GAMBLERS FALLACY
You got to love them though, they sure do know the math, to bad they are just blinded by it. Here I always thought that the best bet was the one that I kept getting paid off on as the roll was going on, lets see I got paid five times, and they got paid once on the same roll, Gee I guess that they made the best bet, or was it just a gamblers fallacy?
Quote: superrickNo Bob you got that wrong, it's the favorite word for the math guys, where oh where would we be without them, I know the best bet is got to be that 1.47% bet they think everybody is just stupid for not betting!
You got to love them though, they sure do know the math, to bad they are just blinded by it. Here I always thought that the best bet was the one that I kept getting paid off on as the roll was going on, lets see I got paid five times, and they got paid once on the same roll, Gee I guess that they made the best bet, or was it just a gamblers fallacy?
Actually, the term has a specific meaning. It refers to the misconception that random outcomes "even out" over time; if there is an apparent skewing or bias in one direction, then subsequent outcomes will trend in the opposite direction. It's also (fallaciously) referred to as the "law of averages".
That aside, what makes a bet "good" or "bad" is not the result of that bet (whether someone won five times, once, or not at all), but rather, whether that bet had the best possible expected value (not necessarily the best chance of winning). In your example, if you placed the 10, and another player placed the 6, and five 10s in a row rolled, the guy who placed the 6 still made the better bet. The actual results don't matter in assessing whether a given bet was better or worse than another.
Quote: mkl654321Actually, the term has a specific meaning. .
Here are just s few definitions of Gambler's Fallacy:
>>>Deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future.
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken notion that the odds for something with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending upon recent occurrences.
The Gambler's Fallacy is committed when a person assumes that a departure from what occurs on average or in the long term will be corrected in the short term.
When an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events.
The gambler’s fallacy is the fallacy of assuming that short-term deviations from probability will be corrected in the short-term.
A phenomenon whereby people inappropriately predict reversal.
The false belief that it’s possible to predict the future by examining the past.
Refers to the belief that a streak is more likely to end than chance would dictate.>>>>
Gambler's Fallacy appears to mean whatever you like it to mean.
Quote: CroupierI take it to mean that past outcomes hold no bearing over future events. So for example just because the last 53 spins were red, black is not due.
It may not be due but it sure as hell would be a good bet.
Quote: EvenBobHere are just s few definitions of Gambler's Fallacy:
>>>Deviations are likely to be evened out by opposite deviations in the future.
The gambler's fallacy is the mistaken notion that the odds for something with a fixed probability increase or decrease depending upon recent occurrences.
The Gambler's Fallacy is committed when a person assumes that a departure from what occurs on average or in the long term will be corrected in the short term.
When an individual erroneously believes that the onset of a certain random event is less likely to happen following an event or a series of events.
The gambler’s fallacy is the fallacy of assuming that short-term deviations from probability will be corrected in the short-term.
A phenomenon whereby people inappropriately predict reversal.
The false belief that it’s possible to predict the future by examining the past.
Refers to the belief that a streak is more likely to end than chance would dictate.>>>>
Gambler's Fallacy appears to mean whatever you like it to mean.
These all seem to be much the same definitions of the same effect. I'm not sure I see a difference or whatever I'd like it to mean. None of these state anything like "the 54 bus will always been late" :)
Betting Red on a wheel that went 53 Black wouldn't be a good bet....
Quote: thecesspit
Betting Red on a wheel that went 53 Black wouldn't be a good bet....
All things considered, it wouldn't be a bad bet. The longest run of red or black ever recorded was in the 30's in South America and I think it was around 40. If I saw 53 blacks I would bet red in a heartbeat. I'm a firm believer in saying 'screw gambler's fallacy' every chance I get.
Quote: EvenBobAll things considered, it wouldn't be a bad bet. The longest run of red or black ever recorded was in the 30's in South America and I think it was around 40. If I saw 53 blacks I would bet red in a heartbeat. I'm a firm believer in saying 'screw gambler's fallacy' every chance I get.
