Miscellaneous Discussion Thread
I think that's just what the ladies say to make us Floridians feel better! ;)Quote: boymimboTo be clear, size doesn't matter in the case of hurricanes.
Too small for one, too big for another.Quote: JoemanI think that's just what the ladies say to make us Floridians feel better! ;)
Quote: onenickelmiracleToo small for one,
So, for Flea and BBB an all other Florida based members, looks like Irma lost a bit of its intensity and the NHC still doesn't know when the hurricane is going to make its turn meaning it could make landfall as far west as Tampa and as far east as Savannah. The good news is that the land interaction with Cuba is having an effect and the eyewall replacement cycle could weaken it significantly. It is already down to Category 4 and could degrade to a 3 before it hits.
Irma is still ridiculously dangerous however.
4 and not a 5. A cat 5 sells far more
corn flakes and My Pillow's than 4
does.
Quote: odiousgambiti don't buy the current projection. Has a hurricane ever just gone up the middle of FL? I'm thinking either East or West coast, or maybe into the Gulf
Probably has. Maybe before Ponce de Leon though.
Quote: odiousgambiti don't buy the current projection. Has a hurricane ever just gone up the middle of FL? I'm thinking either East or West coast, or maybe into the Gulf
There is no reason why it wouldn't given current projections. Just because a land mass is shaped a certain way doesn't mean a hurricane can't roll straight up the middle of it.
Quote: EvenBobThe MSM is in tears that Irma is now a
4 and not a 5. A cat 5 sells far more
corn flakes and My Pillow's than 4
does.
Tragic. Hopefully for Anderson Coopers sake another plane disappears. Or maybe they can dig up some virus in Africa and pretend it's a threat to the US.
Quote: RigondeauxTragic. Hopefully for Anderson Coopers sake another plane disappears. Or maybe they can dig up some virus in Africa and pretend it's a threat to the US.
Yeah, they should be covering real news, like how many times Chief of Staff John Kelly had to tell Trump it's still too early to be seen playing golf.
Quote: rxwineYeah, they should be covering real news, like how many times Chief of Staff John Kelly had to tell Trump it's still too early to be seen playing golf.
Indeed. 24 rounds and 55 nights since election at Trump golf club. Cost to taxpayers: 60M+. And USA Today outed the names of Trump National members who are lobbyists and CEOs. Nothing to see here.
That said... real news is actually the hurricane, better than the Kardishians or what is happening on Bachelor in Paradise.
Fleastiff. Let them come get you to a shelter. Call now. Really. Now. You're in trouble.
Quote: rxwineAnyone know what would happen if you air dropped a million beach balls into a major hurricane still at sea? Would it look like a mad circus?
If you really want to know pour a bag of skittles in your toilet and flush it.
Quote: EvenBobThe MSM is in tears that Irma is now a
4 and not a 5. A cat 5 sells far more
corn flakes and My Pillow's than 4
does.
It's a ghost!
Nice to see you!
It is expected to strengthen over the warm water but as long as Cuba is on the south it will continue to weaken. My guess is that it is going to skirt off the west coast of FL like Matthew did to the east coast. But it's only a guess. The east coast should be fine. Miami should be fine. Tampa and Fleastiff's area is going to be terrible.
Jose only gave a glancing blow to Barbuda and the other Caribbean Islands are going to get missed.
And what's with the naming of hurricanes?
How about "Keisha" or "Darnell?"
I think the whole naming thing is racist, and I'm gonna tell.
Quote: MrVWouldn't it be "interesting" if it bypasses Florida entirely and hits Houston or New Orleans?
And what's with the naming of hurricanes?
How about "Keisha" or "Darnell?"
I think the whole naming thing is racist, and I'm gonna tell.
If we don't have a 'Deshawn' pretty soon it's going to prove the racist theory!
http://abcnews.go.com/2020/top-20-whitest-blackest-names/story?id=2470131
WTF?
