Measuring Your Win
For example, if I go in with $40 and leave with $60 then I have three choices of how to view it:
1. Profit Interpretation ($20) I left with $20 more than what I started with, so it is a $20 success.
2. Cash in Hand Interpretation ($60) I left with $60 in hand when I was prepared to leave with nothing, so it is a $60 success.
3. Spread Interpretation ($100) If I had lost I would have walked out negative $40, so since Im leaving with positive $60 it is really a $100 success.
Mathematically (and economically), I sure method #1 is the factual way. But the other two methods make some sense as well (in my mind anyway). And, not surprisingly, I like the sound/feeling of a $100 success more than a $20 success. ;)
Do most folks only count the pure profit they won, or are there other folks like myself who like to kind of consider not losing something as part of the win?
Your math in the "Spread Interpretation" is double-dipping.
It made sense in my mind when I didn't think about it too much, but now I see using that particular method would result in an "$80 success" if I just broke even and walked out with the original $40 in my wallet. And I know I've never treated a break-even situation that way.
Dang, ya'll just cost me a mental $40 on my wins from here on forward. ;)
4. You lost exactly the expected value of the game you played. If you played 100 hands of blackjack at $10, you lost exactly $5, no matter what amount of money you walked out with.
That's definitely the hardest one to get your head around mentally, but it's also the most technically apropos.
Quote: teddysYou need a fourth option.
4. You lost exactly the expected value of the game you played. If you played 100 hands of blackjack at $10, you lost exactly $5, no matter what amount of money you walked out with.
That's definitely the hardest one to get your head around mentally, but it's also the most technically apropos.
But the actual results of play are the only thing that really matter to one's bankroll -- you can't buy a hot dog with your theoretical win. I'd advise option #5: deviation from expectation, or actual - theo. Or, in lay terms, "how did I do compared to where I should have been after that session?" So if you played 100 hands of blackjack at $10, and you ended +$20, you're $25 ahead of the average result of -$5. This is similar to option #1, but it recognizes that the average result baseline doesn't stay static at zero. It creeps downward as you play, in your example 5 cents at a time. It also recognizes that a $25 win after 5 hands is less impressive than a $25 win after 1000 hands.
Quote: teddysYou need a fourth option.
4. You lost exactly the expected value of the game you played. If you played 100 hands of blackjack at $10, you lost exactly $5, no matter what amount of money you walked out with.
That's definitely the hardest one to get your head around mentally, but it's also the most technically apropos.
No you didn't. You won or lost what you won or lost. PRIOR to play your expected loss is $5. Afterwards, you have what you have, which may be more or less than expected.
Expected value is a calculation done prior to the bet. Actual value is what you end up with. Expected no longer matters, you have what you have.
I disagree. To paraphrase the Wizard, it's not whether you won or lost, it's how good your bet was. If a card counter is playing a +1.2% game, he is going to evaluate each session according to his expected hourly win. If he finishes up $20K, or down $8K, it shouldn't matter since he is playing a positive game.Quote: thecesspitNo you didn't. You won or lost what you won or lost. PRIOR to play your expected loss is $5. Afterwards, you have what you have, which may be more or less than expected.
Expected value is a calculation done prior to the bet. Actual value is what you end up with. Expected no longer matters, you have what you have.
This is the way one should look at it; I'm not saying anybody except for the most advanced gamblers do. Emotions will often get in the way.
Quote: blount2000For example, if I go in with $40 and leave with $60 then I have three choices of how to view it:
I could add another way of looking at things, which is something I sometimes do, and that has to do with what points you were at during the play of the session. For example, if you started with $40, and at some point were at $100, and then left at $60, you could interpret that to mean that you theoretically lost $40, as you could have walked away with $100.
For me, this usually happens in a post-betting-regret way. My typical example is that I sit down at the blackjack table with $100, and figure if I get up to $200, I'm going to walk away. However, a particularly hot shoe, and good luck, brings me to a point of $300. At that point, I figure I was willing to walk with $200, which still represents a net profit for me, so I might as well see if the next shoe is going to be hot as well. Of course, it's not. I stick to my determination, and walk away with the $200, but an inside voice will still yell at me for not having left at $300.
I also try to use this argument on a friend of mine, who enjoys slots. He'll start with $20, and get up to $100 or so, then lose it all back. He says he only lost $20, which is technically true, but I try to remind him that he could have walked away with $100, so in a way, he lost $100.
Quote: teddysI disagree. To paraphrase the Wizard, it's not whether you won or lost, it's how good your bet was. If a card counter is playing a +1.2% game, he is going to evaluate each session according to his expected hourly win. If he finishes up $20K, or down $8K, it shouldn't matter since he is playing a positive game.
