ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
  • Threads: 95
  • Posts: 4468
January 11th, 2021 at 6:44:13 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

BetFair is taking action on Trump to leave before the end of his term. The betting odds suggest a 9.8% chance.


I checked out the site, and it doesn't specify the parameters of the bet - i.e. how is "leave" defined. Does somebody invoking the 25th Amendment count? What if he attempts to return, as is allowed under the amendment?

Quote: SOOPOO

Is it legal for US citizens to make these bets? I do like your analysis on the EV available.


I think the law is, you can make bets, but you can't use a credit card. I am under the impression that some companies use some shell company name for the charges so that the credit card companies (and, more importantly, the government) don't notice.

If you are referring to betting specifically on "political" events like this, then these are as legal as betting on "how long will the national anthem at the next Super Bowl last." States that allow sports betting don't allow bets like this, except technically Nevada can authorize it as it's not "betting on an election," but there are no such restrictions on foreign sites.
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 109
January 11th, 2021 at 7:52:31 AM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO



Is it legal for US citizens to make these bets? I do like your analysis on the EV available.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PredictIt
Quote:

Victoria University of Wellington secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, eliminating the risk of prosecution for illegal online gambling. In order to secure the no-action letter, each question is limited to 5,000 traders, and there is an $850 cap on individual investments per question. These restrictions are modeled after the Iowa Electronic Markets, which previously secured a no-action letter from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. However, there are differences in the restrictions between the two markets.



Whatever you do, always read the full rules for every question before you wager. Also, be aware you are trading against bots. Stick with the low-risk stuff.
Mental
Mental
Joined: Dec 10, 2018
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 109
January 11th, 2021 at 8:26:46 AM permalink
Quote: ThatDonGuy

I think the law is, you can make bets, but you can't use a credit card.


I used a credit card for $11K of deposits on PredictIt from the US.

https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/5158/Will-Donald-Trump-complete-his-first-term
The Rules
Donald Trump shall be president of the United States until conclusion of the four-year term to which he was elected in 2016. Temporary incapacity resulting in the temporary transfer of authority to an acting president shall have no bearing on the outcome of this market.

PredictIt’s decisions and determinations under this rule shall be at PredictIt’s sole discretion and shall be final.

End Date: 01/20/2021 12:00 PM (ET)
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
  • Threads: 22
  • Posts: 5413
January 11th, 2021 at 12:25:19 PM permalink


Apparently this is the work of “a disgruntled State Dept. staffer.”
Ding Dong the Witch is Dead
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 1170
January 11th, 2021 at 3:46:30 PM permalink
Quote: ams288



Apparently this is the work of “a disgruntled State Dept. staffer.”

I watched this on YOUTUBE. 2020 was unforgettable in a negative way. And I think 2021 will be even more unforgettable for the American people. God bless America.
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1761
Thanks for this post from:
ams288
January 11th, 2021 at 4:04:41 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

[ Any taker for no Biden inauguration on 24 Jan. 2021. I still have US$80 available.



I would bet my entire life savings on this.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 1170
January 11th, 2021 at 4:18:48 PM permalink
Quote: rsactuary

Quote: speedycrap

[ Any taker for no Biden inauguration on 24 Jan. 2021. I still have US$80 available.



I would bet my entire life savings on this.

What odds are you offering now please?
rsactuary
rsactuary
Joined: Sep 6, 2014
  • Threads: 21
  • Posts: 1761
January 11th, 2021 at 4:41:52 PM permalink
Quote: speedycrap

Quote: rsactuary

Quote: speedycrap

[ Any taker for no Biden inauguration on 24 Jan. 2021. I still have US$80 available.



I would bet my entire life savings on this.

What odds are you offering now please?



I'm going to save you $80. The inauguration is on Jan 20th, not the 24th. You're welcome.
speedycrap
speedycrap
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
  • Threads: 43
  • Posts: 1170
January 11th, 2021 at 4:50:59 PM permalink
I am sorry. My bad. Then make it 20 Jan 2021 No Biden Inauguration. Still interested?? I have US$80 ready and available.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
  • Threads: 1352
  • Posts: 22442
January 11th, 2021 at 4:53:58 PM permalink
Quote: SOOPOO

Is it legal for US citizens to make these bets? I do like your analysis on the EV available.



BetFair does not take US customers, which is the important thing.

I would argue a US citizen is breaking no law if you uses Bitcoin to move money around and bets on whatever he likes. The problem is using US banks to move money around for purposes of Internet gambling. Most European sports books and casinos respect US laws so don't allow us as customers.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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