Powerball hits $1 Billion
As much of a brilliant marketing line that is, it also happens to be true.
Quote: DRichQuote: Ace2$6,800 insurance? The only way I can imagine that number is if you have a home in a disaster-prone area (like Florida) that costs several thousand to insure
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I thought he said that $6800 was all of his insurance (home, health, auto). my homeowners insurance alone is $8300 a year and that does not include flood insurance.
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I did. You and the others that read the post on this thread can absorb clear and precise postings. However, for some, admitting a simple mistake can be a traumatic event which might require retaliation. That is truly unfortunate.
tuttigym
Quote: MDawgYou can't win if you don't play.
As much of a brilliant marketing line that is, it also happens to be true.
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You can't lose if you don't play.
Quote: Mission146Every reason in the world for Powerball to rig that not to hit, but no possible way to prove (or even begin investigating) whether or not it was.
More money to be burnt Monday.
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I’ve read about security process, though they keep a few measures secret. Takes 3 people to access the room. If they don’t have another backup team unknown to these 3 I’d consider that less than ideal.
I’d want 4 layers of checking everything at a minimum.
Quote: Ace2That’s standard planning. When people forecast retirement with savings of $x and a withdrawal rate of x% (like 3 or 4%) they are counting on earning about that % in interestQuote: tuttigymQuote: Ace2Interest rates on savings have been essentially zero since 2009.Quote: tuttigym[
For me, that does not compute. If one has spent a lifetime working and investing and saving to end up with $3 mil "in the bank." that is NOT "earning ZERO." I am not sure where the 13 years enters the equation.
tuttigym
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$3 million “in the bank” times zero equals zero in earnings over that period
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So who does that anyway?
tuttigym
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If you withdraw 4% from an account that earns zero (or close to zero), your withdrawals decrease by 4% per year
Remember, the real interest rate on savings is “typically” around zero. Like you’re getting 5% which is 3.5% after taxes, minus 3.5% inflation. Part of what the Fed is doing now is bringing real interest rates up to zero. They’ve been negative for over a decade. In the last year, with higher inflation, they are very negative
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First, you did NOT answer: Who does that? Second, if you look around, the vast majority of working people do not save for retirement, nor would they have $3 mil in the bank. They live from paycheck to paycheck. Your "world view" needs to be revised to fit reality. Most seniors are finding their "retirement" years as -EV.
tuttigym
Said every addicted degenerate gambler.Quote: MDawgYou can't win if you don't play.
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Wizard, are you able to bring yourself to buy one ticket, knowing it’s a sucker bet with a “house edge” of 42.5% ? Or would that be sacrilegious?Quote: WizardWow! No winners. Jackpot currently at $1.9 billion.
Using my same formula, which I'll have to update after the jackpot hits, I project 2.4 winners the next drawing with a probability of at least one winner of 91%.
For the next drawing, I show a pre-tax ER of 80.1% and after paying 37% in taxes, 57.5%.
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Quote: WizardWow! No winners. Jackpot currently at $1.9 billion.
Using my same formula, which I'll have to update after the jackpot hits, I project 2.4 winners the next drawing with a probability of at least one winner of 91%.
For the next drawing, I show a pre-tax ER of 80.1% and after paying 37% in taxes, 57.5%.
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I just want to say the concept of expected return or EV breaks down for a large payout lottery because there is no long run and because of the concept of "economic utility."
According to your economic return calculation, the $1.9 B payout has an ER of 57.5%, whereas a $3.6 B payout would be slightly over 100%.
But here's how I look at it.
- you will almost certainly never win. When you don't win, not ever, it doesn't matter what the payout would have been.
- there is a very small probability you will win. And when you do win, it really doesn't matter whether the payout is $1.9 Billion or $3.6 Billion.. Because of the concept of economic utility. All of the improvement in your life comes from the first $1 Billion.
So, whether the payout is $3.6B or $1.9B, it doesn't really matter. For an individual there is no "expected return over millions of wagers." And the payout is so large that for an individual there is very little economic utility to a further increase in the payout.
Something’s wrong here. I’m fairly certain the ER never goes far above 60% no matter what the jackpot size isQuote: gordonm888[
According to your economic return calculation, the $1.9 B payout has an ER of 57.5%, whereas a $3.6 B payout would be slightly over 100%.
