The Improbability of AOS
To recap:
losing 30 hands in a row (10 hands each at 3 different tables)
losing to a 9 card dealer 21
Now, this happened yesterday and I think it goes beyond improbable:
As you all may or may not know, I am a divorce attorney in my real life…
I am handling a complex divorce matter and my client's husband is a financially and physically abusive SOB…
I have been on the case for about 8 months thus far and there is even an allegation of bias against the Judge herein (by my client and me)
Ok, so, yesterday, I was working from home on a brief on this case
My home phone rang
I looked at the caller ID and the name that came up was my client's husband's name
I answered the phone and was asked if I heated my home with oil or gas
I replied "Not interested" and hung up
I immediately telephoned my client as NONE of my clients have my home phone number and my home phone number is unlisted
I read her the number and she informed me that it was their home phone number 10 YEARS ago
I notified the other attorney as I am very suspicious of my client's husband
He got back to me and stated that that phone number was a home number for the parties approximately 10 years ago and that his client called their then carrier (ATT) and was informed the phone number was now transferred to a Verizon account…and this new account holder somehow calls my unlisted HOME number from the same number the parties had 10 YEARS ago…with my client's husband's name still coming up on the caller ID...???
Your thoughts…?
What are the odds…?
I screen all my calls anymore via VM.
Quote: onenickelmiracleIf someone wants your phone number, they're going to get it. The pool of people wanting your home phone number wouldn't be so large, combined with the man's name and number, combined with the question wanting to know if you use gas, means you were sent a message. Three likely people wanting to do this, the judge, the attorney, the male client, and maybe a private investigator working for any of the three.
When I dialed it back a recording came on stating the number was not in service.
What message are they sending - that they can find my home number?
Why would they spoof a number my client would recognize and use his actual name?
You're supposed to think they'll blow your house up with the gas would be my thought. Using the old number, they can tell you it's them( or to make you think about whom it could be) and deny it was them because the phone number was not used, not in service. Plausible deniability isn't it.Quote: aceofspadesWhen I dialed it back a recording came on stating the number was not in service.
What message are they sending - that they can find my home number?
Why would they spoof a number my client would recognize and use his actual name?
The services will work with police to identify people using it to harass or threaten people. Maybe you should write down the details of the call of what was said, what time the call came and call the police. They can work on it, work with the phone companies and find out the number which was actually used.
That's exactly what I was thinking.Quote: onenickelmiracleYou're supposed to think they'll blow your house up with the gas would be my thought.
He wanted his own name to show up and spoofed it. He knows you can't prove it's him, you are even thinking its a coincidence (clever way to send a message). Also no real threat was issued and barley implied. Perhaps he wanted to know how all the attorney fees are being spent. Anyone that is abusive as your saying, would be the kind of person to do exactly what he did. People do 10x crazier stuff.
Quote: onenickelmiracleThree likely people wanting to do this, the judge, the attorney, the male client, and maybe a private investigator working for any of the three.
Quote: aceofspadesWhen I dialed it back a recording came on stating the number was not in service.
whoa, I was dismissing the first thought until this.
Quote: AxelWolfPeople do 10x crazier stuff.
That's for sure, and the number not being in service makes the chances of coincidence go from merely astounding to totally astronomical.
On balance, then, my money is on this being a scare tactic. There should be corroborating activity, involving the aggrieved wife more than you yourself, I would think.
Quote: aceofspadesIt is beyond improbable that something like this could or would happen. Having my client's husband's name pop up on caller ID for a phone number the parties had 10 years ago borders on the impossible. This will eventually go in my book :)
Preserve the name on the caller ID and file a police report. If the police say there's nothing they can do, I believe they are still obligated to take the report. Get it on the record in case a pattern develops.
Question..... if you file a police report might you have to recuse yourself from this (probably very lucrative) case?
There are weird coincidences, and this is one of them. If you believe in God, this is a sign, for sure. But if you don't believe in God, let's remember a couple of things.
First, on your home phone, the party who you think is trying to scare you doesn't know that you have caller ID or that you would even pick up the phone. Any member of your family could pick up the phone. Secondly, you own your reaction. That means that different people would react differently. if the call doesn't mean anything, then it has no effect.
That means that your client, if they tried to do this, would have no idea of your reaction and therefore would have no idea of the likely effect the call would have on you. It's a mistake to assume to that your opposing client knows what would freak you out.
My wife would be totally freaked out by that occurrence and blame the party trying to intimidiate. I would chalk it up to coincidence and not give a rat's ass, even telling people what happened as a astronomical anomaly, but it wouldn't scare me into trying to do anything differently.
My ex-wife would pull off some weird crap that freaked out my wife, but my ex-wife had no idea that it would freak her out; she didn't know my wife from Adam. I told my wife that she owned her reaction (that didn't go so well).
Incoming calls from telemarketers are usually spoofed using numbers they know are no longer in service. They got extremely lucky to put a number that you knew.
