Whitec
Whitec
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April 9th, 2011 at 7:24:46 AM permalink
I have an odds or probability question when it comes to the 6 on the come out roll. I play 6's hopping (which is the 5-1 4-2 and 3-3) on the come out roll, which pays 15-1 for the easy 6's and 30-1 for the hard 6. My question is if there our 6 points(4,5,6,8,9,10) that you can establish on the come out roll, within those 6 numbers what is the probability that the 6 can or will become the point? It seems that you will have a 1 in 6 chance that it will be a 6 but since each number has its own probability of coming out, what is the probability that the 6 will or can be the point?
Thanks for your input,
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 9th, 2011 at 8:13:41 AM permalink
There's a 5/36 chance of rolling a 6.

There's also 12/36 chance of rolling a non-point. (2. 3. 7. 11. 12)

Therefore, the odds of the point being 6 are 5/24.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
FleaStiff
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April 9th, 2011 at 9:45:14 AM permalink
>There's a 5/36 chance of rolling a 6.
>There's also 12/36 chance of rolling a non-point. (2. 3. 7. 11. 12)
>Therefore, the odds of the point being 6 are 5/24.
I don't follow your reasoning ... and therefore can't follow the math.

First of all, since this is a Hop Bet... its only that Come Out Roll that matters... and only Six or NotSix that matters. Although I guess if he has a PassLine bet then he also will have a slight consolation if he loses his HopBet by rolling a seven or eleven.

15 to 1 or 30 to 1 are great payouts but only if a six rolls. It will roll slightly less than 1/6th of the time.
Or did I miss something: does he re-bet his HopTheSix if it loses?
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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April 9th, 2011 at 10:06:21 AM permalink
Flea -

There were actually two questions, and I answered both at once.


There is a 5 in 36 chance of rolling a six. This is at ANY TIME, regardless of whether it's a come out or not, or if there is a hop bet on it or not.


The other question was whether a six would become the point.

There are 12 in 36 rolls that do not establish a point, and 24 that do.

Of those 24, 5 are a six, so the odds of the six becoming the point are 5 in 24.



This has NOTHING to do with how much money will be lost or won along the way.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
guido111
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April 9th, 2011 at 1:44:15 PM permalink
Quote: Whitec

I have an odds or probability question when it comes to the 6 on the come out roll. I play 6's hopping (which is the 5-1 4-2 and 3-3) on the come out roll, which pays 15-1 for the easy 6's and 30-1 for the hard 6


Since your math question was answered...
Do you always play the 6s hopping on a come out roll?

Since the 8 has the same probability of rolling as the 6, why not the 8 instead of the 6?

Why not both?
Whitec
Whitec
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April 11th, 2011 at 6:28:47 AM permalink
Ok heres the scoop , I play 6's(because I like the 6 not the 8 haha ,has nothing to do with the math ) hopping only on the come out roll, no matter whether I am playing the pass line or dont pass line(which rarely happens). I usually play C and E $1 each also on the come out roll. Thank you for the answer DJ (5/24). You would be suprised (or maybe not) how many times the 6 becomes the point since there are only 6 points u can establish. If the 6 does not become the point i will place bet the 6. I just like the 6. And for some reason my girl rolls alot of 6's when she throws, especially the hard 6. Thank you again for the answer.
Whitec
Whitec
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April 11th, 2011 at 6:42:07 AM permalink
Also I am going to try this next time I goto the Turning Stone in NY. On the come out roll I am going to play 6's hopping $1 each with a $5 passline and C & E (c=$2 & e=$1) and if another number comes up as the point I will place the 6 for $6. Then on the next come out roll I will play 6's hopping $2 each then $3 each then $5 each then $8 each and finally $12 each, only on the following consecutive come out rolls. Obviously I am hoping for the hard 6 on the come out roll but i will take the easy 6's any day. Hope I explained it so you can understand it. It wont take alot of money to at least try it, so good luck to me haha.
FleaStiff
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April 12th, 2011 at 8:34:54 AM permalink
Quote: Whitec

I play 6's hopping (which is the 5-1 4-2 and 3-3) on the come out roll, which pays 15-1 for the easy 6's and 30-1 for the hard 6.