]
Quote: Ace2Wizard, are you able to bring yourself to buy one ticket, knowing it’s a sucker bet with a “house edge” of 42.5% ? Or would that be sacrilegious?Quote: WizardWow! No winners. Jackpot currently at $1.9 billion.
Using my same formula, which I'll have to update after the jackpot hits, I project 2.4 winners the next drawing with a probability of at least one winner of 91%.
For the next drawing, I show a pre-tax ER of 80.1% and after paying 37% in taxes, 57.5%.
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I believe in the past Wizard has said that Mrs. Wizard has forced him to participate.
Quote: Ace2Something’s wrong here. I’m fairly certain the ER never goes far above 60% no matter what the jackpot size isQuote: gordonm888[
According to your economic return calculation, the $1.9 B payout has an ER of 57.5%, whereas a $3.6 B payout would be slightly over 100%.
]
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It’s just a function of how many tickets are sold. I don’t know what the Wiz assumption is.
Quote: rxwineQuote: Mission146Every reason in the world for Powerball to rig that not to hit, but no possible way to prove (or even begin investigating) whether or not it was.
More money to be burnt Monday.
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I’ve read about security process, though they keep a few measures secret. Takes 3 people to access the room. If they don’t have another backup team unknown to these 3 I’d consider that less than ideal.
I’d want 4 layers of checking everything at a minimum.
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Timely discussion.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/03/28/powerball-lottery-behind-the-scenes-choosing-winner-sd-orig.cnn
Quote: unJonQuote: Ace2Something’s wrong here. I’m fairly certain the ER never goes far above 60% no matter what the jackpot size isQuote: gordonm888[
According to your economic return calculation, the $1.9 B payout has an ER of 57.5%, whereas a $3.6 B payout would be slightly over 100%.
]
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It’s just a function of how many tickets are sold. I don’t know what the Wiz assumption is.
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Yeah, I was simply trying to make a point that very rare events with very large payouts are not well represented by EV. Imagine that the current Powerball lottery were to keep going for many more weeks without a winner, and thus was at $3.6B - and then compare it to the current Powerball lottery.
Or imagine two lotteries where the chance of winning was 1000X less and the payouts were $1.9 Trillion and $3.8 Trillion and there is only one winner allowed. The point I am trying to make is that:
- if you never win (which is incredibly likely) then it doesn't matter how big the payout is
- if you are very lucky and you do actually win, it doesn't really matter to an individual bettor whether the payout is $1.9 trillion or $3.8 trillion. A $3.8 trillion payout is twice as big as a $1.9 trillion payout but for an individual winner it is not twice as valuable or twice as desirable. Economic utility of the payout becomes very non-linear.
Therefore, once the payout reaches astronomically large values for an extremely low probability event, the exact size of the payout doesn't matter very much, and the EV concept starts to break down.
Quote: Ace2Wizard, are you able to bring yourself to buy one ticket, knowing it’s a sucker bet with a “house edge” of 42.5% ? Or would that be sacrilegious?
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It would be sacrilegious. However, my wife has made me buy tickets sometimes when I'm out of state and she isn't. When I do, I find it very embarrassing and worry somebody will recognize me.
Quote: IndyJeffreyQuote: Mission146More money to be burnt Monday.
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I spent $4 for two tickets yesterday. I plan to do the same for Monday's drawing. With the understanding that I am essentially burning $4, I would say I will get >$4 worth of daydreaming value.
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Why would you buy a ticket without the powerball?
Quote: gamerfreakQuote: IndyJeffreyQuote: Mission146More money to be burnt Monday.
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I spent $4 for two tickets yesterday. I plan to do the same for Monday's drawing. With the understanding that I am essentially burning $4, I would say I will get >$4 worth of daydreaming value.
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Why would you buy a ticket without the powerball?
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How can you buy a ticket without the powerball? I thought the only options were the $2 ticket, and the $1.50 "jackpot or nothing" ticket. (Or is that only MegaMillions? The only Powerball website page that seems to be working at the moment is the one with Saturday's results.)
Quote: WizardQuote: Ace2Wizard, are you able to bring yourself to buy one ticket, knowing it’s a sucker bet with a “house edge” of 42.5% ? Or would that be sacrilegious?
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It would be sacrilegious. However, my wife has made me buy tickets sometimes when I'm out of state and she isn't. When I do, I find it very embarrassing and worry somebody will recognize me.
