Does The Japanese Situation Warrant The Hysteria We're Seeing?
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Coinciding with these events has been several days of stock market losses and finally, a positive day yesterday. Although I've always been in the market with my 401k for the very long term, although I've seen it soar almost unbelievably over time, and although there's been 6 month periods that I've never even bothered to look at it, the last couple years has caught my attention and has given me and a whole lot of others quite the ride. My opinion is that much of this is unwarranted.
Yesterday while we were watching Shepard Smith on FNC report from Japan, my wife said "those poor Japanese people just can't get a break right now" and I agreed. I then said if I were younger I'd have volunteered to go over and help them out the best I could, because IMHO the Japanese people are, overall, the nicest, most well-meaning & dignified people on the planet. They are resilient like no other in the face of disaster, they don't play the blame game or point fingers, and they don't whine and complain when things go wrong. They simply go about their business of recovery like worker ants. If help comes it comes; if it doesn't, it doesn't.
The next thing I said caught my wife by surprise. I said if I did go over, the first thing I'd do is find Shepard Smith and punch him out and off camera. Here we have a talking head who's never been shy about his quest for ratings, he's sensationalizing every little aspect of the Japanese sufferring, and you can almost FEEL him salivating for a nuclear meltdown or worse, that becomes the next terror over there just so he can continue to milk a story of tragedy dry. And have you seen him get all giddy as he reports how those iodine pills are vanishing off the shelves in California? As a result of this greedy media blitz mainly by the 24 hours cable news channels, stocks have tumbled far more than they should have. As investors figure this nonsense out, value will come back.
Quote: RobSingerThe next thing I said caught my wife by surprise. I said if I did go over, the first thing I'd do is find Shepard Smith and punch him out and off camera. Here we have a talking head who's never been shy about his quest for ratings, he's sensationalizing every little aspect of the Japanese sufferring, and you can almost FEEL him salivating for a nuclear meltdown or worse, that becomes the next terror over there just so he can continue to milk a story of tragedy dry. And have you seen him get all giddy as he reports how those iodine pills are vanishing off the shelves in California? As a result of this greedy media blitz mainly by the 24 hours cable news channels, stocks have tumbled far more than they should have. As investors figure this nonsense out, value will come back.
This is nothing new. Remember the run-up to the 2004 election and deaths in Iraq were just below 1,000? You could feel the media (and the dems for that matter) just waiting for the headline "1,000th death in Operation Iraqi Freedom" and they wanted it before the election. The thing with news is that most days there is not much exciting to report.
Quote: RobSingerIt's not often we see what Japan is now experiencing, which I equate to the perfect storm: disastrous earthquake + devastating tsunami + nuclear reactor panic.
classic Black Swan
Cable news channels of course eat this up. When an expert comes on and "downplays" the situation and says that the sky is not falling, they cut the expert off or go with another line of questioning or another "expert" to raise panic, and when they don't have an expert on, they talk amongst themselves to create panic. This is true of CNN, FoxNews, and CNBC. Their business is news. Their advertising revenue goes up when people watch. People don't watch uninteresting news stories... so they create panic.
Unfortunately, the quality of news is quite poor. CNN has relied on i-Reports, Twitters, and Facebook updates for its news when the core reporters are not on the ground... quite sad. The only bright star at CNN is Anderson Cooper. FoxNews is really a political channel with very few good reporters outside of the political spectrum (but excellent commentary, especially if you're conservative). The same is true with CNBC on the other side. That leaves the major networks, who cut back their news departments a long time ago.
Probably the best source for news on this disaster is the foreign media. NHK World of course would be the authority, but it relies heavily on the government. BBC is also an excellent source.
During Three Mile Island, one news editor chose reporters on the basis of whether they had seen the movie, China Syndrome, which had just been released a week or so earlier. One reporter sent to cover the story was there only because he had falsely claimed to have seen the movie. So much for informed reporters.
What information would I broadcase? I'd begin and end each news report and each solicitation for relief with "Remember Pearl Harbor". I'd be airing film footage of released POWs from WW2 Japanese camps and well as nuclear reactor footage.
I'd ask USA soldiers how they feel about being exposed to unknown but significant dangers on behalf of a foreign power.
