Demographic Catastrophes
May 29th, 2010 at 7:48:05 PM
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This graph shows how many people were added to the world, historical data is from 1950 to 2010, and predicted data is from 2010 to 2050. Data is shown in raw numbers and in also in percentage.
It's hard to say what a demographic catastrophe really is. Malthus said that we would always breed faster (exponential growth) than our capacity to feed and grow our economy to take care of ourselves. But as he was writing in the early 19th century he could not conceive of birth control, or that one day production could grow exponentially and not linearly. People are arguing if the Malthusian catastrophe must take place.
Other people argue that Malthusian catastrophes are already taking place, when tens of millions of children die from easily preventable diseases.
The graph shows the greatest demographic catastrophe since WWII which was the Great Chinese Famine which occurred between 1958 and 1963. Official government estimates of 15 million dead do not explain the dip in the graph. Researchers generally talk about 36 million dead, but there was also a lot of babies that were not conceived by the suffering parents.
The famine was followed by the peak growth of human population (by percentage) of 2.22% in 1962-63. The peak numbers added (88 million ) would not occur until 1989. Starting in the late 1960's birth control was becoming wildly available to the western world. But clearly the effects of long term killers like AIDs and smaller famines in Africa are reflected. All the wars only have impact on a regional level not on the global scale (since 1950).
AIDS has supposedly killed more people now than the black death of the 14th century, but it is a considerably smaller percentage of the global population.
The prediction for the next 40 years is that basically the number of births per year has leveled off at roughly 130 million per year. However as their are more and more women in the world, this means that the birth rate (and the fertility rate is decreasing). An increasingly aging population has more and more deaths per year from the current 56.5 million increasing to 90.6 million in the year 2050.
Do you think the world will have a demographic catastrophe on the scale of the Chinese famine again? Obviously the curve in the prediction is unable to predict catastrophe, so it smoothly descends for the next 40 years.
It's hard to say what a demographic catastrophe really is. Malthus said that we would always breed faster (exponential growth) than our capacity to feed and grow our economy to take care of ourselves. But as he was writing in the early 19th century he could not conceive of birth control, or that one day production could grow exponentially and not linearly. People are arguing if the Malthusian catastrophe must take place.
Other people argue that Malthusian catastrophes are already taking place, when tens of millions of children die from easily preventable diseases.
The graph shows the greatest demographic catastrophe since WWII which was the Great Chinese Famine which occurred between 1958 and 1963. Official government estimates of 15 million dead do not explain the dip in the graph. Researchers generally talk about 36 million dead, but there was also a lot of babies that were not conceived by the suffering parents.
The famine was followed by the peak growth of human population (by percentage) of 2.22% in 1962-63. The peak numbers added (88 million ) would not occur until 1989. Starting in the late 1960's birth control was becoming wildly available to the western world. But clearly the effects of long term killers like AIDs and smaller famines in Africa are reflected. All the wars only have impact on a regional level not on the global scale (since 1950).
AIDS has supposedly killed more people now than the black death of the 14th century, but it is a considerably smaller percentage of the global population.
The prediction for the next 40 years is that basically the number of births per year has leveled off at roughly 130 million per year. However as their are more and more women in the world, this means that the birth rate (and the fertility rate is decreasing). An increasingly aging population has more and more deaths per year from the current 56.5 million increasing to 90.6 million in the year 2050.
Do you think the world will have a demographic catastrophe on the scale of the Chinese famine again? Obviously the curve in the prediction is unable to predict catastrophe, so it smoothly descends for the next 40 years.
May 29th, 2010 at 9:32:12 PM
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It may be easier to discuss just the Western Hemisphere
This graph is of births in the Western Hemisphere which total around 16 million. They are divided between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America (USA & Canada).
This graph is of change in population in the Western Hemisphere which varies from a little over 10 million at present and decreases to 5.5 million by the year 2050. Change in population is divided between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America (USA & Canada). Northern America is further subdivided between natural increase and increase due to immigration. The numbers are based on Census department projections & obviously are subject to change in government policy.
