Played dice with Ahigh tonight.

Quote: MrV

I for one am not bothered by the crew talking to one another during a craps roll.

So long as they do their job quickly and competently, let em yak.

Just curious: did you think you would actually do better if they silently watched you roll?

If so: why?

These guys are probably bored out of their minds: show them some mercy.

No I compartmentalize. I am there as much to buy some entertainment as anything else. I have an entertainment budget and that's where tips come from.

I spend more money tipping dealers than I do for internet service. I expect GOOD SERVICE. And I treat the dealers as people who work for me accordingly.

When I threw a fit at the Silverton, a big part of the reason why is BECAUSE I felt like I was not getting the service that I deserved.

As it turns out I was in the wrong on that one, but if I didn't tip at all and the same thing happened, I would have felt more like maybe I deserved it.

You don't have to tip when you go out to eat either technically. But unless you never plan on going back, it's not a good idea!!!

Quote: Ahigh

Let me tell you how I tipped ten minutes ago.

I went to Mandalay Bay. I bought in for $100 at a ten dollar table. I was rolling lots of hard 6's and hard 8's. The first hit, I bet a $1 hard 8 with a $30 working on the comeout and rolled it in one roll and said "ten and down on the hard 8." This made the point that I could call a shot and got the dealers attention.

So the next hard eight I made it a two way and the dealer stacked it for player control and said "let's parlay it." I said no problem. The 8 came easy, and I put back a hard 8 on a two way. A little action occurred and I had an extra $2 and I said "press up the 2-way hard 8." I then said, "come on stick man let's go from 2 to 2000."

The sticks were excited. They know that I have rolled three hards with no easy in that casino the last time I was there.

The stick man started talking to another dealer about one of the staff having gout, and I reminded the stick man, hey stick help me focus I'm trying to roll a hard 8.

The stick man ignored me, mostly, and I threw a seven.

I then said politely, "hey stick I need your help to focus in and call these numbers for me." I then tipped them another dollar and said "lock it up" as I reprimanded the stick man.

My session win was exactly $50. When they colored me up with my buy-in with an additional two green chips I took a single dollar bill out of my wallet and I said to the dealers, "hey you guys have been very polite and I really appreciate the service."

The translation should have been in their minds "if you had paid more attention to your bets you might have gotten a bigger (IE: $2000) tip."

I also threw in two additional dollars during the process as the dealers were being very happy to see me winning, and I say "LOCK IT UP NO BET."

So total tips they got were $3 for a $50 win. Total amount of money I expended to tip them was about $6. But they lost half. So it was more than 10% of my wins to tip them. They were overall good, which I did explicitly tell them "thank you for being so polite."

But they could have paid more attention instead of yacking about the guy with gout instead of encouraging me to get a parlay hit on the hard 8.

I don't know if this is enough detail, but this just happened minutes ago and is very accurate of both the amount as well as how I tip. All the money on the hardways is more or less a write-off. A $1 hard 8 with a $30 eight place bet is noise in the weighted edge on the table. A $1 hard eight with a $3 place bet on the 8 is another story on the edge. But I got dollars and other loose change for this type of thing.

I got no sodas and I tipped no waitresses and I brought a can of soda with me that I finished and left the empty can in the car. I save a lot of money buying bulk sodas and no drinking alcohol at all.

More amazing every day. First, You made the point that you can call your shots?? Really?

Second, how does your head fit through the casino doors when you arrive? Telling people what they should be doing/talking about when they are working? You "reprimanded the Stickman" Really?

Third, You really think by them focusing 100% on your instead of having chatting between themselves that your rolls could have resulted in different numbers? And you really think that's how they "translate" your actions? Really?

Wow. You are quite a piece of work.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

More amazing every day. First, You made the point that you can call your shots?? Really?

Second, how does your head fit through the casino doors when you arrive? Telling people what they should be doing/talking about when they are working? You "reprimanded the Stickman" Really?

Third, You really think by them focusing 100% on your instead of having chatting between themselves that your rolls could have resulted in different numbers? And you really think that's how they "translate" your actions? Really?

Wow. You are quite a piece of work.

Maybe you forgot but it is a game, my friend. How sad it must be to live in your world.

You do know that when you watch movies, a lot of that stuff is make believe too. It's called entertainment. Have you ever experienced it before?

Anybody can call their hardway shots 1 in 36 times in craps. My only goal is to do it slightly more frequently, and I do have data suggesting that I can do that.

But the reality of being able to do it 100% of the time as you imply with your response is a little bit ignorant of the facts relating to my claim that I can call my shots just like anybody else. Even a random shooter.

Please show your data that suggests you can "call your shots". I've never seen any data or video proof of that. I can't even believe you are saying you can.