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I don't try to justify a lottery ticket as a good bet, but the way I see it, I'm paying $2 for the right to be a part of the conversation, or paying $2 for the daydream. I never buy until it gets over $500m, because that's when everyone starts buzzing about it.
Quote: ThatDonGuyQuote: gamerfreakQuote: IndyJeffreyQuote: Mission146More money to be burnt Monday.
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I spent $4 for two tickets yesterday. I plan to do the same for Monday's drawing. With the understanding that I am essentially burning $4, I would say I will get >$4 worth of daydreaming value.
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Why would you buy a ticket without the powerball?
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How can you buy a ticket without the powerball? I thought the only options were the $2 ticket, and the $1.50 "jackpot or nothing" ticket. (Or is that only MegaMillions? The only Powerball website page that seems to be working at the moment is the one with Saturday's results.)
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5 numbers with $1m jackpot is $2
Powerball is +$1
Power Play is +$1 or maybe $0.50
Quote: gamerfreak
5 numbers with $1m jackpot is $2
Powerball is +$1
Power Play is +$1 or maybe $0.50
This is very wrong. All tickets have 5 numbers and a PB number for a $2 wager. The "Power Play" option multiplies your winnings, not make you eligible for the jackpot.
Quote: rsactuaryQuote: gamerfreak
5 numbers with $1m jackpot is $2
Powerball is +$1
Power Play is +$1 or maybe $0.50
This is very wrong. All tickets have 5 numbers and a PB number for a $2 wager. The "Power Play" option multiplies your winnings, not make you eligible for the jackpot.
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I think you can still buy a jackpot only ticket for $1.50. If I was smart I would save the $0.50 because I don't even look at my tickets unless they announced someone in my city won the jackpot.
Quote: DRichQuote: rsactuaryQuote: gamerfreak
5 numbers with $1m jackpot is $2
Powerball is +$1
Power Play is +$1 or maybe $0.50
This is very wrong. All tickets have 5 numbers and a PB number for a $2 wager. The "Power Play" option multiplies your winnings, not make you eligible for the jackpot.
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I think you can still buy a jackpot only ticket for $1.50. If I was smart I would save the $0.50 because I don't even look at my tickets unless they announced someone in my city won the jackpot.
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Frugality, who knew?
tuttigym
This is one thing we disagree on. IMO absolute numbers can be small enough that percentages are irrelevant. Even if it were a 90% edge, that’s still only $1.80 of edgeQuote: WizardQuote: Ace2Wizard, are you able to bring yourself to buy one ticket, knowing it’s a sucker bet with a “house edge” of 42.5% ? Or would that be sacrilegious?
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It would be sacrilegious. However, my wife has made me buy tickets sometimes when I'm out of state and she isn't. When I do, I find it very embarrassing and worry somebody will recognize me.
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I have bought one Powerball ticket maybe three times in my life. Zero guilt or embarrassment. $6 total
Since the store that sells a winning ticket often gets a payout for their part, I could view it as a tip.
Quote: WizardWow! No winners. Jackpot currently at $1.9 billion.
Using my same formula, which I'll have to update after the jackpot hits, I project 2.4 winners the next drawing with a probability of at least one winner of 91%.
For the next drawing, I show a pre-tax ER of 80.1% and after paying 37% in taxes, 57.5%.
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Your last "math" calculation showed an 80% chance of a winner+. What makes this calculation, i.e., 91%, viable? More players, more tickets, or some kind of inevitability? It seems to me that with a 91% chance of "winning," you might want to take a flier and throw caution to the winds and jump in the pool. Just sayin'.
p.s. I know you did NOT say there was a 91% chance of actually winning.
tuttigym
Quote: Ace2This is one thing we disagree on. IMO absolute numbers can be small enough that percentages are irrelevant. Even if it were a 90% edge, that’s still only $1.80 of edgeQuote: WizardQuote: Ace2Wizard, are you able to bring yourself to buy one ticket, knowing it’s a sucker bet with a “house edge” of 42.5% ? Or would that be sacrilegious?
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It would be sacrilegious. However, my wife has made me buy tickets sometimes when I'm out of state and she isn't. When I do, I find it very embarrassing and worry somebody will recognize me.