I would personally get on black because its running hot :)
And the casino manager would announce Ladies and Gentlemen, our roulette wheel has had a succession of 53 spins on Black but make no predictions. All those bettors flocking to it are what he wants. Hence the annunciator device.Quote: biggiantheadI would personally get on black because its running hot :)
Seriously: I would not think it some sort of biased wheel unless it was all the same number. It was a really long string. I know, absolutely know, the next number could be Red, Black or Green with the same chances of each as on all those other spins. I wouldn't know whether its the ball that likes Black or the Wheel that likes Black... but I'd go with Black one more time and then switch to Red.
We ALL know that spins 1 thru 53 have no effect on spin 54. We all know that annunciator device is just to induce some sort of emotional "certainty" to the betting behavior of the players so as to get them to bet more money. We all know that on that very next spin, the odds clearly favor the casino owner.
.....GREAT topic. You hit a couple key points on the head! I have done a few threads on this subject in the past. I read one definition that GF is..... If I bet $5 on the #7 one time (lets say it does not hit).....the next and ONLY spin, I then bet $6 on #7. Thats also gamblers fallacy. WTF? I also believe that most AP (cough) is gamblers fallacy.Quote: EvenBobThis is probably the most over used and wrongly used catch phrase in gambling. It seems to have many meanings to many people. They use it to describe any strategy or method or idea that doesn't fit in with their philosophy of gambling. Its so over used that it really has no meaning anymore.
To be HONEST, I have a hard time decidng in regards to playing certain style methods based on GF. I'll give an example >> I cross off all numbers hit until only one is left. That is around 200-250 spins. I then start a 100 step progression on that last number. So thats a TOTAL of 300-350 spins. Yes, I have lost on it before *BUT* I have also had some VERY nice winning days. My point being, 325 spins is alot for a number not to hit. Save the speach, yes a number might not hit for 6,408 spins. blah blah blah
I think I understand the ORIGINAL interpretation of GF..... (Example:) The first spin, the second column hits. The next spin, the first column hits. The next spin, that third column MUST NOW HIT !! I believe examples like that are TRUE gamblers fallacy. The term gamblers fallacy can not and should not be used for EVERY roulette method. Ken
This anomaly will be crushed by the weight of numbers. The balls / dice / whatever do not feel an obligation to immediately fix such things, lest they start to annoy God!
If we shouldn't become suspicious about 53 consecutive results of "black", then I think manufacturing industry should just give up on statistical process control.
I seem to have read this somewhere else before, said more succinctly ... can't think of it now.Quote: mkl654321The actual results don't matter in assessing whether a given bet was better or worse than another.
Perhaps in the Wizard's signature line? Nah, must have been someplace else.Quote: teddysI seem to have read this somewhere else before, said more succinctly ... can't think of it now.
Quote: mrjjj.....GREAT topic. You hit a couple key points on the head! I have done a few threads on this subject in the past. I read one definition that GF is..... If I bet $5 on the #7 one time (lets say it does not hit).....the next and ONLY spin, I then bet $6 on #7. Thats also gamblers fallacy. WTF? I also believe that most AP (cough) is gamblers fallacy.
I'll repeat it again, Advantage Play is not the Gambler's Fallacy. It is nothing to do with the Gambler's Fallacy.
Roulette AP probably does not exist before we go down that end.
The Wizard's signature line is wrong!Quote: DocPerhaps in the Wizard's signature line?
Its not whether you had a good bet that matters. Its whether your bet won that matters.
Its just that in order to have a bet that wins, its generally best to recall the Damon Runyon routine and accept the Wizard's definition of good.
A flat bet with maximum odds is most likely to turn out to be a sensible technique. A Hop Bet will win big bucks, but not because the dice heard anything about new shoes or the shooter being hot or the dice being hot or you being a sharp gambler.
That annunciator is there to tell you what the past spins of the wheel were because its a casino come-on. The Baccarat charts and annunciators are the same. The Gambler thinks that his winning confirms some unique aspect to his skill or his karma. He won the most recent spin, so he is "lucky" and will win the next spin as well. He will quit when his luck "turns", but right now he has "luck". He has hot dice, hot hands, a hot wheel, a hot shoe or something. No, the Gambler merely has a recent history and a penchant for making bets. If he makes bets he can win them. If he doesn't make bets, he can't win. So his behavior continues. If the hot dice remain hot, the Gambler confirms his wisdom.
