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unJon
unJon 
Joined: Jul 1, 2018
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January 12th, 2022 at 11:58:51 AM permalink
Not that Iím endorsing any views, but I often enjoy the writing at seeking alpha when looking at stocks. This is from November from them.

https://seekingalpha.com/amp/article/4468807-united-states-steel-x-stock-punished-good-market-conditions
The race is not always to the swift, nor the battle to the strong; but that is the way to bet.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 229
  • Posts: 12682
January 12th, 2022 at 12:09:47 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

When I think I understand the stock market a littleÖ. Help me out hereÖ..

X (US Steel) is one of my holdings. Itís around $25. Last QUARTER it showed earnings of around $5. Next QUARTER it is expected to have earnings of around $5. Its P/E ratio for the year is listed as 2! Why isnít the stock price MUCH higher?
link to original post



Guesses?

US Steel is an awful managed company. Horrible to work at and not very innovative. There is little growth with them.

Concern for shortages interrupting business maybe?

A quick look at their options maybe I will make a wager as $0.30 of theta decay for 3 days is nice.
link to original post



I guess I donít understand. If so poorly managed why are they making the huge profits last quarter and expected next quarter? They announced an expansion by building some huge factory in Arkansas. Sounds like growth?

Can you give us details about the bet you are making on (or against?) US steel in the option play you mentioned?
link to original post



Even bad managed companies can do good in good times. USX just has bad history and little in the way of innovation.

But that does not mean you cannot make money off of it!

EDIT: I placed a 24.50/25.50 bull call spread expires Friday (actually Sat). Lets see if I can crank out a quick profit.

Here is the deal on what I did. X has options expiring Friday. At the time I did the trade it was trading about $25.34, up to $25.44 as I write this. So I did the following:

1. Bought an option to buy (call) at $24.50
2. Sold another call that someone else can buy at $25.50

Now, the exact prices I did each at do not matter, I do not even know them! What matters is the net cost to me was $0.56 per share. So if X is at $25.07 or more at market close on Friday I make money. Ideally it is at $25.51 or more at close so I do nothing. Then while I sleep......

I will be assigned 1,000 shares at $24.50 and at the same time be assigned to sell 1,000 at $25.50.

That is a net sale proceeds of $1,000. I put $560 ($0.56 a share) into it for a profit of $440! On an investment of $560. Someone do the ROI for me!

Now, this is risky as if it goes down I can lose my entire $560. In this way this is kind of like betting sports but with some more outs.

If a few people want to learn about options trading that is its own thread. This is not hard but not simple and very speculative. This is your sportsbook money, not your retirement account!
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 113
  • Posts: 8467
January 12th, 2022 at 4:24:42 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

When I think I understand the stock market a littleÖ. Help me out hereÖ..

X (US Steel) is one of my holdings. Itís around $25. Last QUARTER it showed earnings of around $5. Next QUARTER it is expected to have earnings of around $5. Its P/E ratio for the year is listed as 2! Why isnít the stock price MUCH higher?
link to original post



Guesses?

US Steel is an awful managed company. Horrible to work at and not very innovative. There is little growth with them.

Concern for shortages interrupting business maybe?

A quick look at their options maybe I will make a wager as $0.30 of theta decay for 3 days is nice.
link to original post



I guess I donít understand. If so poorly managed why are they making the huge profits last quarter and expected next quarter? They announced an expansion by building some huge factory in Arkansas. Sounds like growth?

Can you give us details about the bet you are making on (or against?) US steel in the option play you mentioned?
link to original post



Even bad managed companies can do good in good times. USX just has bad history and little in the way of innovation.

But that does not mean you cannot make money off of it!

EDIT: I placed a 24.50/25.50 bull call spread expires Friday (actually Sat). Lets see if I can crank out a quick profit.