Quote: RSXavier is a black name and Dominique is a boy name?
WTF?
Dominique Wilkins
The whites have a lot of nice names for their girls and stupid names for their boys. I think they might be improving on that front though because it wasn't as bad as I was expecting.
Quote: boymimboIrma will likely make landfall as a Category 3, perhaps a Category 2, somewhere on the west florida coast.
Say it's not so, CNN's gay albino will throw
a hissy fit if he has to give up non stop
coverage of the Trump Russia non story
and talk about a puny cat 2.
Quote: MaxPenWe will be praying for all of you crazy Florida people.
Prayer and money will get you somewhere.
Just prayer will make you feel good, that's
about it. Won't do squat for those you pray
for.
Quote: EvenBobPrayer and money will get you somewhere.
Just prayer will make you feel good, that's
about it. Won't do squat for those you pray
for.
What a buzzkill....geeze...lmao😳😜😀
Quote: MaxPenWhat a buzzkill....geeze...lmao😳😜😀
Up to a Category 4 now. It's motoring its way for a direct hit on Key West, where the highest point is 18 feet above sea level and downtown is between 8 and 10 feet above sea level. Waves are supposed to be 15 feet, never mind the surge.
I have to agree with Bob. Praying for people is the least you can do. What prayer should do is inspire you to do something about it, or at least someone to do something about it.
We can pray for those who chose not to evacuate or were overwhelmed by the idea of evacuating or couldn't evacuate. But we can also contribute directly to whatever charities are going to be cleaning up after Irma and Harvey.
Quote: beachbumbabsIrma is back to Cat5 as of 11pm est. New tracks are west of previous. It's going to be bad for Tampa to Ftm Myers.
Fleastiff. Let them come get you to a shelter. Call now. Really. Now. You're in trouble.
I chickened out. Left the feral cats to their own devices like the cowardly mass murderer that I am. s. Spent the night in a chair with my vacuum cleaner. Had franks and beans for dinner. Even had to watch football on tv for a while. I have some frapachinos which is my knockout drops of last resort. I may need to take them over the next few days.
Quote: FleaStiffI chickened out. Left the feral cats to their own devices like the cowardly mass murderer that I am. s. Spent the night in a chair with my vacuum cleaner. Had franks and beans for dinner. Even had to watch football on tv for a while. I have some frapachinos which is my knockout drops of last resort. I may need to take them over the next few days.
not following that too good but hope it means you went to a shelter of some kind, or got out
As storm remains over land it will dissipate quicker than expected. But Florida is not out of the woods yet. Marco Island is getting the back side now.
But watching this coverage it is clear that both the meteorologists and certainly the commentators don't understand. For example, the water level at Naples is now 6.4 feet, or about 4 feet above high tide, not 9 feet higher. The CNN commentator is wondering where the flooding is.
Flooding is coming very soon. While I find the coverage of people standing in wind sometimes compelling (only because it would be cool if they got blown away or hit by a tree), the surge behind the storm is compelling.
Quote: EvenBobPrayer and money will get you somewhere.
Just prayer will make you feel good, that's
about it. Won't do squat for those you pray
for.
My Dad used to say "Shit in one hand, pray in the other, see which one gets filled first. ".
Anyone else watching this? So far (first 2 episodes) the show has depicted the two (Burns & Rafay) as innocent and found guilty solely on their essentially coerced confessions, that there's no physical evidence of them being the murderers, and nothing other than the confession, tying them to the murders.
Doing a quick google search, I'm seeing lots of articles basically saying the same stuff (they're innocent). So far to me it seems like they're definitely innocent. But I'm curious if there's "another side" to the case.
Seems like all kinds of laws need a confession or cannot be prosecuted if the defendants have lawyers. I have not watched it, don't do Netflix.Quote: RSJust started watching a series on Netflix called The Confession Tapes. It's about Sebastian Burns & Atif Rafay who were given 3 life sentences each for allegedly killing Rafay's father, mother, and sister in Bellvue(sp?), Washington.