The Basic Strategy bet will likely confer upon him a good many confirmations of "his luck". The Hop Bet or other long shot will most likely erode his bankroll.
Good bet? I'll tell you when the wheel stops spinning and the ball drops or when the Stickman calls out the results.
Quote: thecesspitI'll repeat it again, Advantage Play is not the Gambler's Fallacy. It is nothing to do with the Gambler's Fallacy.
Roulette AP probably does not exist before we go down that end.
You have to understand that sneering at Advantage Play is mrjjj's way of justifying his own unwillingness to learn about it. In point of fact, AP is based in part on the REFUTATION of "Gambler's Fallacy".
Exampel you have 37 degree of freedom when you play no matter what you do - same dose not apply for AP.
O_o
mrjjj and those who look at things the way he does (like you perhaps EvenBob) are open to the belief that when something happens in roulette that the opposite of that is more likely to happen on the following spin. To expand that scenario, if something happens many times in a row then the opposite is much more likely to happen on the next spin. Conversely, if something has not happened for a while (a street has not hit for 50 spins or a number has not hit for 200 spins for example) then it is more likely to hit in the near future.
The "math guys" on this site will tell you why this is not so but you insist on saying that it is. The math guys have math and history on their side. I ask anyone to give me some amount of evidence to support the claim that suggests anyone can create a "winning system (method)" by looking at what has happened in the past and using that information to more correctly predict what will happen in the future. (mrjjj, the floor is open. Please feel free to explain why waiting for something to not happen for a long time makes it more likely to happen than the math would dictate.) By the way, evidence does not include someone telling me how much they've won using such a system (method). Evidence does not include telling me that someone you know has won consistently. I can tell you that I've won $200 a day for the past 3 years playing roulette and it means squat without any evidence.
Look at it this way EvenBob. I give you a scenario where you walk into a casino and stand beside 2 roulette wheels, one on your left and one on your right. Without any information as to what the last spin was on either wheel, would you have any idea what colour will come up next? No, of course not. Now I tell you that the wheel on the left has just had 10 blacks in a row and the wheel on the right has just had 10 reds in a row. Can you (or anyone) PLEASE tell me how this information has ANY bearing on the potential outcome of the next spin? Both roulette wheels still have 38 spaces (AR) with 2 greens, 18 reds and 18 blacks. Why would knowing where the ball has dropped last spin (or the last 20 spins) give you any indication of where it's going to drop next spin?
Sure, it's nice to look at past results and FEEL that you have a better idea of what will happen next but it just doesn't work like that, regardless of how tempting it may be to believe that it does. Unless anyone can give me a teeny, tiny bit of real evidence that past results in roulette do INFLUENCE future spins then I guess we can put this one to bed.
Quote: TheNightflySure, it's nice to look at past results and FEEL that you have a better idea of what will happen next but it just doesn't work like that, regardless of how tempting it may be to believe that it does. Unless anyone can give me a teeny, tiny bit of real evidence that past results in roulette do INFLUENCE future spins then I guess we can put this one to bed.
Unfortunately, confirmation bias rears its ugly head. Red comes up twenty spins in a row. The next spin is red. Aha! I knew it! OR...the next spin is black. Obviously an anomaly...disregard.
The trouble is, red WILL come up often enough--i.e., just a tad less than half the time--to provide reinforcement to the confirmation bias. A contention like "Every time the Cubs win the World Series, a giant meteor slams into the earth" would be much easier to disprove. (Those two things both happened in 1908.)
Most of us on this forum know that betting systems are worthless. And the countless posts to the 3 or 4 'believers' just tickle me to no end.
Some people only find joy in being arbitrary, and even more joy causing the rest to defend the sensible position.
If any of these folks actually won consistently with their systems, why on earth would they be posting here. I, for one, would be at the Bellagio working on my umpteenth wheelbarrow of chocolate cheques.
I shall slink back in my cave now and count the money from my (documented on this site) 7-2-1 football weekend. A winning record made by hard work, research, and a little 'luck'. And at three bills a game, that is real profit, not some 'system' pipe dream. Of course I am just as pleased to post my losses as well, something I notice the 'system' players never seem to do.
The Gamblers Fallacy is what it is, and no futher debate is needed.
