Awful bad beet probability question

I was playing limit holdem tonight at a fund raiser, it was litterally the last hand of the night. Im sitting with pocket tens pre-flop. I raise the big blind...i get re-raised...he gets re-raised and its capped. Flop comes 10-3-3. I'm thinking im golden, i bet...re-raised...re-raised and I capped it. Turn comes Q, i bet. And again re-raised...re-raised and i cap it. River comes F'ING Q, I CHECK, then call(of course already knowing that the poker gods have already stuck their fist in a very uncomfotable area of my body) and I lose to a guy sitting with Q 3 off-suit. FML.

What was the probability of him catching those runner runner Qs, to beet me (while he was holding one of them, and it was a full table with only 3 of us in it after the flop)?

I feel like the odds of that happening are rediculous! But even if they arent, it was still and awful way to ruin my friday night. I think it was god saying "April fools! You thought you were gonna win, but your still just a tremenduos loser" :[

Less than one in 1-1000. He had 3 chances to hit a Q on the turn, and 2 on the river. It's not even a perfect two outer.

Also the Case 3 would also have hooched you. Course you had the redraw to the 10 in that case.

Now, it's still small, but you can take small comfort with getting the money in with the best of it.

Beet?
Oh well, if this is about some sort of Bad Beat, atleast you can take comfort that it appears to have been at some sort of charity event. So your opponent's reveling in his good fortune will be an advertisement for the charity.

Quote: thecesspit

Less than one in 1-1000. He had 3 chances to hit a Q on the turn, and 2 on the river. It's not even a perfect two outer.

Also the Case 3 would also have hooched you. Course you had the redraw to the 10 in that case.

Now, it's still small, but you can take small comfort with getting the money in with the best of it.

I admit to being mathematically challenged so if I am wrong PLEASE enlighten me. Knowing your two cards, your opponents
two cards, and the flop that leaves 45 cards 3 into 45 = 15 2 into 44= 22. 15 X 22 = 330 . Or had my 11th grade Catholic
education failed me again ??

The odds of getting the bad beat in the manner that you described were

3 / 45 * 2 /44 = 0.3% chance of happening.

The far more likely bad beat would have been the player spiking the 3, however.

1 - (44/45)*(43/44) = 4.4% chance of spiking the 3. You would have also had a small (~2%) chance if the guy hit the 3 on the turn of hitting your redraw to the ten

3 / 45 * 2 /44 = 0.3% chance of happening.
Scarecrow: I haven't got a brain... only straw. SIGH

Quote: buzzpaff

I admit to being mathematically challenged so if I am wrong PLEASE enlighten me. Knowing your two cards, your opponents
two cards, and the flop that leaves 45 cards 3 into 45 = 15 2 into 44= 22. 15 X 22 = 330 . Or had my 11th grade Catholic
education failed me again ??

Sorry, I should have written "more often than 1 in 1000".

The classic runner runner is 2 in 45, 1 in 44 = 1 in 990 shot. This is a greater chance than that (I rushed my answer and thought 1 chance 1000... nah, 1 in 500. 500 is less than 1000...).

The number of other players is immaterial (unless we want to start down the maybes and the whatsts of a player having exactly q-3 and the player have 10-10 and the flop hitting 10-3-3 yadda yadda, which isn't actually as interesting...)