DorothyGale
DorothyGale
Joined: Nov 23, 2009
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October 16th, 2010 at 10:03:13 AM permalink
Heya all you pros out there ... after the "triple down" promotion at the Mohegan Sun, I've got a few questions about promos ...

How often do you find promos you can make serious $$$ off of? What fraction of your earnings is due to promos? What's the most you ever made from a promo? How much research do you put into finding promos? Anything else ...

I'm not looking for details, keep your gold to yourself ...

Thanks!!!

--Ms. D.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 16th, 2010 at 10:30:23 AM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

Heya all you pros out there ... after the "triple down" promotion at the Mohegan Sun, I've got a few questions about promos ...

How often do you find promos you can make serious $$$ off of? What fraction of your earnings is due to promos? What's the most you ever made from a promo? How much research do you put into finding promos? Anything else ...

I'm not looking for details, keep your gold to yourself ...

Thanks!!!

--Ms. D.



Promos used to be a peripheral part of most APs' strategy. With blackjack, video poker, and many other games offering a reliable, inherent edge, there was no need to chase promotions. However, now that just about all positive EV games have been squeezed out of existence, it has become absolutely vital to have one's ear to the ground, and to be prepared to jump on a good promotion as soon as it becomes available.

Promotions are inherently unstable. First of all, they are usually for a quite limited time, and very often, a casino will cancel a promo without notice (Terrible's in Vegas is notorious for doing this). One occurence that will kill a promo before its time is if it is so favorable that the pros descend on it en masse. I have seen promos die within two hours in such a case.

There is an informal grapevine that exists for promos--but that said, most surviving APs keep information on juicy promos to themselves. It used to be that internet chat boards were a good source of tips, but nowadays, if a good play appears on an internet board, it's already dead. Most casinos maintain a lurker on all of the major chat boards, such as VpFree and twoplustwo. The time between the posting of a good play and its obliteration has often been shockingly short--a matter of hours. So most APs rely on themselves as their primary sources of information.

It is critical to have the liquid bankroll and the game preparation to be able to jump on a promo, given its (inevitably) severely limited life. Game strategy modifications may have to be invented on the fly. There may be time of day or day of the week restrictions, so APs who chase promos may not get much sleep. Some positive EV plays involve earning drawing entries, and that usually necessitiates a subsequent trip to the casino for the drawing.

My personal experience is that there have been several promos that I've made $3000-$10,000 from, including video poker and slot tourneys, double-royal video poker promos, drawings, and special-hand bonuses (like 678 of hearts in blackjack). I don't, and never have, put all that much effort into finding the best promos, because I'm no longer a full-time AP. But back in the day (90's), you didn't HAVE to put much effort into finding juicy promos--they were EVERYWHERE (sigh).

I would say that 20 years ago, promos were 5-10% of an AP's source of profit--but I knew I few who ONLY worked promotions, and did quite well at it. Nowadays, I think that promos are the PRIMARY source of AP earnings. It's just too hard to make money off of the games themselves any more.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
Joined: Jun 28, 2010
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October 16th, 2010 at 11:18:35 AM permalink
Sounds like a lot of nonsense to me. Why do the casinos offer promotions? YES!...they do it to get in as many of these AP's as they possibly can, of course. This notion that "the AP's descend upon the play and kill it within a few hours" is hogwash, and it's fully supported by the fact that there are endless promotions ongoing in LV, Reno and Laughlin that are put in place with full knowledge that AP's will appear from out of the woodwork in mass, and these non-stop promos are make vp theoretically way over the magical 100% threshhold. Please spare us the theory of how afraid casinos are of getting these people in to play.

This past week I received an offer from the Edgewater, a place I've played to and from my trips to LV on occasion. It's connected to a 45 day promo that adds 1.67% in point-retaining cashback and all machines are included, so that's enough to put some at over a theoretical 3% "advantage". They do this type thing all the time and I never bother with them unless I'm going to LV on a planned trip. I have several AP friends in LV that received the offer and they said they were going to pound away at it like they do every time they get similar offers from there, and they, like me, are high-limit players (meaning $5 machines). They also said they knew of at least 20 others from town that were going to do their usual trek down to Laughlin for the event because it was so "lucrative" as they put it.

So tell me this: if all these pros descend upon such promos just as they are expected to, and if the casinos are taking it so far up the ass in the process, how do they continue with these and why are none of these "winners" ever banned from playing?