You stated you put a $1 bet on hard eight and rolled it in one roll. You then stated "This made the point that I could call a shot and got the dealers attention."

So you're saying you can specifically "call your shots". Before it was that you could roll more hard ways, now it's gone up a notch (or 100) that you can call the specific number?

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

Please show your data that suggests you can "call your shots". I've never seen any data or video proof of that. I can't even believe you are saying you can.

You stated you put a $1 bet on hard eight and rolled it in one roll. You then stated "This made the point that I could call a shot and got the dealers attention."

So you're saying you can specifically "call your shots". Before it was that you could roll more hard ways, now it's gone up a notch (or 100) that you can call the specific number?

ZCore13

Anyone can call a hard 8 once every 36 attempts in general.

Calling a shot is something that dealers do for fun. I do it too.

Even though anyone can do it 1 in 36 times for a pair and 1 in 18 times for an easy, many people never even try to call a shot.

I do call shots.

If you think this reflects a lack of intelligence, that's your opinion.

I think your inability to recognize that I, like anyone else, can call a shot a fraction of the time even just randomly, I have got to stop and laugh at you my friend.

One more point: do you really not know where my data is? Seriously? As my biggest critic, I would think you might be familiar with it.

If you look at my data, whatever is on the top of my set has appeared 1 in 28.5 times for nearly 3400 rolls on average.

I do understand if you don't have the ability to see that yourself from my data. But my data is there, and most people following along have access to it.

Your data does not include "calling your shot". It's just data. This was the first time I've ever seen you say that you can call your shot and you were letting them know you could.

ZCore13

Quote: Zcore13

Your data does not include "calling your shot". It's just data. This was the first time I've ever seen you say that you can call your shot and you were letting them know you could.

ZCore13

You are really not getting this are you?

The data is just data.

The data implies that it's a reasonable possibility that whatever is on the top of my set comes more frequently than one out of 36. The data proves nothing. It does, however, serve as a guide for what might be possible.

Calling a shot is not telling with 100% certainty what is going to happen. It is the process of verbalizing what you would like immediately before getting it.

Many players try to call every shot. An example might be someone who snaps their fingers every roll and says "tway-elve!" each time after betting the horn high 12.

If you call a shot, you are not beating randomness or the game, you are just calling a shot.

Let me know if you still have trouble with any of this, I do want to help. But as we all know, you cling to any and all data that might possibly serve your purpose of attempting to make me look stupid. So I highly doubt you are truly confused. More likely you simply would like an opportunity to discredit what I say.

I seriously doubt you have any problem understanding any of this. I think you just don't like me. That's what I think.

Actually, in the 6262 data, the 6 comes out on top 333 of 2134 times, or 15.6%, less than 1/6. There is no data in his early set that shows any bias towards or away from the 6.

In the 4242 data, the 4 comes out 787 of 4424 times or 1 of 31.6 times for a p value of .02219
He is talking about 4-4 which specifically comes out 1 in 28.359 with a p value of .0163 over 4,424 sample sizes

However, translating the 6262 set to the 4242 set (6 turns to 4, 1 turns to 3, 3 turns to 6s, 4 turns to 1s), we get the 4-4 with a P value of .0046 (hard 4 116 of 3279 trials). This to me is significant enough to believe that a bias exists.

However, the 4 in itself appears 1,120 times of 6,558 trials with a P value of .191, nothing out of the ordinary. What this suggests to me is that although *most* of A-high's throws are off line, off axis, etc, he gets something right once in a while and tosses more 4-4s (way more, actually), than expected.

Ahigh's data supports the fact that the dice that are up at his throw have a higher than average likelyhood, and if his crap table data mirrors his casino data, then he has a 15.88% Player advantage on the hard 8, which is what his set is.

And if that ain't enough of an endorsement for A-high, I don't know what is.

I don't record my rolls in the casino so I don't know for sure, but I do believe that I get more of what's on the top of my set in the casino just as much as I do at home.

Thanks for the comments above. It's not that often that someone does their homework on my published data to come up with the same conclusion as me; which is merely that it's possible that something is there.

Absolutely a departure from comments like Alan's "complete disaster" and more recently I think "garbage in garbage out" as it relates to my work.

I needed a little pick me up so thanks for saying what you said there.

Quote: Ahigh

So the next hard eight I made it a two way and the dealer stacked it for player control and said "let's parlay it." I said no problem. The 8 came easy, and I put back a hard 8 on a two way. A little action occurred and I had an extra $2 and I said "press up the 2-way hard 8." I then said, "come on stick man let's go from 2 to 2000."

The sticks were excited. They know that I have rolled three hards with no easy in that casino the last time I was there.