Here is the deal on what I did. X has options expiring Friday. At the time I did the trade it was trading about $25.34, up to $25.44 as I write this. So I did the following:

1. Bought an option to buy (call) at $24.50
2. Sold another call that someone else can buy at $25.50

Now, the exact prices I did each at do not matter, I do not even know them! What matters is the net cost to me was $0.56 per share. So if X is at $25.07 or more at market close on Friday I make money. Ideally it is at $25.51 or more at close so I do nothing. Then while I sleep......

I will be assigned 1,000 shares at $24.50 and at the same time be assigned to sell 1,000 at $25.50.

That is a net sale proceeds of $1,000. I put $560 ($0.56 a share) into it for a profit of $440! On an investment of $560. Someone do the ROI for me!

Now, this is risky as if it goes down I can lose my entire $560. In this way this is kind of like betting sports but with some more outs.

If a few people want to learn about options trading that is its own thread. This is not hard but not simple and very speculative. This is your sportsbook money, not your retirement account!
link to original post

. Itís at $25.71 now. Looking good! My B in Law would (sometimes) get out of those positions now, maybe at a profit of $350 instead of the $440 you get by waiting until the expiration.
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 229
  • Posts: 12682
January 12th, 2022 at 4:52:21 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

When I think I understand the stock market a littleÖ. Help me out hereÖ..

X (US Steel) is one of my holdings. Itís around $25. Last QUARTER it showed earnings of around $5. Next QUARTER it is expected to have earnings of around $5. Its P/E ratio for the year is listed as 2! Why isnít the stock price MUCH higher?
link to original post



Guesses?

US Steel is an awful managed company. Horrible to work at and not very innovative. There is little growth with them.

Concern for shortages interrupting business maybe?

A quick look at their options maybe I will make a wager as $0.30 of theta decay for 3 days is nice.
link to original post



I guess I donít understand. If so poorly managed why are they making the huge profits last quarter and expected next quarter? They announced an expansion by building some huge factory in Arkansas. Sounds like growth?

Can you give us details about the bet you are making on (or against?) US steel in the option play you mentioned?
link to original post



Even bad managed companies can do good in good times. USX just has bad history and little in the way of innovation.

But that does not mean you cannot make money off of it!

EDIT: I placed a 24.50/25.50 bull call spread expires Friday (actually Sat). Lets see if I can crank out a quick profit.

Here is the deal on what I did. X has options expiring Friday. At the time I did the trade it was trading about $25.34, up to $25.44 as I write this. So I did the following:

1. Bought an option to buy (call) at $24.50
2. Sold another call that someone else can buy at $25.50

Now, the exact prices I did each at do not matter, I do not even know them! What matters is the net cost to me was $0.56 per share. So if X is at $25.07 or more at market close on Friday I make money. Ideally it is at $25.51 or more at close so I do nothing. Then while I sleep......

I will be assigned 1,000 shares at $24.50 and at the same time be assigned to sell 1,000 at $25.50.

That is a net sale proceeds of $1,000. I put $560 ($0.56 a share) into it for a profit of $440! On an investment of $560. Someone do the ROI for me!

Now, this is risky as if it goes down I can lose my entire $560. In this way this is kind of like betting sports but with some more outs.

If a few people want to learn about options trading that is its own thread. This is not hard but not simple and very speculative. This is your sportsbook money, not your retirement account!
link to original post

. Itís at $25.71 now. Looking good! My B in Law would (sometimes) get out of those positions now, maybe at a profit of $350 instead of the $440 you get by waiting until the expiration.
link to original post



The problem is a gamma-squeeze. While the math gets complex the issue is that the second option gets more expensive while it is At-the-money, adding theta. But I will be looking at it tomorrow. If it pops up I will do much as you suggest. $350 is what as a percent of $560? 60%ish return in a day?

This whole strategy is about finding a momentum stock that will go up a point or a few over a few days. It is a form of scalping. I did decent on AAPL last year, it being a higher priced stock easier to move a strike price or two. But I was not careful and did it with earnings coming up, it worked out but that is a dangerous thing.