I can call anyone and make any number show on the phone
there are a million things out there
also there is an ap called trap call- I suggest you get it - it unmasks any blocked number on a cell phone and sends a text with the real number and name
Quote: SOOPOO99 out of a hundred they are trying to scare you. 1 out of a hundred it is that coincidence of coincidences.
Question..... if you file a police report might you have to recuse yourself from this (probably very lucrative) case?
No I would not have to recuse myself from the divorce case because a police report would be criminal
Quote: GWAEwho the hell can remember their home phone number from 10 years ago? Something ain't right. Maybe spoofed?
I can. i remember every phone number I have ever had.
Quote: boymimboIncoming calls from telemarketers are usually spoofed using numbers they know are no longer in service.
If this is true, it is about the only thing that could put coincidence in the realm of realistic possibility, in my book.
Quote: 1BBPreserve the name on the caller ID and file a police report. If the police say there's nothing they can do, I believe they are still obligated to take the report. Get it on the record in case a pattern develops.
Good idea, but anybody can do this sort of mischief.
Quote: DRichI can. i remember every phone number I have ever had.
So can I as well phone numbers and addresses of many friends and relatives from years ago. I remember their license plate numbers, the firing order of V-6 and V-8 engines and I remember many TV commercials word for word. "Crest has been shown to be an effective decay preventive dentifrice".... I also remember hundreds of old songs, their lyrics and who performed them. If I drive somewhere, no matter how long ago, I will never need GPS to return. I'm terrible at math but I can remember a lot of numbers as well as instantly add, subtract, multiply and divide large numbers and groups of numbers.
I never tried to memorize any of this, it' just there in my mind. I'm not too bad at Jeopardy but rarely play.
Quote: strictlyAPvisit spoofcall.com this is very simple to do
I can call anyone and make any number show on the phone
there are a million things out there
also there is an ap called trap call- I suggest you get it - it unmasks any blocked number on a cell phone and sends a text with the real number and name
Maybe the caller did that and used his old number as a fake number? Maybe he was quickly trying to think of a fake number and his old number popped in his head without realizing it?
Quote: aceofspadesOK - something happened to me yesterday that was non-gambling related but brought to mind everyone's dismissive attitude towards events in my life that seem impossible…
To recap:
losing 30 hands in a row (10 hands each at 3 different tables)
losing to a 9 card dealer 21
Now, this happened yesterday and I think it goes beyond improbable:
As you all may or may not know, I am a divorce attorney in my real life…
I am handling a complex divorce matter and my client's husband is a financially and physically abusive SOB…
I have been on the case for about 8 months thus far and there is even an allegation of bias against the Judge herein (by my client and me)
Ok, so, yesterday, I was working from home on a brief on this case
My home phone rang
I looked at the caller ID and the name that came up was my client's husband's name
I answered the phone and was asked if I heated my home with oil or gas
I replied "Not interested" and hung up
I immediately telephoned my client as NONE of my clients have my home phone number and my home phone number is unlisted
I read her the number and she informed me that it was their home phone number 10 YEARS ago
I notified the other attorney as I am very suspicious of my client's husband
He got back to me and stated that that phone number was a home number for the parties approximately 10 years ago and that his client called their then carrier (ATT) and was informed the phone number was now transferred to a Verizon account…and this new account holder somehow calls my unlisted HOME number from the same number the parties had 10 YEARS ago…with my client's husband's name still coming up on the caller ID...???
Your thoughts…?
What are the odds…?
The odd of losing 10 in the row is about 1 in 4 chance per Peter Webb's strike rate formula. The blackjack is a game of near 50/50 (strike rate= near 0.5). I've been such a victim of 10-losses-in-the-row many times. Don't be surprise about the 10 losses in the row. To make you feel better, losing 15 in the row is also a fact of life. The odd of losing 15 in the row is about 1 in 100; thus y'all better get use to it :-)
Webb's strike rate formula:
ExpectedMaxLosingRun = ROUND(LN(1000)/-LN((1-StrikeRatePercent)),0)
What do you use gas or oil? Electric and gas?Quote: aceofspadesI recevied an email FWD from husband's attorney just now purportedly from a Verizon customer service representative stating that the phone number is not currently in use by anyone
Would this be a normal reaction trying to defend against the call compared to just ignoring it. We've determined this not a coincidence, so it's up to you to follow through. Either way just play dumb for now. Once the actual origin can be determined, you can figure out how it benefits you or your client.Quote: aceofspadesI recevied an email FWD from husband's attorney just now purportedly from a Verizon customer service representative stating that the phone number is not currently in use by anyone
not everyoneQuote: aceofspadesbut brought to mind everyone's dismissive attitude towards events in my life that seem impossible…
an event that has to happen to someone at least one time somewhereQuote: aceofspadesTo recap:
losing 30 hands in a row (10 hands each at 3 different tables)
using 1 - (1/e^A)
(a good approximation for large trials and long runs)
e=approximately equal to 2.71828
A=(p^run)*(1+((trials-run)*q))
p=0.4764
(chance to lose that I used. as this increases the probability of a losing streak decreases)
q=1-p
50,000 hands = 1 in 175,034.26
100,000 hands = 1 in 87,492.79
500,000 hands = 1 in 17,495.03
1 million hands = 1 in 8,747.52 (same as calculated)
2 million hands = 1 in 4,373.95
not even close to a 1 in a million type event
boring
but do have fun!
