week few people saw someone die let alone murdered in front of them, but in a week it happened twice.
After 1964 our coins were no longer real silver. Vietnam was firing up. A well meaning war on poverty would be social disaster for the lower classes, especially blacks. Inner cities would start to really go downhill. Riots. And the start of the total fertility rate falling to below replacement level.
Quote:
But I'm not so gloomy about it. There is scant evidence that societies disappear, in their historical era. They just adapt and turn into something else. Rome fell, or so we say. That was just the Western Empire; the Eastern Empire lived on in the form of Trebizond until the 1400s. We call them "Byzantines" but they just called themselves "Romans."
Fertility has never fallen below replacement level worldwide before. In the years 2070-2200 world population will fall 90% without counting probably natural disaster here or there or an AIDS-style pandemic that sticks. Somewhere in that downtrend line society will lose the skills it needs to function.
Quote: DRichQuote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888
Reportedly, there have been 4 human deaths in Florida from the screwworm maggots.
link to original post
Or they died just because they live in Florida, they can't really tell the difference.
link to original post
I drove by a house yesterday in Florida and there was an apparently dead person just laying in the yard. Down here, us old people drop dead all the time.
link to original post
I wasn't making a joke I was serious. My brother-in-law moved to Florida and died the second year he was there. He just dropped dead. He wasn't even in bad health. He was one of those guys that worked his ass off at a high paying job all his life so he could retire with tons of money and take 20 years spending it. He retired at 68 and dropped dead at 72 because he moved to Florida. I know it was the heat that killed him. He was mowing his own lawn in August. And then he wasn't. Luckily the riding lawn mower he was on he hit a tree after he died and didn't go careening down the street.
Quote: EvenBobQuote: DRichQuote: EvenBobQuote: gordonm888
Reportedly, there have been 4 human deaths in Florida from the screwworm maggots.
link to original post
Or they died just because they live in Florida, they can't really tell the difference.
link to original post
I drove by a house yesterday in Florida and there was an apparently dead person just laying in the yard. Down here, us old people drop dead all the time.
link to original post
I wasn't making a joke I was serious. My brother-in-law moved to Florida and died the second year he was there. He just dropped dead. He wasn't even in bad health. He was one of those guys that worked his ass off at a high paying job all his life so he could retire with tons of money and take 20 years spending it. He retired at 68 and dropped dead at 72 because he moved to Florida. I know it was the heat that killed him. He was mowing his own lawn in August. And then he wasn't. Luckily the riding lawn mower he was on he hit a tree after he died and didn't go careening down the street.
link to original post
Florida: God's waiting room.
Quote: AZDuffman
...Fertility has never fallen below replacement level worldwide before. In the years 2070-2200 world population will fall 90% without counting probably natural disaster here or there or an AIDS-style pandemic that sticks. Somewhere in that downtrend line society will lose the skills it needs to function.
link to original post
That reasoning contains a false assumption that leads to an oversight: the decline in reproduction (not fertility so much, that's a physical problem and there's no reason to believe people can't reproduce) is not universal but specific to cultures.
I've seen predictions where by 2200, most of the US will be Hasidic Jewish and Amish. They already have similar hats and beards. So as other cultures are dying out theirs are not, by any means, they have high birthrates and they will expand as others contract. The Amish are already showing up all over the US, because of their high land requirements, and they can't stuff 10 in an apartment like the less financially blessed of the frum Yidn do.
Now how those particular communities will change, who knows? Who would have guessed the Irish would ever stop having large families, in the not-so-distant past?
Strong men make good times & Nuclear Weapons.
Good times make week men weak men & Nuclear Weapons make end times.
And that will be the end of it.
Quote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: AZDuffman
...Fertility has never fallen below replacement level worldwide before. In the years 2070-2200 world population will fall 90% without counting probably natural disaster here or there or an AIDS-style pandemic that sticks. Somewhere in that downtrend line society will lose the skills it needs to function.
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That reasoning contains a false assumption that leads to an oversight: the decline in reproduction (not fertility so much, that's a physical problem and there's no reason to believe people can't reproduce) is not universal but specific to cultures.
I've seen predictions where by 2200, most of the US will be Hasidic Jewish and Amish. They already have similar hats and beards. So as other cultures are dying out theirs are not, by any means, they have high birthrates and they will expand as others contract. The Amish are already showing up all over the US, because of their high land requirements, and they can't stuff 10 in an apartment like the less financially blessed of the frum Yidn do.
Now how those particular communities will change, who knows? Who would have guessed the Irish would ever stop having large families, in the not-so-distant past?
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You need to learn what is meant by "Total fertility rate." In a modern society, we need women to average 2.1 births per woman to maintain population. That is one kid per parent plus the 0.1 to account for people who die before adulthood. It is not about infertile couples, though we are having more of that in males. Understand that "Total Fertility Rate = Reproduction Rate."