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I have bought one Powerball ticket maybe three times in my life. Zero guilt or embarrassment. $6 total
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Let's see. According to you a 292+ million to one gamble or play only has a "house edge" of 42.5%, and you have played "only three" times? Sounds to me like there is a disproportionate amount of risk aversion. Can you show the math? Better yet, forget that last request. It is not really important.
tuttigym
Quote: DRichQuote: rsactuaryQuote: gamerfreak
5 numbers with $1m jackpot is $2
Powerball is +$1
Power Play is +$1 or maybe $0.50
This is very wrong. All tickets have 5 numbers and a PB number for a $2 wager. The "Power Play" option multiplies your winnings, not make you eligible for the jackpot.
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I think you can still buy a jackpot only ticket for $1.50. If I was smart I would save the $0.50 because I don't even look at my tickets unless they announced someone in my city won the jackpot.
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Right, but it still has a powerball number as part of the ticket. OP suggested a ticket was purchased with just the group of 5 numbers, and not the powerball.
Every time someone posts the simple calculation of the edge of a craps bet you dismiss it as “just math”. You always put the word “math” in quotes as if it’s a bunch of voodoo hocus-pocusQuote: tuttigym
Your last "math" calculation showed an 80% chance of a winner+. What makes this calculation, i.e., 91%, viable? ]
The calculation of the probability of zero Powerball winners, though not complex, is much more advanced than the edge of craps bets. But it is still just “math” which you always dismiss as “just theory” and “only verifiable by billions of simulations”
You’re already doubting the Wizard’s “math” by the implications included in your question. So why even waste your time ?
Quote: rsactuaryQuote: DRichQuote: rsactuaryQuote: gamerfreak
5 numbers with $1m jackpot is $2
Powerball is +$1
Power Play is +$1 or maybe $0.50
This is very wrong. All tickets have 5 numbers and a PB number for a $2 wager. The "Power Play" option multiplies your winnings, not make you eligible for the jackpot.
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I think you can still buy a jackpot only ticket for $1.50. If I was smart I would save the $0.50 because I don't even look at my tickets unless they announced someone in my city won the jackpot.
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Right, but it still has a powerball number as part of the ticket. OP suggested a ticket was purchased with just the group of 5 numbers, and not the Powerball.
I read it as he bought a different game, not Powerball.
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Quote: rsactuaryQuote: gamerfreak
5 numbers with $1m jackpot is $2
Powerball is +$1
Power Play is +$1 or maybe $0.50
This is very wrong. All tickets have 5 numbers and a PB number for a $2 wager. The "Power Play" option multiplies your winnings, not make you eligible for the jackpot.
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Yea you’re right I was confused. I rarely play. The two additional bets are power play and double play.
Quote: Ace2Every time someone posts the simple calculation of the edge of a craps bet you dismiss it as “just math”. You always put the word “math” in quotes as if it’s a bunch of voodoo hocus-pocusQuote: tuttigym
Your last "math" calculation showed an 80% chance of a winner+. What makes this calculation, i.e., 91%, viable? ]
If the "calculation" is so simple, then perform the "math" at the tables. It is your "voodoo."
Quote: Ace2The calculation of the probability of zero Powerball winners, though not complex, is much more advanced than the edge of craps bets. But it is still just “math” which you always dismiss as “just theory” and “only verifiable by billions of simulations”
It is you and others who rely on "billions of simulations" which you have previously acknowledged as impossible to perform.
Quote: Ace2You’re already doubting the Wizard’s “math” by the implications included in your question. So why even waste your time ?
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Because he is the Wizard and should be able to somehow break down the "calculations" for non-geniuses like me.
tuttigym
Quote: tuttigymQuote: WizardWow! No winners. Jackpot currently at $1.9 billion.
Using my same formula, which I'll have to update after the jackpot hits, I project 2.4 winners the next drawing with a probability of at least one winner of 91%.
For the next drawing, I show a pre-tax ER of 80.1% and after paying 37% in taxes, 57.5%.
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Your last "math" calculation showed an 80% chance of a winner+. What makes this calculation, i.e., 91%, viable? More players, more tickets, or some kind of inevitability? It seems to me that with a 91% chance of "winning," you might want to take a flier and throw caution to the winds and jump in the pool. Just sayin'.
p.s. I know you did NOT say there was a 91% chance of actually winning.
tuttigym
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This might be the toughest question I've ever asked of you, so get ready:
Is 100%:
A. Greater than
B. Less than
C. Equal to
80%?