The stick man started talking to another dealer about one of the staff having gout, and I reminded the stick man, hey stick help me focus I'm trying to roll a hard 8.

The stick man ignored me, mostly, and I threw a seven.

I then said politely, "hey stick I need your help to focus in and call these numbers for me." I then tipped them another dollar and said "lock it up" as I reprimanded the stick man.

You are one self-absorbed son of a gun.

Quote: Ahigh

I don't record my rolls in the casino

this is something new, so all of your reports about hardways and softways are just estimations?

Rob Singer caught hell recently when he for the first time admitted that his trip reports about the number of hands played between royal flushes were just "estimations."

Quote: Ahigh

I don't record my rolls in the casino so I don't know for sure, but I do believe that I get more of what's on the top of my set in the casino just as much as I do at home.

If I'm correct your first few thousands throws were not recorded? And the one show I watched, you had trouble remembering more than once if you even entered in the previous throw. Is it at all possible there are some errors in your early throws? Possibly some 7's not recorded? Possibly a couple of mistakes in entering what you remembered as the throw? Would these few errors (if it's possible they exist) change some of the percentages?

I would think video taped and independently entered data would be a bit more accurate and reliable. Do the recorded show results differ at all in basic results than from earlier non recorded?

ZCore13

Quote: AlanMendelson

You are one self-absorbed son of a gun.

Yes, especially unlike you.

Quote: AlanMendelson

You are one self-absorbed son of a gun.

Quote: tupp

Yes, especially unlike you.

If I am, I earned it. However, I don't "reprimand the stick man" and I have never "reminded the stick man, hey stick help me focus I'm trying to roll a hard 8" and then heaven forbid I never worry that "the stick man ignored me" and as a result "I threw a seven."

But frankly, I've never fallen for the old dealer trick of being talked into parlaying a hardway bet -- it's hard enough just winning it once, but to have to parlay to gain the satisfaction of the dealers? No way.

But then to claim that "the sticks were excited" over a one dollar hardway bet makes me think they were just massaging a target.

But in the end it comes down to this: I don't reprimand any crew member or any employee of a casino. It's not my place and it's not my job. But then, I'm not the king of craps.

I am sorry tupp that you got wrapped up in Ahigh's fantasies.

The reality is, however, that if Ahigh's observations at his home crap table are true, and that ALL rolls are recorded, then he is throwing his dice up set (4-4) 116 times of 3,279 rolls which is an anomaly if not a bias. The likelyhood of a random shooter doing this is 0.456% or about 2.9 standard deviations away from norm.

His data set shows a 16.5% Player Advantage on the hard 8. What this tells me is that he is able to throw is dice up set and result in his dice up set at an advantageous rate. It doesn't mean that every throw is controlled. It means that a small proportion of throws (less than 1%, actually) are controlled to make the 4-4 come up successfully while the rest of his throws come up random. It *may* also be just a random anomaly.

His data also shows that his off axis hardways come off the least number of times (1 - 80, 6 - 85) followed by his opposite number (3, 86) followed by his other axis numbers (2 - 95 and 5 - 98). This data only correlates his findings.

If I had the same roll data from my home crap table, I would act on it. The fact that the bias is towards the numbers he has up in a hardway set shows that he has enough control to overcome the casino HA, and his ONLY bet should be the hard 8 because it is the only bet where he is showing a bias.

i think thats great you had a good time at the table, i certainly appreciate when people act
like gentlemen at the table, and its great that the crew is thought of. I guess i would not
have thought Ahigh would have been anything other than a gentleman at the table, he likes
craps as we all do. Seems like a nice guy to me.

Just because we differ on what we think a controlled throw is, does not mean we dont all love
this game the same, and can be gentlemen when we play it. We are all doing the same thing,
we just have different ways of doing it.

hope you have many more good outings.

Dicesetter

Quote: AlanMendelson

But frankly, I've never fallen for the old dealer trick of being talked into parlaying a hardway bet -- it's hard enough just winning it once, but to have to parlay to gain the satisfaction of the dealers? No way.

FYI, I have rolled hard 6 three times with no easy three times in the last two weeks, and I have rolled hard 8 three times with no easy once in the last two weeks. And that is a minimum number of occurrences, not an estimation. The stick man at the Mandalay Bay saw me do the hard 6 three times with no easy the previous time I was in there. I took ten and down on the first hard 6 and the stick man mentioned the parlay and I ignored it. So they all pointed out that I missed the 1 to 1000, so that's the backstory for all of this.

I have this type of thing on video specifically talking about the top of my set coming up more often on you tube.