Quote: TheNightflyGambler's Fallacy simply implies (regardless of how it's worded) that what has happened in the past has no bearing on what will happen in the future. You say that the longest run ever recorded was around 40. So if you had jumped in at 40 and bet against the run then you would have lost for the next 13 spins and STILL have no better knowledge as to what was coming up next.
mrjjj and those who look at things the way he does (like you perhaps EvenBob) are open to the belief that when something happens in roulette that the opposite of that is more likely to happen on the following spin. To expand that scenario, if something happens many times in a row then the opposite is much more likely to happen on the next spin. Conversely, if something has not happened for a while (a street has not hit for 50 spins or a number has not hit for 200 spins for example) then it is more likely to hit in the near future.
The "math guys" on this site will tell you why this is not so but you insist on saying that it is. The math guys have math and history on their side. I ask anyone to give me some amount of evidence to support the claim that suggests anyone can create a "winning system (method)" by looking at what has happened in the past and using that information to more correctly predict what will happen in the future. (mrjjj, the floor is open. Please feel free to explain why waiting for something to not happen for a long time makes it more likely to happen than the math would dictate.) By the way, evidence does not include someone telling me how much they've won using such a system (method). Evidence does not include telling me that someone you know has won consistently. I can tell you that I've won $200 a day for the past 3 years playing roulette and it means squat without any evidence.
Look at it this way EvenBob. I give you a scenario where you walk into a casino and stand beside 2 roulette wheels, one on your left and one on your right. Without any information as to what the last spin was on either wheel, would you have any idea what colour will come up next? No, of course not. Now I tell you that the wheel on the left has just had 10 blacks in a row and the wheel on the right has just had 10 reds in a row. Can you (or anyone) PLEASE tell me how this information has ANY bearing on the potential outcome of the next spin? Both roulette wheels still have 38 spaces (AR) with 2 greens, 18 reds and 18 blacks. Why would knowing where the ball has dropped last spin (or the last 20 spins) give you any indication of where it's going to drop next spin?
Sure, it's nice to look at past results and FEEL that you have a better idea of what will happen next but it just doesn't work like that, regardless of how tempting it may be to believe that it does. Unless anyone can give me a teeny, tiny bit of real evidence that past results in roulette do INFLUENCE future spins then I guess we can put this one to bed.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/2799-past-numbers-have-nothing-to-do-with-future-events/
Not quire sure what we are supposed to make of it.
Should I bet on Banker or Player? Ooops... Red or Black? Which is the "trend"... which is the spin on which the trend reverses itself?
Ken
Quote: mrjjjAP (cough) I must also group in with 'gamblers fallacy', no question about it !!
Ken
I must also group Ken in with "Gambler's Idiocy", no question about it!
Quote: MarieBicurieI must also group Ken in with "Gambler's Idiocy", no question about it!
Somebody needs to inform Ken that an idiotic statement followed by, "no question about it!" is still an idiotic statement.
LOL. And ROFL. And ka-ka poo-poo.
Quote: FleaStiffI guess this graph depicts a sequence at a roulette wheel and the numbers at the top of each bar indicate some sort of running total.
Not quire sure what we are supposed to make of it.
Should I bet on Banker or Player? Ooops... Red or Black? Which is the "trend"... which is the spin on which the trend reverses itself?
I like the way they encourage you to use a pen and paper in those games, but you're not allowed to in blackjack. You think that would give some people a clue.
Quote: mkl654321Somebody needs to inform Ken that an idiotic statement followed by, "no question about it!" is still an idiotic statement.
LOL. And ROFL. And ka-ka poo-poo.
AP? Hey, its your dream mkl, make it as big as you want. lol
Ken
It's like someone gave out an atlas with a map of Japan, a picture of Japanese cities and some testimony and reviews of japanese hotels, restaurants and lifestyle, and then showed you Akira, Seven Samurai and Takeshi's castle, but a disbeliever made the claim that Japan doesn't exist, because it's not like the story written by Swift.
Quote: thecesspitAgain with this, Mr JJJ... you misquote and get confused all over the place. AP does not just mean looking for biased wheel on roulette. AP is not a dream, and Advantage play situations exist (and have been talked about repeatedly on this website... in fact there's a thread on some older ones RIGHT now).