The change in population is subject to birth rates, death rates, life expectancy, migration rates, average age and fertility rates.
The reason that the total of the second graph adds to more than the births is because there is some cross hemisphere activity from Eastern to Western Hemisphere.
This graph is of births in the Western Hemisphere which total around 16 million. They are divided between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America (USA & Canada).
This graph is of change in population in the Western Hemisphere which varies from a little over 10 million at present and decreases to 5.5 million by the year 2050. Change in population is divided between Latin America and the Caribbean and Northern America (USA & Canada). Northern America is further subdivided between natural increase and increase due to immigration. The numbers are based on Census department projections & obviously are subject to change in government policy.
The change in population is subject to birth rates, death rates, life expectancy, migration rates, average age and fertility rates.
The reason that the total of the second graph adds to more than the births is because there is some cross hemisphere activity from Eastern to Western Hemisphere.
May 30th, 2010 at 3:49:49 AM
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There are simply too many people in this world- and nature has a tendancy to balance its self when needed. we can delay it or influance it- but eventually the ship will right its self.
If it takes a world-scale epidimic, famine, natural disasters it dont matter- if theres too many there is too many.
If it takes a world-scale epidimic, famine, natural disasters it dont matter- if theres too many there is too many.
"Although men flatter themselves with their great actions, they are not so often the result of a great design as of chance." - Francois De La Rochefoucauld
May 30th, 2010 at 6:33:25 AM
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Zero Population Growth (ZPG) is hypothetical. No real country has ever been stable. By stable I mean that it goes up a little one year, and down a little the following year in a random fashion. All countries go from growth to long term decay in population which lasts for decades and can only be stopped with influx of new immigrants.
Hungary has probably the flattest population level in the history of the world, as close as any real country has come to perfect ZPG. The population peaked in 1980/81 and has now returned to the level it was in the 1956 revolution. But in 30 years it has only dropped 7.8% (an average drop of 0.27% per year). It is the 84th largest country in the world.
For large countries, Russia peaked in 1995, and Japan and Germany peaked in 2005. Japan is now back to it's year 2000 population, Germany to 2001 and Russia is back to it's 1980 population. In 1950 Russia and Japan were respectively 4th and 5th in the world, Germany was 7th. Today Japan is 9th, Russia is 10th, and Germany is 15th in population.
But the rate at which Russia's population is dropping (0.42% per year) is much higher than Hungary or Japan. That is directly related to being in the 15th year of population decline instead of the 5th. There are widespread fears of dwindling importance in the world, and there are government programs to encourage fertility.
For a country over 40 million people, probably the fastest dropping population in the world is the Ukraine (0.78% per year). That is 12.5% since it's peak in 1993. In general Eastern Europe is the region with the fastest dropping population.
Hungary has probably the flattest population level in the history of the world, as close as any real country has come to perfect ZPG. The population peaked in 1980/81 and has now returned to the level it was in the 1956 revolution. But in 30 years it has only dropped 7.8% (an average drop of 0.27% per year). It is the 84th largest country in the world.
For large countries, Russia peaked in 1995, and Japan and Germany peaked in 2005. Japan is now back to it's year 2000 population, Germany to 2001 and Russia is back to it's 1980 population. In 1950 Russia and Japan were respectively 4th and 5th in the world, Germany was 7th. Today Japan is 9th, Russia is 10th, and Germany is 15th in population.
But the rate at which Russia's population is dropping (0.42% per year) is much higher than Hungary or Japan. That is directly related to being in the 15th year of population decline instead of the 5th. There are widespread fears of dwindling importance in the world, and there are government programs to encourage fertility.
For a country over 40 million people, probably the fastest dropping population in the world is the Ukraine (0.78% per year). That is 12.5% since it's peak in 1993. In general Eastern Europe is the region with the fastest dropping population.