Anyone else watching this? So far (first 2 episodes) the show has depicted the two (Burns & Rafay) as innocent and found guilty solely on their essentially coerced confessions, that there's no physical evidence of them being the murderers, and nothing other than the confession, tying them to the murders.
Doing a quick google search, I'm seeing lots of articles basically saying the same stuff (they're innocent). So far to me it seems like they're definitely innocent. But I'm curious if there's "another side" to the case.
Quote: RSJust started watching a series on Netflix called The Confession Tapes. It's about Sebastian Burns & Atif Rafay who were given 3 life sentences each for allegedly killing Rafay's father, mother, and sister in Bellvue(sp?), Washington.
Anyone else watching this? So far (first 2 episodes) the show has depicted the two (Burns & Rafay) as innocent and found guilty solely on their essentially coerced confessions, that there's no physical evidence of them being the murderers, and nothing other than the confession, tying them to the murders.
Doing a quick google search, I'm seeing lots of articles basically saying the same stuff (they're innocent). So far to me it seems like they're definitely innocent. But I'm curious if there's "another side" to the case.
This was a big deal up in Canada and I remember the case and was working in Bellevue at the time of the trial and living in Vancouver at the time of the murder. The RCMP was criticized for the way that they got the confession from the kids. They frequently employ these tactics to catch people and get them to confess (called a Mr. Big operation). The CBC's Fifth Estate did an hour on the case.
When I see crimes without motives, I always favor motive to a friend or a family member. There was no motive for an outside force to murder these three people though there is a report (credible?)
At the time, there were too many weird things at the crime scene to not make it them: no forced entry, a staged robbery and showering at the scene of the crime to remove traces of the crime. Any home invasion or botched robbery has obvious pointers to that and the criminals certainly don't stay to clean up their own evidence. The behavior of the boys after the murders was bizarre and atypical of a mourning. The fact that the kids started to spend away the insurance money and were willing to participate in criminal activities with the RCMP shows that they weren't ethically straight up kids.
That said, the timing of the neighbors hearing thuds with reports of eyewitnesses seeing them at the movie screening and the club thereafter means that they would have had to skip across town, perform the murders, clean up (shower) and then get back to the movie theater or the club. I'm not saying they couldn't have done it and that if they had planned a murder it would have been a good way to do it. I've seen enough "48 hour mysteries" that show a person covering up a crime by purporting (and having eyewitnesses) that they were elsewhere at the time. And the linkage to a religion based murder in Vancouver and Bellevue/Seattle not investigating it in detail is interesting as well.
But damn it there was no forensic evidence at all. The boys were clean forensically. I've always had a disdain for juries who should not convict unless it is beyond a reasonable doubt and when the evidence is circumstantial it needs to be NO doubt. The boys had tremendous defenders but the power of the confession testimony (probably should not have been allowed but was) combined with Burns' sociopath attitude put them away.
Now with the Netflix documentary out, there will be a societal push to free these men. They probably should be freed. They probably did it, but probably isn't enough.
One of the legitimate people was this psychologist, also Canadian. She worked in the field of false memory (if you need an internet rabbit hole, just start reading aboot false memory).
Anyway, her big project was to attempt implanting false memories in students who volunteered for the study. She would contact their parents and get some basic info about them. In a couple of sessions, she was usually able to convince the student that they had committed a serious crime in high school. Something along the lines of assault with a deadly weapon. Meaning, not only did they confess, they believed they had committed the crime and remembered doing it.
Police often use stronger methods than she does. The implication is that we've been hanging innocent people forever.
Ah, I found her on the google. Julia Shaw.
p.s. she is hot.
Implanting false memories is really tough. Remember the time you posted about the McGregor fight, said you were afraid your hair would wind up on a Kardashian, then you deleted the comment?Quote: RigondeauxI love listening to Coast to Coast AM because it is this mix of nutjobs and legitimate people, most of whom are interesting in both cases.