I'll say it because it'll be a struggle for you to get the words out: "Because they mostly LOSE when they play"! How tough is it to understand this anyway?
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 16th, 2010 at 11:55:12 AM permalink
Quote: JerryLogan

Sounds like a lot of nonsense to me. Why do the casinos offer promotions? YES!...they do it to get in as many of these AP's as they possibly can, of course. This notion that "the AP's descend upon the play and kill it within a few hours" is hogwash, and it's fully supported by the fact that there are endless promotions ongoing in LV, Reno and Laughlin that are put in place with full knowledge that AP's will appear from out of the woodwork in mass, and these non-stop promos are make vp theoretically way over the magical 100% threshhold. Please spare us the theory of how afraid casinos are of getting these people in to play.

This past week I received an offer from the Edgewater, a place I've played to and from my trips to LV on occasion. It's connected to a 45 day promo that adds 1.67% in point-retaining cashback and all machines are included, so that's enough to put some at over a theoretical 3% "advantage". They do this type thing all the time and I never bother with them unless I'm going to LV on a planned trip. I have several AP friends in LV that received the offer and they said they were going to pound away at it like they do every time they get similar offers from there, and they, like me, are high-limit players (meaning $5 machines). They also said they knew of at least 20 others from town that were going to do their usual trek down to Laughlin for the event because it was so "lucrative" as they put it.

So tell me this: if all these pros descend upon such promos just as they are expected to, and if the casinos are taking it so far up the ass in the process, how do they continue with these and why are none of these "winners" ever banned from playing?

I'll say it because it'll be a struggle for you to get the words out: "Because they mostly LOSE when they play"! How tough is it to understand this anyway?



Jerry, we already know you're an intellectually lazy, losing sucker who excuses his own failures by asserting that success is impossible.

The reason, of course, that casinos offer promos, even though those promos create a theoretical winning situation for APs, is that those APs are far outnumbered by the suckers. The casinos SHOULD, in fact, tolerate the APs, but they usually don't, and when the casinos kill their promotions for fear of APs, they are costing themselves money. Your assertion that casinos offer 100%+ promotions "to get in as many of those APs as they possibly can"---well, my God, Jerry, that's an amazingly stupid thing to say, even for YOU (and that's saying something!). Casinos offer promos to attract advantage players? I guess if you believe that there's no such thing as an AP--something you've implied in other posts--then in your dreamworld, a casino might construct a promo FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE of ferreting out and destroying those who THINK they are APs. Nonsense, of course.

I know you're a loser who doesn't want to admit that anyone else can win. This makes you feel better about your own loser status, since you can tell yourself that your failure isn't due to any lack of ability or effort on your part. Those magical VP promos that exist by the billions in Nevada are real only in your imagination. I could name half a dozen VP promos in Vegas alone in 2009 that were over 101% and were quickly snuffed out due to AP play. But what's the point of relating them to YOU? You'd just crap on anything I said in that regard, because for you, reality takes a back seat to convincing yourself that you aren't a loser, or that losing isn't really your fault.

If you know about that promo at the Edgewater, and you don't take advantage of it, well, Jerry, that makes you a loser. Your figure of 3% is way off, since the Edgewater doesn't offer any games that pay 101.33% off the top, but you would still have a decent advantage nonetheless. The Edgewater's base point return on FPVP is only 0.033%, so that would have to be one HELL of a point multiplier to get to 1.67% cashback; even -EV VP is only 0.1%. So you're seriously telling us that the Edgewater is offering over SIXTEEN TIMES CASHBACK to ANYBODY? Get real! The real bonus probably gives something like an EV of +0.5%, which is more than enough to get a serious AP to play. In any case, that is what APs do--they exploit SMALL edges.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
Joined: Jun 28, 2010
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October 16th, 2010 at 12:14:33 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Jerry, we already know you're an intellectually lazy, losing sucker who excuses his own failures by asserting that success is impossible.

The reason, of course, that casinos offer promos, even though those promos create a theoretical winning situation for APs, is that those APs are far outnumbered by the suckers. The casinos SHOULD, in fact, tolerate the APs, but they usually don't, and when the casinos kill their promotions for fear of APs, they are costing themselves money. Your assertion that casinos offer 100%+ promotions "to get in as many of those APs as they possibly can"---well, my God, Jerry, that's an amazingly stupid thing to say, even for YOU (and that's saying something!). Casinos offer promos to attract advantage players? I guess if you believe that there's no such thing as an AP--something you've implied in other posts--then in your dreamworld, a casino might construct a promo FOR THE SOLE PURPOSE of ferreting out and destroying those who THINK they are APs. Nonsense, of course.

I know you're a loser who doesn't want to admit that anyone else can win. This makes you feel better about your own loser status, since you can tell yourself that your failure isn't due to any lack of ability or effort on your part. Those magical VP promos that exist by the billions in Nevada are real only in your imagination. I could name half a dozen VP promos in Vegas alone in 2009 that were over 101% and were quickly snuffed out due to AP play. But what's the point of relating them to YOU? You'd just crap on anything I said in that regard, because for you, reality takes a back seat to convincing yourself that you aren't a loser, or that losing isn't really your fault.

