Blackjack Hypo--It matters how other players play their hands!

I have read on this website and many others that it does not matter how other people at a blackjack table play their hands as it does not influence how you should play your hands. I believe this statement to be completely false. If you are a card counter then it matters even more. The following hypo shows why I believe that how others play their hands can drastically change your success at the table.

HYPO: You are at a blackjack table with 5 other players. Every player at the table is dealt a 16, in some form it doesn't matter, and the dealer is showing a 5. For the sake of argument, you are at 3rd base counting cards and you realize that if everyone stays the count for the next hand will have you betting a large amount of money. However, the players sitting next to you are a group of drunk bachelor's and one of them comes up with the idea that they should double down and they all take one card dealt face up and each is dealt a 10 and all of them bust taking with them at least 5 cards that should have been in the shoe on the next hand. And now your potential great count has turned south and you just missed a great opportunity to make a lot of money on a hand.

Now please explain to me how this doesn't change how you should play your hand? The dealer would have potentially busted and the count for the next hand would have been great. So if I am playing with anybody, how they play their hands always has some effect on the other player's at the table. I understand that sometimes playing by the "book" means the dealer makes a hand when he would have busted if you wouldn't have hit that 12 against the dealer 2, but I can live with that.

Is my logic wrong?

Quote: SONBP2

If you are a card counter...

This phrase changes everything.

Your scenario adds a lot to the argument as well.



But, for NON card counters, AND somewhat reasonable play, the other players actions don't matter.

In that scenario, yes I would be angry and then get up and move to another table.

But it is just as likely that you have a slightly positive count, and then 5 drunk guys keep hitting 12s against a 5 and draw out a bunch of low cards, and your count for the next hand becomes hugely in your favor and you thank them as you bet big. It all evens out.

The think about players being consistent is that you feel you are getting your fair card that you should have been dealt. Although it really doesn't matter, but psychologically it does if you double down a 11 against a 5, the guy before you hits on a 14 and busts with a 10, and then you get a 3 card, and the dealer makes an 18 and you lose. In the end, it all evens out, but you tend to remember more the card you should have been dealt, rather than the gift card you were dealt to make a good hand when you shouldn't have. Plus "bad" players are often slow and annoying and ruin the atmosphere.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

This phrase changes everything.

Your scenario adds a lot to the argument as well.



But, for NON card counters, AND somewhat reasonable play, the other players actions don't matter.

Even if you aren't a card counter, but understand that a lot more high cards in the deck increase your chances of winning then you recognize their hitting on those 16s as plays that will alter the outcome of your hand.

Quote: SONBP2

Is my logic wrong?

Yes, your logic is MOSTLY wrong.

It is just as likely that someone playing their hand badly will NOT take a card when they should--for instance, standing on 14 vs. a dealer 10, or not doubling down on A7 vs. a 5. In the long run, you (and the dealer) get a randomly selected card, whether is is the next card or (because of other players' actions) the seventh card.

It is likely that a lot of players hitting their hands in a positive count will lower the count, but you still benefit from counting; you can play your hand optimally. For instance, if the true count was +4 at the beginning of the hand, but by the time it got to you, it was now -1, you would change your decision on that hard 16 vs. the dealer 10 from "stand" to "hit".

The problem that does exist is that you can't change your bet after the cards are dealt, even if the count drops during the play of the hand. This is why many counters prefer to play alone; they know that their bet sizing will be correct when the decision comes to them (since no more cards will come out of the shoe before they make their playing decision).

So it's true that a lot of players at the table with you affects the accuracy of your betting, but not your playing decisions--in fact, those extra players HELP your playing decision, as you see that many more cards before you make that decision. And if you want to counteract the effect of those players "eating" your good cards, you can always sit at first base. But I would consider the added information I get from sitting at third base worth the occasional "card-eating" from other players. (By the way, whether those players are playing well or stupidly DOES NOT MATTER, though you tend to notice it more when someone does something dumb that makes you lose the hand.)

I notice when any one plays their hand wrong and the outcome it may have or does not have on my own hand. I have been playing for enough years to know that I have benefited from plenty of badly played hands. Their decisions may not affect how I am going to play my hands as I am always going to follow the book, but their decisions ALWAYS affect the result of the hand or potentially the next hand. I think misplaying hands has a much bigger effect in the long run then anyone realizes. I would be interested in a simulation of two guys playing millions of hands where one guy plays x amount of hands wrongly over the course of millions of hands verse all hands played properly, with the results focused on the profit/loss of the guy who played all hands properly in both cases.

And I have sat at tables with people splitting 10's, standing on soft 13's and every other bad move you can think of and I am winning every hand. The bad thing is that you see the bad plays and how it effects you. But if your winning like me, you're laughing at them.

Each misplay will add to the house advantage against the person making said misplay. Some will be more costly than others but they all add up. I don't concern myself with the play of others, I don't play at full tables and I do play at third base.

We need poor players so that the casinos don't make the games any worse than they are and card counters can still show a profit.

Quote: SONBP2

I think misplaying hands has a much bigger effect in the long run then anyone realizes. .

It has exactly as much effect as shuffling does. That 10 the guy before you had drawn out by mistake could very well just not have been there to begin with because the deck got shuffled slightly differently.