It's like someone gave out an atlas with a map of Japan, a picture of Japanese cities and some testimony and reviews of japanese hotels, restaurants and lifestyle, and then showed you Akira, Seven Samurai and Takeshi's castle, but a disbeliever made the claim that Japan doesn't exist, because it's not like the story written by Swift.
Where did I say that AP (cough) is ONLY looking for biased wheels?
Ken
Quote: mrjjjWhere did I say that AP (cough) is ONLY looking for biased wheels?
Ken
When I asked you sometime ago what you meant by AP. You referred only to wheel tracking on roulette and said that you consdiered only Roulette when talking about advantage play.
Maybe I misunderstood.
Let the audience know and re-educate myself what YOU mean by AP?
(note: you don't need to write (cough) after it each time... we get you need a Hall's....)
Its the EASY way out when discussing how to play this game.
I'll give a BS example for you >>> Hey guys, guess what? For the last three months I have been SEARCHING for a tilted wheel and have finally found one! I walked in with a 6K BR and by the time I left, I netted over 11K. Boy-o-boy, all that hard work sure did payoff. <<< ROFL, okay, does this now mean I fit in better with the crew? More and more people post this garbage knowing damn well that they failed. I give'em the credit for trying, but thats where it ends, sorry.
Ken
Quote: mrjjjDS, wheel tracking etc.
Its the EASY way out when discussing how to play this game.
I'll give a BS example for you >>> Hey guys, guess what? For the last three months I have been SEARCHING for a tilted wheel and have finally found one! I walked in with a 6K BR and by the time I left, I netted over 11K. Boy-o-boy, all that hard work sure did payoff. <<< ROFL, okay, does this now mean I fit in better with the crew? More and more people post this garbage knowing damn well that they failed. I give'em the credit for trying, but thats where it ends, sorry.
Ken
So why Mrjjj, dont you share with us your knowledge of the alternatives, instead of just shooting down everyone else who might have something to say about a specific point.
Quote: CroupierSo why Mrjjj, dont you share with us your knowledge of the alternatives, instead of just shooting down everyone else who might have something to say about a specific point.
I will never never never act as if I know it all, lets not go there. I'm only saying, its process of elimination. IMO.....playing a few 'good' methods after YEARS of experimenting/testing/tweaking with a large BR, flat OR progression, great bet selection, playing 2-4 numbers max., perhaps tracking first etc., is the way to go, IMO.
If you want to go searching for a tilted wheel in 2011, go ahead, no person will stop you.
Ken
Quote: mrjjjDS, wheel tracking etc.
Its the EASY way out when discussing how to play this game.
I'll give a BS example for you >>> Hey guys, guess what? For the last three months I have been SEARCHING for a tilted wheel and have finally found one! I walked in with a 6K BR and by the time I left, I netted over 11K. Boy-o-boy, all that hard work sure did payoff. <<< ROFL, okay, does this now mean I fit in better with the crew? More and more people post this garbage knowing damn well that they failed. I give'em the credit for trying, but thats where it ends, sorry.
Ken
DS, being?
So all AP is JUST roulette, much as I stated. Wheel-tracking and a bias wheel seem much the same too me, so my point stands... AP to YOU only means roulette where you look for a non-random wheel or track numbers on a wheel?
I wasn't looking for an example, and you appear to be replying to a different question from the one asked. Running and hiding, much as your type of troll does when challenged on their rubbish.
And I re-state... this a very narrow meaning of AP, much as Swift's story on Japan is a very narrow vision of that country (much as it was meant to be). AP does exist, and you can't dismiss it just because you want to use a it to mean a different thing that NO-ONE else does.
Quote: mrjjjI will never never never act as if I know it all, lets not go there. I'm only saying, its process of elimination. IMO.....playing a few 'good' methods after YEARS of experimenting/testing/tweaking with a large BR, flat OR progression, great bet selection, playing 2-4 numbers max., perhaps tracking first etc., is the way to go, IMO.
If you want to go searching for a tilted wheel in 2011, go ahead, no person will stop you.
Ken
Ken, for the record, do you believe that by tracking previous numbers on a roulette wheel that you will have a better idea of what numbers (or sections) are more (or less) likely to hit on future rolls?