Just because the ESTIMATED 20% (not to hit) came in doesn't mean the new estimate of 91% to hit is wrong because 80% is not 100%, but you knew that, didn't you?
Actually, maybe you didn't realize that. Looking back on a few of your posts, it leads me to conclude that I shouldn't assume.
I suppose Wizard could explain the methodology and it would be interesting to most of us, though I suspect that your posts following that would lead everyone to believe that he wasted his fingertips on you--as your posts have led so many of us to believe in your time here.
Quote: rsactuary
Timely discussion.
https://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2019/03/28/powerball-lottery-behind-the-scenes-choosing-winner-sd-orig.cnn
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(Quote clipped-removal of superfluous quotes)
Thank you for posting that, but it looks like a 1:20 propaganda piece to me.
For example, on 6/1/2019 the jackpot was at $345 million and the number of tickets sold were 27.8 million.
By comparison, on 10/5/22 the jackpot was at $353 million and the number of tickets sold were 13.0 million.
This table shows the recent jackpot sales and my estimates, which I admit are way too high. I'll redo my demand equations after the jackpot hits.
All figures are in millions.
| Date | Jackpot (mil) | Ticket Sales (actual) | Ticket Sales (estimated) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/22 (S) | 1600 | 279.27 | 617.48 |
| 11/02/22 (W) | 1200 | 183.09 | 472.12 |
| 10/31/22 (M) | 1000 | 131.66 | 379.99 |
| 10/29/22 (S) | 825 | 98.54 | 282.78 |
| 10/26/22 (W) | 700 | 55.69 | 199.76 |
| 10/24/22 (M) | 625 | 33.39 | 142.50 |
| 10/22/22 (S) | 580 | 35.23 | 104.74 |
| 10/19/22 (W) | 508 | 23.02 | 75.00 |
| 10/17/22 (M) | 480 | 15.23 | 66.18 |
| 10/15/22 (S) | 454 | 24.91 | 58.92 |
| 10/12/22 (W) | 420 | 16.34 | 50.61 |
| 10/10/22 (M) | 401 | 11.79 | 46.49 |
| 10/08/22 (S) | 378 | 19.12 | 41.95 |
| 10/05/22 (W) | 353 | 12.97 | 37.52 |
Also, the Monday draws are fairly new and it wouldn't surprise me if sales for Monday draws are lower than the other nights, all else being equal.
Quote: rsactuaryI believe it's because you should base ticket sales off of the cash value option, not the annuitized value option. The rise in interest rates is causing a distortion.
Also, the Monday draws are fairly new and it wouldn't surprise me if sales for Monday draws are lower than the other nights, all else being equal.
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I doubt the cash value has any impact but didn't the Powerball go from two drawings a week to three drawings per week? That may be the difference.
Quote: DRichQuote: rsactuaryI believe it's because you should base ticket sales off of the cash value option, not the annuitized value option. The rise in interest rates is causing a distortion.
Also, the Monday draws are fairly new and it wouldn't surprise me if sales for Monday draws are lower than the other nights, all else being equal.
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I doubt the cash value has any impact but didn't the Powerball go from two drawings a week to three drawings per week? That may be the difference.
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If I buy tickets, the decision is based on the cash value option, not the annuitized value. I realize others don't even comprehend the difference, but a sample of n=1 suggests there might other people out there that think like me.
Quote: DRichQuote: rsactuaryI believe it's because you should base ticket sales off of the cash value option, not the annuitized value option. The rise in interest rates is causing a distortion.
Also, the Monday draws are fairly new and it wouldn't surprise me if sales for Monday draws are lower than the other nights, all else being equal.
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I doubt the cash value has any impact but didn't the Powerball go from two drawings a week to three drawings per week? That may be the difference.
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That's definitely some of it, but there are a wide variety of factors.
One major contributor is the simple fact that, according to my most recent comprehensive lottery report:
https://wizardofodds.com/online_gambling/articles/the-lottery-still-sucks/
Drawing Ticket sales are either down or are not increasing as rapidly as Instant Ticket sales in the vast majority of states. Where drawing ticket sales are down (FY21 compared to FY19) most of the decline comes from a drop-off in sales of national games such as Powerball and Mega Millions.