Just two quick questions on this:

1) How do you do this hop bet? Do you just say 'six on the hop' ... and then get the indicated payout depending upon how it rolls? Or do you specifically have to utter the phrase "hard six" to be hopping it? In other words, is your "6's hopping" two separate bets to be called out separately or not? What would the upper limit be on such a hop bet at a ten dollar minimum to 5,000 maximum table?

2) Is there any difference at all between hopping a six on a Come Out roll and hopping a six on any other roll?
Whitec
Whitec
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April 12th, 2011 at 9:42:34 AM permalink
ok this is how I play it
on the come out roll this is what I call,, 6's hopping , which is 5-1 4-2 and 3-3 ,, $1 each ($3 total for all 3 bets)
I place $5 on the pass line and $2 on craps(C) and $1 on Yo eleven(e)
If I hit a easy 6,, 5-1 4-2,, I call out 16 and down which they take all the hopping bets down and pay me $16 ($15 for 15-1 for the easy 6's and $1 for my bet I won on)
If I hit a hard 6 3-3 i call out 31 and down which they take all the hopping bets down and pay me $31($30 for the 30-1 for the hard 6 and $1 for my bet I won on)
If a 7 comes up I win $5 which I put back up my hopping bets with the $5 I won plus $1 because it cost me $6 total(hopping bets and c&e bets).
If crap comes up I win $14 but lose my pass line and my hopping bets and the E(yo) bet. So I have them put back up my hopping bets which is $3 and back up on my E(yo) bet which is $1 so they actually pay me $10. which then I put back up my $5 on the pass line and "pocket" $5.
If a 11(yo) comes up I win $5 on my pass line and win $15 on the E(yo) hopping and they put me back up on the craps for $2 and back up on the 6's hopping bet for $3, so they actually only pay me $10(yo) and $5(pass line) which I "pocket".
So if they 6 comes up I play $6 on the 8.
and if any other number comes up I play $6 on the 6.
This is why i don't play 6's hopping after the come out roll, because in some way I already have it. Whether its the pass line if the 6 is the point or I place bet the 6 if its another point.
Here's the new part -------------
Then on following come outs I would play 6's hopping $2each then $3,$5,$8, and then finally $12. Which only playing the 6's hopping on the come out rolls is $93 invested. $3-$6-$9-$15-$24-$36= $93
And I play the rest of my bets accordingly to how the table is doing.
Also place betting the 6 would be $6 then $12 then $18 then $24 and so on...Each time winning on the 6 ,,I would bring the 6 back down to $6.. until I have won 2x's on it in a row then up a unit every other win.
Go it,, sounds confusing but if you play it enough its second nature and even the dealers know what I am playing and How I am playing it.And I hope I got all that straight,lol
7craps
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April 12th, 2011 at 3:28:35 PM permalink
You have asked more than a few quick questions.
Quote: FleaStiff

Just two quick questions on this:
1) How do you do this hop bet? Do you just say 'six on the hop' ... and then get the indicated payout depending upon how it rolls?


How do you "do" this hop bet?
A player should make a 3way hopping 6 bet by calling out the total amount of the bet, say $3 and the type of bet. Since you want all 3 ways a six can roll, the bet is called a "3 Way " 6. Hopping means for the next roll only.
An experienced Craps dealer will book the bet (by repeating your bet out loud) "$3, 3way 6 hopping" always stating the total amount, if equal bets, and the type of bet. You should listen to his call and watch the placement of the bet to make sure that is exactly what you want.
Quote: FleaStiff

Or do you specifically have to utter the phrase "hard six" to be hopping it? In other words, is your "6's hopping" two separate bets to be called out separately or not?

The more information you give the dealer about your bet, How much and what type or types, the faster he can book your bet accurately.
Quote: FleaStiff

What would the upper limit be on such a hop bet at a ten dollar minimum to 5,000 maximum table?


The min would be $1 at most tables.
The max can vary from house to house. A rule of thumb is you can only win 3 times the max table limit. So $5000 max table bet * 3 = $15,000. So you could bet $1000 on the 1-5 and the 2-4 (on a 15 to 1 payout) but only $500 on the 3-3 (hard 6 hopping) (on a 30 to 1 payout).
But remember, each casino can place different max bets on any individual bet.

Quote: FleaStiff

2) Is there any difference at all between hopping a six on a Come Out roll and hopping a six on any other roll?


No.
Remember there are 3 ways a 6 can roll. You can bet for 1, 2 or all 3.
winsome johnny (not Win some johnny)
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