Blackjack variance

Quote: jjjoooggg

We both have that software. I didn’t get around to using it

It's like my blackjack bible. I've been accused of having an affair. Nobody studies blackjack that much. 😄

Quote: moses

Try this KJ little bro. Drop the 2. add a point to the 5. A very simple Level 2 count. Run your sim comparisons with CV Data as it is closer to your style of short session play. You can also determine the Advantage point to bet two hands instrad of one.

Moses, did you forget, I am a proponet of hi-lo and simplicity in general. I think I have done pretty well with that philosophy over the years. That is the KJ way and that is what I taught my brother and he has done pretty well in his 4 or 5 years. So no offense, but I am not looking for "a very simple level 2 count".

Now, are you aware that a level 2 count and a level 1 count identify the same true count something like 96% of the time in a shoe game, which is what we mostly play. And the times they don't match up it is one identifying a TC of +3, while the other is TC+4. It is pretty minor. You never have a situation where a level 2 count would identify some advantageous situation, while hi-lo or a level 1 identifies a nuetral situation. There just is never THAT kind of discrepency. Double deck game and the single deck games you play, yeah it makes more of a difference.

So if a player is running say 20k behind expectation for a period of time, say a number of months or even a year, a level 2 count would have made virtually no difference. A player running significantly under expectation, his count has identified virtually the same max bet situations as another count would have, but he is in a period that he just is not winning his fair share of max bets over that period of time. It happens all the time. A level 2 count player would have identified almost all the same counts and still be under performing almost identically.

In addition, there is another reason, I am a level 1 count proponet. There are thing a player can do with a level one count that he can NOT do with a level 2. It has to do with getting only a glance at the cards on the table, for a fraction, and I mean FRACTION of a second. I will give you this hint: Pips and paint.

I wasnt the one complaining about variance.

Quote: moses

I wasnt the one complaining about variance.

No one was "complaining" about variance. I was explaining it.

My brother has finished above expection each of his 4 years so far. That is POSITIVE variance. This year negative variance so far.

Last year, I was 60 some k, below expectaion. That was very bad negative variance. This year I am running about 12k above at the moment. That is positive variance.

Variance is a part of blackjack card counting and especially with shoe games. There is no way to tamp it down. If a player uses a big bet spread, he is likely to experience variance one way or the other, depending on if he is hitting his fair share or not of the biggest bets. It is that simple.

So I said there is no way to tamp it down. But there is. My first couple years of playing atlantic city, I didn't experience that much variance. I was playing a very small spread. A small spread will smooth out variance some, but at the cots of win rate. You will win less, but it will be a smoother ride.

So players that don't really have the bankroll necessary, will play a smaller spread and experience less variance. (also smaller win rate). Once a player acquires the bankroll necessary, he becomes more interested in win rate, and plays a higher spread, and along with that comes increased variance.

Variance is simply something a successful card counter must learn to deal with. My brother has never really dealt with negative variance only positive, so I was sharing him experiencing a bit of negative variance for the first time.

What was the point of your thread again,? It sucks to lose money. Deal with it.

Quote: kewlj

So I said there is no way to tamp it down. But there is. My first couple years of playing atlantic city, I didn't experience that much variance. I was playing a very small spread. A small spread will smooth out variance some, but at the cots of win rate. You will win less, but it will be a smoother ride.

So players that don't really have the bankroll necessary, will play a smaller spread and experience less variance. (also smaller win rate). Once a player acquires the bankroll necessary, he becomes more interested in win rate, and plays a higher spread, and along with that comes increased variance.

KJ, this is a good time to perfectly tie in some subject matter that you recently spoke about. I am not sure which site this occurred at. That subject had to do with how to achieve longevity. Where you stated that the only way to achieve this is by playing very short sessions. Knowing that line was rather limited where I felt it needed further clarification, but dismissed the thought thinking that you were only referring to full-time play as from your perspective. We already know that certain areas of the country are not conducive for only playing short sessions and I can assure you that one can obtain some longevity outside of Las Vegas while also being successful and welcomed back while playing part-time while also not being limited to only playing short sessions. That is not easy to accomplish and back offs will and still do take place. Now I am not about to discuss my business but I will say it has plenty to do with what Moses firmly believes in and that is learning what is accepted and not overstepping your bounds.

When I play blackjack my spread is all the way to table max and I win most of the big bets because I am doing much more than just counting. There might be less opportunities these days but they are still available.

Then again, I just do a session, win and leave.

There are times it doesn't work out but these are far outweighed by the times it does.

Quote: MDawg

When I play blackjack my spread is all the way to table max and I win most of the big bets

There are times it doesn't work out but these are far outweighed by the times it does.

this all goes without saying
everybody here already knew that if you played blackjack that you would win the vast majority of your big bets
just as you do in bacc
and everybody already knew you would go to table max every time

but it's real enjoyable for me and I would guess everybody here to hear it again
personally, I've never before heard of another gambler who had such fantastical success as you have

it really is quite amazing


.

Quote: lilredrooster

this all goes without saying

But he never can resist.

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But it's real enjoyable for me and I would guess everybody here to hear it again

New members, visitors and passers by might even believe it all, join the fan club and try to emulate the great one.

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personally, I've never before heard of another gambler who had such fantastical success as you have

There was the fictional character, James Bond, and Lou Costello, who did pretty good at roulette
https://youtu.be/rN-oOeUKcO4

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it really is quite amazing

Other adjectives are available.