I do this at home and I do this at the casino. People take notice when I do it at the casino, and taking a shot at it takes a lot of balls. For the dealers, they don't care where the $1000 tip comes from, but that's a big enough tip to get excited about even if it's only got a 1 in 1331 chance of happening from a completely random shooter. On average, the tip is worth less than a dollar, but it's something worth talking about to get a $1,000 tip for the boys. And if we got to $100 without making it, I would throw in a dollar as a consolation prize!

Don't forget that I'm only describing all of this because SOMEBODY ASKED ME HOW I TIP. I told them and they WANTED MORE DETAIL. So I gave them more detail. Context is important. And this goes towards Alan Mendelson. This was a 100% empty table I was playing at. A $10 table at the Mandalay Bay. I'm paying the price and tipping well to get some help from the crew to let me focus on doing my thing and not be distracted by anyone else talking about anything else while I take a shot for a triple-parlay on the hard 8.

The thing about this whole conversation is that I am realizing with the contrast between boy's comments and Zcore and Alan's comments that this whole thing is getting very personal.

Commenting that my roll data may not be accurate is a far stretch. I have gone further to prove my rolls are real than anyone. And Zcore, you're welcome to watch the videos and see if you can find one goddamn mistakes. Please, show me don't tell me if you think there is any error.

All the roll data I have lately is from live broadcasts specifically to address the people who might cry that I am cherry picking data. I honestly thought that EVERYONE knew this. But even after investing thousands of dollars to make the point that I am not cherry picking nor have I ever ever done that, I will get suggestions that I could be. Wow.

I threw the dice at home before starting my recording. But There has not been a single session where I typed in my rolls at home with that particular throw that didn't get entered into my database of throws. Even when I am doing all kinds of goofy stuff like holding equipment in my left hand and doing other things that certainly reduced the amount of control, I still used the data.

Ahigh, I don't know how long you've been playing craps or even going to casinos, but some of us who are in our 60s and older have probably played more craps and gone to casinos more than you can imagine.

We've all thrown three or four hard sixes or eights in a row without an easy in between. When you play enough it happens. There is no skill involved.

You are under some impression that you have some magic and until you've proved your magic the rest of us just look at it as "hey, these things happen."

We've all had dealers and boxmen cheer us on. IT'S PART OF THEIR JOB to cheer us on.

Wake up. You're a customer and they look at players like you as being meat to feed their casino machine. Sure they want to encourage you to play and they'll make a big fuss about your lucky wins. Because in the end they know they'll bankrupt you.

I'm sorry for being so harsh with my comments but you're a nice guy who has gotten caught up in a fantasy. Until you can show me some great skill that gives you an advantage I can only think you're an AIT... addict in training.

Good luck to you.

Oh, and regarding your descriptions about how you tip: you could have just said I make two way hardway bets, or make a passline bet for the dealers, or I do a hand in after the session. The rest of your explanation was just another "I want you to know how great a player I am" story.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Ahigh, I don't know...

That's pretty much where you stopped telling me things that are valuable to me. And at least that part of your message I can agree with you on.

I don't think there is a single time I asked you a single question where you gave me an answer that helped me in any way at all!

Why in the WORLD would I be taking unsolicited advice from someone like you?

Just save your typing for something more productive.

Your arrogance speaks for itself.

Quote: AlanMendelson

Your arrogance speaks for itself.

We're both on public display discount shopping expert. If you want to call me names, like "arrogant" go right ahead. Your treading on thin ice as I see it. You might want to use better judgement. What I hear in your posts is something akin to "I lose all the time and you will too."

I am at break-even for three years of craps play plus or minus a couple hundred bucks. What's your lifetime number, expert?

Gentlemen, gentlemen.

I suggest we have a cream pie throwing contest when we meet up at the Sugar Factory.

I'll play Moe ...

Quote: MrV

cream pie throwing contest

Is this anything like BJ at a prom?

Quote: MrV

Gentlemen, gentlemen.

I suggest we have a cream pie throwing contest when we meet up at the Sugar Factory.

I'll play Moe ...

This type of thing happens all the time, random rollers even do it, it's really no big deal to hit a hard-way three times without a soft-way!



Dealers need your tips, that's the only reason they are cheering you on, they are only working for minimum wages. When was the last time one of these dealers that were making a big fuss over you,.. invite you to dinner at their house?

One one major key to winning at craps is to know exactly where you stand with your betting and how the dealers and suits are fussing over you !
You need to read Whale Hunt In the Desert By Deke Castleman
http://procraps4u2.myfanforum.org/about930.html
http://www.amazon.com/Whale-Hunt-...Superhost-Biography/dp/0929712897
That book may open you're eyes as to how anybody that works in a casino feels about the sucker that I standing on the other side of the tables they work!