Far more important is the fact that three of those reactors are probably damaged beyond repair now. That decreases the power available to the area, and how are they going to make up for it? Depending on how bad was the leak and damage, it may not even be possible to replace the reactors on site.
Quote: AZDuffmanYou could feel the media (and the dems for that matter) just waiting for the headline "1,000th death in Operation Iraqi Freedom"
The scary part is the country is full of twisted individuals who think like this. Talk about paranoia
Wow talk about a political rant on a thread that had nothing to do with it.
Quote: NareedWhat's interesting is that the least dangerous problem, the nuclear plant leak, is receiving the most coverage.
Far more important is the fact that three of those reactors are probably damaged beyond repair now. That decreases the power available to the area, and how are they going to make up for it? Depending on how bad was the leak and damage, it may not even be possible to replace the reactors on site.
I'd assess the worst situation as the problems with the stored spent rods, which some idiot designed standing buildings for. They should have been placed in a pool where water seeks its own level naturally above the rods. I'm unqualified to give my 2 cents, but I'm sorry, any moron should be able to see that is BAD DESIGN!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5sakN2hSVxA&feature=player_embedded
Nuclear Boy
Quote: odiousgambitI'd assess the worst situation as the problems with the stored spent rods, which some idiot designed standing buildings for. They should have been placed in a pool where water seeks its own level naturally above the rods. I'm unqualified to give my 2 cents, but I'm sorry, any moron should be able to see that is BAD DESIGN!
The rods need some distance from each other. That's easier if you stand them than if you lay them down, especially in a crowded country like Japan.
Quote: NareedWhat's interesting is that the least dangerous problem, the nuclear plant leak, is receiving the most coverage.
Far more important is the fact that three of those reactors are probably damaged beyond repair now. That decreases the power available to the area, and how are they going to make up for it? Depending on how bad was the leak and damage, it may not even be possible to replace the reactors on site.
The power deficit is just an economic problem. It maybe pretty bad, but it is not dangerous. Japan has always been importing power from Russia, and the latter is practically leaking it from its ears. The have already increased the amount of power they receive from Russia to cover the deficit, and can increase it more if needed. Sure, it will end up costing them dearly, but it is not dangerous as in threatening billions of people's lives and health, including the people who have not been born yet, and environmental damage, that will last for generations. Even if they end up not having enough power to resume their regular lifestyles, they could shut down some non-essential manufacturing, or implement a bad on power use during night hours, and just stick with candles. It would be uncomfortable, and expensive, but people would not die because of that.
The nuclear leak on the other hand has a potential of becoming a catastrophe on the world wide scales.
Quote:Until March 2011, the worst nuclear accident in the history of Japan took place at a uranium facility in Tokaimura on September 30, 1999. Three workers were attempting to mix nitric acid and uranium to form the fuel uranyl nitrate. However, the workers unknowingly used seven times the allowable limit of uranium, and the reactor couldn’t stop the solution from reaching critical mass.
The three technicians were exposed to massive gamma and neutron radiation poisoning, which killed two of them. More than 70 other workers received high doses of radiation as well. After an investigation, the International Atomic Energy Agency said that the accident had been caused by "human error and serious breaches of safety principles.
This is a slide show that starts here.
""First the flames went, then the flames reduced and the glow began to die down," he described, "I went up to check several times until I was satisfied that the fire was out. I did stand to one side, sort of hopefully," he went on to say, "but if you're staring straight at the core of a shut down reactor you're going to get quite a bit of radiation" - Tom Tuohy (via Wikipedia).
Tom died in 2008, mostly unknown for acting selflessly, and possibly averting a larger disaster.
Quote: thecesspitif you're staring straight at the core of a shut down reactor you're going to get quite a bit of radiation" - Tom Tuohy (via Wikipedia)
The actual distance is quite critical. Anybody see the movie Fat Man and Little Boy? That was an interesting true event, which actually occurred in 1946 and the movie had it occur during WWII. There was a need to proof the bomb core of an atom bomb for potency, this probably still is done. At that time a technician simply put other fissile material manually near the bomb core and took measurements on a guage. It was critical they do not actually touch, so, spoiler alert, guess what happens?
Anyway, for a brief moment everyone in the room was zapped, then everyone was told to freeze in place and mark with chalk where they were standing, the radiation of course losing strength in proportion to the distance, to the inverse of the radius squared. Those standing several feet away were deemed ok, but the technician doing the proofing died in agony some weeks later.