One of the legitimate people was this psychologist, also Canadian. She worked in the field of false memory (if you need an internet rabbit hole, just start reading aboot false memory).
Anyway, her big project was to attempt implanting false memories in students who volunteered for the study. She would contact their parents and get some basic info about them. In a couple of sessions, she was usually able to convince the student that they had committed a serious crime in high school. Something along the lines of assault with a deadly weapon. Meaning, not only did they confess, they believed they had committed the crime and remembered doing it.
Police often use stronger methods than she does. The implication is that we've been hanging innocent people forever.
Ah, I found her on the google. Julia Shaw.
p.s. she is hot.
Quote: boymimboThis was a big deal up in Canada and I remember the case and was working in Bellevue at the time of the trial and living in Vancouver at the time of the murder. The RCMP was criticized for the way that they got the confession from the kids. They frequently employ these tactics to catch people and get them to confess (called a Mr. Big operation). The CBC's Fifth Estate did an hour on the case.
When I see crimes without motives, I always favor motive to a friend or a family member. There was no motive for an outside force to murder these three people though there is a report (credible?)
IIRC, the father figured out something about east not really being truly east but off by 1 or 1.5 degrees (Muslims pray facing east apparently) and was criticized for that from the Muslim (Islam?) community, since it's kinda like saying, "Hey, you've all been doing it wrong all this time!" In the show they also said the Bellevue PD got info from a credible informant or something saying some terrorist group (FUQRA?) had been planning a murder in that area....but I guess it went un-investigated. Then again, who knows how credible that source really was -- just because the show says it was credible doesn't mean it was credible or at least appeared to be credible.
Quote: boymimboAt the time, there were too many weird things at the crime scene to not make it them: no forced entry, a staged robbery and showering at the scene of the crime to remove traces of the crime. Any home invasion or botched robbery has obvious pointers to that and the criminals certainly don't stay to clean up their own evidence. The behavior of the boys after the murders was bizarre and atypical of a mourning. The fact that the kids started to spend away the insurance money and were willing to participate in criminal activities with the RCMP shows that they weren't ethically straight up kids.
I think part of them being willing to cooperate with the Mr. Big operation (they explain that on the show, too), is they were being reported as the murderers and had all the negative press, couldn't really have a social life anymore, couldn't find a job, etc. etc., before they were arrested and gone to trial.
I might be a little confused on the timeline, but it seems like the murders occurred in 1994 or 1995. Then there was a dead spot for several years, then in 2001 or 2002 they were arrested and the trial started. So over that 6-7 year time period, they were social outcasts. So when they're backed into a corner (being treated like criminals and about to be arrested for a crime they didn't commit), it's not too hard to see what's going to happen.
Quote: boymimboThat said, the timing of the neighbors hearing thuds with reports of eyewitnesses seeing them at the movie screening and the club thereafter means that they would have had to skip across town, perform the murders, clean up (shower) and then get back to the movie theater or the club. I'm not saying they couldn't have done it and that if they had planned a murder it would have been a good way to do it. I've seen enough "48 hour mysteries" that show a person covering up a crime by purporting (and having eyewitnesses) that they were elsewhere at the time. And the linkage to a religion based murder in Vancouver and Bellevue/Seattle not investigating it in detail is interesting as well.
But damn it there was no forensic evidence at all. The boys were clean forensically. I've always had a disdain for juries who should not convict unless it is beyond a reasonable doubt and when the evidence is circumstantial it needs to be NO doubt. The boys had tremendous defenders but the power of the confession testimony (probably should not have been allowed but was) combined with Burns' sociopath attitude put them away.
Now with the Netflix documentary out, there will be a societal push to free these men. They probably should be freed. They probably did it, but probably isn't enough.