To Ahigh and everyone else:

Aaron can end this if he simply posts ONE video of a controlled throw and show us why it is controlled. Then I will shut up. In fact, if he can show a video of a controlled throw -- just one -- I will take it off of YouTube and put it on my TV show.

I would love to show it just as much as I would love to reveal where Jimmy Hoffa is buried, and that there was life on Mars, and that there were two gunmen in Dealy Plaza.

Come on Aaron. ONE video.

Quote: AlanMendelson

To Ahigh and everyone else:

Aaron can end this if he simply posts ONE video of a controlled throw and show us why it is controlled. Then I will shut up. In fact, if he can show a video of a controlled throw -- just one -- I will take it off of YouTube and put it on my TV show.

I would love to show it just as much as I would love to reveal where Jimmy Hoffa is buried, and that there was life on Mars, and that there were two gunmen in Dealy Plaza.

Come on Aaron. ONE video.

This sort of sounds like extortion. I'm no expert even on what extortion is, but saying your forcing me to endure the way you are treating me because you want to coerce me into doing something for is a little weird at best.

Also, I would have already spent time doing what you want except for comments from you and others. Specifically the comment from you was that my show was a disaster.

But as far as you taking my work and presenting it, no way, dude. Why don't you do the work yourself? It almost sounds like you want a free ride off my work and are trying to tell me I have to do what you ask or you'll keep hounding me.

Just stifle!

This is a familiar song and dance... you keep asking others to do the "work."

Trouble is, Aaron, I'm not making any claims. You are. Now, as you like to say, show what you've got. Let's see this controlled throw that gives you the magincal edge you claim to have.

Quote: AlanMendelson

I'm not making any claims.

You are claiming that everything that I am experiencing is 100% the result of randomness, are you not?

You are claiming that in the absence of my providing a demonstration of something that you deem as a controlled shot that the controlled shot does not exist!

You are making plenty of claims, including the claim that you are not making any claims!

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/11316-threw-9-hardways-in-ten-rolls/8/#post182782

Since the first video where I showed an extraordinary number of hardways, you have taken your position, and it hasn't changed since. We all know how you feel and it's all about "I want to put it on TV. Look at me! I'm a TV guy."

Since then I broadcast all this stuff on my own while you just continue to talk about it.

Keep talking!

Quote: Ahigh

You are claiming that everything that I am experiencing is 100% the result of randomness, are you not?

You are claiming that in the absence of my providing a demonstration of something that you deem as a controlled shot that the controlled shot does not exist.

Correct. Now show us the controlled shot. You have not showed a controlled shot yet. But I have given you a chance to demonstrate how your shot, which appears not to be controlled, is in fact controlled. Now either you can do it, or you can't. What are you going to do, Captain Ahigh?

Here is a sequence of slow motion videos that Tupp recorded for the show where I specifically set out to roll as many hard tens as possible, and hopefully some back-to-back. I managed to roll four hard tens in 8 throws. These are the eight throws from the show.

http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0299-55.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0300-55.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0301-43.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0302-55.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0303-65.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0304-63.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0305-64.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0306-55.MOV

You can start watching at 1:17:35 in the you tube video to see the above slow motion videos at regular speed (from the link provided hopefully it will just work).

http://youtu.be/jxeKk73zpok?t=1h17m35s

Here's the data from the line of roll data from my blog:

55`55`43`55`65`63`64`55`43`22`61`64`54`63`64`12`63`66`51`12

I failed to include the second hard ten in the above line of data in my roll data previously. I just updated my blog to include it. So there's one more hard ten in the rolls than I had previously accounted for. I don't know if that makes it any less likely statistically that these are not random hard tens, but I suspect that it would.

Quote: rolldata

==> aaron_sr1_2013-04-09-0957pm.txt <==
# Rolls
s 4242
a 61`61`41`63`41`53`65`61`22`65`42`32`42`42`62`51`53`63`12`12`63`66`64`41`43`62`41`62`63`44
a 63`32`42`31`51`52`43`65`61`33`66`52`53`43`41`53`61`43`51`54`52`51`62`63`51`42`42`32`41`51
a 43`44`63`13`43`32`33`41`52`54`53`22`22`51`52`54`53`51`44`52`31`65`43`64`61`54`62`42`12`42
a 44`54`33`61`42`32`44`11`51`51`62`43`65`52`55`63`55`55`63`41`31`11`32`42`64`22`22`63`61`54
a 12`41`42`31`54`42`11`65`41`54`52`23`11`64`64`65`66`62`44`65`52`53`61`12`52`12`54`55`66`32
a 62`64`32`65`62`32`43`52`43`54`52`32`43`43`31`65`55`62`43`31`63`42`43`53`32`61`62`52`62`44
a 65`55`55`43`55`65`63`64`55`43`22`61`64`54`63`64`12`63`66`51`12

The following image is an analysis of the 201 throws from the show. It should have been 200, but I failed to record one of the hard tens.