Quote: mrjjjI will never never never act as if I know it all, lets not go there. I'm only saying, its process of elimination. IMO.....playing a few 'good' methods after YEARS of experimenting/testing/tweaking with a large BR, flat OR progression, great bet selection, playing 2-4 numbers max., perhaps tracking first etc., is the way to go, IMO.
If you want to go searching for a tilted wheel in 2011, go ahead, no person will stop you.
Ken
So you do track, which is a form of AP (your terms).
Therefore AP exists. Or you don't exist.
It's like the Babel fish never happened.
Quote: TheNightflyKen, for the record, do you believe that by tracking previous numbers on a roulette wheel that you will have a better idea of what numbers (or sections) are more (or less) likely to hit on future rolls?
I have done dozens of threads on this subject before, right or wrong. To answer you...YES, do you? Be careful, this is one of those 'set-up' questions. I'm a nice guy, I warned you first. lol
Ken
Quote: mrjjjI have done dozens of threads on this subject before, right or wrong. To answer you...YES, do you? Be careful, this is one of those 'set-up' questions. I'm a nice guy, I warned you first. lol
Ken
No warning necessary - it was just a question. You've answered yes. I say no.
Quote: mrjjjI have done dozens of threads on this subject before, right or wrong. To answer you...YES, do you? Be careful, this is one of those 'set-up' questions. I'm a nice guy, I warned you first. lol
Ken
Now another closely related question. If you do track rolls, and you think that doing so gives you some insight into what numbers (or sections) may be more (or less) likely to hit in the future, do you believe this gives you any kind of advantage over the casino? Do you believe that you are more likely to come out ahead by using this strategy?
If I listed 25 actuals from 00 wheel..... You can then bet 4 numbers (flat betting) for the next 13 spins.
You can either choose ANY 4, makes no difference OR
pick what 4 numbers you prefer. I would ask you WHY you picked those 4 numbers?
Ken
Quote: mrjjjWhat about this question/topic? >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/2799-past-numbers-have-nothing-to-do-with-future-events/
This thread only served to prove you either have no idea how the odds of the game work or you refuse to believe they apply to you and your method (cough).
Quote: mrjjjWhat about this question/topic? >>> https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/math/2799-past-numbers-have-nothing-to-do-with-future-events/
That topic merely illustrated that you hold a common misunderstanding about what "future" means. The future doesn't include the past, which is why a question like "what are the chances I will flip three heads in the next three flips" is different than "what are the chances I flip three heads if you count the two heads I just flipped and the one flip I'm doing next". The former is 1/8, the latter is 1/2. The misunderstanding leads people to believe that tracking number history at a roulette wheel to divine patterns can yield valuable information about the future. If the wheel is fair, it cannot.
Quote: TheNightflyThis thread only served to prove you either have no idea how the odds of the game work or you refuse to believe they apply to you and your method (cough).
Ok thats cool and the question in the next post?
Ken
Laughable, sorry, little troll.
Quote: mrjjjForget the challenge part of the last thread, I'll ask it a bit different.
If I listed 25 actuals from 00 wheel..... You can then bet 4 numbers (flat betting) for the next 13 spins.
You can either choose ANY 4, makes no difference OR
pick what 4 numbers you prefer. I would ask you WHY you picked those 4 numbers?
Ken
I don't play the game because I find it rather boring and too expensive. If you asked me to place 4 bets on 4 numbers I wouldn't look at the past numbers to influence my decision because the past numbers have no bearing on the future spins. If you asked me why I picked certain numbers I'd probably tell you that I chose them at random with no forethought.
Quote: TheNightflyI don't play the game because I find it rather boring and too expensive. If you asked me to place 4 bets on 4 numbers I wouldn't look at the past numbers to influence my decision because the past numbers have no bearing on the future spins. If you asked me why I picked certain numbers I'd probably tell you that I chose them at random with no forethought.
Keyser, myself (and quite a few more that won't post) disagree with you. I guess I might have to go back to the ORIGINAL question afterall. FUN!! I love it. I catch people ALL THE TIME being inconsistent with this question. ...."past numbers can not help you damn it" Oh wait wait, you didn't explain the question like that! lol
Ken
