ChumpChange
ChumpChange
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Joined: Jun 15, 2018
July 4th, 2026 at 10:48:10 PM permalink
4 years later, I've posted more than Alan did.

As for eeking out a 1% player advantage, that usually comes from luck and progressions. I keep getting told progressions don't work. They can make a winning session, and enough winning sessions could spell profit.

For winning on Video Poker, I've given up on that in 2025. I'm too many Royals behind after too many thousands of hands on the home game. Before, I would play it because it was the only jackpot I could get for under $1.2K. Since the threshold has been raised to $2K, I can try other games like Dragon Link where Bonus Rounds that pay up to 300X bets of $5/spin only pays up to $1.5K. I'd hate to have to figure out 90% of my losses in this day and age with hand pays involved.
Last edited by: ChumpChange on Jul 4, 2026
AutomaticMonkey
AutomaticMonkey
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July 5th, 2026 at 12:14:13 AM permalink
Quote: Bowler377

There are numerous reasons for this. In Ben Affleck's case, he was a big time celebrity worth millions bringing a lot of good publicity to the casino, so the casino tolerated Ben Affleck a lot longer than they would your typical advantage player, despite the fact that Ben was using a minimum to max bet spread and wonging into hot shoes for $20k bets.

If you are a low stakes card counter in some casinos wagering less than green chips, a card counter's win is not likely to shift the table games hold percentage in a way that has upper management breathing down the floorpersons' neck, plus it requires burdensome paperwork, taking time away from other duties to stare down a game or discuss possible pros with casino personnel, and an uncomfortable confrontation to restrict the play of an advantage player. Also "A loser will tell 2 people. A winner will tell 200 people" - Anthony Curtis Travel Channel Sucker Bets

There is usually a dollar threshold a tables game player has to cross before casino policy forces them to take action. For some it could be $1,000. For others it could be higher than that. You could also get scrutinized right from the beginning if the casino is a sweat joint, you're betting big enough, or if the casino policy is to check their databases right away, or if they got a BOLO report of a currently active advantage player, or anytime the casino sees something strange like splitting 10's, not tipping, no side betting, intense focus, bet spreads or aggressive wonging, inappropriate behavior that wouldn't be tolerated from suckers, or a consistent winning pattern (are they cheaters, advantage players, or ploppies getting super lucky who will lose eventually).

It is also generally understood by more intelligent casino people that even the best card counters will get beat 45% of the time, so the losing advantage player losing might be too entertaining to deal with right away.

Last but not least, there are a lot of ignorant ploppies who have deluded themselves into thinking they have a winning strategy. For every one pro with a 1% advantage, there are hundreds if not thousands of ploppies with a 1% to 5% disadvantage. Casinos can keep the suckers around and tell the pros to go play something else or leave.

Concerning video poker advantage players, they operate in the shadows and are not required to interact with anyone except the person checking their ID, paying out jackpots, or the Players Club, thus reducing the level of accountability for casino personnel to do something about a possible pro, until an abnormality in the numbers alerts them to trouble, or some software designed to find such players gives an alert. Not all casinos invest in more software to take down pros because the juice might not necessarily be worth the squeeze for casinos, which is part of the reason why American casinos haven't gone 100% CSM yet to shut down card counters. Much of what was said earlier applies here.
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That's a good analysis of it. I've found a lot of casino employees have misconceptions about what APs are and are not capable of. The intense focus you mention is one of them. Also not tipping, not drinking, not talking and socializing. They also seem to think I'm a living computer, who can calculate every move of the game and empty a try any time I want to. While in reality I may be a computer, but I have to be one to get a lower advantage than any carnival game or slot they have in the house, and if I had a literal computer with me I couldn't do much better.

Curious though, you mention "inappropriate behavior" and is that really a stereotype of a blackjack AP? Good God, what kind of inappropriate behavior? I've seen counters chimp out over a dealer who is an unmitigated screwup, and I've been guilty of that myself a couple of times, but that doesn't really stand out because all kinds of players do that sometimes.
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