And finally, here's the link where I first decided I was going to recreate the rolling of many hardways in as few rolls as possible as that was something I had been doing the casino lately.

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/craps/12821-ahigh-show-tuesday-at-7-30pm-pacific-time/67/#post233456

In the above post I recounted rolling 6 tens, 5 of which were hard in a short period of time.

On the show, I rolled 5 tens, 4 of which were hard all in the span of eight throws.

Alan says the show was "a disaster."

I continue to be very annoyed by Alan. I continue to truly not care what the hell this guy thinks. He taught me the acronym PITA for which I can't think of anyone else who more deserves it.

Anything you have to say about how my shot is not controlled, you can take your comments and send them to /dev/null

Your ruse that you have anything at all positive to say about me is as transparent as your pretending to be a nice guy.

I don't like you, Alan. I really and truly do not like you.

"Let's get ready to rummmmmmmmmble!!!!!"

Quote: Ahigh

I don't like you, Alan. I really and truly do not like you.

End what?

Users on this forum including the Wizard and PGDan have met Ahigh and he's a nice guy by all accounts.

His rolls by his account show that he hits his set (which have a 4 or 6 on top) 116 of 3379 times which gives him a player advantage of 15.98% based on the ratio of the hard 8s to soft 8s and 7s. This has a p value of <.005 or about 2.9 sigma. In addition, it appears that the hard off axis rolls (1 and 6) appear the least while on axis 2-3-5 rolls are appearing more often. This correlates that a very small percentage of his throws are ending up on axis. HOWEVER, there is no data to support he throws the 4 (the up number on his set) significantly more often than other numbers.

To get his result, he needs to throw his up set on 1 roll in 132 over the normal 1/36 to experience this positive variance.

He cannot explain that his throw is controlled because he doesn't have a video that shows it. Yet the data supports his hypothesis and he has chosen now to take this theory to the casino.

Now, is Ahigh faking his results and not recording some rolls in order to support his data? Does he have losing sessions? I don't know. I can't speak for him. We all have internet personalities which probably deviate something from our true selves. So personally, I take what he's saying with a shaker of salt, down in Margaritaville. But I pretty much take any internet personality the same.

" You are claiming that everything that I am experiencing is 100% the result of randomness, are you not?"

DUH !

Are you claiming it is not ? Just asking.

Quote: Ahigh

I don't like you, Alan. I really and truly do not like you.

Alan, I'm here for you. Ahigh said the exact thing
to me a few months ago. It hurts at first, to be
rejected by such a fine person. But with therapy
and counseling you'll learn to get over it.

Who am I kidding, being rejected by Ahigh is like
being rejected by the neighbors I never met. In
the scheme of things, its less than meaningless..

Quote: Ahigh

long rant

It's when Ahigh puts on long stuff around here when it becomes clear of why he invites criticism. The above roll set is meaningless and the accompanying pretty graphs are meaningless as well.

The long roll set that he posts in his blog is meaningful, if true.

Alan is saying that your show is a disaster because it shows no dice control, in his opinion. And 5 tens in the span of 8 throws is not impossible or outside of the scope of randomness. And when I look at the videos in slow mo, I see:

- the first set of 5-5 indeed land on axis as 3-3 but the dice have different momemtum after that that cause the dice to hit the back wall at different places with different reactions that effectively randomize the dice.
- the second 5-5 lands off axis with a two three, and indeed it appears that the dice hit each other before luckily hitting 5-5. So, so far two hard tens in a row is at 36:1.
- the 3rd 5-5 lands off axis as well and diverge.
- the 4th 5-5 is the most interesting roll and demonstrates a controllish throw where the dice land together, hit the back wall together, and have similar action together.

So of the four hard 10s, only the last one looks somewhat controlled. The other three appear to be random.

In a 200 roll set, the odds of throwing the same 4 hard ways in 8 throws is something of the order of 108:1, which is nothing outside the realm of probability. And of course there is a string of 20 throws in a row with no hard ways too.

If Alan is such a PITA as you put it, then just block him.

You're in control of what you write and what you react to.

Quote: Ahigh

It almost sounds like you want a free ride off my work

It's all about making money off of you. On the table, on air, whatever.

Quote: boymimbo

HOWEVER, there is no data to support he throws the 4 (the up number on his set) significantly more often than other numbers.

Here's the output from my software transforming my roll data for the 4242 set.



