Wizard
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February 2nd, 2011 at 9:55:48 AM permalink
I'd like to submit for consideration for the worst casino bet ever the pick-10 "stimulus" keno bet at Harrah's Las Vegas. It costs 5¢ and pays $15,000 for catching all 10. There are no consolation prizes for catching 9 or less.

The probability of winning is combin(20,10)/combin(80,10) = 1 in 8911711.

The expected win is $15,000 × (1/8911711) = $0.00168318.

The expected return is $0.00168318/$0.05 = 3.37%. That is a house edge of 96.63%!

As a runner up, I would submit the former Million Dollar Parlay Card at the Golden Nugget. It cost $20 and paid $1,000,000 for picking correctly 20 games against the spread/total. Again, no consolation prizes. For a random picker, here are the odds:

The probability of winning is (1/2)^20 = 1 in 1048576.

The expected win is $1,000,000 × (1/1048576) = $0.953674316.

The expected return is $0.953674316/$20 = 4.77%. That is a house edge of 95.23%!

Those are the worst I know about, but welcome other submissions.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
MathExtremist
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February 2nd, 2011 at 9:57:02 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'd like to submit for consideration for the worst casino bet ever the pick-10 "stimulus" keno bet at Harrah's Las Vegas. It costs 5¢ and pays $15,000 for catching all 10. There are no consolation prizes for catching 9 or less.

The probability of winning is combin(20,10)/combin(80,10) = 1 in 8911711.

The expected win is 0.05 × (1/8911711) = 0.00168318.

The expected return is 0.00168318/0.05 = 3.37%. That is a house edge of 96.63%!

That is the worst I know about, but welcome other submissions.



How is that legal? NV statutes require minimum payback to be 75%...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizard
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February 2nd, 2011 at 10:04:21 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

How is that legal? NV statutes require minimum payback to be 75%...



Keno is a grandfathered game. It was around before the 75% rule was put in place, so it doesn't have to abide by it.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
Ayecarumba
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February 2nd, 2011 at 10:10:12 AM permalink
I dimly recall a "trucker's special" 15 spot keno that was in that neighborhood.... I'll have to do some checking.
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rdw4potus
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February 2nd, 2011 at 10:16:26 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Keno is a grandfathered game. It was around before the 75% rule was put in place, so it doesn't have to abide by it.



How does that work? Is the whole class of games grandfathered? If I were going to open a brand new Keno game, would it have to return 75%? For example, if the Cosmo offered Keno, could they mimic the Stimulus game or would they have to meet the 75% threshold?
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Doc
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February 2nd, 2011 at 10:20:54 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

... The expected win is $0.05 × (1/8911711) = $0.00168318. ...


Typo.

$15k, not $0.05. The result is correct.
Wizard
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February 2nd, 2011 at 10:21:45 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

How does that work? Is the whole class of games grandfathered? If I were going to open a brand new Keno game, would it have to return 75%? For example, if the Cosmo offered Keno, could they mimic the Stimulus game or would they have to meet the 75% threshold?



I think it is the game that is grandfathered, not the casino. So I claim the Cosmo could mimic that game legally. Keep in mind I'm not a lawyer, so take anything I say in regard to the law with a grain of salt.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
P90
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February 2nd, 2011 at 10:26:31 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'd like to submit for consideration for the worst casino bet ever the pick-10 "stimulus" keno bet at Harrah's Las Vegas. It costs 5¢ and pays $15,000 for catching all 10. There are no consolation prizes for catching 9 or less.
The expected return is $0.953674316/$20 = 4.77%.


Wow. That's probably even worse return on investment than the government stimulus. But one still has to appreciate the boldness in naming.
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thlf
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February 2nd, 2011 at 10:46:48 AM permalink
Doesn't the stations have a 15 team parlay that pays 100k for 15 of 15 and nothing else?
Wizard
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February 2nd, 2011 at 11:02:58 AM permalink
Quote: thlf

Doesn't the stations have a 15 team parlay that pays 100k for 15 of 15 and nothing else?



I don't know. That would be worth $3.05. How much did it cost?
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thlf
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February 2nd, 2011 at 11:04:20 AM permalink
Sorry

$5
MathExtremist
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February 2nd, 2011 at 11:12:14 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Keno is a grandfathered game. It was around before the 75% rule was put in place, so it doesn't have to abide by it.



Hmm. Roulette was around before the 75% rule was put in place too, but I doubt the casino could legally get away with paying even-money on inside numbers. That'd be a 94.7% edge, almost as bad as that keno bet. I wonder if there isn't some inconsistency in the regulations somewhere...
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thlf
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February 2nd, 2011 at 11:24:01 AM permalink
Perhaps it is part of the super secret out of the publics eye regulations.
P90
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February 2nd, 2011 at 11:31:25 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Hmm. Roulette was around before the 75% rule was put in place too, but I doubt the casino could legally get away with paying even-money on inside numbers.


Most certainly it could. But who would play that game? First American Roulette wheels used to have three zero fields. But the ripoff was so obvious they just couldn't get away with offering that even in the wild, wild West. It wasn't a single entrepreneur deciding to offer 00, people just didn't play it. Frankly I'm slightly surprised even 00 gets any play, Europeans don't run a single 0 for no reason. But then there always is the Russian version, of course, just to remind you things could always be worse.
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Ayecarumba
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February 2nd, 2011 at 12:07:30 PM permalink
I wonder if Keno gets around the minimum return requirement because the base bet: pick 1, returns 3, which is 75%
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Nareed
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February 2nd, 2011 at 12:51:20 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

The expected return is $0.00168318/$0.05 = 3.37%. That is a house edge of 96.63%!




