Worst Casino Bet Ever
The probability of winning is combin(20,10)/combin(80,10) = 1 in 8911711.
The expected win is $15,000 × (1/8911711) = $0.00168318.
The expected return is $0.00168318/$0.05 = 3.37%. That is a house edge of 96.63%!
As a runner up, I would submit the former Million Dollar Parlay Card at the Golden Nugget. It cost $20 and paid $1,000,000 for picking correctly 20 games against the spread/total. Again, no consolation prizes. For a random picker, here are the odds:
The probability of winning is (1/2)^20 = 1 in 1048576.
The expected win is $1,000,000 × (1/1048576) = $0.953674316.
The expected return is $0.953674316/$20 = 4.77%. That is a house edge of 95.23%!
Those are the worst I know about, but welcome other submissions.
Quote: WizardI'd like to submit for consideration for the worst casino bet ever the pick-10 "stimulus" keno bet at Harrah's Las Vegas. It costs 5¢ and pays $15,000 for catching all 10. There are no consolation prizes for catching 9 or less.
The probability of winning is combin(20,10)/combin(80,10) = 1 in 8911711.
The expected win is 0.05 × (1/8911711) = 0.00168318.
The expected return is 0.00168318/0.05 = 3.37%. That is a house edge of 96.63%!
That is the worst I know about, but welcome other submissions.
How is that legal? NV statutes require minimum payback to be 75%...
Quote: MathExtremistHow is that legal? NV statutes require minimum payback to be 75%...
Keno is a grandfathered game. It was around before the 75% rule was put in place, so it doesn't have to abide by it.
Quote: WizardKeno is a grandfathered game. It was around before the 75% rule was put in place, so it doesn't have to abide by it.
How does that work? Is the whole class of games grandfathered? If I were going to open a brand new Keno game, would it have to return 75%? For example, if the Cosmo offered Keno, could they mimic the Stimulus game or would they have to meet the 75% threshold?
Quote: Wizard... The expected win is $0.05 × (1/8911711) = $0.00168318. ...
Typo.
$15k, not $0.05. The result is correct.
Quote: rdw4potusHow does that work? Is the whole class of games grandfathered? If I were going to open a brand new Keno game, would it have to return 75%? For example, if the Cosmo offered Keno, could they mimic the Stimulus game or would they have to meet the 75% threshold?
I think it is the game that is grandfathered, not the casino. So I claim the Cosmo could mimic that game legally. Keep in mind I'm not a lawyer, so take anything I say in regard to the law with a grain of salt.
Quote: WizardI'd like to submit for consideration for the worst casino bet ever the pick-10 "stimulus" keno bet at Harrah's Las Vegas. It costs 5¢ and pays $15,000 for catching all 10. There are no consolation prizes for catching 9 or less.
The expected return is $0.953674316/$20 = 4.77%.
Wow. That's probably even worse return on investment than the government stimulus. But one still has to appreciate the boldness in naming.
Quote: thlfDoesn't the stations have a 15 team parlay that pays 100k for 15 of 15 and nothing else?
I don't know. That would be worth $3.05. How much did it cost?
$5
Quote: WizardKeno is a grandfathered game. It was around before the 75% rule was put in place, so it doesn't have to abide by it.
Hmm. Roulette was around before the 75% rule was put in place too, but I doubt the casino could legally get away with paying even-money on inside numbers. That'd be a 94.7% edge, almost as bad as that keno bet. I wonder if there isn't some inconsistency in the regulations somewhere...
Quote: MathExtremistHmm. Roulette was around before the 75% rule was put in place too, but I doubt the casino could legally get away with paying even-money on inside numbers.
Most certainly it could. But who would play that game? First American Roulette wheels used to have three zero fields. But the ripoff was so obvious they just couldn't get away with offering that even in the wild, wild West. It wasn't a single entrepreneur deciding to offer 00, people just didn't play it. Frankly I'm slightly surprised even 00 gets any play, Europeans don't run a single 0 for no reason. But then there always is the Russian version, of course, just to remind you things could always be worse.
Quote: WizardThe expected return is $0.00168318/$0.05 = 3.37%. That is a house edge of 96.63%!
Suddenly my EZLotto, which is designed to fleece the players, looks good! ;)
Quote: WizardI'd like to submit for consideration for the worst casino bet ever the pick-10 "stimulus" keno bet at Harrah's Las Vegas. It costs 5¢ and pays $15,000 for catching all 10. There are no consolation prizes for catching 9 or less.
The probability of winning is combin(20,10)/combin(80,10) = 1 in 8911711.
The expected win is $15,000 × (1/8911711) = $0.00168318.
The expected return is $0.00168318/$0.05 = 3.37%. That is a house edge of 96.63%!
As a runner up, I would submit the former Million Dollar Parlay Card at the Golden Nugget. It cost $20 and paid $1,000,000 for picking correctly 20 games against the spread/total. Again, no consolation prizes. For a random picker, here are the odds:
The probability of winning is (1/2)^20 = 1 in 1048576.
The expected win is $1,000,000 × (1/1048576) = $0.953674316.
The expected return is $0.953674316/$20 = 4.77%. That is a house edge of 95.23%!
Those are the worst I know about, but welcome other submissions.
You're probably expecting this, so I'll bite... you probably expected it to be me, even!
Yeah, the odds are awful. But it's only a nickel. So, it might be the worst odds you've ever seen, but odds are only one dimension of the worst bet. A nickel is insignificant. Losing a nickel is like leaving a couple french fries on the plate because you feel full. There are lots of bets worse than that. Not worse odds, but worse bets. A single pull on any $5 slot, for example.
Now, play that nickel 100 times, and that group of bets is a bad bet. But a single toss of 5 cents? Naw.
He's got a point.Quote: MoscaYeah, the odds are awful. But it's only a nickel.
Out of curiosity, on the normal Keno, what's a minimum bet, and how much does a 10 spot pay for hitting all 10?
Quote: MoscaNow, play that nickel 100 times, and that group of bets is a bad bet. But a single toss of 5 cents? Naw.
You have to bet the same 10 numbers a minimum of 100 consecutive games. So $5 minimum. However, for purposes of my competition, I'm going by house edge only.
Casino New Brunswick has a single craps table with limits of $5.00 - $1,000.00 and standard 345 odds. Unfortunately they have posted below the limit sign, a note stating that the maximum payout on any bet is only 3x the table max.
I don't see anyone making large center bets with that kind of payout limit.
Quote: ThoughtcastI can't quite match the house edges on the Wizard's games, however I do know of a Craps game with a house edge up to 91.67%.
Casino New Brunswick has a single craps table with limits of $5.00 - $1,000.00 and standard 345 odds. Unfortunately they have posted below the limit sign, a note stating that the maximum payout on any bet is only 3x the table max.
I don't see anyone making large center bets with that kind of payout limit.
Interesting. I visited Casino New Brunswick late one afternoon last September when I was passing through the Moncton area. The crap table wasn't going to open until later in the evening, so I just played blackjack for a while and collected my souvenir $1 chip. Of course, if my table of choice had actually been open, the $3k payout limit on a single bet would not have penalized my play at all. (If anyone anywhere is making $1,000 prop bets on the 2, they must be doing it at tables where I don't play.)
A $300 yo bet would be enough to make you rue that 3x limit, seeing as you would only get $3,000, instead of the $4,500 you had coming.
Hopping numbers would also not take much of a bet to hit a $3k payout limit.
Quote: thlfPerhaps it is part of the super secret out of the publics eye regulations.
And to think we drove away the only individual who could have enlightened us about that.