PS: in those days the proofing of the bomb core was called "tickling the dragon's tail"
Quote: odiousgambit
Anyway, for a brief moment everyone in the room was zapped, then everyone was told to freeze in place and mark with chalk where they were standing, the radiation of course losing strength in proportion to the distance, to the inverse of the radius squared. Those standing several feet away were deemed ok, but the technician doing the proofing died in agony some weeks later.
PS: in those days the proofing of the bomb core was called "tickling the dragon's tail"
Saw the scene, but not the background. But I thought he died later that day?
Quote: AZDuffmanSaw the scene, but not the background. But I thought he died later that day?
No, the movie may not have made that clear. In the true event, also not the same day. I forget how long they lingered.
Quote: RobSinger
The next thing I said caught my wife by surprise. I said if I did go over, the first thing I'd do is find Shepard Smith and punch him out and off camera. Here we have a talking head who's never been shy about his quest for ratings, he's sensationalizing every little aspect of the Japanese sufferring, and you can almost FEEL him salivating for a nuclear meltdown or worse, that becomes the next terror over there just so he can continue to milk a story of tragedy dry. And have you seen him get all giddy as he reports how those iodine pills are vanishing off the shelves in California? As a result of this greedy media blitz mainly by the 24 hours cable news channels, stocks have tumbled far more than they should have. As investors figure this nonsense out, value will come back.
Yes, I agree. The press is a fairly low form of pond scum.
On June 28, 1992, approximately 5,000 lb of stored explosives detonated at a Navy research facility where I worked in suburban Washington DC, shattering windows and rattling china in the nearby neighborhoods. Any large explosion will create a mushroom cloud as dirt is thrown into the air. However, mushroom clouds are always associated with nuclear bombs to your average citizen. Naturally the Washington Post took some expert testimony from one of the people who saw the cloud who reported seeing "nuclear particles" raining down during the explosion.
The situation was obviously incendiary, with an accident resulting in an explosion of that magnitude of conventional explosives, but the Post reporter deliberately raised it to a nuclear scare to get more attention for his article.
Quote: odiousgambitThe actual distance is quite critical. Anybody see the movie Fat Man and Little Boy? That was an interesting true event, which actually occurred in 1946 and the movie had it occur during WWII. There was a need to proof the bomb core of an atom bomb for potency, this probably still is done. At that time a technician simply put other fissile material manually near the bomb core and took measurements on a guage. It was critical they do not actually touch, so, spoiler alert, guess what happens?
Anyway, for a brief moment everyone in the room was zapped, then everyone was told to freeze in place and mark with chalk where they were standing, the radiation of course losing strength in proportion to the distance, to the inverse of the radius squared. Those standing several feet away were deemed ok, but the technician doing the proofing died in agony some weeks later.
PS: in those days the proofing of the bomb core was called "tickling the dragon's tail"
That's the "demon core". It killed another person a year earlier.
The various news networks are also relishing in reporting how dangerous our nuclear reactors are. They quickly point out that the plant located outside of NYC is the "most dangerous" in the US. They, for the most part, don't mention that this is because of the density of the population surrounding it, not some design fault. I deal with evaluating hazardous situations and this area, which we call the target zone, weighs very heavily on the final evaluation. The news is making it sound like something is inherently wrong with the reactor itself.
I am not saying this is not a very serious situation, it definitely is. But I believe the tremendous suffering of the Japanese people from the earthquake and tsunami is being ignored.
Quote: pacomartin
On June 28, 1992, approximately 5,000 lb of stored explosives detonated at a Navy research facility where I worked in suburban Washington DC, shattering windows and rattling china in the nearby neighborhoods. Any large explosion will create a mushroom cloud as dirt is thrown into the air. However, mushroom clouds are always associated with nuclear bombs to your average citizen. Naturally the Washington Post took some expert testimony from one of the people who saw the cloud who reported seeing "nuclear particles" raining down during the explosion.
Also helps if the explosion is a bit above ground-level, as nuclear bombs are made to do. Explosion creates a vacuum and that sucks dirt up into it. As it comes up it flattens out, thus the "mushroom cloud." I tried explaining this to a guy who worked for me in 2001 when we dropped some MOABs on Afghanistan.