Total rolls: 3399
1) 1137 16.73% - 16.67 = (+0.06)--------------------------------------------------- 1
2) 1128 16.59% - 16.67 = (-0.07)-------------------------------------------------- 2
3) 1118 16.45% - 16.67 = (-0.22)-------------------------------------------------- 3
4) 1156 17.01% - 16.67 = (+0.34)---------------------------------------------------- 4
5) 1140 16.77% - 16.67 = (+0.10)--------------------------------------------------- 5
6) 1119 16.46% - 16.67 = (-0.21)-------------------------------------------------- 6
X**2: 0.92 p: 0.96891
fw 1137,1128,1118,1156,1140,1119 1137,1128,1118,1156,1140,1119

11: ------------------------------------------- 2 (85)
21: --------------------------------------------------- 3 (204)
22: ------------------------------------------------- 4 (98)
31: ---------------------------------------------- 4 (184)
32: ----------------------------------------------- 5 (188)
41: ------------------------------------------------ 5 (192)
33: ---------------------------------------------- 6 (92)
42: ---------------------------------------------- 6 (183)
51: ------------------------------------------------- 6 (195)
61: ------------------------------------------------ 7 (192)
52: ------------------------------------------- 7 (170)
43: ------------------------------------------- 7 (169)
53: ------------------------------------------------- 8 (196)
44: ------------------------------------------------------------ 8 (119)
62: ----------------------------------------------- 8 (187)
63: -------------------------------------------------- 9 (197)
54: ----------------------------------------------- 9 (187)
55: ----------------------------------------------------- 10 (105)
64: ----------------------------------------------- 10 (187)
65: ---------------------------------------------- 11 (182)
66: -------------------------------------------- 12 (87)
X**2: 16.03 p: 0.71493

2) 85 2.50% - 2.78% = -0.28% (-9.42)-------- 2
3) 204 6.00% - 5.56% = 0.45% (+15.17)------------------- 3
4) 282 8.30% - 8.33% = -0.04% (-1.25)------------------------- 4
5) 380 11.18% - 11.11% = 0.07% (+2.33)---------------------------------- 5
6) 470 13.83% - 13.89% = -0.06% (-2.08)------------------------------------------ 6
7) 531 15.62% - 16.67% = -1.04% (-35.50)----------------------------------------------- 7
8) 502 14.77% - 13.89% = 0.88% (+29.92)--------------------------------------------- 8
9) 384 11.30% - 11.11% = 0.19% (+6.33)---------------------------------- 9
10) 292 8.59% - 8.33% = 0.26% (+8.75)--------------------------10
11) 182 5.35% - 5.56% = -0.20% (-6.83)-----------------11
12) 87 2.56% - 2.78% = -0.22% (-7.42)--------12
X**2: 7.51 p: 0.67626

4:7 ratio is 53.107% - 50.000% = +3.107% (+6.21% diff)
5:7 ratio is 71.563% - 66.667% = +4.896% (+7.34% diff)
6:7 ratio is 88.512% - 83.333% = +5.179% (+6.21% diff)
8:7 ratio is 94.539% - 83.333% = +11.205% (+13.45% diff)
9:7 ratio is 72.316% - 66.667% = +5.650% (+8.47% diff)
10:7 ratio is 54.991% - 50.000% = +4.991% (+9.98% diff)
X**2: 4.49 p: 0.61105

Observed: 531.0 sevens - 2868.0 non sevens RSR 6.4011
Expected: 566.5 sevens - 2832.5 non sevens RSR 6.0000
X**2: 2.67 p: 0.10228

Seven outs 373 (70.24%) - Seven winners 158 (29.76%)
Pairs 586 17.24% - 16.67% = 0.57% (+19.50 rolls)
Hards 414 12.18% - 11.11% = 1.07% (+36.33 rolls)
HiLos 172 5.06% - 5.56% = -0.50% (-16.83 rolls)
H2 85/22 ( 2.50% - 2.78% = -9.42)
H4 98/21 ( 2.88% - 2.78% = +3.58)
H6 92/27 ( 2.71% - 2.78% = -2.42)
H8 119/26 ( 3.50% - 2.78% = +24.58)
H10 105/38 ( 3.09% - 2.78% = +10.58)
H12 87/23 ( 2.56% - 2.78% = -7.42)
EZ: 2813 (82.76% - 83.33% = -19.50)
X**2: 9.44 p: 0.15026

Ahigh for the umpteenth time: you have been lucky. You are not a dice controller. If you said "Ive been lucky and here's why..." I would have no dispute with you. But you claim to have some method to your randomness.

You are the craps equivalent of Rob Singer, the video poker player who claims to have won nearly a million dollars over ten years playing "unconventionally" to say the least.