If you know about that promo at the Edgewater, and you don't take advantage of it, well, Jerry, that makes you a loser. Your figure of 3% is way off, since the Edgewater doesn't offer any games that pay 101.33% off the top, but you would still have a decent advantage nonetheless. The Edgewater's base point return on FPVP is only 0.033%, so that would have to be one HELL of a point multiplier to get to 1.67% cashback; even -EV VP is only 0.1%. So you're seriously telling us that the Edgewater is offering over SIXTEEN TIMES CASHBACK to ANYBODY? Get real! The real bonus probably gives something like an EV of +0.5%, which is more than enough to get a serious AP to play. In any case, that is what APs do--they exploit SMALL edges.



Typical...under your skin and you ignore the facts that allow it!

You're handing out the same tired BS that "all the suckers lose and the AP's win". Here's a clue for you to think about as you're reading through your dictionary to counter your dumb statements with impressive wording: AP's play higher limits; those "suckers" go into play anyway, and most of them play nickels.

One thing you might think about is fine-tuning your math skills. Their cashback is .33% not .033% and nothing is excluded. How do I know this? I asked on my last visit. By the way genius, FPVP isn't just FPDW, 10/7 DB, FPJP or 10/6 DDB. It's EVERY game offerred at full pay, such as 8/5 BP and 9/6 JoB. You have no clue. And the 1.67% bonus is based on the calculation from the offers sent out. One more flash for you to cry about: They also have comp dollars at .33%, free room offers that have value, and they regularly send out freeplay to their players. Maybe you ought to actually GO there instead of being a computer-jockey who finds solace and adventure in "the funny math" and quoting your stupid theories for a change.
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
Joined: Nov 23, 2009
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October 16th, 2010 at 12:43:16 PM permalink
Jerry, please stop posting in this thread.
mkl654321, please top posting in this thread.
Both, please take your fight anywhere else but here.
Wizard, et. al., please keep threads clean, as best you can. Thanks.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
Joined: Oct 19, 2009
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October 16th, 2010 at 2:04:59 PM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

How often do you find promos you can make serious $$$ off of?

Probably not often. Many promotions have been ill thought-out by the casino and provide more opportunity than the casino wanted to provide.
Most promotions are meant to increase traffic and are often described in exaggerated and misleading terms.
There are websites that keep track of casino promotions and many people subscribe to twitter feeds either directly from the casino or from intermediary services.
mkl654321
mkl654321
Joined: Aug 8, 2010
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October 16th, 2010 at 3:07:09 PM permalink
Quote: DorothyGale

Jerry, please stop posting in this thread.
mkl654321, please top posting in this thread.
Both, please take your fight anywhere else but here.
Wizard, et. al., please keep threads clean, as best you can. Thanks.



Fine, Dorothy, but at least I tried to actually answer your question.

My mistake was in responding to JerryLogan at all.
The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw
JerryLogan
JerryLogan
Joined: Jun 28, 2010
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October 16th, 2010 at 3:27:51 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

Fine, Dorothy, but at least I tried to actually answer your question.

My mistake was in responding to JerryLogan at all.



Act like a man for a change and stop acting like a whiny old fart. And we get it, you couldn't help yourself....again!
DorothyGale
DorothyGale
Joined: Nov 23, 2009
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October 16th, 2010 at 3:51:50 PM permalink
Quote: mkl654321

My mistake was in responding to JerryLogan at all.

Exactly, so just stop responding. What do you care what nonsense he says? I don't care. You have some experience with promotions, so do I. Let Logan post, let him say nonsense, who cares? I'm not responding to his crap, why are you? If he calls you out, insults you, takes a swipe, whatever, just take a deep breath and don't respond.

Don't respond.

Don't respond.

Don't respond.

Don't even post that you're not going to respond.

Just don't respond to Logan's posts.

Often, you say things that have meaning. You often go outside of what you know and give advice or information that it's pretty clear you are stretching, or possibly even clueless about. That's ok. I don't call you out on it (very often). And sometimes you say things that are worthwhile. If I engaged with you every time you were piping in where you didn't know what you were talking about (like, for example, advantage play against instant18), then it would be a problem for me. I deal with your penchant for making shi* up and fighting with others by having you on my blocked list. Once in a while, I read your posts, because you have occasion to say interesting things when it's really in your zone. So, be more like that, and less like the other, and you'll get more respect.

Ms. D.
"Who would have thought a good little girl like you could destroy my beautiful wickedness!"

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