Sally
If I was a divorce attorney I would probably have one anyway.
Quote: rxwineDo you have a bullet proof vest?
.
Ace has bulletproof ab's, he don't need no
stinking vest..
Quote: EvenBobAce has bulletproof ab's, he don't need no
stinking vest..
I wish I could have a steely six-pack on my chest.
Go to google and get these Who Called Me sites that show telemarketers and collection agency callers.
See what queries have been made about that number.... if zilch, then its not likely spoofed and used by sheer chance, it was intentional.
Quote: rxwineDo you have a bullet proof vest?
If I was a divorce attorney I would probably have one anyway.
Quote: EvenBobAce has bulletproof ab's, he don't need no
stinking vest..
Forget about the vest. Carry a gun. If I were Ace, I would carry a gun for self-defense against disgruntled clients. Watch this video. A disgruntled client shot an UNARMED-lawyer (Gerald E. Curry) several times near a courthouse. The reason for the shooting was: "You took my money, and that's what you get!" the shooter (William Strier) said.
Quote: GWAEwho the hell can remember their home phone number from 10 years ago? Something ain't right. Maybe spoofed?
I did occasionally dial my phone number 10 years ago. I don't these days, just tap the smart phone where it says "home". I'm more clear what my number was then than what it is now.
phone account? It's called porting. He could
have done that, maybe.
the only way to decipher is to get police involved-
ace for your own knowledge- if you client has a restarining order agasinst someone anyone can cause a violation of it by calling your client from her ex number and spoofing it-
technology is a bitch
Quote: strictlyAPLike I said earlier - if anyone wants to test it - I can call anyone and make it look like the call is coming from anywhere- its very simple and costs next to nothing-
I'm sure that's what happened. Coincidences
like this only happen in Dickens novels. Men
often hate the lawyer far worse than their
wives in a divorce.
http://www.azcentral.com/opinions/articles/20130205phelps-attorneys-across-nation-face-rising-threats.html
Quote: EvenBobI'm sure that's what happened. Coincidences
like this only happen in Dickens novels. Men
often hate the lawyer far worse than their
wives in a divorce.
http://www.azcentral.com/opinions/articles/20130205phelps-attorneys-across-nation-face-rising-threats.html
I might bring it to the ADA that is prosecuting him for abuse of my client.
Quote: strictlyAPvisit spoofcall.com this is very simple to do
I can call anyone and make any number show on the phone
there are a million things out there
also there is an ap called trap call- I suggest you get it - it unmasks any blocked number on a cell phone and sends a text with the real number and name
Quote: strictlyAPLike I said earlier - if anyone wants to test it - I can call anyone and make it look like the call is coming from anywhere- its very simple and costs next to nothing-
the only way to decipher is to get police involved-
ace for your own knowledge- if you client has a restarining order agasinst someone anyone can cause a violation of it by calling your client from her ex number and spoofing it-
technology is a bitch
Thanks for the heads-up on spoofing. So that's how telemarketers/identity thieves spoof and scam victims with 3rd-party phone numbers such as IRS#, FBI#, DEA#, CIA#, ICE#,eh?
Quote: onenickelmiracleJust call the police. They will figure it out and get to the bottom. The phone company won't work with anyone but them.
HAHAHAHAHAHA. The police will not do anything at all about this. They are too busy writing BS tickets for not completely stopping at a 4 way intersection or going a few MPH over the speed limit at the bottom of a hill.
Quote: bigfoot66The police will not do anything at all about this.
Why would they, what crime was committed.
Telecommunications harassment I see all the time in the newspaper. They must be doing something about something. You are just dead wrong.Quote: bigfoot66HAHAHAHAHAHA. The police will not do anything at all about this. They are too busy writing BS tickets for not completely stopping at a 4 way intersection or going a few MPH over the speed limit at the bottom of a hill.
Ace was forced to respond with the phone call. The horror! I'm absolutely being sarcastic for those who haven't kept up with BobbyO's phone habits and phobias.Quote: EvenBobWhy would they, what crime was committed.
Quote: Dicenor33I'm discovering a lot of new foreign writers. America has distant itself from the old world. If ties were close the way they used to be, I doubt someone will worry about a silly phone call.
I am not intelligent enough to decipher this.
Quote: onenickelmiracleTelecommunications harassment I see all the time in the newspaper.
One call is harassment? Do you live in a one
phone town?
I can't think for you too Evenbob. This has already been explained previously, so nothing new to say.Quote: EvenBobOne call is harassment? Do you live in a one
phone town?