I will report back when I sell or get filled.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
SOOPOO
SOOPOO
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
  • Threads: 113
  • Posts: 8467
January 13th, 2022 at 6:44:11 AM permalink
I am not bad at buying stocks. I AM bad at selling them! A week ago I sold some TSM when it hit $134.50. I almost bragged about how I got out at its peak as it quickly fell below $130! Itís solidly above $140 todayÖ.

X at $25.61 this moment. I am rooting for AZ and at least $25.51 on Friday 4pm!
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 229
  • Posts: 12682
January 13th, 2022 at 8:40:30 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am not bad at buying stocks. I AM bad at selling them! A week ago I sold some TSM when it hit $134.50. I almost bragged about how I got out at its peak as it quickly fell below $130! Itís solidly above $140 todayÖ.

X at $25.61 this moment. I am rooting for AZ and at least $25.51 on Friday 4pm!
link to original post





I put in a limit order to sell at a credit of $0.90 no takers yet. That is a $0.34 profit on $0.56. Or 60%. It might fill at end of day as theta falls but I feel reasonably good if I do not get filled price holds tomorrow. But waiting is worse than watching the underdog make garbage points against the spread.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 229
  • Posts: 12682
January 13th, 2022 at 12:50:11 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am not bad at buying stocks. I AM bad at selling them! A week ago I sold some TSM when it hit $134.50. I almost bragged about how I got out at its peak as it quickly fell below $130! Itís solidly above $140 todayÖ.

X at $25.61 this moment. I am rooting for AZ and at least $25.51 on Friday 4pm!
link to original post



So I got stuck in a gamma squeeze. Falling below my upper strike so I did the following:

Sold a 25.00 call and bought the 25.50 back for a net credit of 0.27.

So my net debit is now .56 - .27 or 0.29. If she stays above 25 my ROI is now 72% but a lesser $210. I probably should have just sold it all out for that profit now that I think about it but I just could not get filled.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
DRich
DRich
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
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  • Posts: 8271
January 13th, 2022 at 1:24:32 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

I am not bad at buying stocks. I AM bad at selling them!



The story of my million dollar net worth to now.
Order from chaos
AZDuffman
AZDuffman 
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
  • Threads: 229
  • Posts: 12682
January 14th, 2022 at 1:13:18 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

Quote: SOOPOO

I am not bad at buying stocks. I AM bad at selling them! A week ago I sold some TSM when it hit $134.50. I almost bragged about how I got out at its peak as it quickly fell below $130! Itís solidly above $140 todayÖ.

X at $25.61 this moment. I am rooting for AZ and at least $25.51 on Friday 4pm!
link to original post



So I got stuck in a gamma squeeze. Falling below my upper strike so I did the following:

Sold a 25.00 call and bought the 25.50 back for a net credit of 0.27.

So my net debit is now .56 - .27 or 0.29. If she stays above 25 my ROI is now 72% but a lesser $210. I probably should have just sold it all out for that profit now that I think about it but I just could not get filled.
link to original post



She held above 25. Tonight 1,000 shares will be bought and sold. $210 not a huge amount but making sure you do not lose is the key to this game is avoiding losses and living to trade another day. Plenty of time to max a few trades.
All animals are equal, but some are more equal than others
lilredrooster
lilredrooster
Joined: May 8, 2015
  • Threads: 192
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January 17th, 2022 at 1:51:02 AM permalink
___________


China's increasingly tight restrictions due to Covid and the possibility that they will impose another lockdown is creating fear of further disruptions in the global supply chain

I think if the supply chain suffers even more I believe there's a chance the markets will take a big hit



.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/01/15/business/china-economy-challenges-zero-covid-omicron-intl-hnk/index.html


.
"𝘣𝘦𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘷𝘦 𝘩𝘢𝘭𝘧 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘯𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘰𝘧 𝘸𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘩𝘦𝘢𝘳"______Edgar Allan Poe

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