Naturally, there's a huge correlation also between sales and the jackpot hitting record, or close to, record numbers. The Powerball jackpot did not come anywhere close to doing that in FY21, so I would expect to see stronger revenues for Powerball this year.
Of course, another contributing factor to the decline in sales is the fact that the Powerball reduced the starting jackpot amount from 40M to 20M, which I knew would seriously tick even some of the most vociferous lottery players off...and those are the ones who buy every week and begin contributing to seeding the larger jackpots to begin with...but, of course, nobody believed me.
Another factor contributing to early slow jackpot growth is the fact that Powerball no longer would have an automatic 10M increase to the top jackpot in the event nobody hits it in the earlier drawings. Three drawings a week is a more recent change than these other changes and was not implemented until August 23, 2021.
I also theorize that many lottery players have certain, "Trigger points," to playing, which is top jackpot is x, or more than x, therefore, they play. I should imagine that 50M might be a trigger for some, but anything that slows down the jackpot causes trigger points to take longer to hit in real time.
With that, back in 2019, if you had a starting point of 40M for the jackpot, then it was automatically going to be no less than 60M if the first two drawings failed to produce a winning top prize. You can go back to September of 2020 and see that it took four no winner drawings, at one point, just to go from 20M to 43M. In fact, when the 43M drawing did not produce a winner, the following jackpot was only 52M, so still failed to increase by the 10M that used to be automatic from a starting base jackpot that was higher to begin with.
Anyway, it's a serious shame that the jackpot has managed to be missed for so long because Powerball deserves for their revenues to go down the toilet. You already had them screwing their players for nearly three decades and then they made it even worse.
Quote: rsactuaryI believe it's because you should base ticket sales off of the cash value option, not the annuitized value option. The rise in interest rates is causing a distortion.
I respectfully disagree. I think the type of people to consider that, don't play in the first place.
Quote:Also, the Monday draws are fairly new and it wouldn't surprise me if sales for Monday draws are lower than the other nights, all else being equal.
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I do think that when they went to three drawing a week, it probably depressed demand per drawing. I might look into correlation by day of the week after the jackpot hits.
Source: https://lottoreport.com/powerballsales5.htm
Well... you don't need to spend anything to dream.
This past week or so I've been doing a lot of dreaming about what I would do if I bought a ticket and won the jackpot. I dream of walking across the street ten minutes before the drawing deadline, purchasing a ticket, and later finding out that I have the winning numbers.
I dream of what I'd do with the money, how much I've give my friends and family, how much I could spend each day, etc., etc., etc.
I do all of this each time the jackpot gets as large as it is.
It's very easy to dream.
And then, I stop dreaming ten minutes before the deadline to purchase a ticket. I stop dreaming because at this point because I chose NOT to walk across the street to purchase that ticket.
Is my dream any less vivid than someone who actually does buy a ticket?
I argue it is not.
Part of my dream is actually, for the first time, walking across my street and purchasing that ticket. And that part of the dream is very easy and believable. It only would take a few minutes. And yet, I never have. I've never purchased a Powerball ticket in my life.
It's very easy to dream.
In effect, the dream of someone who actually does purchase a ticket simply lasts for sixty minutes longer than my dream. That's it. My dream ends one hour before the actual drawing. A ticket purchaser's dream ends as soon as the numbers are drawn.
You can dream. You don't need to spend $2 to dream.
They say the odds of you getting struck by lightning are better than winning Powerball. I think that's a bad analogy. A person who works outdoors in Seattle has a better chance of being struck by lightning than someone working indoors in San Diego, so this analogy isn't the same for everyone.
Here's my favorite analogy of how hard it is to win, that most everyone should be able to relate to.
Imagine driving from San Diego, California north to Seattle, Washington. Once you've reached Seattle, now imagine driving all the way across the country to New York City. Once in New York City, imagine driving south down the coast for another seven hours to Raleigh, North Carolina.
If you've ever driving across the country before, you know first hand how long of a drive this would be. In all, you've now driven approximately 4,573 miles and it probably took you about seven days to do so, assuming you drove 600 miles each day.
San Diego to Seattle = approximately 1,255 miles
Seattle to NYC = approximately 2,831 miles
NYC to Raleigh = approximately 487 miles
There are 5,280 feet in each mile, so this is approximately 24,145,440 feet.