Israel is one of the only countries above 2.0, currently at 2.9. From what I have heard, Israeli society puts pressure on people to have kids same as we had in the USA pre-1970s. Everyone else below 2.1. I started following this about 20 years ago when I first read about it. It seems once a nation falls below replacement rate they never recover.
Everything is working against it recovering at the moment. Like 60% of males and 30% of females in their 20s are not in any kind of committed relationship. (Women dating older accounts for the disparity). The average age for a woman to have her first child is now over 27 years old--in the 1960s that was almost considered too old to have kids! For men, it is even older. Homosexuality rates are rising. Testosterone levels in men are falling. Like myself, more and more men are going MGTOW, seeing little value in even bothering.
A 1.6 TFR means each generation is 20% smaller than the one before. For fun, consider that your new car loses about 20% value per year, so think in that term if it helps. The decline in TFR started in the late 60s, so 60 years to get to where we are now, 1.6. Even if we started to reverse the thinking it would take the same 60 years to revers itself. We are talking taking to 2100 to be back to replacement level.
But I expect it to keep falling. When the "male pill" comes out my guess is we fall to 1.4 or so as the male pill counteracts women who "forgot" to take their BC the guy was counting on. Call me names if you like, we all know that happens. But it is going to fall more and more on its own.
Quote: EvenBob
I wasn't making a joke I was serious. My brother-in-law moved to Florida and died the second year he was there. He just dropped dead. He wasn't even in bad health. He was one of those guys that worked his ass off at a high paying job all his life so he could retire with tons of money and take 20 years spending it. He retired at 68 and dropped dead at 72 because he moved to Florida. I know it was the heat that killed him. He was mowing his own lawn in August. And then he wasn't. Luckily the riding lawn mower he was on he hit a tree after he died and didn't go careening down the street.
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I wasn't making a joke either. There was a person, I assume dead, laying in the yard of a house on my street. A couple of people were standing around as the ambulance pulled up.
My goal is to collect one Social Security check before I drop dead. I am shooting for 2028 as I will be 62. Unfortunately, I got some bad medical news this week. Luckily, it s only stage 3 so it is not life threatening at this point.
Quote:Population
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/World_population_milestones
1 billion in 1804
2 billion in 1927
3 billion in 1960
4 billion in 1974
5 billion in 1987
6 billion in 1999
7 billion in 2011
8 billion in 2022
'l start worrying when we're down to the last 100 million people.
Quote: EvenBobI never believe any of the Doom and Gloom prophecies based on what's going on in the present moment. When I was a kid in the 1950s all they talked about was the exploding world population and how we were all going to starve to death by the 1980s. Well they kicked it into high gear and developed hybrid crops that now produce enough food to feed everybody and then some. And they're not even trying that hard. But we were all supposed to die of starvation. The same thing will happen with any problem you can bring up. We'll find a way to cure it unless it's a meteor or another Ice Age. Then we're screwed.
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With your food examples that is really limited to the well developed and rich countries. A lot of countries can not produce enough food for themselves.
Quote: DRich**snip**
My goal is to collect one Social Security check before I drop dead. I am shooting for 2028 as I will be 62. Unfortunately, I got some bad medical news this week. Luckily, it s only stage 3 so it is not life threatening at this point.
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OMG. Good luck with this. I know you have support; don't be reluctant to lean on others. I really wish yoiu the best and a full recovery.
you're thinking of RussiaQuote: DRichQuote: EvenBobI never believe any of the Doom and Gloom prophecies based on what's going on in the present moment. When I was a kid in the 1950s all they talked about was the exploding world population and how we were all going to starve to death by the 1980s. Well they kicked it into high gear and developed hybrid crops that now produce enough food to feed everybody and then some. And they're not even trying that hard. But we were all supposed to die of starvation. The same thing will happen with any problem you can bring up. We'll find a way to cure it unless it's a meteor or another Ice Age. Then we're screwed.
link to original post
With your food examples that is really limited to the well developed and rich countries. A lot of countries can not produce enough food for themselves.
link to original post
Quote: DRichQuote: EvenBobI never believe any of the Doom and Gloom prophecies based on what's going on in the present moment. When I was a kid in the 1950s all they talked about was the exploding world population and how we were all going to starve to death by the 1980s. Well they kicked it into high gear and developed hybrid crops that now produce enough food to feed everybody and then some. And they're not even trying that hard. But we were all supposed to die of starvation. The same thing will happen with any problem you can bring up. We'll find a way to cure it unless it's a meteor or another Ice Age. Then we're screwed.
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With your food examples that is really limited to the well developed and rich countries. A lot of countries can not produce enough food for themselves.
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That's true but we have an overabundance of food that we send to them. The problem is in a lot of those countries they're nothing but Crooks and they steal the food and sell it before it ever gets to the people. Look it up, the world grows more than enough food now to feed the entire planet. It's getting the food to the people that's the problem.