I think everyone reacts to things differently. Some people essentially shut-down after something like that happening, going into a depression, oftentimes suicide, etc. Although rare, some people are the opposite of that and just sorta go HAM. Others (most?) just do what most people do and grieve for a short period then pretty much go back to their regular lives.
Supposing they did it, if they were smart enough to get away with the murders, lose all evidence, etc. it seems unlikely they'd be stupid enough to go on spending sprees, clubbing, and all that. I think Atif was a graduate or at least attending Cornell and I think Sebastian was decently educated, too. Then again, assuming someone will make the optimal decision isn't the best argument to say they did or didn't do something. IE: Why do you look both ways before crossing a one-way street?
*disclaimer-
Everything I "know" about this case is basically from the first two episodes of the series on Netflix and a little bit of reading on Wikipedia and some other articles online, so my comments are about my opinion of what I've seen and aren't claims of fact.
Quote: RigondeauxI love listening to Coast to Coast AM because it is this mix of nutjobs and legitimate people, most of whom are interesting in both cases.
One of the legitimate people was this psychologist, also Canadian. She worked in the field of false memory (if you need an internet rabbit hole, just start reading aboot false memory).
Anyway, her big project was to attempt implanting false memories in students who volunteered for the study. She would contact their parents and get some basic info about them. In a couple of sessions, she was usually able to convince the student that they had committed a serious crime in high school. Something along the lines of assault with a deadly weapon. Meaning, not only did they confess, they believed they had committed the crime and remembered doing it.
Police often use stronger methods than she does. The implication is that we've been hanging innocent people forever.
Ah, I found her on the google. Julia Shaw.
p.s. she is hot.
Oh damn, you're right, she is hot. I was expecting a "meh" when I image-searched her name, but I was wrong. Unfortunately she is a Canadian (but hey, everyone has at least on flaw).
As far as implanting false memories, it's actually not that hard to happen, especially if you're under a lot of stress and being grilled on it for a long time. I sorta had an experience with this and it's kinda messed up. I'd rather not go into the details but after even a few days of being grilled on something a few people thought I did, it got to the point where it felt like I was trying to cover my tracks and needed to lie and remember what I had said before so I wouldn't have holes in my story.
Although it doesn't seem like that's what happened with Burns & Rafay, it certainly has similar consequences....and it's a pretty f****d up situation to be put into.
Quote: RSJust started watching a series on Netflix called The Confession Tapes. It's about Sebastian Burns & Atif Rafay who were given 3 life sentences each for allegedly killing Rafay's father, mother, and sister in Bellvue(sp?), Washington.
Anyone else watching this? So far (first 2 episodes) the show has depicted the two (Burns & Rafay) as innocent and found guilty solely on their essentially coerced confessions, that there's no physical evidence of them being the murderers, and nothing other than the confession, tying them to the murders.
Doing a quick google search, I'm seeing lots of articles basically saying the same stuff (they're innocent). So far to me it seems like they're definitely innocent. But I'm curious if there's "another side" to the case.
I'm almost done the series, they cover 6 case a total.
I'm really not sure how some of these detectives/prosecutors sleep at night.
We got pretty lucky. Wind topped out at less than 100mph here, but wind gauges broke, so don't have an exact number. a few small branches down, no house damage. pool overflowed but is draining. just saw the first sunbeam. wind still gusting to around 40mph but diminishing.
Thanks for all the good wishes.
I'm thinking about confessing, just haven't decided, what to yet?Quote: RigondeauxAh, I found her on the google. Julia Shaw.
Quote: RSQuote: RigondeauxI love listening to Coast to Coast AM because it is this mix of nutjobs and legitimate people, most of whom are interesting in both cases.
One of the legitimate people was this psychologist, also Canadian. She worked in the field of false memory (if you need an internet rabbit hole, just start reading aboot false memory).