There are twelve inches in each foot, so this is approximately 289,745,280 inches.
Now, imagine that somewhere along this entire 4,573 mile route, an INCH on the ground has been designated as the "winning inch." At any point during your trip, you can stop your vehicle, get out, look down, point to the ground and select any "inch" you want. If you select the winning inch, you win!
You have a better chance of doing this than winning the Powerball lottery.
You most likely wouldn't win PowerBall if that "winning inch" was limited to the street you live on!
Quote:tBut lottery winnings expert Victor Matheson - an economics and accounting professor at College of the Holy Cross - begs to differ.
By going for yearly payouts, the lottery will take the bulk of the money you just won and invest it in a very conservative annuity, which will earn about 4.5%.
That’s a higher rate than you’d get yourself, and your payments will come from that fund.
“So by taking the annuity, it is basically like having the lottery put your money into a high-yield savings account in the first place,” he told the site.
Another key reason to go for the annual payments is to avoid paying the 37% federal tax bill on the full lump sum.
He said: “You get to defer your taxes with the annuity in a way, because you don’t have to pay all of the taxes up front like you do if you take a lump sum and go put it in a high-yield savings account yourself. If you take the money now in a lump sum, you get the tax hit up front.
“From a purely financial standpoint, the advantage of taking the annuity is you don’t have to pay taxes on winnings until you actually receive the money. You’re getting a bunch of money that’s earning money for you and the taxes are deferred. It’s not like it’s tax-free, but you don’t have to pay taxes on that final annuity payment for 30 years.”
Suggesting you can't do better than 4.5% annually on a couple of hundred million seems off.
I don't dream about winning the lottery, but I do wonder about the responsibilities and obligations that go with it.
How much would I share with family and friends? Winning a million or two is one thing, but winning 1.9 billion? You could hand out $100 bills to everyone you meet, live off the interest, and never touch the principal.
I think I'd rather win $5 million than $1.9 billion. I don't need or want that kind of power.
Quote: EdCollins
Now, imagine that somewhere along this entire 4,573 mile route, an INCH on the ground has been designated as the "winning inch." At any point during your trip, you can stop your vehicle, get out, look down, point to the ground and select any "inch" you want. If you select the winning inch, you win!
You have a better chance of doing this than winning the Powerball lottery.
You most likely wouldn't win PowerBall if that "winning inch" was limited to the street you live on!
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I mean, if that whole trip only cost me $2 in opportunity cost, I'd totally do it.
Quote: EdCollinsWE all know the odds of winning the Powerball are 1 in 292,201,338.
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Yeah, but that's the jackpot. The odds of winning ANYTHING in Powerball and coming out ahead of the $2 you spent on the ticket are about 1 in 25.
Using your inches analogy, it's like saying, "Pick an inch out of the next two feet and you could win between $4 and $2 billion."
For me there would be no difference between 50 million and a billion dollars. It’s more money than I could ever spend and I’d end up gifting/donating most of it
Quote: billryanThe problem with that is 1) the dollars you get in thirty years will be worth much less, and 2) who knows what the tax rate will be in 30 years.
Suggesting you can't do better than 4.5% annually on a couple of hundred million seems off.
I don't dream about winning the lottery, but I do wonder about the responsibilities and obligations that go with it.
How much would I share with family and friends? Winning a million or two is one thing, but winning 1.9 billion? You could hand out $100 bills to everyone you meet, live off the interest, and never touch the principal.
I think I'd rather win $5 million than $1.9 billion. I don't need or want that kind of power.
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I wouldn't tell anyone if I didn't have to including family. I can still buy nice things for them. Even send anonymous vacation gifts. They don't have to know they are from me.
If I need 50-million-dollar residence, (which I seriously doubt I would ever want anyway) it will be a second home only I know I own. If I ever need to impress anyone for some ego-boosting reason they still don't need to know who I really am. Blindfold them and take them in the bat cave entrance.
The big reveal will come at the reading of the will.
Quote: Ace2I’m always surprised how much ticket sales increase in times like these. It’s like a 50 million dollar jackpot isn’t worth the time for many people but a billion dollar jackpot is.
For me there would be no difference between 50 million and a billion dollars. It’s more money than I could ever spend and I’d end up gifting/donating most of it
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I couldn't even buy the one jet I want for $50 million.