Rob also claims he won because of a system-- his unconventional system. That is much like you claiming to have won because of dice control. But if Rob said he won because he got lucky no one would fault him. And if you said you won because you got lucky, I would not fault you.

Now, there are two camps here. There are those who think you have some magic touch because you got lucky. And then there are those who said you got lucky but you don't have any magic touch.

The poker saying "better lucky than good" comes to mind here. In craps you are not good as a dice controller, but you are lucky, and you can say "better lucky than good" and I don't dispute it.

By the way, Rob Singer also has his followers, yet I don't know of any players besides Rob who have reported the consistent wins that Rob claims to have. Perhaps this means that luck cannot be transferred from one player to another.

Regarding what some others posted:

Quote: boymimbo

He cannot explain that his throw is controlled because he doesn't have a video that shows it. Yet the data supports his hypothesis and he has chosen now to take this theory to the casino.

Again I want to point out that completely random shooters can have excellent results. I am not going to say that Ahigh lied about his results. I just challenge his claim for controlling the dice.

Ahigh I want to know if you think you have an advantage when playing craps at the casino if so can you estimate what percent?

Take a look at his last hard 10 in the set of 8 where he makes the meaningless claim that he threw 4 Hard 10s in 8 rolls.

That roll shows the die landing on axis, hitting the wall together, and the dice react the same, with the same numbers rotating in the air. Now, if you can pull a throw off like that 1 time in every 108 rolls, you can lower your SRR from 6:1 to 6.35:1. I don't know if that is a "controlled throw".

I have to, HAVE TO!, give him credit for videotaping his rolls and putting a set out there WHICH nobody else has.

At 2.8 sigmas away from norm, you have to open your mind and think that what he's doing *might* be more than luck.

To put it in context, what he is doing has the same probability of throwing 9 heads in 11 trials.

If Ahigh gets lucky when he plays then good for him. I hope he does get lucky. He seems like a nice guy but not one of these is controlled:

http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0299-55.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0300-55.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0301-43.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0302-55.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0303-65.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0304-63.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0305-64.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0306-55.MOV

Here I am on a Southwest flight from Las Vegas to Ohio. I paid the $8 for the in-flight WiFi to kill time during the four-hour flight. It was money well spend because I stumbled across this gem of a post:

Quote: Ahigh

The stick man started talking to another dealer about one of the staff having gout, and I reminded the stick man, hey stick help me focus I'm trying to roll a hard 8.

The stick man ignored me, mostly, and I threw a seven.

I then said politely, "hey stick I need your help to focus in and call these numbers for me." I then tipped them another dollar and said "lock it up" as I reprimanded the stick man.

Ahigh reprimanded the stickman??? because he wasn't focusing on Ahigh during his roll???

ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME!!!!!

Copernicus had it all wrong- the sun isn't the center......It's Ahigh!

Quote: MakingBook

ARE YOU FREAKING KIDDING ME!!!!!

Nope, he was working for Ahigh at a table with no other players. My stick man!!!

I don't tip for nothing....

Quote: AlanMendelson

He seems like a nice guy but not one of these is controlled:

http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0299-55.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0300-55.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0301-43.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0302-55.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0303-65.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0304-63.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0305-64.MOV
http://www.goodshooter.com/movies/CIMG0306-55.MOV

Let me complete your sentence, "in my myopic view of the universe."

Why not add, "and I define reality for all my viewers."

If you were to admit otherwise, you would have to apologize for your "disaster" comment. At least one other person says there's a possibility that this is evidence of control, which makes your "disaster" comment pretty much a lie from someone who doesn't even know what the show was about!!!

By pretty much any account, Alan, you're a hater.

Quote: Ahigh

By pretty much any account, Alan, you're a hater.

Perhaps.

Alan hates fuzzy thinking.

Alan hates "all hat and no cattle."

Alan hates it when a crapsters' mouth writes a check his arm can't cash.

Make that two of us.

Quote: MrV

Perhaps.

Alan hates fuzzy thinking.

Alan hates "all hat and no cattle."

Alan hates it when a crapsters' mouth writes a check his arm can't cash.

Make that two of us.

Really? I stated that EARLIER THAT DAY at the Silverton on a table JUST LIKE MINE I rolled 6 tens, 5 of them hard one of them easy and two back-to-back and I wanted to recreate this at home.

I went home and got 5 tens in ten throws, 4 of them hard in fewer than 200 rolls of attempts! How is that a mouth that my arm can't cash? Did you read the messages where I said what I was trying to do?

This was also a live show I would like to remind you. Not a cherry picked video as I am sure I would be accused of if it were not done live.

Listen, you guys are just critics consulting the cliff notes of other critics.

The "all hat and no cattle" is the criticisms.

Here's my cattle...




it's locked up in the stable.