Anyway, her big project was to attempt implanting false memories in students who volunteered for the study. She would contact their parents and get some basic info about them. In a couple of sessions, she was usually able to convince the student that they had committed a serious crime in high school. Something along the lines of assault with a deadly weapon. Meaning, not only did they confess, they believed they had committed the crime and remembered doing it.
Police often use stronger methods than she does. The implication is that we've been hanging innocent people forever.
Ah, I found her on the google. Julia Shaw.
p.s. she is hot.
Oh damn, you're right, she is hot. I was expecting a "meh" when I image-searched her name, but I was wrong. Unfortunately she is a Canadian (but hey, everyone has at least on flaw).
As far as implanting false memories, it's actually not that hard to happen, especially if you're under a lot of stress and being grilled on it for a long time. I sorta had an experience with this and it's kinda messed up. I'd rather not go into the details but after even a few days of being grilled on something a few people thought I did, it got to the point where it felt like I was trying to cover my tracks and needed to lie and remember what I had said before so I wouldn't have holes in my story.
I looked into it because I was reading about the Woody Allen case and it seemed 1)Very unlikely that he was guilty 2) His daughter was convinced it happened. I saw some people suggesting a false memory but that seemed really far fetched to me.
However, it seems like it is very easy to implant false memories.
The most compelling study involved 2 groups. One was regular people. The other was people with freak memories. Like, you could ask them what they had for lunch on October 4th 1998 and they'd remember.
So the researchers would talk about 9/11 with these people and make some allusions to the video of flight 93. Eventually they would ask the subject about the video and they'd very often give their detailed recollections, even though no such video exists.
Obviously, this can also happen inadvertently or because we are driven to believe what we wish were true. As a result, everybody has tons of false memories.
Therefore, my money says you probably did victimize that poor boy, but have a false memory of your innocence.
Quote: RigondeauxI looked into it because I was reading about the Woody Allen case and it seemed 1)Very unlikely that he was guilty 2) His daughter was convinced it happened. I saw some people suggesting a false memory but that seemed really far fetched to me.
However, it seems like it is very easy to implant false memories.
The most compelling study involved 2 groups. One was regular people. The other was people with freak memories. Like, you could ask them what they had for lunch on October 4th 1998 and they'd remember.
So the researchers would talk about 9/11 with these people and make some allusions to the video of flight 93. Eventually they would ask the subject about the video and they'd very often give their detailed recollections, even though no such video exists.
Obviously, this can also happen inadvertently or because we are driven to believe what we wish were true. As a result, everybody has tons of false memories.
Therefore, my money says you probably did victimize that poor boy, but have a false memory of your innocence.
Oh no, I admit to having done that. j/k
But yeah, memory is weird. It's not like a video recording and you can recall stuff exactly how it happened. It's more like your brain takes random pictures then when you try to recall it, your brain patches together a bunch of pictures that aren't super accurate but related to each other. I think that's also why sometimes you can recall when something happened (like the precise date and/or time) or some detail that doesn't seem like it'd be particularly memorable and other times something that seems like it'd be super memorable, you have no memory of it whatsoever.
Glad to hear, Babs! We just got power back after a 16 hr outage. Much better than Matthew last year when we were out for 5 days. Downtown area saw record flooding with the storm surge. However, our area, which is prone to flooding with heavy rains, but not storm surge, stayed relatively dry.Quote: beachbumbabsIrma update for me. Power came back about 90 min ago at this house; not sure about mine. out for 7 hours. Water is turned off community-wide due to main breaks of unknown locations. Sewers are flooded but streets are not. Internet just returned. Cell phone still unusable.
We got pretty lucky. Wind topped out at less than 100mph here, but wind gauges broke, so don't have an exact number. a few small branches down, no house damage. pool overflowed but is draining. just saw the first sunbeam. wind still gusting to around 40mph but diminishing.
Thanks for all the good wishes.
We had a few large branches come down, but fortunately they all missed the house. Our neighbor across the street had 2 trees come down. One is still resting on his garage.