This is the way one should look at it; I'm not saying anybody except for the most advanced gamblers do. Emotions will often get in the way.
I also disagree with this. In the long run, your average return will be 1.2% - that's due to the Law of Large Numbers. But for your one session, the Law of Large Numbers does not apply as the sample is too small. Your win is whatever it is, be it +$20K over your theoretical advantage, or whatever.
You need to separate your "expected win" and your "actual win". To very different things!
Quote: teddysIf he finishes up $20K, or down $8K, it shouldn't matter since he is playing a positive game.
EXACTLY! No matter what I do TODAY...I know that over the course of, say a year, I am playing at a rate of $20 per hour (to the good)
Quote: teddysI disagree. To paraphrase the Wizard, it's not whether you won or lost, it's how good your bet was. If a card counter is playing a +1.2% game, he is going to evaluate each session according to his expected hourly win. If he finishes up $20K, or down $8K, it shouldn't matter since he is playing a positive game.
This is the way one should look at it; I'm not saying anybody except for the most advanced gamblers do. Emotions will often get in the way.
I get what you're saying teddy, but even a pro gambler has to record his actual results in one column, and his theoretical results in another. Even for the most dispassionate, logical gambler, you have to acknowledge variance in the short term.
Quote: MathExtremistI'd advise option #5: deviation from expectation, or actual - theo. Or, in lay terms, "how did I do compared to where I should have been after that session?" So if you played 100 hands of blackjack at $10, and you ended +$20, you're $25 ahead of the average result of -$5. This is similar to option #1, but it recognizes that the average result baseline doesn't stay static at zero. It creeps downward as you play, in your example 5 cents at a time. It also recognizes that a $25 win after 5 hands is less impressive than a $25 win after 1000 hands.
I like this one. For my last trip to Vegas I meant to calculate my theoretical loss/hour and keep track of how many free drinks I consumed and how many comps I got. I didn't get around to it, but I hope to next trip.
But for your own records, it's a good idea to keep track of your actual results AND your expected results, such as in two adjacent columns in a spreadsheet.
Quote: teddysI disagree. To paraphrase the Wizard, it's not whether you won or lost, it's how good your bet was. If a card counter is playing a +1.2% game, he is going to evaluate each session according to his expected hourly win. If he finishes up $20K, or down $8K, it shouldn't matter since he is playing a positive game.
It matters. Playing with the best of it still means you can lose. I agree that tracking theoretical and actual is a good way of looking at it.
But 8k is 8k is 8k. If your theo is a 5k win, but you lose 6k that night, you'd be daft to go spend that 5k "win". And if your theo was 5k and you win 17k, you are probably as daft to go spend the 12k extra... but it's still what your bank roll will show.
Quote:This is the way one should look at it; I'm not saying anybody except for the most advanced gamblers do. Emotions will often get in the way.
Quote: AcesAndEightsI like this one. For my last trip to Vegas I meant to calculate my theoretical loss/hour and keep track of how many free drinks I consumed and how many comps I got. I didn't get around to it, but I hope to next trip.
For me this is easy. In Vegas, $10 craps costs me somewhere between $10-15/hour in theo (pass + sometimes come bets w/ odds). If I get 2 drinks per hour -- usually Johnnie Walker Black, Macallan 12 if they have it -- and any comps whatsoever, my overall theo is ahead of the game assuming you go with retail on the drinks. I'm not suggesting I'm an advantage player in the typical sense, but I'm usually getting goods and services worth at least $15/hour objectively, and more to me because I like playing craps.
Since I go knowing I can lose, the only thing that really irritates me is when I fail to have the discipline to lock in a win or an even session. We know the deal...you get behind, there is a good roll, your chips are stacking up and you're doubled up. Losing all or most of that is what I really feel is a bigger loss than losing straight away. it is a lack of discipline...
Quote: teddysI disagree. To paraphrase the Wizard, it's not whether you won or lost, it's how good your bet was. If a card counter is playing a +1.2% game, he is going to evaluate each session according to his expected hourly win. If he finishes up $20K, or down $8K, it shouldn't matter since he is playing a positive game.
This is the way one should look at it; I'm not saying anybody except for the most advanced gamblers do. Emotions will often get in the way.
"I disagree. To paraphrase the Wizard" >>> Geeeeeez
Ken
In reality, I take What I Arrive With and compare it to What I Left With... If its a win that is good. Even if its a loss, I say that was the price of the entertainment, drinks, food, and general mental hygiene break.
