Which VP to play for $38k coin-in?

Caesars properties in Atlantic City have a 5x tier credit multiplier for Mondays in Oct.
that means to make 25k Diamond for free entry to the Diamond lounges, i only need 3800 tc. (3800 tc = $38000 coin-in)
(3800 x 5) + 5000 bonus (for 2.5k tc) + 1000 bonus (for 1k tc) = 25k tc

Best vp:
1) $2 Ultimate X single line '9/6 ddb', return= 99.29%, var= 73
- High variance
- I dont know the strategy so i have to look up the charts for alot of hands
- $10 coin-in per spin so 3800 hands. At 600 hands per hr, i'm normally playing for about 6.33 hrs but since i dont know the strategy, i'll be LONGER.

2) $1 Double Pay '9/7 tdb' (10 coin), return = 99.21%, var = 85
- Highest Variance
- Since it's 10 coin per spin, it's the same $10 coin-in per spin as the other 2 options.

3) $2 9/7 db, return = 99.11%, var = 28.5
- Low variance

Which would you choose to play $38k coin-in?
Why?

Of two evils, choose neither.

With perfect play one costs $270, the other $300. How much free play or other comps would you get?

To me, if the free play and other comps are similar, I'd play the one I know the strategy on, rather than needing to look at a card.

Edit.... I did not include tax consequences in my analysis. If getting a W2G is a big deal for you, then pick whichever one is less likely to make that threshold.

1) Who told you that 9/6 DDB UX single line was 99.29%? The straight only pays 7X in that game! Pretty sure it's not that high. JB's VP analyzer only says it's 98.95%.

All these aren't great, but I probably pick #3 if you know the strategy.

And you need to earn all 25k tier? Haven't played CET at all this year?

I would probably play the $2 DB game.

Quote: tringlomane

1) Who told you that 9/6 DDB UX single line was 99.29%? The straight only pays 7X in that game! Pretty sure it's not that high. JB's VP analyzer only says it's 98.95%.

All these aren't great, but I probably pick #3 if you know the strategy.

And you need to earn all 25k tier? Haven't played CET at all this year?

a mathlete named Gary K, who has written a paper on Ultimate X.
he's also a member on this board.

edit:
yes, need all 25k.
i havent been to Caesars this year.
wasnt even planning on playing there again because Atlantic City has lost it's appeal to me.
then the 5x promo popped up, as if they read my mind.

Caesar's is doing 2x tier credits at allproperties in October if you sign up with this link:

https://www.caesars.com/myrewards/promotions/2x-tier-credit-multiplier

I haven't played at all at Caesar's this year but I will now probably go and get my Diamond.

Quote: DRich

Caesar's is doing 2x tier credits at allproperties in October if you sign up with this link:

https://www.caesars.com/myrewards/promotions/2x-tier-credit-multiplier

I haven't played at all at Caesar's this year but I will now probably go and get my Diamond.

doesnt stack with Caesars Atlantic City's 5x multiplier.
you get the higher of the two (thus 5x) if you play there

Quote: SOOPOO

Edit.... I did not include tax consequences in my analysis. If getting a W2G is a big deal for you, then pick whichever one is less likely to make that threshold.

doh.. forgot about taxes.

tdb is a feast or famine game.
if you dont hit special quads with kicker, you go broke.
and quads with kicker is either $2k or $4k.

for Ult X, i have to get quads or better with 5x+ multiplier for a w2-g.
for db, i have to get quad Aces or a Royal.

i guess db it is because:
1) even though ult X has higher return, it has WAY higher variance. Since im playing for a specific goal (25k Diamond tier), i should minimize variance, right?
2) and i dont have to shuffle back and forth looking up the right play for this one time event

Thx

Quote: SOOPOO

Edit.... I did not include tax consequences in my analysis. If getting a W2G is a big deal for you, then pick whichever one is less likely to make that threshold.

I don't see any tax consequences. I am sure everybody declares all of their wins, not just the W2G's.

Quote: 100xOdds

a mathlete named Gary K, who has written a paper on Ultimate X.
he's also a member on this board.

edit:
yes, need all 25k.
i havent been to Caesars this year.
wasnt even planning on playing there again because Atlantic City has lost it's appeal to me.
then the 5x promo popped up, as if they read my mind.

Ok i think I found the discrepancy. I thought all quads+ paid 2X, not 4X. If they pay 4X, the return sounds right with perfect multiplier dependent strategy. But good luck being perfect!

I still probably do 9/7/5 DB instead.