Suddenly my EZLotto, which is designed to fleece the players, looks good! ;)
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P90
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February 2nd, 2011 at 12:57:31 PM permalink
Well, there is always the 419 Bet, which costs $50-$20,000 to make and pays $30,000,000-$1,500,000,000 with a 0% probability.
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Mosca
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February 2nd, 2011 at 1:07:17 PM permalink
Quote: Wizard

I'd like to submit for consideration for the worst casino bet ever the pick-10 "stimulus" keno bet at Harrah's Las Vegas. It costs 5¢ and pays $15,000 for catching all 10. There are no consolation prizes for catching 9 or less.

The probability of winning is combin(20,10)/combin(80,10) = 1 in 8911711.

The expected win is $15,000 × (1/8911711) = $0.00168318.

The expected return is $0.00168318/$0.05 = 3.37%. That is a house edge of 96.63%!

As a runner up, I would submit the former Million Dollar Parlay Card at the Golden Nugget. It cost $20 and paid $1,000,000 for picking correctly 20 games against the spread/total. Again, no consolation prizes. For a random picker, here are the odds:

The probability of winning is (1/2)^20 = 1 in 1048576.

The expected win is $1,000,000 × (1/1048576) = $0.953674316.

The expected return is $0.953674316/$20 = 4.77%. That is a house edge of 95.23%!

Those are the worst I know about, but welcome other submissions.



You're probably expecting this, so I'll bite... you probably expected it to be me, even!

Yeah, the odds are awful. But it's only a nickel. So, it might be the worst odds you've ever seen, but odds are only one dimension of the worst bet. A nickel is insignificant. Losing a nickel is like leaving a couple french fries on the plate because you feel full. There are lots of bets worse than that. Not worse odds, but worse bets. A single pull on any $5 slot, for example.

Now, play that nickel 100 times, and that group of bets is a bad bet. But a single toss of 5 cents? Naw.
A falling knife has no handle.
DJTeddyBear
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February 2nd, 2011 at 1:21:00 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Yeah, the odds are awful. But it's only a nickel.

He's got a point.

Out of curiosity, on the normal Keno, what's a minimum bet, and how much does a 10 spot pay for hitting all 10?
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Wizard
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February 2nd, 2011 at 1:58:57 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

Now, play that nickel 100 times, and that group of bets is a bad bet. But a single toss of 5 cents? Naw.



You have to bet the same 10 numbers a minimum of 100 consecutive games. So $5 minimum. However, for purposes of my competition, I'm going by house edge only.
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Thoughtcast
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February 2nd, 2011 at 2:04:46 PM permalink
I can't quite match the house edges on the Wizard's games, however I do know of a Craps game with a house edge up to 91.67%.

Casino New Brunswick has a single craps table with limits of $5.00 - $1,000.00 and standard 345 odds. Unfortunately they have posted below the limit sign, a note stating that the maximum payout on any bet is only 3x the table max.

I don't see anyone making large center bets with that kind of payout limit.
Mosca
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February 2nd, 2011 at 2:06:37 PM permalink
OK, now it starts to make sense. I was sitting here thinking about how many 5 cent bets Harrah's would have to book in a week just to make it worthwhile for someone to keep track of the game!
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Doc
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February 2nd, 2011 at 2:32:55 PM permalink
Quote: Thoughtcast

I can't quite match the house edges on the Wizard's games, however I do know of a Craps game with a house edge up to 91.67%.

Casino New Brunswick has a single craps table with limits of $5.00 - $1,000.00 and standard 345 odds. Unfortunately they have posted below the limit sign, a note stating that the maximum payout on any bet is only 3x the table max.

I don't see anyone making large center bets with that kind of payout limit.


Interesting. I visited Casino New Brunswick late one afternoon last September when I was passing through the Moncton area. The crap table wasn't going to open until later in the evening, so I just played blackjack for a while and collected my souvenir $1 chip. Of course, if my table of choice had actually been open, the $3k payout limit on a single bet would not have penalized my play at all. (If anyone anywhere is making $1,000 prop bets on the 2, they must be doing it at tables where I don't play.)
RaleighCraps
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February 2nd, 2011 at 3:26:19 PM permalink
Hey Doc,
A $300 yo bet would be enough to make you rue that 3x limit, seeing as you would only get $3,000, instead of the $4,500 you had coming.

Hopping numbers would also not take much of a bet to hit a $3k payout limit.
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Doc
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February 2nd, 2011 at 4:16:44 PM permalink
Yes, Raleigh, you are correct, but as I said, it wouldn't penalize my play at all. I have never in my life made a $300 yo bet. (Don't you remember watching my play?) I mentioned $1k prop bets on the 2 (one of the few bets for the 91.67% HE), but yes, anything over $100 on the 2 (or any hardway hop) would get shortchanged at least some. I've never placed that bet either, and as I said, if anyone is making such bets even for "just" a black chip and not $1k, they aren't doing it at the tables where I play.
mkl654321
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February 2nd, 2011 at 7:32:26 PM permalink
Quote: thlf

Perhaps it is part of the super secret out of the publics eye regulations.



And to think we drove away the only individual who could have enlightened us about that.
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February 2nd, 2011 at 9:10:32 PM permalink
Not a casino bet, but the Heart and Stroke Lottery in Ontario is running a lottery with $17,187,500 in proceeds and 4,155,000 in prizes for an expected return of $.241 on the dollar.
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