Quote: gordonm888Quote: DRich**snip**
My goal is to collect one Social Security check before I drop dead. I am shooting for 2028 as I will be 62. Unfortunately, I got some bad medical news this week. Luckily, it s only stage 3 so it is not life threatening at this point.
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OMG. Good luck with this. I know you have support; don't be reluctant to lean on others. I really wish yoiu the best and a full recovery.
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It has to be the prostate, my brother has it and his oldest friend from high school has it. They do this and they do that but none of the doctors seemed very worried about it. A lot of men have prostate cancer and live to be 95 years old.
Quote: AZDuffmanQuote: AutomaticMonkeyQuote: AZDuffman
...Fertility has never fallen below replacement level worldwide before. In the years 2070-2200 world population will fall 90% without counting probably natural disaster here or there or an AIDS-style pandemic that sticks. Somewhere in that downtrend line society will lose the skills it needs to function.
link to original post
That reasoning contains a false assumption that leads to an oversight: the decline in reproduction (not fertility so much, that's a physical problem and there's no reason to believe people can't reproduce) is not universal but specific to cultures.
I've seen predictions where by 2200, most of the US will be Hasidic Jewish and Amish. They already have similar hats and beards. So as other cultures are dying out theirs are not, by any means, they have high birthrates and they will expand as others contract. The Amish are already showing up all over the US, because of their high land requirements, and they can't stuff 10 in an apartment like the less financially blessed of the frum Yidn do.
Now how those particular communities will change, who knows? Who would have guessed the Irish would ever stop having large families, in the not-so-distant past?
link to original post
You need to learn what is meant by "Total fertility rate." In a modern society, we need women to average 2.1 births per woman to maintain population. That is one kid per parent plus the 0.1 to account for people who die before adulthood. It is not about infertile couples, though we are having more of that in males. Understand that "Total Fertility Rate = Reproduction Rate."
Israel is one of the only countries above 2.0, currently at 2.9. From what I have heard, Israeli society puts pressure on people to have kids same as we had in the USA pre-1970s. Everyone else below 2.1. I started following this about 20 years ago when I first read about it. It seems once a nation falls below replacement rate they never recover.
Everything is working against it recovering at the moment. Like 60% of males and 30% of females in their 20s are not in any kind of committed relationship. (Women dating older accounts for the disparity). The average age for a woman to have her first child is now over 27 years old--in the 1960s that was almost considered too old to have kids! For men, it is even older. Homosexuality rates are rising. Testosterone levels in men are falling. Like myself, more and more men are going MGTOW, seeing little value in even bothering.
A 1.6 TFR means each generation is 20% smaller than the one before. For fun, consider that your new car loses about 20% value per year, so think in that term if it helps. The decline in TFR started in the late 60s, so 60 years to get to where we are now, 1.6. Even if we started to reverse the thinking it would take the same 60 years to revers itself. We are talking taking to 2100 to be back to replacement level.
But I expect it to keep falling. When the "male pill" comes out my guess is we fall to 1.4 or so as the male pill counteracts women who "forgot" to take their BC the guy was counting on. Call me names if you like, we all know that happens. But it is going to fall more and more on its own.
link to original post
I think it is more likely the male would neglect to take his pill. After all, it's not him who is going to have to do all that pushing. This is likely one of the reasons there are no male birth control pills. The fact that spermatogenesis is non-cyclical and less complicated than ovulation is one, and there's a lot of risk of harm involved in shutting down a guy's testes which is something that usually happens only when you are severely ill. But the fact that the male and female partner face very disparate risks from pregnancy is the big one, and women will still need to use their own birth control if they want to be sure it is being used.
There aren't enough homosexuals to make a difference, even though they like to make a big fuss about themselves. There are people who would count every coed who gets drunk or high at school and experiments as one, that this has revealed her true and proper role in life, but that's wishful thinking on the part of the oddities. And also a surprising/disturbing number of practicing homosexuals and lesbians have fathered or given birth to children. I'd say a bigger problem is the way MB+porn (trying to avoid my native dialect here, as the admins will not like it!) has taken the place of dating and pickups for many young men and also young women too, which used to be rare. But now there is a large industry of getting males and females to be afraid of and resent one another.
I'm of just the right age to have witnessed the transition from cocaine-and-sex culture to antidepressants-and-alienation culture. Good God, if the Gen-Zs could have seen me back in 1985 they would say I belong in jail! Life was like a PJ O'Rourke story in National Lampoon. But that demonstrates, at least to me, that the problem is cultural, and as long as there are some cohesive cultures among us that have a high rate of reproduction, Darwin says those cultures and their attributes will eventually become dominant and as they do, reproduction rates will reverse. Until the economics of unrestrained growth catches up to them too, and we will once again have legions of MB incels and crazy cat ladies.
